IHSG -2,27% ke 6.947,77 di sesi I Senin (3/2). Sektor properti melemah -3,36%, PANI -17,06%. Sektor barang baku -3,01%, MDKA -6,71%. Sektor kesehatan -2,56%, KLBF -4,74%. Dari sisi saham, BMRI -4,98% jadi laggard terbesar IHSG di 26,97 poin, BREN -5% beratkan IHSG 21,3 poin, dan BBCA -2,38% bebani IHSG di 14,72 poin. Tidak hanya IHSG, rupiah anjlok ke 16.460-an/USD.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for staying with us and in this segment we will review the trading path today at the beginning of the week, where the Samkabungan family experienced quite a lot of correction in the issuance.
00:16And we remind you that you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 08.12.8788.723, as shown on your television screen later.
00:26And right now we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Zedekia Joy, who is our security support analyst in Lampung.
00:33Good evening, Mr. Joy. How are you, sir?
00:36Good evening, Mr. David. I'm fine, thank you.
00:40Thank you also, Mr. Joy, for spending your time on this IDA channel.
00:44But it looks like the Samkabungan family is not doing well.
00:47Trading at the beginning of the week, intraday was weakening by more than 2%, touching the lowest level at 6,933.
00:55It looks like it's at the lowest level again, at least not in the last six months of trading.
01:00Then in a few minutes after the closure, the weakness is more limited and the Samkabungan family is doing resistance and has returned to the level of 7,000.
01:11Can you give us a technical analysis of the weakness that has occurred during today's trading, Mr. Joy?
01:17Yes, so if we look at it, as Mr. David has explained, there are a lot of analysts and economists
01:25because of the impact of the market psychology that is disturbed by Donald Trump's policy in the United States
01:34regarding the tariff for importing goods to the United States.
01:43So if we look at the opening, even at the end of the first session, it was really stressed.
01:50ISG even tested the support level at 6,900.
01:58And as Mr. David said earlier, it is true that there is resistance.
02:03We have gone up a little bit, although it can still be said to be in the red zone.
02:11And if we look at it, ISG is still testing resistance on the moving average of 20 days,
02:19with the presence of the bearish candle and also the volume is quite low.
02:25Personally, I think it's too soon to see the movement of ISG tomorrow.
02:33I think we need to see in the next week to see where the direction of ISG will go in February.
02:43More or less like that, Mr. David.
02:45But from your analysis, at least not for the next week's trading, where is the direction of the bearish candle?
02:51Will the global negative sentiment continue to shadow the next target, support, and resistance?
03:00From my point of view, it will continue to shadow.
03:04So what we need to pay attention to is not only Donald Trump's policy,
03:10but also the policies of other countries that will of course retaliate against the import tariff.
03:19For example, Donald Trump decides to import for Canada, Mexico, and China.
03:26There are 25% and 10% for Chinese products.
03:30And there is also news that Canada will do the same thing for the United States.
03:38So it can be said that there is a domino effect of this tariff policy from other countries.
03:46So of course it makes us unable to make a decision as soon as possible.
03:53That's why this is also one of the reasons why our ISG is red.
03:57Because many investors, whether from domestic or foreign,
04:03are still looking at the development of this trade war.
04:11Mr. Joy, not only the domestic market, but also the Rupiah market is also under a lot of pressure.
04:16It's already at 16,460 intraday today.
04:20Is this also the impact of Trump's policy that made the US dollar index rise significantly throughout today's trade war?
04:30Yes, that's right. I totally agree with what I just said.
04:37One of the reasons why our Rupiah is down is because the US dollar is stronger than Trump's policy.
04:44Trump's policy is more about prosperity.
04:48Or it can be said that the policy that gives a positive impact to the United States
04:55of course has an impact on other currencies.
05:00So this is also one of the impacts of Donald Trump's policy.
05:08So this is also what we need to pay attention to,
05:11apart from the policy of the ISG, of course also about the movement of our currency.
05:18From a sectoral point of view, property is the biggest burden for the Samkabungan family.
05:24However, from a shareholder's point of view, Big Cap Banking seems to be the biggest burden today.
05:31I want to go to Big Cap Banking, Mr. BMRI.
05:33This is the deepest correction compared to other Big Cap Banking.
05:38Weakened by 4.15% in 5,775.
