Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Monday warned his country must reduce its reliance on the United States and would turn towards its "reliable" European allies instead on his first trip abroad. For in-depth analysis and a deeper perspective on the widening rift between the US and it's Western allies and the rapprochement between Canada and the EU, FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney welcomes Scott Lucas, Professor of American Studies & International Politics at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin.
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NewsTranscript
00:00For more, we're joined now by Scott Lucas, Professor of US and International Politics
00:05at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin.
00:08Thanks so much for being with us this evening, Scott.
00:11So Mark Carney's first overseas mission as it were, what exactly prompted this trip?
00:17Is it simply because of the Trump factor, as one observer put it?
00:23Well I certainly think the Trump factor is part of this, but part of this is where Canada
00:28is vis-a-vis the United States versus Europe right now.
00:33And it is an important symbol that Mark Carney's first trip was not to Washington to see Donald
00:39Trump, but it was to see Keir Starmer in the UK and Emmanuel Macron in France.
00:45We have the immediate issue that Donald Trump does not see Canada as ally.
00:51He sees Canada as a territory to be bullied at the very least.
00:56And of course, if you take his statements at face value, Trump wants to take over Canada.
01:02Now that's a great offense to Canadian nationalism, it's an offense to Canadian sovereignty, but
01:07it makes Canada rethink where its political and economic position is.
01:11And if the United States is not going to be your ally, who will be?
01:15And that's why you have this reach out to the UK, to France, and more broadly to the
01:20European Union.
01:21And I think one thing I found striking this week is that if you ask Canadians who they
01:27favour, 68% have a favourable view of the EU versus 34% of the United States.
01:33That's a stunning shift.
01:34And by the way, almost half of Canadians now actually favour joining the European Union,
01:40even though I don't think that's on the cards in the near future.
01:43Canada also, Scott, it's reviewing the purchase of American-made F-35 fighter jets in light
01:49of Trump's trade war.
01:51Germany's suggesting a little earlier that alternative aircraft could be built in Canada
01:55or perhaps in Europe.
01:57Is that likely, do you think, at this stage?
01:59Well, I think the immediate alternative for Canada is that when they considered where
02:05to buy the fighter jets, the F-35 came out first, but Sweden's Saab Gripen came out second.
02:11And that's an immediate option.
02:12They can go to the Swedes and get those jets while they consider trying to build up a domestic
02:16capability.
02:17But remember, you also have other alternatives, such as the Eurofighter.
02:21And indeed, this is not just Canada.
02:24Portugal has said, the Portuguese defense minister has said that Portugal is considering
02:29pulling out of contracts to buy the F-35, that it's looking at alternatives.
02:35There are indications that Germany may consider that as well.
02:37Again, I come back to a fundamental.
02:39For the first time in 84 years, since 1941, you have a US government which is not allied
02:45with Europe.
02:46It's not allied with Canada.
02:48And in that circumstance, Canada, Europe and other countries look at each other and say,
02:53how do we build up these capabilities without necessarily going through Washington?
02:57Yeah, because the French president also has been ramping up efforts to persuade allies
03:02to move away from purchasing those American military hardware.
03:07But Scott, the top five firms globally, they're all American.
03:10After that, it's kind of mostly followed by Chinese firms.
03:14In and around 27 of the top 100 are based in Europe.
03:18So can these alternative suppliers, can they actually ramp up production?
03:24And how long might that take?
03:27This is a long term project.
03:29You know, certainly there will be an effort to increase production capacity, but you're
03:33right, there are limits on that.
03:35But you're talking about developing the ability in the longer term to have a much greater
03:41capacity.
03:42I think what we are seeing is the potential for the greatest realignment of relationships
03:49around the world, including with the United States, since 1945.
03:53And what you're seeing, I think, is Canada, the European Union, including France and other
03:58countries finally taking a look 5, 10, 15 years down the road and saying, we have to
04:04make these plans.
04:06We cannot, as we have done in the past, make the assumption of a US led NATO, a US led
04:11transatlantic relationship.
04:13So what you're seeing is certainly not something that will fill the gap that the US has provided
04:19in security for more than 80 years.
04:22But it is a start.
04:23And it's an indication that this may finally be a world, which is one in which the United
04:27States is not necessarily at the centre of where France, Canada or other countries go
04:32next.
04:33Well, isn't that clearly the message that Mark Carney is trying to send?
04:36He's no stranger, of course, to London.
