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#Indian Elections #Modi #Congress
Follow Gulf News' for special coverage and analysis of the Indian Elections 2019.
#Indian Elections #Modi #Congress
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00:00Good evening and welcome back to yet another live update of the Special Indian Elections
00:072019 coverage being brought to you by Gulf News.
00:11We have right now with us Satish Rao and Jayaprasad who are going to give us a wrap on what is
00:19happening in the key states in the south, which is Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh
00:25and Karnataka.
00:27What is happening with Tamil Nadu and the BJP's position there?
00:32BJP is completely wiped out, kind of.
00:35They were actually picking back themselves on the back of AIADMK, the ruling coalition
00:42there.
00:43But unfortunately the anti-Modi sentiments were so high in Tamil Nadu that literally
00:51one seat probably the ruling AIADMK is leading, the combined.
00:55But like you said, in the state elections, like how you were explaining to me earlier,
01:02the people have given a mandate to the AIADMK.
01:05Exactly.
01:06That anti-Modi sentiments were visible only in the Lok Sabha elections, whereas there
01:10are 22 seats, by-elections were 22 seats were going on right now, but there the people have
01:18clearly given the mandate in the sense, it's kind of a neck and neck with DMK and the AADMK,
01:25but it's not that bad with the assembly, because it's very important for the EPS faction to
01:32win at least minimum of five seats, to retain their position and have a majority to continue
01:38this party until 2021 when the next elections are happening.
01:43And I would also like to say that it's probably, you know, like a very important election for
01:46both DMK as well as AADMK, because it's a start of a new era where you don't have doyens
01:52like Jayalalithaa, Karunanidhi, they are not there.
01:56So it is the first chance to establish themselves for Stalin as well as EPS.
02:03I think this was a kind of telling display by Stalin.
02:07Of course, yes.
02:08He played his cards quite well.
02:10And of course, he, the advantage with him as well, he was with Karunanidhi, he in fact
02:15last election, he led it from the front because at that point of time, Karunanidhi was ailing
02:21a bit.
02:22So it was Stalin who did all the work and he ran close to Jayalalithaa in the assembly
02:27election.
02:28So it is something which he has been used to, whereas it is a tough task for the CM,
02:34the current CM, EPS, because the AADMK after the demise of Jayalalithaa had seen at least
02:40three splits.
02:41One with OPS, the previous chief minister, three-time chief minister, who had revolted
02:49and then the party split at that point of time.
02:51Then he joined hands with EPS and then Dhinakaran split.
02:55So it has been a bit of a fragmented kind of a few months, yes.
03:01And so basically it was a big, big test for AADMK to prove, because Dhinakaran faction
03:05people were thinking who is the real AADMK, whether the Dhinakaran faction or the EPS
03:11faction.
03:12So it was a big test for the AADMK, which at least by getting nine seats, they are leading,
03:18AADMK is leading about nine seats in the – nine out of the 22.
03:21So they have kind of proved that they are the real AADMK, whereas the Dhinakaran faction
03:29has not yet gotten enough votes to prove themselves, probably some of them they must have lost
03:34their deposits as well.
03:36So it was – and one of the reasons for the anti-Modi sentiments in Tamil Nadu is because
03:42right from, say, last few years, like a lot of things that went – you know, like people
03:49associated themselves or the things that didn't go well in Tamil Nadu were associated with
03:55lack of effort from Modi.
03:57Like for example, the NEET exam where – like a medical exam, entrance exam where one girl
04:04was committed suicide because she didn't do well.
04:07So that created a big issue among the Tamil Nadu population.
04:11Then you have other issues like hydrocarbon, and then you have the eight-lane expressway,
04:17plus you have the farmers protesting there in Delhi where, you know, like they were almost
04:22there in a station for one month and trying to meet up with Modi, but they couldn't do.
04:28So all this kind of – you know, like the opposition parties, they were playing up against
04:33Modi over a period of time, which is rightfully, yes, like – it's not that they have not
04:38done it.
04:39Even recently when – sorry, BJP leader from Tamil Nadu said we couldn't – we tried
04:46our best to break the people's sentiments or opinions, you know, like, but we failed
04:53to do.
04:54That's precisely what has happened.
04:56But at the end of it, it's a good election for the future of Tamil Nadu because we have
05:01two newcomers who are trying to establish themselves for the Dravidian parties, which
05:08are the stronger hold of the Tamil Nadu.
05:12So it is a good election, and I think EPA also needs to be commended for his effort
05:19to bring together a fragmented unit and then take it forward as much as he can.
05:26Moving on, Rao, you're going to give us an overview of what's happening in Telangana
05:32and Andhra Pradesh, and from what you were telling me earlier, it's pretty complicated.
05:36True.
05:37Because Telangana Rashtra Samathi chief, that is K Chandrasekhar Rao, who had recently won
05:4588 seats of the 199 –
05:47This is the state election.
05:48State elections, 119-seat house.
05:51He was hoping to win 16 seats that he had contested for Lok Sabha elections, and he
05:57has partnered with MIM, that is Asaduddin OYC.
