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00:00Well, we have the potential for some severe storms across southern Minnesota today,
00:03followed by a cold front sweeping through tonight, a cooler, windy Friday.
00:07Sunshine is back Saturday with more rain possible by the end of the day Sunday.
00:20So we have a slight risk, level two out of five of severe weather.
00:24First time this season we've really seen this large of a chunk of the state
00:27and a slight risk for severe storms right up to the south metro
00:31with a marginal risk right through the Twin Cities, almost up to St. Cloud.
00:35We've got a pretty potent low pressure center just to the west of the Twin Cities
00:40and a lot of clouds filling in ahead of this warm front as dew points increase.
00:45So that could be a hindrance to some of our severe potential here later today.
00:49You want as much sun as possible to mix up the atmosphere as much as possible.
00:54These are forecast soundings from the high resolution rapid refresh model,
00:57which is maybe a little too warm.
00:59It's got us in the mid-70s by 3 p.m., but pay attention to the dew point.
01:02That's 49 at that point, and that's going to be key.
01:06We're going to need more moisture in order to destabilize the atmosphere.
01:09As you add more water to the lower atmosphere,
01:11that allows a parcel of air to become more buoyant to produce thunderstorms.
01:15And some of the models do have those dew points reaching the low 60s,
01:19which would be adequate moisture.
01:20But the most spin in the atmosphere to produce rotating updrafts,
01:25tornadoes, really are going to be across Nebraska and Iowa.
01:28We'll have enough to generate maybe an isolated tornado here in southern Minnesota,
01:32but really the significant tornado parameter is much higher across Iowa
01:36with just pretty low values here in southern Minnesota,
01:39at least in this particular model.
01:41But all in all, when you look at all the different dynamics and indices together,
01:45Iowa and Nebraska looking more favorable.
01:47But we will see some severe weather potentially in southern Minnesota.
01:50Supercell index is enough to create some stronger storms.
01:53The biggest threat is going to be probably hail for us
01:55and maybe an isolated wind gust in southern Minnesota.
01:58But enough instability.
01:59This is 3 o'clock this afternoon.
02:01But again, it's all dependent on sunshine and those higher dew points.
02:04And this is really lining up with where that finger of higher dew points develops this afternoon.
02:08That'll be the sort of key indicator for instability.
02:11And we can also look at the updraft helicity tracks.
02:14Basically, updraft tracks, those are more intense across Iowa.
02:17Though we do have some stronger cells potentially with some of those updraft tracks here
02:21in south central Minnesota too.
02:23So we've got that slight risk, isolated tornado risk, 2%.
02:26But again, highest here right around the Omaha area.
02:30But a pretty large percentage probability here for hail.
02:3315% category there and maybe some isolated wind gusts.
02:36So as far as timing goes, storms could pop here right in the mid-afternoon time frame.
02:40This is 3 p.m.
02:42And then more storms kind of filling in in a line here ahead of that cold front.
02:46This is 7 p.m.
02:47And then those storms will continue to track to the east.
02:49Then we'll largely get a break late in the night into the morning tomorrow.
02:52But we're going to see kind of a secondary wave of energy come through
02:56producing just rain showers by tomorrow evening.
02:59And yes, that's snow.
03:00Again, you see in northern Minnesota.
03:02It doesn't look significant, but probably some snow showers tomorrow night
03:05into early Saturday for the northern part of the state.
03:08It will stay warm enough for liquid here.
03:11But then another system is coming through Sunday.
03:13That will bring another chance of showers by the evening.
03:15Most of the days should be dry.
03:16And then that will pull out of here Monday.
03:18But then we'll be watching to the west for another system to come through here
03:21Tuesday into Tuesday night.
03:23So kind of an active pattern here over the next several days.
03:26But a break for the most part for the bulk of the weekend.
03:29Especially Saturday should be sunny.
03:31A little cooler than normal by a few degrees, but not bad.
03:3455.
03:35Sunday closer to 60.
03:37Clouds will increase.
03:38And again, by the evening we'll see some showers.
03:40But for most of the day it should be dry.
03:43And then warmer temperatures next week, even with those chances of rain showers
03:46moving back in here Monday and then again later Tuesday into Tuesday night.
03:50Good night.
03:51Good night.
03:57Good night.