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00:00Talk about this particular Royals pitcher.
00:03Look, do I think there's regression in Seth Lugo?
00:05Probably.
00:06And if you recall last year in the fantasy baseball black
00:08book, this was my big breakout pitcher investment of 2025
00:13and people were like, I said, Lugo really?
00:15I said, look, if he can go ahead and continue what he did
00:18in San Diego last year with the Kansas City Royals, he's
00:21going to have a phenomenal breakout season.
00:23He's going to be a guy that wins you drafts.
00:25I think he was going somewhere around like 280 P or at
00:28170.
00:28It was absurd wherever he was.
00:30It was so late in drafts where it didn't cost you anything
00:32to be wrong on Seth Lugo.
00:34And guess what?
00:34It doesn't cost you anything now because he's at 148, 148
00:39overall for a guy who was challenging for a Cy Young.
00:42So, yes, if I'm going to be fair, Pablo Lopez, XFIP, XERA
00:47were all better than his ERA.
00:49Seth Lugo, his XFIP was higher.
00:52His FIP was higher and his XFIP was higher, but none of
00:55which were at four.
00:57We're talking about 375 or 325 and 383.
01:00All tenable numbers, right?
01:02We know the beginning of the year, Seth Lugo wasn't striking
01:04out a lot of guys, but that changed after the first six
01:06starts of the season.
01:07And Seth Lugo started striking out guys.
01:09Look, I'm not saying Seth Lugo is Pablo Lopez.
01:12I'm not saying he's even Justin Steele.
01:14I'm saying is he is going far too late in drafts right now
01:18considering what he gave you last year.
01:21And I think it's important to not discard or discount the
01:2433 starts and the 200 innings.
01:26And that's another thing.
01:26I know people are concerned.
01:28We threw 200 innings, but he doesn't have the same miles
01:30on him as he was a, he was a relief pitcher for most of
01:33his tenure with the Mets, a spot starter at best at times.
01:36He got his opportunity with the Padres.
01:38We've seen what the Padres have done.
01:39They got the best out of Dylan Cease.
01:41Look what they got out of Michael King last year.
01:43So look, Seth Lugo was turned around.
01:45His career was turned around to me.
01:47I know he's 35 years old.
01:49I know it was too good to be true last year, but the ADP
01:53is too good not to buy in again in 2025.
01:55All right.
01:56Let's quickly move through the remainder of this list.
01:58I think this next guy just suffers of people going, oh,
02:01I don't think they know enough about the Astros pitching
02:03staff now that a lot of the big names are gone.
02:05Let's talk about this name Joe.
02:07Well, we talked about Hunter Brown a couple weeks ago
02:09on the show.
02:09He was our deep dive, right?
02:10Remember we did Hunter Brown the first month of April
02:12at an ERA over 10.
02:14After that, he had an AERA.
02:15The rest of his starts at 285.
02:17So what more do I have to sell you on folks?
02:19Hunter Brown is good.
02:21He had a terrible April.
02:22He made adjustments.
02:23He fixed it.
02:24He is going to be a starter.
02:25You need to be investing it in 2025.
02:28I'm sorry.
02:28There's just extreme value here.
02:30This team is still pretty good.
02:31And if Cam Smith comes along quickly and fills that base
02:34spot, he's going to really help that offense.
02:37And then the other guy is Spencer Schwellenbach, another
02:40player that, you know, last year came up and struggled
02:43a little bit and that's okay.
02:47As long as you figure things out and I think what you're
02:49looking for is Schwellenbach to build on what you saw
02:51last year in this Braves rotation.
02:53Braves are still a really good team.
02:55He threw 123 big league innings last year.
02:5721 starts, struck out 127 guys, a 335 ERA and a 1.04 whip.
03:02He's going to give you whip.
03:03He's going to give you ERA.
03:04He's got good solid strikeout potential.
03:06The win potential is there.
03:08So the question is, what does it look like when it gets
03:11to 150 big league innings this year?
03:13Well, we can cross that threshold when we come to it.
03:15As an investment right now where Schwellenbach is going
03:19once again at 92, almost 100th player overall, same range
03:22as Hunter Green.
03:23Now, Hunter Green's a guy I like more for strikeouts, but
03:26if you're looking to lower whip and ERA, Schwellenbach
03:29might be the safer guy for that.
03:31Probably more win potential as well.