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00:00Yeah, well, I'm going to, because I do like both of these lineups per se,
00:02but against this pitching matchup, which makes it interesting,
00:04because we just talked about Dylan Cease, right?
00:06That high ERA and a really high whip rate of 1.5.
00:10You take a look at Frambois Valdez, 22 innings pitched this season so far.
00:13Look at the ERA also, approaching five.
00:15But if I have him on my card today with the XFIP numbers, which I love,
00:18he's fifth out of 30, which means a 3.20 XFIP number and a fifth number of 3.39.
00:24So it's another one of those where it's like, okay, the ERA is high,
00:27but it shouldn't be that high.
00:29And we'll see if some of those numbers come down, and two pedigree pitchers nonetheless.
00:32So if we're handicapped in this game, Tom, 9.29, 9.30 in the rotation,
00:36a 7.10 start tonight is the Sunday night baseball game.
00:38You look at the total, open up at 7.5.
00:40Hasn't moved at all, still sitting at 7.5.
00:43Look at the line itself, right around a minus 125 overnight.
00:46Most outlets, minus 125 to minus 30.
00:49So that hasn't changed here.
00:50If we look at some of the markets here just with who is betting which way,
00:54the money line numbers speak.
00:55About 65% of them coming in on San Diego as the slight underdog tonight in this game.
01:01Do you agree that the betting public's like, you know what?
01:03An underdog price would cease in San Diego.
01:05I'll take that.
01:07Absolutely agree with that.
01:08Cease and the Padres come away with the win.
01:10They avoid being swept.
01:12And I think we're going to see more offense than people anticipate.
01:15And I'm expecting it to come from the Padres side of things versus lefties this year,
01:19the Padres offense, that is.
01:21They have a 17.5% striker rate, the third lowest in the league.
01:25They have a 150 ISO.
01:26They have a 106 WRC+.
01:28They're looking good, despite not having my guy Jackson Merrill,
01:32who I desperately want back in the lineup.
01:34They're awesome.
01:35I know Bogarts hasn't been the same player he was over the past few weeks.
01:38It's been a slow week for him.
01:39But you give me the top of that lineup with Tatis, Luisa Rice, Manny Machado,
01:44you want to throw in a Gavin Sheets in there, and then a Xander Bogarts.
01:47I think the offense is going to be there.
01:49I think that Valdez is a good pitcher.
01:51And the XFIP numbers do suggest that he will continue to be better than he currently is.
01:55But he's not a dominant strikeout pitcher.
01:57I see some runs, not necessarily from home runs, though.