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00:00Anthony Slater was on the morning roast today, and I thought he had some really interesting things to say.
00:05And let's start with this, because I do think this is where a lot of people's heads are right now,
00:10which is you want to look at a game one win on the road and just go,
00:16all right, this thing's cooked.
00:18And I know, like Stiney called me, the most disrespectful host of all of us here at 95.7 The Game.
00:25In terms of, well, let me finish.
00:28I'm not just the most disrespectful host.
00:30Oh, I thought he meant in general.
00:30With regard to the Rockets.
00:32Okay, sorry, my fault.
00:33With regard to the Rockets.
00:34And I'll wear that label.
00:35I have no problem with that.
00:38It's just a prediction.
00:40And we get things wrong all the time.
00:42We get things right all the time, whatever.
00:44I might be wrong on this one, too, but I don't, it's not a reaction to game one,
00:49because I kind of felt this before game one, which is that this matchup, it favors the Warriors.
00:54I don't really know.
00:55I mean, you love doing, Deep Dive Dibs has been doing a lot of history stuff lately.
01:00I mean, teams that are centered around a group of 22-year-olds, you don't advance in the playoffs.
01:06It's very rare.
01:07You advance, but you don't go deep, usually.
01:09How often do you even advance?
01:11I mean, they're not young.
01:12They're very, very young.
01:15You can Van Vliet and Dylan Brooks me all you want.
01:20The people who are going to score the basketball and decide this series are all 22.
01:26You lose almost all the time.
01:30And it's a compliment to where they are, that they are in this seat and this spot at this age.
01:36But to advance over people who, like, literally are almost like the basketball matrix with their brains is just so incredibly difficult.
01:46So, it's too early for all of this, but that's kind of the thing.
01:51I think a lot of people are asking, is it too early to start feeling like the Warriors have some sense of control of this series?
01:58So, underrating the Rockets, overrating the Rockets, listen to what Slates had to say.
02:04Yeah, I mean, look, their problem was their half-court offense.
02:0721st ranked in the league this year.
02:10They're a terror in transition.
02:12They do, you know, 22 offensive rebounds is a lot, but that's not outrageous for the Rockets.
02:18You know, they were easily the top offensive rebounding team in the league this year.
02:22So, they're going to keep doing that.
02:24They didn't turn the Warriors over enough, at least live ball-wise, right?
02:28A lot of the Warriors turnovers, like, pass out of bounds or some stuff like that.
02:32And even when they did turn them over, they just, their lack of offense didn't allow them to take advantage of it.
02:39But, you know, like, the Warriors still are struggling to score against the Rockets.
02:43That's two straight games.
02:44They haven't got to 100 points themselves.
02:46So, depends on, I mean, I guess the whole, are people now underestimating them?
02:51I mean, if you just think it's going to be an easy sweep and game two is going to be just like game one,
02:55yes, you probably are underestimating them.
02:58But, I think what you should have been concerned about on the Houston side entering the series
03:03and what, honestly, talking to Warriors people made them confident, was confirmed in game one.
03:08Half-court offense is a problem.
03:09No star scorers on the perimeter.
03:12Jalen Green, Fred Van Vliet, inefficient.
03:14And they win 95-85.
03:15Yeah, what he said there at the end to me is what I'm going to bed with tonight,
03:21which is that this is not, this is why I don't feel like reacting to game one is just reacting to one game.
03:29I hope everyone heard what Slates just said there at the end.
03:32What, we're not reacting to one game.
03:35We're reacting to one game that confirmed what the whole season told us.
03:40Houston's not good in the half-court.
03:42The Warriors are a very good half-court defensive team.
03:46If the Warriors cannot turn the ball over and get you in the half-court,
03:49the Rockets are very limited in how they can beat you.
03:53And so, we watched that all year long.
03:56And when you see it already in game one, which often that offers the best effort for the home team.
04:04They come out, the energy in the building is tremendous,
04:07you're rested, and you, bam, you give someone your best shot.
04:12And it turned into 85 points.
04:15Yep.
