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00:00But the race that we're going to talk about in our first segment is actually a win-and-you're-in qualifying race for the Preakness.
00:07So whoever wins this race, the Federico Tessio on Saturday at Laurel Park, will earn a spot in the Preakness four weeks from now.
00:14Here's a look at the field. It is a huge day of racing at Laurel Park.
00:19They have a big late pick five sequence, some really good stakes races, David, and I thought this was an interesting group.
00:25So for this show, we'll talk about Laurel Park. In segment two, we'll talk about a couple races from Keeneland.
00:31In segment three, the Oaklawn Handicap, which is a big race for older horses, coming up this weekend.
00:37David, let's meet the field for the Federico Tessio.
00:40And shout out to Italian guys, because this is one of the all-time great Italian breeders out there that the race is named after.
00:46It will start with the number one, Surfside Moon.
00:49David, he's coming off a really good effort most recently up at Aqueduct.
00:54And usually the circuits, the horses that are running in New York, just facing a little bit tougher company than some of the horses that might be running down at Laurel Park.
01:04So I think just in that sense, he's coming out of one of the better races and using some of the ratings that we have.
01:10He's one of the higher rated horses off that race.
01:13He feels like he's in a pretty good spot here at Surfside Moon.
01:16Yeah, this is a horse that I've had some affinity for.
01:19He was actually one of my sleeper Kentucky Derby candidates going all the way back to the beginning of the season when he finished second in the Withers, an early Kentucky Derby prep last time.
01:27He got a temperature after that.
01:28The trainer had to back off.
01:30So this is kind of plan B now, running in this prep for the pre-fest stakes.
01:34But he certainly fits against this field based purely on the last race.
01:37It was a huge improvement from his two-year-old to three-year-old season.
01:41But horses grew up a little bit over the wintertime.
01:43They can make those big jumps forward in their form.
01:45And it looks like that's the case for Surfside Moon.
01:47The number two is named Right Wing Runner.
01:50He comes off of a second-place finish.
01:52That was the first time he went a little bit longer.
01:55He looked really tired in that race late there.
01:58I'm expecting he'll be the type of horse who's going to be forwardly placed.
02:01If you look at the pace projections, he'll probably be one of the closer horses early on.
02:06I'm just not quite sure about him late, David.
02:08He looked like he was getting really tired there.
02:10Yeah, the distance of this race, one and one-eighth miles, it's going to be a real test of stamina for a lot of these horses.
02:16And it feels like the number two Right Wing Runner is included among those.
02:19As you said, he just looked really tired trying a longer distance for the first time in his last race.
02:24And he's going to have to run the best race of his career to be competitive with this group.
02:27Arcadian, the number three, he's coming into this race off a couple races on paper that don't look great at first glance.
02:34I think a lot of people might look at this horse and kind of dismiss him because his last race, he was fifth-beaten eight lengths.
02:41And prior to that, he was fifth-beaten 22 lengths.
02:43But I know you kind of like this horse a little bit as a long shot, and you can make some excuses for those races.
02:49Yeah, I'm just kind of intrigued by his connections, apparent faith in him, because he was running in some claiming races early in his career.
02:55Claiming races are those where all the horses are for sale, and you can buy horses out of the race.
03:00His prior connections lost him for $20,000, and then two starts later, repurchased him out of a claiming race for $50,000.
03:06And now they're running him in two stakes races in a row.
03:09So his form doesn't look quite as good as some others in here, but I feel like he might have a better effort coming in this race.
03:15Bull Diversion is one of the longer shots in this field.
03:18He's just stepping way up in class based on who he's been facing recently.
03:22Do you think he can compete with this group?
03:24He has been running well.
03:26As the distances get longer last time out, he did win a race around two turns.
03:30Like, this one will be run, but it was against much weaker competition, so he's going to have to do better.
03:34The number five Kentucky outlaw is one of the real wild cards in the race, David, because he's run twice.
03:40Both of his wins have been really easy victories, and they've basically been right on the front end in races
03:46where he's been able to kind of dictate things, and he hasn't been really pushed early on in those races.
03:52This is going to be much, much tougher for him now.
03:55He's going to be a bigger field.
03:56He's going to have to deal with some other speed and just a lot classier caliber of horse overall.
04:01How do you kind of think he stacks up with this group?
04:04Yeah, his early speed is definitely what makes him dangerous here.
04:07You can see he's shown on a clear lead in that early pace projection in the upper right-hand graphic,
04:12and he does look like he's got the speed to get way out in front of this field early.
