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00:00Yeah, we're going to take a look at those, but also yesterday, my guy James Wood, long ball, Josh Bell, long ball.
00:05You got some power bats there for the Nationals here.
00:07And also, that second game does have a little bit more intrigue than the first game for me
00:11because it looks like it's going to be Lord and Sensatella, and maybe we could get some runs here.
00:15But as Tom pointed out, extra baseball, nobody ever says no to that here.
00:18But let's get started with some extra baseball, apparently here in Arizona and Cleveland.
00:22Cleveland, excuse me, in Chicago.
00:24That's Kelly and Tyone on the mound, 905-906, a 220 start.
00:28This line opened up as about a minus 120 favorite here towards the Cubs.
00:31It's higher now, as high as minus 145.
00:34The total of this game, seven and a half, sevens, seven and a half, depending where you're shopping right now,
00:39which is interesting because it's Wrigley.
00:40That just means one thing, Tom.
00:42The wind is blowing in, and temperatures are cooler today, but also rain in the forecast.
00:47Let's start here because we're going to review what happened already in the series between these two.
00:51But when you hear wind blowing in, is it an ultimate no for you right off the bat
00:55in betting for player props, or you don't worry about that as much at Wrigley?
01:00I worry about it at Wrigley more than the app, like wind blowing.
01:04It can be 60 degrees in both spots, but if there's wind blowing in, there's data that shows historically
01:09that Wrigley is affected by wind more than the average ballpark,
01:12even if they worry of the exact same mile per hour wind.
01:15So I immediately am hesitant on Wrigley wind blowing in, especially when it's cold,
01:19especially when there's going to be rain as in today.
01:21But even if all things were neutral, then it comes out to the pitchers, right?
01:26And Merrill Kelly is a pitcher that a lot of people have had faith in,
01:29but I really haven't over the course of his career.
01:32He's got a 515 XFIP this year, and it's dramatically worse than what we saw from over the past few years.
01:38The strikeouts can be there.
01:39I know he put up a ton of strikeouts against the Marlins.
01:41That doesn't necessarily impress me.
01:43And now we're going up against one of the best offenses in the league with the Cubs.
01:47So I'm out on Kelly.
01:48I'm also always been out on James and Tyone, a pitcher that just gets hit around a lot.
01:53May never give up a ton of home runs, which may not happen today with the wind blowing in,
01:56but the Arizona offense is also great.
01:59So despite the low total and despite the weather, I actually do like some production today.