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00:00At first, the US President is speaking with Russia's Vladimir Putin this Tuesday.
00:15The White House is hopeful Moscow will agree to a ceasefire proposal which Kyiv signed
00:19on to just last week.
00:21Russian President Vladimir Putin has been dragging his feet on his response and at the
00:25end of last week suggested he was in favor of a deal but still had some questions.
00:31Ukraine's President says he's aware of the game Vladimir Putin is playing and he's calling
00:34for pressure to be ramped up on Moscow.
00:43For a week now, Putin has been unable to squeeze out a yes to the ceasefire proposal.
00:48He's saying whatever he wants, but not what the whole world wants to hear.
00:53The unconditional ceasefire proposal is essentially about saving lives, allowing diplomats to
00:58work on ensuring security and a lasting peace, a proposal that Russia is ignoring.
01:04Pressure is needed to finally make Moscow accept that their war must be brought to an
01:08end.
01:11We can now bring in Melinda Herring, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
01:15Thank you so much for joining us on the program today.
01:18When Donald Trump announced this call over the weekend, he said we will be talking about
01:22and we will be talking about power plants, essentially a process of dividing up assets.
01:28This call seems to me more than just getting a yes or no from Moscow on if they will accept
01:32a ceasefire.
01:34That's right.
01:35So this call is not a yes or no.
01:38Vladimir Putin does not accept the deal that was agreed on by the Americans and the Ukrainians
01:44and he's trying to rewrite it and he's appealing to Donald Trump and they're trying to divvy
01:49up the pieces today.
01:50And they have a two hour long meeting this afternoon and we're waiting to see what comes
01:54out of that.
01:55But the early statement yesterday that's very worrisome is that that President Trump may
02:00recognize Crimea.
02:02This is the peninsula that Russia illegally annexed in 2014 and that would have catastrophic
02:08consequences for US foreign policy and for power around the world.
02:14Now Ukraine has already accepted the terms of a ceasefire deal.
02:18Will it automatically have to accept whatever comes out of this phone conversation?
02:23No, absolutely not.
02:26Ukraine has already said that it will not accept that Russia would take control of the
02:3220 percent of the territory that is illegally annexed.
02:35So the territory is going to be one of the major issues of dispute.
02:39Russia wants four different provinces that it illegally annexed in 2022.
02:45And Ukraine has said no way that is a red line.
02:47So I expect that to be one of the most serious areas of disagreement.
02:52The other areas of disagreement are the future orientation of Ukraine.
02:56Russia has said no way to NATO and Ukraine has said this is none of your business.
03:00So watch that space as well.
03:01And then finally the big area of dispute will be over foreign troops.
03:05Are foreign troops allowed in Ukraine?
03:07Donald Trump may agree with Putin and say it's fine, no foreign troops.
03:11But Europe is saying no way, we're going to put foreign troops in Ukraine as a deterrent.
03:16So that's another area of disagreement that should come out today as well.
03:20Because it seems that following on from Vladimir Zelensky's meeting in the White House, that
03:25the United States and Europe are working on two very separate wavelengths.
03:29This is despite efforts from people like Kirstarmer to keep the United States abreast of what
03:34is going on.
03:37Is that the thinking, that the Americans are doing their own thing?
03:40Right.
03:42The Americans are doing their own thing and Europe feels like it's alone and that it has
03:47to represent its own interests now.
03:49So we've seen a lot of shuttle diplomacy from Europe.
03:53We've seen the French president, we've seen the Brits try to appeal to Trump and remind
04:00them of the importance of European security.
04:02It didn't really work.
04:03So we see the Europeans now setting up defense funds and basically getting ready for war
04:08is what we see.
04:10And we see Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump trying to cut a deal over the heads of the
04:16Ukrainians.
04:17And this looks like Yalta all over again.
04:21Russia said in the past that the war in Ukraine was a proxy with NATO.
