日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2025年1月11日 石破vsトランプ・習でどうなる？日本の外交
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00:00B.S. Teleto
00:16Good morning.
00:17Good morning.
00:18This is the Nikkei Saturday News on January 11th.
00:21Now, let me introduce today's guest.
00:25Joseph Kraft, a policy and economic analyst.
00:29Nice to meet you.
00:30Nice to meet you.
00:32Korogi Ichiro, a professor at Kanda Institute of Foreign Studies, who is familiar with Chinese politics.
00:37Nice to meet you.
00:38Nice to meet you.
00:40Akita Hiroyuki, a commentator for the Japan Economic News, who has been covering foreign exchange security for many years.
00:47Nice to meet you.
00:48Nice to meet you.
00:50This is the first program of the year.
00:54Let's take a look at what's going on.
00:58This year's first program is to verify the foreign exchange of Prime Minister Ishiba.
01:04That's right.
01:05I was thinking about what to do with the first program.
01:09Prime Minister Ishiba is going to visit Indonesia and Malaysia for his first visit to a single country.
01:18So, today's theme is foreign exchange of Prime Minister Ishiba.
01:22He is trying to build a good relationship with both the United States and China.
01:27In this copy, he wrote, China-Shift.
01:32It looks like he is actively improving his relationship with China.
01:37I wonder if he is going to succeed.
01:40I'd like to think about where Prime Minister Ishiba's assistance is.
01:48And on the other side of Nakazuri,
01:52let's take a look at the employment statistics for December in the United States, which was announced last night.
02:00The number of unemployed people in the non-agricultural sector has increased by 256,000 compared to the previous month.
02:08The number of unemployed people exceeded the expected number of 150,000 to 160,000.
02:13The unemployment rate was 4.1% and improved by 0.1 points from November.
02:18The average hourly wage rose by 3.9% compared to a year ago.
02:23As a result, New York Dow Jones fell by more than $750 per hour.
02:29The end-of-year bonus was $696, which is cheap.
02:32It was $40,938, which was the lowest since November 4 last year.
02:37It was back to the level just before the presidential election.
02:41Mr. Kraft, what do you think of the employment statistics?
02:45To be honest, it's a strong number.
02:49This year, the U.S. Department of Labor's interest rate has dropped by one percent.
03:01The stock price has also fallen.
03:03Another concern is that while the U.S. Department of Labor and the U.S. Department of Finance are moving in a high-profile position,
03:12Japan and the U.S. are in a relatively weak position.
03:18If this continues, it may lead to a further drop in the U.S. dollar.
03:25I think that's one thing to be aware of.
03:27This year, the U.S. economy is at risk.
03:33The U.S. economy is in a downturn.
03:36Mr. Kraft, what do you think will happen to the U.S. economy?
03:39What will happen to inflation?
03:43In the first place, the Trump administration is aware that it is at risk of inflation.
03:49If this kind of strong data comes out before the election,
03:54there will be an increase in the risk of further inflation.
03:59I think that will have an impact on the stock market.
04:06After the commercial break, let's think about the foreign policy of the Ishiba administration.
04:16On the 9th, Prime Minister Ishiba arrived in Malaysia, the first foreign visit of the year.
04:25On the 10th, he met with Prime Minister Anwar.
04:29This, as you know, is the first bilateral visit we are making.
04:34On behalf of Malaysia, and I'm sure my colleagues in Asia,
04:38we must express our gratitude and appreciation.
04:45In the face of China's growing maritime expansion in the South China Sea and the East China Sea,
04:51we agreed to work closely together to maintain and strengthen international order under the rule of law.
05:00For Japan, strengthening cooperation with ASEAN and Southeast Asia is one of the top priorities.
05:15On the 10th, he arrived in Indonesia.
05:18Today, he will hold a summit with President Prabowo,
05:22to build a trustworthy relationship between the two countries,
05:26and to confirm the strengthening of cooperation in the field of security guarantees.
05:34The ASEAN-related summit was held in October last year.
05:39In November, he attended the APEC summit.
