Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00Paul Skeens after his worst start, at least based on amount of earned runs given up last
00:06Tuesday, five of them for Skeens.
00:09He is on the bump again today for the Pirates back home in Pittsburgh, taken on the Nats.
00:16Minus 220 for the Pirates to win this game on the money line.
00:20What do you think we get out of Skeens on Skeens Day 27 in the history of Major League
00:25Baseball?
00:26Yeah, Nats let me down a little bit yesterday.
00:27Four and a half and plus 100 number for the team total.
00:31They got the four runs.
00:31You should have 10 runs in that game, but it's the Nationals that you bet.
00:34So buy your beware sometimes.
00:36Let's understand this.
00:37We're early in the season.
00:38Today, I have 20 pitchers on the card that we're going to be rating.
00:42And take a look at this.
00:43Number one on the card with XFIT minus, that's Paul Skeens at 58.
00:47Baseline is 100.
00:48So he's below.
00:49He's at 58.
00:50Unbelievable.
00:51Brad Lord, a 133, Ben.
00:53The exact opposite.
00:54He's the worst pitcher on the card based on XFIT minus.
00:56But here's also the analysis that we love.
00:59Paul Skeens' ERA, 3.44.
01:01You take a look at Brad Lord's ERA, 1.80.
01:04So something has to give today if you're trusting the analytics on this early season.
01:07You figure it's Brad Lord, which is good.
01:09Because most people look at the same, like, minus 220.
01:11That's really high.
01:12Skeens just got beat up.
01:13The Pirates can't hit.
01:14I get you here.
01:15But if there's one guy that they're supposed to hit early in the season, it's probably going
01:18to be Brad Lord.
01:19You take a look at the game time temperatures, 65 degrees.
01:22Some rain in the forecast, but a wind blowing out lightly to eight miles per hour in left
01:26field.
01:26That's always going to help.
01:27The lineup itself doesn't ensure a lot of active at-bats for the Pirates.
01:31But again, you're trusting.
01:32They're not going up against a dominant starting pitcher.
01:35He's on the road and maybe should get to him.
01:36If we take a look at Skeens on the opposite side, you do have some good statistics here
01:40from that Washington Nationals lineup.
01:42But good luck with this.
01:43Like, you can look at Skeens last year.
01:44He was fantastic.
01:45And I just told you, the ERA is 3.44.
01:48A lot of pitchers would love that.
01:49His XFIP number is 2.25, elite.
01:52His XFIP minus, 58.
01:54That is absolutely elite.
01:56So when you take a look at his statistics this year going up against, analytically, ISO,
02:000.60 against.
02:01Weighted on base percentage, 2.03 against.
02:03K rate combined, about 29%.
02:05He should mow down this lineup.
02:08So if they do deserve to be a heavy favorite, maybe today is the day.
02:11But also, if you expect them to win, it might be 2-1, 3-1.
02:14But I got to tell you, a sneaky team total that's not based on the actual numbers for
02:19the Pirates, but based on what the anticipation of the pitcher coming to town is, maybe the
02:23Pirates team total might not be bad.
02:25Because what do you want to do, Ben?
02:26You want to get that number, let's just say, a 4-ish?
02:28Or do you want to say, I want to lay 220 when the 4-ish number is like a minus 110?
02:33See where I'm going?
02:33See where I'm going?
02:39See where I'm going?
02:40See where I'm going.