04:27Members of Donald Trump's own administration have said NATO enlargement is what resulted
04:31in Russia's invasion.
04:33Given that this is the line of thinking in Washington now, in Moscow, what security guarantees
04:39will please both sides?
04:43So the security guarantees issue is going to be a very difficult one.
04:47The Ukrainians want NATO membership and NATO is not going to give membership to the Ukrainians
04:53at this point.
04:54Both the Americans and the Germans are opposed to Ukraine entering NATO.
04:58So there has to be some kind of alternative security guarantee.
05:02And Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has come up with some kind of guarantee that
05:07they would put foreign troops on the ground.
05:10And we're still seeing that being sketched out.
05:13The Ukrainians are open to that possibility, but of course the Russians are against it.
05:18And we don't know yet how the Americans are going to come out.
05:20So that's another point that I'd be watching from the phone call today.
05:24Melinda, Vladimir Putin has a larger goal, doesn't he?
05:28Besides this ceasefire deal, which he wants to hash out quickly with Donald Trump, it
05:33may seem, I don't know.
05:35He says he wants to reestablish ties with the United States.
05:38This is something that Donald Trump has spoken about, too, the eventual lifting of sanctions.
05:43Can we get to that point without a ceasefire deal in Ukraine, you think?
05:48I don't think so.
05:49So the sanctions are in place as a result of Crimea, and those sanctions have been on
05:54Russia since 2014.
05:56So they need some kind of agreement to basically relax those sanctions.
06:02They're pretty tough sanctions.
06:03I mean, yes, the White House could arbitrarily decide to ease sanctions, but Russia has not
06:08changed its behavior.
06:10So there's no logical reason to ease those sanctions.
06:14But we see today Putin really wants an easing of sanctions, and he wants a return to normal.
06:21And he's trying to seduce Donald Trump with business ties and also saying that we can
06:27give you minerals as well.
06:29So the rare earth minerals is another piece that we know that Trump is interested in.
06:33The Russians are also trying to play that piece, and they're also trying to talk about
06:37future energy deals there as well.
06:39It seems that Europe wants to get a seat at the table, has been trying to get a seat at
06:44the table to bring this war to an end.
06:47It seems the Trump administration has been avoiding that, given that Europe hasn't done
06:51enough on the diplomatic front over the past three years.
06:55Is that a fair assessment?
06:56No, Europe has done a ton on the diplomatic front.
07:00That's not a fair assessment.
07:01I think the more fair assessment is that the United States has given the most amount of
07:07military equipment, and this is Europe's problem.
07:10That is an argument that I think that Europe needs to address.
07:14So Trump is saying, you guys, you guys, Europe, are a bunch of freeloaders.
07:18This is your neighborhood, defend your own territory.
07:21And we see Europe stepping up, and Europe has made a lot of, they've made a lot of pledges.
07:27But when you compare the pledges of materiel versus what they've actually delivered, there
07:31is a bigger gap.
07:32So I think that is a fair criticism that the war in Ukraine is a, you know, has to do with
07:39European security more than it does American security.
07:42America does have a vital interest there, but it has a direct vital interest for European
07:47security.
07:48So I think the critique there from the Trump administration is partially correct.
07:53And what happens if Donald Trump goes ahead and recognizes Crimea?
07:57What sort of precedent does this set?
08:00So it sets a terrible precedent.
08:02It tells would-be dictators that they can go ahead and seize territory, and that Mike
08:08makes right.
08:09It is a complete turning over of the international order.
08:14So after World War II, we said, Mike does not make right, and you can't do that anymore.
08:20There are rules, and we will enforce them and follow them.
08:23So it's turning back, you know, almost 70 years of basically international rules and
08:31norms.
08:32And it's also telling China, boys and girls, you have a free hand with Taiwan.
08:35Go for it.
08:36There's going to be no consequences.
08:37Melinda Herring, thank you so much for joining us on the program today.
08:41My pleasure.