04:16Good God.
04:16How can you not be optimistic?
04:18Especially when you have 22 offensive rebounds and it turns into 22 offensive points.
04:23So, you only got 22 out of 22 offensive rebounds.
04:26And a lot of that was Steven Adams.
04:28And we're going to throw it out to Van Vliet, who isn't going to make it.
04:32And Green had a very bad shooting night as well.
04:34So, you're at home.
04:36And younger players should be better at home.
04:37That's why I think game two might be a bounce back.
04:40We'll find out tomorrow if that's actually the case.
04:42And maybe Eme Odoka sees what we all saw, which is, God, we have no shooting.
04:48And maybe he goes to other players on his bench who can actually shoot better than the guys he's putting out there.
04:54Wouldn't that give you Avery Johnson vibes, though?
04:56Not really.
04:57I know they're not the one seed and all that, and they're young.
05:00But if I'm Odoka and I lose one basketball game, the two seed, 52 wins, and then I'm out here reaching for people who didn't even crack my rotation in game one,
05:15it feels a little bit like a panic.
05:17Well, not quite.
05:18It depends on how much you lean on it.
05:19And Avery Johnson changed his starting lineup.
05:22And if I'm Eme Odoka and I look at what I put out there and I look at what I got out of them, which is 39% from the floor and 21% from three.
05:33And if this game is going to be more of a half-court game, well, then I need to have somebody who can be better in the half-court.
05:38Aaron Holiday is a guy who had a good game against the Warriors earlier this season in a game that, you know, the Rockets were, they didn't win it, but he had 25 in a game that the Warriors won 105-98.
05:50But you know why that happened?
05:52It's because they sat everybody.
05:53They sat everybody in the second half.
05:54Van Vliet didn't play, and they shut down the starters, but he's at least a guy who was able to get something going.
06:00Jock Landau can shoot the ball.
06:02Reed Shepard can shoot the ball.
06:03So if you want to get this into a half-court game, maybe you turn away from the big guy, Steven Adams, and maybe you turn to somebody who can actually knock down a three.
06:13See, my bet is Odoka does something with the people who are already on the floor that at least attempts to look a lot more like what we saw in the home game against the Rockets a couple of weeks ago.
06:29I think what he does is he tells those guys, look, I just want you to hound them.
06:34I want you to go crazy.
06:36I want you to put every bit of your energy on the defensive end into causing turnovers.
06:41Reak havoc.
06:42And if that means you get called for a couple fouls, then you get called for a couple fouls.
06:47But beat them up, push them around, grab them, do everything, create turnovers, see if you can frustrate them, and get us the ball going in transition.
06:57Because that's what you just heard Slate say.
06:59They're a nightmare in transition.
07:02They're fast, they're young, they're long, and they're finishers.
07:05And everything that they do well is around the rim, as we've already established.
07:11They do not shoot the ball well from outside.
07:13So the second they're running down the floor and the Warriors are back on defense ready for them,
07:18and they pull it back out and set up their offense, that's already a win.
07:22That's a win for Golden State.
07:24The second that the Rockets do that.
07:25So I would imagine at home and only game two, even though it's a desperate game,
07:31I'd be really surprised if he turned to people who are deep on his bench, person 9, 10, 11, and 12,
07:38to see if he could go win what is in effect the biggest game of their year.
07:42It's a big game, and I'm not saying you go to all of them,
07:44but you may want to spot somebody who could actually knock down a shot.
07:48You mentioned the game where they beat the Warriors here in Golden State,
07:52and Dylan Brooks was 10 of 13, and that was from the floor.
07:56And I know from three, he was like three of seven.
08:00I have it here, and he wasn't spectacular, but he was pretty good.
08:04But overall, he was really good.
08:06He was three of four from three.
08:08As a team, they were 10 for 30, which is not great.
08:11It's actually a little bit worse than what they normally are,
08:13but they were able to get, like you said, a lot of points in transition.
08:18Dylan Brooks, Jalen Green was 9 of 19.
