Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00Let's talk about Keeneland this weekend, Saturday.
00:02Race number nine is the grade three Lexington, and we can meet the field starting with the number one, Hard as Life.
00:08Now, this horse is actually going to be running on the dirt surface for the first time, Alexa.
00:13He's actually run previously on the grass and on synthetic surfaces,
00:17so it's not an easy spot to try a surface for the first time when you're facing other stakes horses.
00:23What do you think about the one Hard as Life?
00:24It's a really ambitious placement.
00:27I mean, so from a pedigree standpoint, I think the dirt can make sense,
00:31but his siblings haven't had wild success on dirt.
00:35His mom was a turf runner.
00:37Like you said, broke his maiden, so won his first race on the turf at Churchill last fall,
00:42but has been well beaten in his only stakes attempt so far.
00:45So I think this is a really tough spot.
00:48The number two bracket buster would have been a hunch play for a lot of college basketball fans
00:53just a few weeks ago with the brackets out.
00:55This is an interesting horse to me, Alexa, because if you look at the last time he raced,
01:00it was in October of 2024.
01:02He was in a race behind some really nice horses.
01:05The top three finishers, Sovereignty, came back and won a big race,
01:10the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream.
01:12We saw Sovereignty.
01:13He was listed as the second betting choice if the derby were to be run today.
01:17Tiztastic was in that race.
01:19He came back and won the Louisiana Derby at Fairgrounds.
01:22Sandman was also in that race, and he came back.
01:25He won the Arkansas Derby.
01:27That was a loaded race bracket buster comes out of.
01:30Yeah, it was.
01:31That was such a productive race.
01:32So, I mean, from that standpoint, maybe you have some upside.
01:35But for me, I'm really wary of this.
01:38So, the 167-day layoff, his trainer is 0 for 47 in long layoffs,
01:46an overall 2% winning trainer.
01:48So, for me, I'm like, eh, I'm probably going to hold on.
01:51Yeah, and it's a great point, too, because you look at things that each athlete
01:55has a skill set in basketball, in football, in baseball.
01:59The same can be said for jockeys or for trainers, things that they do well
02:02or things that they kind of struggle with for a lot of trainers.
02:05Go ahead.
02:06I don't even mean they're a bad trainer.
02:08Some trainers like to use a race to get their horse into shape
02:11instead of getting them into shape, you know, in workouts before.
02:14So, sometimes it's just their style of training.
02:17I think most trainers need a race or two because it's really hard
02:20to get your horses ready to run just working out in the morning
02:23without those races that build up their fitness level.
02:26It's the same thing with sports.
02:28Like, you can't replicate game for practice.
02:31You just can't.
02:32The same sort of intensity and what happens in those games.
02:35So, for the conversation in this race, too, Alexa,
02:38as we continue moving through the field,
02:40we're going to have a couple of horses scratch out of this race
02:42because they ran earlier in the week.
02:44Bullard is not one of them.
02:45Bullard will be running, and he feels like a major player in here.
02:48He is already a graded stakes winner,
02:50but he's going to have to run a little bit farther than he's ever run before.
02:54What do you think about Bullard's chances?
02:56So, Bullard was supposed to run in the Rebel to get his shot at the Derby
02:59but got sick.
03:00So, that's kind of a bummer.
03:02You know, they missed their shot at the Derby,
03:04so now they're probably pointing towards Preakness.
03:06Like you said, first time stretching out beyond seven furlongs.
03:10Eight furlongs is a mile, by the way.
03:11So, horse racing, we do different distance measurements.
03:14But so, first time going a mile.
03:17And I like him a lot.
03:19I think he's fresh.
03:20I think he's shown talent.
03:21I do think the distance is like a question.
03:23But I think he's a really logical contender.
03:26They did spend $675,000 on this horse as a yearling.
03:30So, they had really high expectations for him.
03:32The number four, Rolando, raced earlier in the week.
03:35So, we can kind of skip over him because he won't be running in this one.
03:38Native Runner is the next one.
03:40He showed a lot more positional speed in his most recent race.
03:43It was a nice win, and he's put back-to-back wins together.
03:46Can you make a case for him?
03:47I can.
03:48I like him a lot.
03:49I mean, you've got the morning line at 15-1 odds or plus $1,500.
03:52So, that's a super juicy price.
03:54Coming off those two straight wins, he's shown constant improvement.
03:57He's in really nice form.
03:59I think even though this is a big step up in class, you know, just from his progression,
04:04I think he's a really nice long shot play.
04:07Towards the outside of the field, a couple major players.
04:09First up, Gosker.
04:11He won, and he broke his maiden in his second start.
04:14That was his first career win.
04:15It was really, really good.
04:17I love the way he showed improvement there, Alexa.
04:20And if he can build off of that race, I think he's right there with the top contenders.
04:24What did you think about Gosker?
04:26I like Gosker a lot.
04:27So, if you look at the pace projector on the screen, you see that favors front runners with icicles on it.
04:31That just means the pace isn't going to be overwhelmingly fast in the race, most likely.
04:35So, whoever's on the lead is going to have a bit of a pace advantage in here.
04:39And you see the six is most likely going to be the leader.
04:42So, I think from a pace standpoint, he's got an edge.
04:47Prater, the number seven, he's raced three times in his career, and he's won two of them.
04:51And in one of those wins, he beat Sovereignty, who's going to be one of the Kentucky Derby betting favorites in here.
04:57What do you think about Prater and his chances?
04:59Yeah, he's a very proven, classy horse.
05:03Again, going to be probably pretty forwardly placed, as you can see on that pace projector.
05:07He's reuniting with Flavian Pratt, his jockey, who was aboard for his first win.
05:12So, a lot of upside there, just not a lot of value.
05:14And then, to round out the field, will be Hypness, the number eight, because the touch he ran earlier in the week.
05:20So, Hypness will be the last one.
05:21Hypness is really interesting, Alexa, because I think he has a lot of talent, but he doesn't have a lot of early speed.
05:27His running style hurts him a little bit, because he ends up so far back, he gets in trouble, he gets in traffic, but they made an equipment change.
05:36They're going to put the blinkers on, and what that does is it hopes to get you more focused, and a lot of times, more speed, because the horses are only looking at what's in front of them.
05:45They're not looking around at everything else.
05:46They don't get distracted.
05:48I think that could really help Hypness as we move to our selections here, Alexa.
05:52So, tell everybody, as we get set for our first break, how did you stack him up for this race?
05:56Yeah, I have Bowler on top, I like him coming back, and Native Runner in second for a big price.
06:03So, the price for Alexa there was the five.
06:05For me, I thought the two, Bracket Buster may be interesting.
06:08I'll go six, seven, eight, get a little value on the two.