04:16We'll see if he can go the distance against a field of this quality because he's been impressive in both victories so far,
04:22but he's done it against some weaker foes, so this is going to be a real class test for him.
04:26The number six, Studley Do-Right, he's won a couple big races throughout his career,
04:31but he was one of these horses, David, that was kind of precocious early on in his career.
04:36He seemed like it didn't take him a whole lot to get onto the track and figure things out.
04:40I don't know how much he's really progressed from last year to this year,
04:44but he does have one of the better overall resumes of this group.
04:48Do you think he is a player in here, and what are you expecting from him on Saturday?
04:52Yeah, this is a horse that I've sort of had a love-hate relationship with following his career
04:56because you can see that there's a lot of ability there, but he's just so inconsistent from race to race.
05:02His best efforts, such as his victory in the Nashua going back to last November
05:06or when he won the Tremont going back to last summer in New York,
05:10those kinds of performances could potentially put him in the winner's circle against a field like this.
05:14The problem is he's done that twice in 10 career starts, and more often, especially more recently,
05:20he's just been running some subpar efforts.
05:22So he's a little hard to trust.
05:23The next one is the number seven, Sacred Thunder.
05:27He's been pretty honest overall.
05:29He's just not necessarily a win machine in his last five or six races,
05:33but he rarely runs a bad race, David, and he has a little bit of versatility to him.
05:38I could see this being like an under-exotics horse.
05:41I'm just not quite sure if he has the step-up-and-win effort in him.
05:45What do you think about Sacred Thunder?
05:47Yeah, this would be a really nice horse to have in your barn if you're an owner or a trainer
05:50because he runs every three to four weeks, puts forth the same kind of effort every time,
05:56usually picks up a check.
05:57He's been, I think, in the money in 11 of his 12 races, first, second, or third.
06:01So he continues to do well, but he's competing against a slightly tougher field than he's been facing in recent starts here,
06:07and he's one that has to prove that he can keep getting better as the distances get longer because he'll need to.
06:12As gamblers, sometimes we're all a little happily delusional, and happily delusional is a great name for a horse, David.
06:20He comes off of a runner-up effort last time out.
06:23He was second behind the number five Kentucky Outlaw, just a lot faster than him early on.
06:29So happily delusional is probably hoping that they go really fast early in this race.
06:34That would set him up to come running late.
06:36Yeah, he's the horse that's just been well-beaten by a couple of rivals that he faces here.
06:40You mentioned Kentucky Outlaw, two races back.
06:43He was beaten by a right-wing runner who were not really confident as necessarily a contender in this race.
06:47So he's just going to have to really improve on his prior form to beat a field like this.
06:51I think the next horse is a major, major player, the number nine, Pay Billy.
06:55You go through his last four races, David, he's a nosebeat away from being four for four during that stretch.
07:03He's won a stakes race most recently in the private terms.
07:07And he has the running style where he wants to be close, but he showed us that he can sit off a little bit and pass horses.
07:14So I just expect him to be in the mix throughout.
07:16I think this is a really good spot for a horse who just seems to be improving at the right time.
07:21Yeah, we talked about the number seven, Sacred Thunder, being a really good yardstick for this field.
07:26Well, Pay Billy has easily beaten him the last couple of times, so those feel like legitimate performances.
07:31And he's a nose shy from having won four races in a row.
07:35And in that one loss, you can tell he really didn't want to lose that race.
07:38He was babbling back all the way to the finish line.
07:40So this horse certainly knows how to get the job done.
07:43And then we round out the field with the 10, just a fair shake.
07:46David, this is a really honest horse.
07:48If you're looking at his ratings, they are kind of a cut below, but he's very, very solid in his three races so far.
07:56And I think he might be a nice horse down the line.
07:59This is a tough spot, but I could use him underneath in like the third and four spots if you're looking for a fun long shot to complete some of your exotics.
08:07Give us some quick thoughts on the 10, just a fair shake.
08:09Yeah, he's a horse that showed some ability during his two-year-old season last year.
08:13He came back off the break last time and ran pretty well.
08:17He won the race against weaker competition.
08:19He looked a little unfocused through the stretch, so he's going to have to run a more complete race this time.
08:23He's just drawn in a really tough post position because he's drawn 10 of 10 furthest away from the rail, and they go right into that bend at Laurel.
08:30So he's got to avoid losing ground going into that turn.
08:33As we move to selections here, you can see how David is going to stack him up in this race with the one on top of the nine.