08:20Amin Thompson was the Steph stopper.
08:23Curry only got three points, and so that game is a wild anomaly.
08:27Curry doesn't have a lot of those games in his 1,000-game registry in the association,
08:32so you could try and do that.
08:34And I think they probably will,
08:35but I do think that there's room for them to go and bring in Shepard
08:39or somebody else who can actually shoot the ball.
08:42It'll be interesting.
08:44If I'm the Warriors, and we'll ask Steve about this coming up in 15 minutes,
08:48Steve Kerr on with us live here on Willard and Dibs in 95.7, the game.
08:53I'll ask him what adjustments he expects the Rockets to make
08:57because the Warriors are no dummy.
08:58They've been through these playoff series,
09:00and they understand that when one punch gets thrown, the counterpunch comes.
09:04I wonder what he thinks the counterpunch is going to be.
09:08And in this particular case, it might actually be a punch.
09:12Nice.
09:12It might.
09:13It might.
09:14Like, that's what they did when they beat the Warriors.
09:18They just made it an absolute—
09:20They didn't punch anybody.
09:21No, but you know what I mean.
09:23Figuratively.
09:24Okay.
09:24Not literally.
09:25Like, they made it.
09:26They made it like you like to call it a rock fight.
09:29And I know that the other night was a little bit of a rock fight,
09:31which is kind of the problem for the Rockets.
09:33I see the Warriors as a team that can win multiple styles of basketball games.
09:38They can run with you.
09:39Look at what they've done when they've played Memphis in big games recently.
09:42They did it twice, the play-in game and the start of the gauntlet in Memphis,
09:46both of them pretty high-scoring basketball games.
09:49They'll run with Memphis.
09:50They beat them at their own game.
09:52Then they'll come to Houston and win a game where the over-under can be 185,
09:57and the under wins.
09:59You know what I mean?
10:00Like, that's the mark of, I think, a really dangerous team.
10:04And so they can do it multiple ways,
10:06and that's the equation that Udoka needs to solve.
10:09But I would expect the Rockets to have full energy,
10:12and for them, that means all the physicality they can bring.
10:16And so all eyes on you tomorrow night, actually,
10:20when you announce the officials' assignment,
10:24because I think this is a game for them.
10:26I really want to see what kind of tone they set,
10:30and I would predict, especially if the Rockets win,
10:33there's going to be all of those NBA conspiracy comments the next morning
10:36because people think that the NBA wants a longer series with more games.
10:40And that comes out tomorrow at 6 a.m.
10:42You can go to NBA Ref Assignments.
10:45Just Google that, and it will populate,
10:47and you can see exactly what's going to come.
10:49I'll tell you this.
10:50The over-under is 2-0-3-and-a-half.
10:532-0-3-and-a-hook, which,
10:56and I credit Evan Giddings on the pregame with Mark Grandy on Sunday.
10:59Evan was like, because Grandy said,
11:01all right, time for the pick.
11:02And Evan's like, I like the under.
11:04And I was like, damn.
11:05And I think that the under in that game was 2-10,
11:08or it was higher than 2-0-3-and-a-half for sure, yeah.
11:11I think it was 2-13-and-a-half.
11:13Even that high, wow, yeah.
11:14Not the lowest over-under of the playoff games won.
11:20I think the Celtics' magic over-under was 2-0-5.
11:24And the Celtics' magic tomorrow is 1-97-and-a-hook.
11:27There you go.
11:28Look at that.
11:29Sub-200?
11:30Sub-200.
11:31Wow.
11:31The magic can't score even more than the Rockets can't score.
11:36They can't score.
11:37Yeah.
11:38It's crazy.
11:38And by the way, what was the final score that Boston-Orlando game won?
11:44It was 1-0-3-86.
11:46There you go.
11:461-89 total.
11:48The under hits.
11:49Yeah.
11:49The under hits.
11:50A lot of unders.
11:51Yeah.
11:51Thunder Grizzlies, 2-11 total under.
11:54Oklahoma City will score that much by themselves.
