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00:00So Donnie, let's take an early look at the round of 32.
00:04We go in chronological order.
00:06It starts just after noon Eastern Time in Providence,
00:09Purdue, and the upset-minded McNeese Cowboys,
00:13led by Will Wade.
00:14Six-and-a-half points spread in favor of the Boilermakers.
00:17The second game in Providence is one of the games,
00:19at least from a headline and storyline perspective,
00:23everybody is going to be paying attention to.
00:26St. Johns and Rick Pitino.
00:28Arkansas and John Calipari.
00:30Six-and-a-half points spread in favor of the Johnnies as well.
00:34How do you break down those two games?
00:37Yeah, taking a look at the first one, of course,
00:39would be Purdue, because the one thing that we understand is,
00:42you sort of get jaded a little bit, like,
00:43boy, how good is McNeese's defense overall?
00:45It's 59th in the country.
00:46Yesterday, you could be confused in the first half,
00:48like, am I watching Houston play,
00:50or is this actually McNeese's play
00:51of how good they were against Clemson?
00:53You're not going to get that same sort of effort
00:55in the first half that you're going to get from Purdue,
00:56because Purdue is absolutely elite at efficiency here,
00:59which means not turning the basketball over,
01:01rebounding, shooting three-point shots from 38% as a team,
01:0455% from inside the arc.
01:06I really, and again, it's not a knock on McNeese.
01:10I'm not taking anything away from their first-round victory.
01:12It was impressive, even though the final score
01:13didn't indicate how impressive it actually was.
01:16You're not going to get that type of effort
01:17from Purdue out of the first half.
01:18Purdue's not scoring under 20 points against McNeese.
01:21They'll be able to handle the pressure defense.
01:22They'll be able to rebound the basketball
01:24and make big shots when they can,
01:25which included from three-point range.
01:26So just getting a start tomorrow,
01:28I was impressed with McNeese State's victory,
01:30but I don't think it's a great matchup
01:32second round from McNeese going up against Purdue.
01:34I don't think you can bully them,
01:35steal the basketball, and say,
01:36you're going to struggle with our defense.
01:37I think Purdue wins that game, go and go away,
01:39which means winning and covering the point spread.
01:43Yeah, DRS, if you were going to trust any backcourt
01:46or maybe any guard in college basketball to take care of it,
01:50that would probably be Braden Smith.
01:52Purdue plays slow, McNeese plays slow.
01:55There will be a lot of pressure,
01:57but if you can get into your half-court sets
01:58and you're not turning the basketball over
02:00and you're able to make shots,
02:02unlike Clemson in the first 32 minutes or so
02:05of yesterday's game in Providence,
02:06I think this is a good matchup for the Boilermakers.
02:10Did not love that matchup for Clemson against the Pokes.
02:13I think the Boilers are in a good spot.
02:15Purdue avoiding the opening round upset against High Point
02:18as it changed our march narrative around them.
02:20We shall see.
02:21Again, St. John's in Arkansas.
02:23The Johnnies, not great out the gates,
02:25and it's been a consistent thing this year.
02:27If you think the Razorbacks can keep it close,
02:30not just a six and a half point spread
02:31for the game overall, DRS,
02:33but a four and a half point number in the opening half
02:35for the Hogs and the Johnnies.
02:38All right, next up on that round of 32 graphic,
02:41Michigan, Texas A&M in Colorado, Texas Tech, and Drake.
02:45That's where things are in terms of our timeline tomorrow.
02:49A&M, a slight favorite against the Mays and Blue.
02:52Texas Tech, a seven and a half point favorite against Drake.
02:57Will the March momentum continue
02:58for Ben McCollum and his Bulldogs?
03:01You know, again, the round of 32
03:03is sensational all the way through,
03:04but real quick point there on that St. John's game.
03:07Without handicapping it,
03:08the way I know St. John's likes to play, Ben,
03:11I really think St. John's wins that game
03:13by at least double digits going away.
03:14I really believe that because I just like the matchup
03:17with Arkansas and Kansas,
03:18the way that footprint was in that one
03:20where I wasn't really trusting Kansas.
03:21I think you got the best out of St. John's
03:23where not really focused in the first half,
03:25really got them together,
03:26now playing their peak basketball.
03:27I think they really take apart Arkansas in that game.
03:30And Texas A&M, from just a matchup standpoint,
03:33Michigan is not gonna run away from anybody.
03:35I think that's what you have to do
03:36when you play Texas A&M.