04:39Is it a difficult balancing act, do you believe, for the likes of France and the UK to show
04:44their solidarity with the new Canadian prime minister without, you know, irritating too
04:50much the White House?
04:54I think we're beyond balancing acts.
04:55I mean, think about Mark Carney.
04:57Not only is he prime minister of Canada, but he was governor of the Bank of England when
05:02you had the other major shock of recent years, which is the UK leaving the European Union.
05:08Now in the aftermath of the UK leaving the European Union, EU countries have had to reconsider
05:13their relationships.
05:15And now I think you have to be at a point where your first thought is not what is Donald
05:20Trump's ego, not will Donald Trump humiliate you in public?
05:24You have to think about your national interests first.
05:27Because if you simply think of Trump first, you put yourself on the defensive.
05:32You don't plan, you react.
05:34And I think Mark Carney, Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer and other leaders are saying
05:39we cannot just react now.
05:41We have to act.
05:42We have to plan.
05:43Not remember only for the sake of our countries, but remember for the sake of Ukraine as it
05:48faces a Russian invasion, an invasion in which Donald Trump may have more sympathy with Vladimir
05:52Putin than with Ukraine's fight to survive.
05:56They have to act.
05:57They have to plan, as you say, Scott.
05:59But what do you think, in terms of concrete proposals, is going to actually come out of
06:03those meetings today, firstly in Paris and then later on in London?
06:07Well, I think you have a wider context here, first of all, which is that which came out
06:12last week in the aftermath of the humiliation, the attempted humiliation of Vladimir Zelensky,
06:20the Ukrainian president by the White House, Ursula von der Leyen saying, you know, our
06:26goal as the European Union is 800,000 euros, sorry, 800 billion euros in investment in
06:35our defense industry and defense production.
06:38You have Canada, which is saying we have to ramp up with billions of Canadian dollars
06:43into our own security establishment.
06:46Now, it is not just a question of spending money on that.
06:51You also have to develop the logistics chains.
06:54You have to coordinate between various defense firms.
06:56You have to coordinate production cycles.
06:58But I think, again, I have to emphasize for the first time, really, that I can remember
07:03you have Canadian and European countries saying we're going to plan for this defense without
07:09assuming that the United States is at the center of this.
07:11And this will take place, by the way, not only in terms of the national level, it will
07:15also take place within NATO as well, which means we may have a far different NATO than
07:20the one that we've been accustomed to in recent years.
07:22And these meetings, of course, happening, we've been talking about it here this evening
07:26before this scheduled call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, really Europe being
07:31forced to take a backseat in all of this, isn't it, despite these meetings and these
07:36continual shows of solidarity between various EU leaders and now with the new Canadian prime
07:41minister?
07:42Well, I think it's a contest and I think it's revealing what actually happened in the just
07:47over two weeks after that humiliation, attempted humiliation of Vladimir Zelensky.
07:53That was on a Friday.
07:54On the Monday, the European Union, including Ursula von der Leyen's statement, was to step
08:00up and say, all right, we're not going to sit by and let this happen.
08:04First, we're going to increase defense production.
08:07Secondly, we're going to look at our own security guarantees for Ukraine, something which has
08:11been led by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer.
08:14And third, we're going to develop an alternative negotiating path to the U.S.-Russia direct
08:19talks.
08:20Now, here we are just over two weeks later, and we have had that commitment to increase
08:25defense production.
08:27More importantly, we've had discussion of security guarantees, which are proceeding
08:31with talks on Thursday amongst military leaders.
08:34And we have had this Ukraine-U.S. ceasefire plan, which was brokered by the Europeans.
08:41In other words, what we saw was that Europe stepping up actually put Vladimir Putin on
08:45the defensive.
08:46And the reason why he is finally granting that call to Donald Trump, something he has
08:51dangled before Trump for weeks, is so the Kremlin can try to regain the initiative by
08:56spinning Trump, by flipping him to try to undermine the ceasefire proposal.
09:01That again means that Europe again will have to respond if Trump does follow Putin's lead
09:06and reach out to those Americans within the Trump administration who still think Ukraine
09:11security is something worth defending.
09:13Scott, as ever, thanks so much for being with us on the program this evening for all your
09:18analysis there.
09:19That's Scott Lucas, Professor of U.S. and International Politics at the Clinton Institute
09:25at UCD Dublin.
09:26Well, that's it from us for now.
09:27Just stay with us.
09:28We'll be back shortly with more world news.