11:57They had 1-31, and that game went under,
11:59which I always have said, and whatever, fade the divers, ha-ha-ha,
12:03but blowouts tend to go under like super blots because the one team—
12:08Yeah, because the other team leaves.
12:09Right, and they can't score to begin with.
12:11By the way, going back to that, because I know that game's tipping off.
12:13Is that the 4 o'clock game or the 4.30 game?
12:15I know we got—
12:16No, no, no, tonight.
12:17Bucs Pacers tonight at 4.
12:18Bucs Pacers starts in 12 minutes.
12:19Grizzlies thunder at 4.30.
12:21They start at 4.30.
12:22Yeah.
12:22So we'll watch Bucs Pacers with Steve Kerr.
12:24That'll be fun.
12:25But anyway, the Grizzlies, they are much—
12:28I know you said they only had one night off, but you're right.
12:31It was a Sunday morning game, number one.
12:33And number two, they didn't play in the fourth quarter.
12:36Like, they did not play a lot of minutes in that basketball game.
12:40So I do—you're going to get a better Grizzly effort tonight.
12:45I don't think it'll be enough.
12:47I don't think it'll be enough at all.
12:49But yeah, the over-under stuff is interesting.
12:52Because I do think the Warriors can win multiple styles.
12:55But if the refs—if you get a really physical game and you get refs who want to keep it under control,
13:03the quickest way to hit an over is for both teams to start parading to the free-throw line.
13:09And I think that there will be more free-throws in Game 2 than there was in Game 1.
13:16Because it was still kind of a below-average free-throw night, was it not?
13:20I believe so.
13:21For the whole game.
13:22Yeah, the Warriors shot 14 and the Rockets shot 20.
13:27So 34 total is a little bit below the average.
13:29Didn't you say the average is high 30s?
13:31Yeah.
13:32Okay.
13:33I'll take the over on that tomorrow night.
13:36I'll take the over 38.5 on free-throws attempted in the game.
13:40And it doesn't necessarily mean that the Rockets will win as a result.
13:44No.
13:44And I go back to the first game of the year where the Warriors shot 50 free-throws,
13:48the Rockets shot 24, and the Warriors won in overtime.
13:52The Rockets are a bad free-throw shooting team.
13:55They're just a bad shooting team.
13:57I don't care where the hell they're shooting from.
13:59This is a thumbnail sketch of the Rockets.
14:00They're not good at shooting the three.
14:03They're okay at shooting the two.
14:05And they're not good at shooting free-throws.
14:06They're really good at defending.
14:09And they're good in transition.
14:10And they're great at rebounding.
14:11And they're great at rebounding.
14:13Right.
14:13Great at rebounding.
14:14And they're used to rebounding because they don't make a lot of shots.
14:17And I guess you get a lot of offensive rebounds when you miss a lot of shots.
14:20That's actually funny.
14:21Wouldn't that make sense?
14:22Yes, it would.
14:24Yes.
14:24And when you miss them terribly.
14:26Air balls.
14:27Right.
14:27One of the barely-tick iron.
14:28Balls are flying out.
14:29Yeah.
14:29What'd you have, Grandy?
14:31The Rockets have scored 93 points or fewer four times this year,
14:35if you include the playoffs.
14:36Three of them versus the Warriors.
14:38Ooh.
14:39Yep.
14:41Yeah.
14:42And that's interesting.
14:43They're one and two in those games.
14:45Yes.
14:45They won one of them.
14:4791 to 90 was the game that they won.
14:48And the only one they won was...
14:50A game they won.
14:51And they've played the Warriors.
14:51It was a game they won.
14:52Yes.
14:53They've played the Warriors six times this year.
14:55The Warriors have held them under 104 of those six times.
14:59Including game one.
15:00I thought you said that they only did it three times.
15:02Well, that's 93 or fewer.
15:05Oh, 93 or fewer.
15:05They've done that four times this year.
15:07The Warriors have been the opponent three of those four times.
15:09The other was the Boston Celtics.
15:11So what does that tell you?