03:37If you play that same type of style,
03:39like we're just gonna try to be big on the glass,
03:41Texas A&M will beat you there.
03:42So I have some pretty clear inputs tomorrow
03:44where I'm saying to myself, you know what?
03:46I like some of these games already here.
03:48And that's exciting.
03:49We'll continue to look at the round of 32.
03:51The early lines on the early line.
03:53Next.
03:55Let's continue getting you set
03:56for the round of 32 on Saturday,
03:58because we won't see you after the round of 64.
04:02On this Friday, we have previewed and broken down
04:04all 16 games over more than 13 consecutive hours
04:08of college basketball again.
04:10But we do have our eight round of 34 games
04:13for a Friday already set up.
04:15Purdue, McNeese, St. John's, Arkansas,
04:18our set of games in Providence.
04:21Purdue, McNeese in the Midwest region.
04:23St. John's in Arkansas in the West region.
04:26Texas A&M in Michigan in the South.
04:28That game in Denver, Colorado.
04:31Texas Tech and Drake in Wichita, Kansas.
04:34The Red Raiders, a seven and a half point favorite.
04:36This also a game hailing from the West region
04:39and that portion of the bracket.
04:41Drake yesterday, DRS,
04:43controlling the game against Missouri.
04:45Winning by double digits outright
04:46as a six and a half point dog.
04:48Now getting seven and a half against a Texas Tech team.
04:51I know you really, really enjoy how close,
04:55how competitive can Drake maybe strike
04:58yet another upset victory tomorrow?
05:01I gotta tell you, like, I do like Drake with the points.
05:04I think Texas Tech can win this basketball game in advance,
05:06which I expect them to do and have them in my bracket.
05:08But understand this too, like, I need to be full gas.
05:11Like, Texas Tech at full strength is a thing of beauty
05:15to watch on offense because they play like an NBA team.
05:18Give me the three-point shot.
05:19Give me another three-point shot.
05:20If that doesn't go down, give me another three-point shot,
05:22which you know, Ben, I absolutely love to see that play.
05:24But Drake does defend the three-point shot well.
05:27Also, a key ingredient yesterday that did not play,
05:29Chance McMillan.
05:30One of the best three-point shooters in the country,
05:33once again, with that hockey injury upper body,
05:36which people thought he was supposed to play yesterday
05:38and didn't.
05:39I want to know if that was more,
05:40we don't need you in this one.
05:41We need you down the line.
05:43But does that mean we need you down the line?
05:45Meaning, I hope we win this next game so we can rest you
05:46four or five more days before we get to the Sweet 16.
05:49That is a little bit of a worry for me.
05:51It's a great basketball game.
05:52And yes, I am nervous.
05:53Drake can actually pull this upset with the way they play basketball.
05:57If I do get McMillan playing that game and healthy along
06:00with the other starters, yes, Texas Tech should overpower them.
06:03They're more talented and they're the better team.
06:05But a little bit of a pause.
06:06It's one of those, Ben,
06:07where I need to see those reports coming out early in the day.
06:09This guy's expected to play.
06:11Here's what we think.
06:11And maybe even get that leak report of,
06:13hey, he has no restrictions on his game today.
06:16But the fact that you missed a game that you couldn't play
06:19and we're not talking about, hey, you play four days later,
06:21you play 24 to 36 hours later.
06:24Yeah, I don't like that.
06:25I don't like that a lot from Texas Tech.
06:27Final game on a Thursday night in Wichita.
06:30A shorter turnaround for the Red Raiders for this matchup against Drake.
06:34The Bulldogs also playing, of course, in the evening session.
06:37Yesterday, DRS against a Mizzou team
06:39that seemingly could not stop going to the over,
06:42down the final three weeks of their SEC slate.
06:45The game was 67-57.
06:47Well under even a minimal total of 132 and a half.
06:52Tomorrow's total against the Red Raiders around 127 and a hook.
06:57Drake under in four straight and seven of their last nine.
07:02That's not exactly how Grant McCaslin and the Red Raiders love to play.
07:06They're a little bit slower.
07:07Nobody's slower than Drake,
07:09but they're really good defensively, running you off the three-point line.
07:12They love to take the three ball. Chance McMillan by far, though,
07:16their best three-point shooter.
07:17Could the Big 12 Player of the Year, JT Toppin,
07:20and his size differential against Ben McCollum's Drake Bulldogs
07:24be the difference?
07:26I've got Drake in my Sweet 16.
07:28I'm waiting to probably get to a point where this game is close.
