The International Monetary Fund is cutting its forecast for global economic growth in 2025, with most big economies to suffer amid a brewing trade war between the U.S. and other countries.
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00:00At a port in southern China, stacks of shipping containers filled with Chinese goods await export.
00:05But some of those destined for the United States are in limbo.
00:09U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened tariffs of 145% on Chinese imports,
00:14part of a sweeping tariff policy that's put U.S. import duties at their highest in a century.
00:19This mounting trade war has sent the number of U.S.-bound cargo ships from the world's largest exporter plummeting.
00:25Now, the International Monetary Fund says the global economy is going to pay a price.
00:30Its prediction for global economic growth this year is down from 3.3% to 2.8%.
00:36And the U.S., along with most other countries, will suffer.
00:40The growth forecast for China, a chief target of Trump's tariffs, is now down 0.6% from January.
00:46But the IMF expects U.S. growth will be almost a whole percentage point lower than it was in January.
00:52And the organization says it could change again.
00:55This is just a reference in an unpredictable time.
00:59But there is also the increased uncertainty.
01:02And the increased uncertainty, which is related to the fact that no one is able to tell where things will settle eventually,
01:09means businesses are pausing investment or purchases, and that's weighing down an activity that could continue.
01:17And Trump's actions are a big reason for the unpredictability.
01:20And one of the biggest uncertainties is how high his tariffs will be.
01:24For now, the threatened 145% tariff on China appears to be on hold, as Trump suggests a deal could bring it down.
01:32145% is very high, and it won't be that high.
01:36It's not going to be that high.
01:38It got up to there.
01:39We were talking about fentanyl, where, you know, various elements built it up to 145.
01:45No, it won't be anywhere near that high.
01:48With only a few exceptions, most of the world's biggest economies stand to lose, according to the IMF's calculations.
01:55And while its chief economist says there's no need for concern over the international monetary system,
02:00the outcome of this global trade war is impossible to tell.
02:03Klein Wang and John Van Trieste for Taiwan Plus.