05:43Analysis and technical recommendations for BMRI.
05:47So for BMRI, we can say that fundamentally it is still interesting.
05:55So if we look at the current PBV, it is at 1.97%.
06:03And for the average 5 years, the PBV is at 1.92%.
06:09So it's still okay.
06:11So maybe there are investors here who want to see,
06:16actually a lot of Big Cap Banking shares, the PBV is still okay,
06:21it can be said that it is still cheap compared to the average for 5 years.
06:26So with a moment like this, it can also be said that it is a gloomy Monday.
06:33Not only the weather, but also the capital market is under global pressure.
06:39It doesn't mean that these shares are bad.
06:44But more towards the psychological markets that are being disturbed.
06:48Psychological markets or investors are still in a wait-and-see position.
06:54Want to see how the development of policies will happen.
06:58Especially in the United States.
07:00So don't panic.
07:02For example, from me, BMRI can still be an option.
07:07Looking at the PBV, it is still relatively cheap.
07:12Or the price is still the same as the average for 5 years.
07:16Closed at IDR 5,800.
07:19The weakness has also begun to be limited.
07:22This is already at 3.73%.
07:24Intraday had a weakness above 4%.
07:26Has it been recommended to enter or WNC first?
07:30If it is recommended to enter, what is the level buy?
07:34Then support and resistance.
07:36For me, for BMRI, we still have to see in this week.
07:44To make sure when we can enter.
07:48But in my opinion, from IDR 5,700 to IDR 5,900, the price is still okay.
07:59But again, with the current market climate, we also don't have to catch a falling knife.
08:10So if we want to have a good fundamental conviction, we can also buy.
08:19Slowly.
08:21But for now, I will still personally see how the ISG movement this week.
08:28Maybe next week I will see the decision for buy or sell.
08:34Okay, for BMRI, IDR 5,800 weakens at 3.73%.
08:40Recommended to enter first.
08:42BMRI is one of the big cap banks that is currently experiencing the deepest correction compared to other big cap banks.
08:48From the sector side, Mr. Joy.
08:52Property today is the biggest burden on the housing market.
08:56There is PANI, then there is CBDK.
08:58In addition to the fundamental development that is quite heavy,
09:01how do you see the technical position for PANI weakening at 13.39%, closed at level 10,025?
09:09Recommendations.
09:11So if we talk about the property sector first, Mr. David.
09:18Actually, this property sector has been waiting for several years.
09:23Because many investors and traders are also waiting for the cut of the flower family at that time.
09:31But after the cut of the flower family, now there are other challenges that are happening globally.
09:39One of them is this world trade.
09:44But I like it if we can see it from a positive perspective.
09:48I mean, it can be said that the project attracts the property sector for 2025.
09:53One of them is the focus of the governments of Mr. Prabowo and Mr. Gibran to boost the economy.
10:00The 3 million house program can also be an interesting opportunity for the housing sector.
10:15I can say that this property sector has the potential to have a better leverage position.
10:23Which can expand to new locations so that it can have a better ROI if it is executed effectively.
10:33So in my opinion, with the decline of the property sector, it even gives a higher upside.
10:39Okay, let's go straight to PANI, sir, technically when we are quite limited.
10:42Okay, for PANI, in my opinion, it may still be corrected.
10:50So maybe you have to be careful too.
10:52For me in 1450, it may become my support too.
10:59Because if we look at it, PANI has some domestic challenges too.
11:04So for now, PANI for me is still not yet.
11:08Okay, not yet recommended. What was the support earlier?
11:11In 1450.
11:14In 1000?
11:16In 1450.
11:21PANI has a price of Rp. 10,000, sir, if I'm not mistaken.
11:24I'm sorry, I'm sorry, Rp. 9,800.
11:30I mean earlier there was a decrease of 13%.
11:34The decrease was at the point of Rp. 1,550.
11:37Okay, the support is at Rp. 9,850, sir.
11:40There is still a chance of a potential decline to PANI and it is more recommended by WNC first.
11:45Today's closing is at Rp. 10,025, decreasing by 13.39%.
11:50Okay, Mr. Joy, let's hold first.
11:52Later we will try to see what samples you recommend.
11:55And at the same time update the closing of trading in the second session today.
11:58And we will be back in a moment.