15:12But they've scored under 100 versus the Warriors in four of the six matchups versus the Warriors.
15:16What does that tell you?
15:18The Warriors have the answer to their offense.
15:20Warriors, okay.
15:21You say, what does that tell you?
15:22It tells me that the Warriors are a really good defense and Houston struggles against really good defenses.
15:28So if the Warriors are even decent on their offensive game, they're going to win.
15:35And if you look at these games that Grandy's referencing, the 91 to 90 game, the Warriors shot 44% from the field and they had 22 turnovers.
15:43Warriors, you lose, Warriors, but you only lost by one.
15:47By one.
15:47And again, it was the play that drove Steve Kerr nuts.
15:51The foul on the scramble 80 feet from the basket.
15:56The Warriors were up by one with two seconds left to go.
15:59And they gave a couple of free throws to Houston for diving on the floor on the other side of the court.
16:04Whether it was a foul or not, not the point.
16:06They usually do not make that call.
16:08They usually do not make that call.
16:10Especially when he's clearly asking for timeout.
16:12It's just so much easier to give him the timeout.
16:15Tell you what, though.
16:16When you say the Warriors are a really good defensive team, a couple of the games we're referencing was when the Warriors were not a very good defensive team.
16:23The Warriors are a top five defensive team once Jimmy Butler arrived.
16:26They weren't before that.
16:28They were very, very early in the season.
16:30And I know some of their games against the Rockets were very early in the season.
16:34But through that run of kind of December and January, the Warriors were not a great defensive team.
16:41Yet, largely, they were able to hold the Rockets at least down around 100.
16:47Even the game where the Rockets came charging back, like, the numbers are skewed because it went to overtime.
16:54Yep.
16:54But, like, whatever it is, and maybe this is why all the Warriors, I don't know if you've all noticed this, the Warriors coaches and players, they kind of got a Cheshire cat look to them right now.
17:07And I can tell they're trying to hide it, but you can't hide it 24 hours a day.
17:11And for those of you who don't know what I'm referencing, dude, they look like the cat who ate the canary.
17:19It's as if they know they're winning this series and they just don't want to tell anybody because you're not supposed to say that out loud.
17:26But when Moses Moody is on our air being like, essentially indicating we're the better team,
17:31I thought Steve Kerr last week, when he started referencing what's going to happen in round one and then round two and then round three,
17:40I was like, wow.
17:42And he made that comment, we know we have what we need now.
17:45With four days rest, we know we have what we need to win this series.
17:49He wasn't predicting, they weren't being cocky, but the Warrior confidence, they can't bottle it up.
17:56It's just oozing out of them right now in this particular series.
18:00So maybe they do have whatever the elixir is to the Houston Rockets.
18:04Well, I do think that unless you have a Houston team that somehow comes up with something that they haven't had very often,
18:11which is an offensive hot night.
18:14And you mentioned the game where they came storming back the first time these teams met.
18:18They were down by 31 late in the second quarter, 71 to 40.
18:23And in the second half, Houston shot 57% from the floor.
18:26The Warriors shot 36%.
18:28All of a sudden, Houston's got a one-point lead.
18:31There was no curry in that game.
18:33And Houston, in the second half, went on one of those heaters where they were awesome.
18:38The Warriors could not score.
18:40And all of a sudden, 18 became 14, which became 9.
18:43And oh my goodness, now we've got a ball game.
18:46And it took overtime to win it.
18:47But it took Houston having an otherworldly half just to get back into that game.
18:53And they still lost.
18:54And they lost.
18:56Maybe it will be a sweep.
18:59Yeah.
19:00I don't know.
19:01I mean, I'm just trying to take people off.
19:03I mean, I'm here for it.
19:05I mean, maybe.
19:07Maybe.
19:10I do think that the Warriors were.
19:12Stand on it.
19:12Yeah, no.
19:13You win tomorrow night.
19:15And this thing's going to be fast.
19:16Stand on what you say.
19:17I just said.
19:18Stand on what you do.
19:19Well, you can't see what I'm doing.