05:43This year, Prime Minister Ishiba will hold a full-scale foreign visit.
05:50What caught the most attention was his meeting with US President Donald Trump.
05:58In December last year,
06:00President Trump met with Prime Minister Abe's wife, Ms. Akie, at a press conference the next day.
06:06He said, if the Japanese side wanted, he could meet her before the inauguration ceremony.
06:12However, Prime Minister Ishiba said that it would be meaningful for Mr. Trump to talk to her
06:18after he formally announced his administration,
06:21and that he will adjust the meeting after February.
06:27In December, Prime Minister Ishiba asked Mr. Trump for advice.
06:35Trump's new administration is about to begin,
06:39and I met with him last month,
06:44and we talked about various topics.
06:49Prime Minister Ishiba talked about Mr. Trump in the Nikkei Sunday Salon,
06:54which was recorded on the 8th.
06:58It's a win-win situation,
07:02where both sides can benefit from each other.
07:07Mr. Trump should know that this is the only way.
07:13What kind of relationship will Prime Minister Ishiba build with President Trump
07:18as the head of the Japanese-US relationship?
07:24What will happen to the Japanese-Chinese relationship?
07:28In November last year, the Japanese-Chinese Summit
07:32agreed to cooperate comprehensively based on a strategic mutual relationship.
07:39After that, on November 22,
07:42China announced that it would resume the visa exemption for Japanese citizens from the end of November.
07:51In December, Foreign Minister Iwai visited China
07:55and met with Prime Minister Aoki.
08:02In addition to establishing a ten-year visa for the rich class,
08:07the Japanese-Chinese relationship will be improved
08:11by reaffirming the demand for a Japanese visa for the Chinese.
08:17However, the details of the incident in Shenzhen in September
08:22have not been made public.
08:27The importation of Japanese-made products
08:30that have been suspended due to nuclear water
08:32has not been resumed.
08:36There are still many issues to be addressed
08:39in the Japanese-Chinese relationship,
08:41such as the issue of both seas and air by the Chinese military.
08:46What is the foreign policy of the Ishiba government?
08:52Today, we will discuss these three topics.
08:55First, let's look at the foreign policy of the Ishiba government.
09:00Let's look at the 10 major risks that the international political scientist
09:04Ian Bremmer's research company Eurasia Group
09:07has announced at the beginning of the year every year.
09:10The first is the deepening of the G-Zero world.
09:14This means that there is no country in the world
09:17that will lead the international order.
09:20The second is the domination of Trump.
09:23The members of the second Trump administration
09:26who will be born this month
09:28have been given a lot of money,
09:30which indicates the possibility of weakening
09:32the control of power and the rule of law.
09:34The third is the collapse of the U.S.-China relationship.
09:37The fourth is the Trump mix.
09:39The increase in tariffs and the lack of labor
09:42indicates that it will undermine the strength of the economy.
09:45And if you look at the others,
09:47Russia, Iran, and the confrontation
09:50between the United States and Mexico,
09:52which is still a non-governmental state,
09:54are being raised.
09:56It is an impression that the risks related to the Trump administration are numerous.
10:00Mr. Korogi, where do you pay attention to first?
10:03Last time, I think the top was Russia,
10:06which is a non-governmental state.
10:09This time, it's Trump.
10:12There is a collapse of the U.S.-China relationship.
10:15In addition to this,
10:17the impact it has on Japan is also in the report.
10:20If you look at it,
10:22Japan is sandwiched between China and the United States,
10:25and there are a lot of difficult things to do.
10:28The collapse of the U.S.-China relationship
10:30has a deep economic relationship with China and Japan,
10:33so it is completely safe and secure.
10:36It's a difficult situation, isn't it?
10:39The third one.
10:41Mr. Akita, what do you think?
10:43Well, if you add it all up,
10:46one thing I can say is that
10:48this year, in 1938,
10:50due to the Munich Treaty,
10:52Nazi Germany at the time
10:54The British and the French
10:56have recognized that
10:58the territory of Czechoslovakia
11:00was to be expropriated.