06:00So he had been saying that the car would be sweeping, that is his party emblem symbol,
06:08would sweep all the 16, but he has won just half of it.
06:13Yes.
06:14Interestingly, BJP got four, or leading, and Congress also is leading in four, and
06:20one, of course, MIM got it.
06:22And he's the same leader who had been hoping to make magic in the centre.
06:29He wanted to group all the fragmented opposition parties.
06:33He was the one, like you were telling me earlier, creating that whole third front.
06:38Third front.
06:39And maybe having somebody in the Prime Minister's office in the south.
06:44He met several leaders all over the country, mostly in the south, and he wanted to become
06:51a kingmaker, if not king himself.
06:53But he failed dismally, and that is showing.
06:57And the most surprising aspect is his daughter, Kavita, who has contested from her seat in
07:06Nizamabad, lost miserably.
07:10Why do you think that has happened?
07:14They've given them the mandate for state elections, but not for the centre.
07:18True.
07:19They were hoping that this man would deliver on his promises, and complacency has set in,
07:25I guess.
07:26And he has been going cool on most of the promises that he has made.
07:31And in any case, people wanted maybe change, that is anti-incumbency also must have come
07:38into play.
07:39And the biggest surprise of all this is also BJP, which was restricted to just one or two
07:48seats, has won four.
07:50And it has made inroads into areas which had never been this strong, like in Karimnagar
07:57and other places.
08:00And coming to, going to Andhra, it was Jagan's juggernaut, unstoppable.
08:08And the termination of Chandrababu Naidu has been routed completely, at least in Lok Sabha
08:15elections.
08:16Jagan has swept all 25 of this.
08:20He has won all 25 of the 25.
08:23All 25 out of 25 parliament elections.
08:26And in assembly, it had simultaneous elections for state assembly elections also.
08:31Assembly.
08:32And of the 170...
08:34So, just to interrupt you, is this, in his case especially, are you seeing the youth
08:39responding?
08:40No, I would say across all sections.
08:44Okay.
08:45Caste, religion, and community, educated, and everyone, like farmers, everyone was hoping
08:55that he would, is hoping that he would turn around things.
08:59Because Babu had, Chandrababu Naidu, he is known as Babu, and as an aside I would like
09:06to say, Jagan's sister, Sharmila, during her campaign had been coming up with this line
09:13saying, bye bye Babu.
09:15And this is what exactly has happened.
09:18But Rao, just sorry to interrupt, did, like, Chandrababu Naidu, instead of looking at
09:24the election where Jagan really, I think he had a lot of walk-a-thons across the state.
09:29I agree to that.
09:30And Jagan, he has never been idle after having lost last elections.
09:38He had preparing ground for the next big fight.
09:42And I think this is what we are seeing across India because in a lot of cases, even where
09:46the BJP has succeeded and managed to make inroads, as we saw in West Bengal, etc., was
09:51that they have made a constructive effort to be seen and to be heard.
09:56Exactly.
09:57So he criss-crossed the whole of state, of Bangladesh, and he did this padayatra march,
10:03and he covered about 3600 kilometers.
10:07And with blisters on his feet, and sunburn, and everything, doctors had been asking him
10:14to take rest, but he said, no, I have a duty to perform.
10:17I have to meet each and every constituent.
10:20And in the process, he got firsthand information of all the problems, and he had come up with
10:27a list of nine issues that he would be tackling, and he called them Navratnas.
10:32These Navratnas are the ones which Chandrababu hijacked in the last minute, and just before,
10:40three months before the elections, he adopted some of his Jagan Mohan Reddy's and passed
10:46off as his own projects, like loan waiver, and money to women, pension scheme for old-age
10:55people, etc.
10:56But these were, which Jagan had been compiling over all these five years.
11:03And the biggest drawback for Chandrababu Naidu was he made a complete U-turn just before
11:11the elections.
11:12He saw Jagan was surging ahead with his clamor for special status for Andhra Pradesh.
11:18That was his demand right from the beginning, and he was the one who raised a ruckus in
11:25parliament about this.
11:28And on the contrary, Chandrababu Naidu had been, you know, was okay with just special
11:34package for the state.
11:36And when he saw Jagan Mohan Reddy surging ahead, then he thought, this is the point
11:42that he should be focusing more on, and he made a complete U-turn and said, we need special
11:49status.
11:50And Modi, with whom he had allied for the last election, he broke away from NDA, and
11:57he adopted this line.
11:59But people saw through his game.
12:01I think that was the unthinkable.
12:03So basically he called Chandrababu Naidu napping.
12:06Correct.
12:07Yes.
12:08And has surged ahead.
12:09When he was actually stationed in Delhi, he was doing all the work here, maybe.
12:15Is that right?
12:16At one point of time, when students and youth were, you know, asking for special status
12:22for the state, he went on record saying that anybody who asks for special status will be
12:28jailed, imprisoned.
12:30This is Chandrababu Naidu.
12:31Chandrababu Naidu.
