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00:00Joe, let's go to Minnesota first.
00:02This is a team that always I feel is ignored.
00:04The entire AL Central is ignored
00:06and we'll get in deeper later on, but it's a great store.
00:09It really is.
00:10You can go shop at the expensive stores.
00:12I'm going to the AL Central, man.
00:13What do you want to do?
00:15Yeah, well, it's a lot cheaper to go.
00:17It's like Marshall's, right?
00:18You know, you can find some stuff for school there.
00:21You know, you can find a couple of things there.
00:23Maybe not the best, but you can find a couple of things.
00:25The necessities, right?
00:26That's what Matt's mom would take you for.
00:29Last year, Bayley-Ober threw 178 innings.
00:34You look at the ERA, it was close to 4.
00:36It was 3.98.
00:37But the XERA was 3.22, and that is
00:41what I find most encouraging about Bayley-Ober.
00:43When you start to peel back the layers a little bit
00:46of this onion, the 8.3% battle rate
00:50looks like he could get hit a little bit hard.
00:53But at the same time, a lot of the deeper metrics
00:55still really point to Bayley-Ober being successful.
00:58And the thing I like the most is that strikeout rate.
01:00191 strikeouts in just 178 innings,
01:03and the innings total, the fact that he crossed that 175 mark.
01:06So this is a guy that you're ready to make an investment in
01:09that I think has number two starter potential,
01:11but he's being drafted more like a three or a four,
01:13depending on the depth of your league.
01:15That kind of return on investment is very important.
01:17And Bayley-Ober, I think, suggests
01:19all of that sort of value.
01:20If you look overall where Bayley-Ober is being drafted,
01:23he is going somewhere around the 90th player overall.
01:27Just to give you some names around there,
01:28Cal Raleigh, okay, catcher with power, that's fine.
01:32Mike Trout, interesting, but again,
01:35what's that investment look like?
01:37Alex Bregman, who is a good player at this stage,
01:40but if you're looking to make up some pitching ground,
01:42again, this is why I like taking offense early.
01:45So I'm not relying on Mike Trout or Alex Bregman
01:47to carry my offense.
01:49But I think I feel okay about Bayley-Ober
01:51trying to be a number three starter in my rotation.
01:53And that is a decision that I've already made
01:55this offseason and in most of my drafts
01:57and my upcoming drafts and looking at Bayley-Ober
02:00as a guy that can be, not just be a contributor anymore,
02:03but really give you the strikeouts.
02:05And as you were saying, if this Twins team
02:06can actually stay healthy for a change, right?
02:08You actually get full seasons, dare I say,
02:11from guys like Buxton and Correa,
02:12or at least maybe a hundred plus games
02:14from both of those guys,
02:16then all of a sudden the Twins team is a pretty good one.
02:18So I would be looking at Bayley-Ober's investment this year.
02:20I like the ADP and I like what I saw last year.
02:23I think the numbers don't really give you a full picture
02:25of how good he could be in 2025.
02:29Yep, for those that are new to this
02:30or maybe they're struggling
02:31or sometimes just looking for a new metric,
02:33something I like to use when it comes
02:35to this kind of tier of pitchers, I look at three things.
02:37Joe talks about offensive ecosystem in his book.
02:40So I'm gonna look at the offense of the team.
02:42I'm gonna look at the bullpen of the team
02:43as it relates to a starter pitcher,
02:45especially if I'm gonna try to get myself some wins.
02:47And look at the walk rate of the pitcher.
02:49Joe and I talk about it often,
02:50looking at pitchers and looking at hitters.
02:51You can look at the walk rate
02:53and really tell a lot about a player.
02:55So if Bayley-Ober checks all these boxes for you,
02:58it's not a one, but if he checks all these boxes for you
03:00for that mid rotation, and like we said,
03:02if the Twins excel, this is gonna be fun.
03:05All the names on this list are gonna be fun.
03:06Let's go down away from the American League Central.
03:08Let's go to the National League Central,
03:10a team I'm excited about.
03:11There's questions about the pitching,
03:13but I think it all comes together with the coach.
03:14I think Terry Francona being in Cincinnati
03:16changes absolutely everything.
03:18Hunter Green is a guy.
03:21Yeah, we've waited a couple of years for Hunter Green,
03:23and I think this is it.
03:24I think he's ready.
03:25He showed you last year
03:26that he really took a giant step forward.
03:29So I wanna call it the full breakout
03:30because it wasn't over a full season, it was 150 innings,
03:33but he gave you 169 strikeouts, a 275 ERA, a 1.02 whip.
03:37So can he take that and do it over 30 plus starts
03:40as opposed to 25 starts?
03:41And I think the answer is yes.
03:42Strikeout rate is off the chart for him.
03:45You're already seeing in spring too,
03:4712.4 strikeout per nine right now,
03:5016 innings, 22 strikeouts,
03:51but the key for him, just five walks.
03:53He's also cut down on that home run rate.
03:54That was the big thing
03:55that was always a problem for Hunter Green.
03:57You know, you can throw a hundred miles an hour
03:58in the big leagues, but guys are gonna hit it, right?
04:01Yeah, if you're throwing it right down the pipe,
04:02that's a problem.
04:03So learning that pitch mix,
04:05excuse me, as we talked about earlier,
04:08learning, you know, how to find the outs and lineups,
04:11how to pitch around certain guys, how to attack others.
04:14Hunter Green is starting to understand
04:16what it takes to be a big league pitcher.
04:18And if you miss out on Cole Reagans, right, at pick 40,
04:22right around pick 90 in the same area,
04:24right around 92 is where he's going,
04:26very close to Bailey Ober,
04:28he has big time strikeout potential too.
04:30And he could give you as many as Cole Reagans,
04:33maybe as many as Paul Skeens too, I'm just saying,
04:36but he is going far later in drafts.
04:38Now, does he have the consistency yet?
04:41No, but I think last year was a huge step
04:44in the right direction.
04:46Spring training doesn't mean too much,
04:47except for the guys it means everything for.
04:49And Hunter Green is a guy that right now is showing you
04:53all the good work that he put in at the end of last year
04:55is carrying over into the beginning of this season.
04:57And that is very encouraging.
04:59And I think you're right.
05:00Terry Francona, I think makes a huge difference
05:02in terms of the knowledge he brings to this game
05:05and hopefully his new staff as well.
05:07I think that's gonna be really important,
05:08that veteran leadership to a very young team.
05:11And Hunter Green, I think is a player
05:13that could be an enormous breakout in 2025.