11:03From the following year,
11:05the Nazis invaded Poland
11:07and became the second world war.
11:09I think it's become a year
11:11that is equivalent to that.
11:13Specifically,
11:15Russia is in Ukraine,
11:17which is being invaded by international law.
11:20Originally, if they lost,
11:22such a clock hand would not turn.
11:25However, if Trump's
11:29If the ceasefire is quickly and
11:31in fact, if Russia is
11:33If the ceasefire is recognized in a favorable way,
11:36in 1938,
11:38Nazi Germany
11:40It was recognized
11:42that the territory of Czechoslovakia
11:44was to be expropriated.
11:46I'm worried that it's going to be
11:48a pretty big deal.
11:50I went to various international conferences last year,
11:53and in fact,
11:56In fact, in the unofficial place,
11:58the teaching of 1938
12:00In particular,
12:02It was discussed in private
12:04between European authorities.
12:06On the contrary,
12:08Mr. Trump talked to Putin
12:10and said,
12:12Ukraine's land is like this.
12:14The whole thing has to be stopped
12:16so that it doesn't go in that direction.
12:18At that time, the British Prime Minister
12:20was Prime Minister Chamberlain.
12:22When he and Nazi Germany
12:24In fact, at that time,
12:26the liberation of Czechoslovakia
12:28as a supporter of the Second World War
12:30It was praised.
12:32At one time.
12:34So Mr. Trump,
12:36I want you to make sure
12:38that history does not remain
12:40It's important to stop the war.
12:42I think we should stop the war as soon as possible.
12:44I want you to negotiate
12:46to make it a favorable ceasefire for Ukraine.
12:48How about you, Mr. Kraft?
12:50Yes.
12:52I think it's similar to what Mr. Trump said.
12:54In the prediction of the Eurasia Group,
12:56the G-Zero world,
12:58which is the deepest in the world,
13:00In other words,
13:02after the collapse of the Soviet Union,
13:04the word order of the new world
13:06appeared.
13:08In other words,
13:10the next generation
13:12has no order.
13:14In other words,
13:16a country with the leadership
13:18of one country
13:20will be able to fight for power
13:22when a country with a leadership
13:24of another country
13:26disappears.
13:28It will be easier
13:30for such wars
13:32and territorial disputes
13:34to occur.
13:36In such a situation,
13:38I personally wonder
13:40how the issue of Ukraine
13:42will affect Taiwan.
13:44This is Mr. Korogi's field of expertise,
13:46but I call it the Taiwan U-turn this year.
13:48I don't think anything specific
13:50will happen,
13:52but I think this year
13:54will be a year
13:56in which tensions
13:58and conflicts
14:00for unification of Taiwan
14:02will increase.
14:04At the beginning of the year
14:06that may be the end of history,
14:08the first country to visit
14:10is Malaysia and Indonesia.
14:12That's the beginning
14:14of the first foreign exchange.
14:16I'd like to check the schedule
14:18of the foreign exchange
14:20since Mr. Korogi took office.
14:22He has attended
14:24the ASEAN-related
14:26APEC and G20
14:28summit.
14:30This is the first foreign visit
14:32to Malaysia and Indonesia
14:34without an international conference.
14:36Also, the Japan-China-Japan
14:38exchange conference will be held
14:40for the first time in seven years.
14:42The delegation led by the Prime Minister
14:44will visit with the new
14:46Prime Minister's letter.
14:48And at the 20th
14:50President Trump's inauguration
14:52Foreign Minister Iwaya will attend.
14:54In February, President Trump
14:56and Japan and the U.S.
14:58will hold a summit.
15:00In addition, we plan to invite
15:02major foreign ministers from China.
15:04We plan to hold a summit
15:06between Japan and China
15:08in the spring.
15:10Let's look at the ASEAN history.
15:12On the 10th,
15:14Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar
15:16and the United Nations
15:18agreed on strengthening
15:20security in the Indo-Pacific
15:22which is free and open.
15:24Also, we exchanged views
15:26on the stability of LNG
15:28and further cooperation
15:30in the depletion of carbon.