12:32And he said the package that he was getting for the state from the centre was much better
12:39than getting special status.
12:42And the other thing was, nobody knows what happened to all the funds that the state got.
12:47Because there was no tangible development.
12:52And also on the issue of state capital at Andhravati, he always says that he's going
13:02to make a world-class city, more like Singapore or Hong Kong.
13:09But people don't want all that.
13:11They want something more tangible.
13:13Like what Jagan has been promising, like, you know, a loan waiver, fees reimbursement
13:19for...
13:20Ground reality.
13:21Ground reality.
13:22That will affect their day-to-day life, maybe.
13:24These were the factors that helped Jagan and went against Naidu.
13:31People hopefully will not be fooled again.
13:33Yeah.
13:34Sincerely hope so.
13:36Coming to Karnataka, BJP stronghold.
13:40And as the results showed, there was not any surprises.
13:45How many seats are there in Karnataka?
13:48Out of the 28 seats, 25 BJP won.
13:50One went to Congress, one went to JDS and one independent.
13:54And the independent you were telling me is an interesting story.
13:57Yeah.
13:58She's an actress, former actress, Sumalata, and her husband was Amrish, again an actor
14:04who died recently.
14:06So that sympathy factor was actually...
14:10And despite her competing against kind of political...
14:13The biggest thing was they had put Nikhil, that's Kumar Swami's son, as a competitor for him.
14:20And I think people understood, took it as a joke then because he was, he had absolutely
14:27no experience as a politician or had not even worked at the ground level.
14:33So I think that showed with the result because it was a massive mandate for Sumalata.
14:38Anyway, even before the elections, the exit polls also, we had seen...
14:45Last time they had won around 17 seats.
14:49And this time there was indications that they would touch 18 to 20.
14:53But the Modi fever, I think, had further gripped the state.
14:57And they have achieved 25, which is a huge mandate.
15:02Among those high-profile upsets, Malik Arjun Karge, that was the biggest upset because
15:09he has not lost a single election since he's become a politician in 1972.
15:16So this was a big...
15:18So why do you think that is?
15:20Yeah, that's again the Modi factor, I would say, because BJP has...
15:24The north side of Karnataka was usually stronghold of Congress, but now it looks like the BJP
15:31is taking over.
15:32There is a tectonic shift in favour.
15:35But this is not the case with the state.
15:38State, what had happened was exactly a year ago, Kumar Swamy had taken over as Chief Minister.
15:45That is despite BJP getting the majority, but they fell short of the mandate.
15:52So what happened was JDS and Congress came together and then they formed a government,
15:58which again, I don't think is going any further after this election.
16:03They had a lot of internal fights happening and it was reaching the peak with a lot of
16:09Congress politicians themselves coming out in the open and blasting their seniors.
16:14So that was not going well with the people.
16:17And I think with these results, I hardly see the government going any further.
16:25And Sitaramma is already meeting all the top party members today, so anything can happen
16:31in the next few weeks.
16:34And also, most of these exit polls had been predicting that Chandrababu Naidu would be
16:41winning all the seats and here also, in Telangana, TRS would be sweeping LS polls, Lok Sabha
16:47polls.
16:48But everyone was wrong.
16:50Only National Champs, they got the exit polls right.
16:54But even his performance has surpassed even those exit polls.
16:59Jagan Mohan Reddy's.
17:01I think the exit polls recently, they gave about 4 seats to TDP, if I remember right.
17:06That's how the count was.
17:08But that way, Karnataka, I think they got it perfectly right.
17:11They actually got 4 seats less than BJP.
17:15Yeah, probably, they themselves would be surprised by the result because 25 seats.
17:18Almost the same with Tamil Nadu also.
17:20Tamil Nadu and Pulitzer also, they said probably 0 to 5 is what they have given to AIADMK.
17:25But now, probably we'll be ending up at 1 or 2 with AIADMK.
17:30HD Deve Gowda, our former Prime Minister, he lost it.
17:33He lost this one.
17:35That was a big, because he usually contests from Hassan, but this time he left Hassan
17:40for his other grandson.
17:42And I think he managed to win it, huge Prajwal Rewana.
17:46How many people from the family had contested this election?
17:49Almost everybody was there.
17:51That was a very poor result considering that all high profile guys.
17:55So because Deve Gowda had let go the Hassan constituency to his grandson, he had contested
18:01from Tumkur and I think he lost it there.
18:04So what I'm hearing is that basically the people of these southern states have given
18:10their mandate and it is largely performance based and expectation based.
18:15Absolutely.
18:16More than anything else.
18:17So thank you very much for joining us and giving our readers and viewers this insight.
18:22Thank you again for joining us, but stay tuned because like I said earlier, we will be having
18:28more live updates as more and more numbers come in and it kind of reaches a conclusion.
18:34And as you saw recently, Rahul Gandhi has conceded his seat in MIT and congratulated
18:39Narendra Modi on becoming the next Prime Minister of the country.
18:44So if you need to see more updates, definitely do log on to gulfnews.com to see news, views
18:50and analysis as our live coverage continues.
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