07:31Find a middling opportunity live on the Red Raiders
07:34if I can to get close to this number.
07:38DRS in the afternoon hours and through our evening time slate.
07:43Let's continue with the Saturday at the round of 32.
07:47Auburn and Creighton in Lexington.
07:49It is our largest spread of the round of 32.
07:52The Tigers now a nine-and-a-half point favorite.
07:55Some market movement backing Auburn,
07:57despite the fact they lost three of their last four.
07:59And during the big dance, did not cover yesterday as well against Alabama State.
08:05Why do you think the market is buying back in on Bruce Pearl and his Tigers?
08:09Because it's a good matchup for them.
08:11It really is.
08:11Like, when you just take a look at what Creighton did,
08:13like, hey, make shots from anywhere he can beat anybody.
08:15Yes, that's case in point, but also understand this.
08:17If you're looking to bring that flamethrower from the three-point line,
08:20it's not against Auburn.
08:21Like, they are going to hit you with the extinguisher
08:23because they'll chase you off and defend it just about as good as anybody in the country.
08:27So if you do take that away and say, good luck inside,
08:30Auburn's got a very competent defense inside.
08:32And then also, the thing that sometimes we lose ourself for,
08:35I know Auburn's taking their punches.
08:36Like, they're awesome on defense and incredible on offense in efficiency.
08:41And you take a look at a Creighton defense,
08:43where sometimes a calling card could be, well, we'll frustrate a little bit.
08:46They don't turn you over.
08:47So if you have the number two most efficient offense against a defense
08:50that's not going to pester you or take the basketball away,
08:53eventually that's going to win out.
08:55I'm buying back on Auburn when I was never out at Auburn,
08:58but it seems like everybody is,
09:00and I'm not going to let that good Creighton performance cloud my vision.
09:03Auburn's better. Auburn handles their business for me.
09:06CU 8-2-1 against the spread as an underdog this year,
09:10winning outright as a dog in their opening round game against Louisville.
09:13Five outright victories for Greg McDermott and his Blue Jays,
09:17booked as the dog this year.
09:20But Donnie, what's so fascinating about Creighton
09:22that I think we saw on full display yesterday?
09:24They love to shoot the three, but they're not great at it.
09:27And they have Ryan Kalkbrenner, who can also shoot the three,
09:30but one of the best pigs in the sport.
09:32And yet they don't get the ball down low nearly as often as I would like them to.
09:37They were elite from three yesterday.
09:39They started one of seven.
09:41They made seven of their next eight to end out the opening half
09:44and really pull away from the cards.
09:46That's going to be key if you're going to keep this game
09:48within that nine-and-a-half point spread again.
09:50That is the largest so far for the round of 32 on this Saturday.
09:54Wisconsin BYU, one of your favorite games,
09:57basically a Moneyline pick'em.
09:59Total of 154-and-a-half.
10:01Houston and Gonzaga, I mean, come on.
10:03Doesn't get much better than that matchup in the round of 32.
10:07Tennessee and UCLA, total 132-and-a-half.
10:10Expected to be a slugfest between the Vols and the Bruins.
10:13Donnie, in the final minute, before we send you off to the Moneyline,
10:16what's your favorite game?
10:17What's your favorite play for tomorrow?
10:19Yeah, it's not Tennessee. It's not UCLA.
10:21Houston, by the way, is going to win by four-and-a-half points over Gonzaga.
10:24I love the fact that Gonzaga looks so damn good
10:27and that first round is getting so much respect.
10:29I look for them to just lock in and say,
10:30you know what, if this is going to be a rock fight,
10:32we'll win this by six, seven, eight points,
10:33but you're not covering that spread.
10:35I got Houston in that game.
10:36But BYU, Wisconsin, you look at this game and say,
10:38Donnie, both of these teams, go ahead and shoot the three-point shot.
10:42Both of these teams love the three-point shot.
10:44Both of these teams already played a game in elevation
10:47where they got used to the surroundings here.
10:49I don't know about a side that I'm taking,
10:51even though I do have Wisconsin getting past this round,
10:53the hat up against VCU.
10:55But if I'm looking at props, this is my game.
10:57Three-point shot props, bring it home with BYU, Wisconsin.
11:01Maybe my favorite game of the weekend lining up right there.
11:04I love it, love it.
11:06One-one, 54-and-a-half that total.
11:09Donnie, right side, enjoy the money line.
11:11Have a great time tonight in studio for Bracket Central as well.
11:14More on the early line next.