15:32And today,
15:34we will have a meeting
15:36with the Indonesian President
15:38Prabowo.
15:40The meeting will be held
15:42in two plus two.
15:44In addition,
15:46we plan to have a meeting
15:48with the U.N. Security Council.
15:50Mr. Kurata, why did
15:52the Prime Minister
15:54choose these two countries?
15:56The relationship
15:58between Japan and ASEAN
16:00is very important.
16:02Mr. Suga, Mr. Abe,
16:04and Mr. Kishida
16:06were the first foreign ministers
16:08to choose ASEAN.
16:10Also,
16:12ASEAN is a country
16:14that is logical and
16:16friendly to Japan.
16:18As a first foreign minister,
16:20ASEAN is a wise choice.
16:22That's what I think.
16:24As a first foreign minister,
16:26ASEAN doesn't have
16:28too many risks.
16:30Mr. Akita, what do you think?
16:32If I take a step back,
16:34the world is
16:36a war zone.
16:38The world is surrounded
16:40by the United States,
16:42China,
16:44and other friendly nations.
16:46There is a power struggle.
16:48In this war zone,
16:50the two weakest
16:52friendly countries
16:54in Asia
16:56are Indonesia and Malaysia.
16:58If we go to the other side,
17:00the color of Asia
17:02will change.
17:04Indonesia is the largest
17:06Muslim country.
17:08Malaysia is also a Muslim country.
17:10As a result of the war
17:12in Gaza,
17:14there is a lot of
17:16rebellion
17:18in the world
17:20against Islam.
17:22If you look at the
17:24public opinion polls in both countries,
17:26the public opinion
17:28that China is better
17:30than the United States
17:32is getting stronger.
17:34Is there more rebellion
17:36against the United States?
17:38President Abbas
17:40had a meeting
17:42with the leader
17:44of Hamas last year.
17:46When the Islamic DNA
17:48comes out,
17:50it can't be proven.
17:52I think it was a good choice
17:54to choose two countries
17:56like that.
17:58Ms. Korogi, what do you think?
18:00I'm sorry.
18:02After all,
18:04Indonesia has joined
18:06the Chinese-Russian group
18:08by joining
18:10BRICS.
18:12Malaysia and Thailand
18:14also want to join.
18:16Malaysia is also an observer.
18:18This is one reason.
18:20The global south
18:22has become a hot topic.
18:24If we don't attract them,
18:26it will be bad.
18:28The United States and China
18:30have a lot of opinions.
18:32Trump and Mr. Ishiba
18:34have a lot of opinions.
18:36But Indonesia and Malaysia
18:38have an easy relationship
18:40between the countries.
18:42It's a good debut.
18:44Plus, Indonesia
18:46has joined BRICS.
18:48That's what I'm worried about.
18:50They are also conscious
18:52of China and Russia.
18:54There is another thing
18:56I'd like to talk about.
18:58Japan imports
19:009% of LNG
19:02from Russia to Sakhalin-2.
19:04That's quite a lot.
19:06We don't know what will happen
19:08in the future.
19:10We also need LNG
19:12to ensure
19:14overall energy security.
19:16I think it's a good choice.
19:18I see.
19:20On the other hand,
19:22the decision
19:24of President Trump
19:26was made
19:28on December 15,
19:30when Mr. Akie
19:32visited Trump's website.
19:34Mr. Trump said
19:36he wanted to meet
19:38Mr. Ishiba.
19:40The Trump administration
19:42withdrew from the meeting
19:44in January this year.
19:46Mr. Ishiba decided
19:48after February
19:50that Japan should be
19:52more aware of
19:54the situation in Japan.
19:56In a press conference
19:58held by BS TV tomorrow,
20:00Mr. Ishiba said
20:02Mr. Trump should know
20:04that both sides
20:06need to win-win.
20:08However, Mr. Ishiba
20:10has been meeting
20:12his foreign friends
20:14in Canada, France, Italy,
20:16and Ukraine.
20:18Mr. Kraft,
20:20what do you think
20:22of Mr. Ishiba's decision
20:24to meet Mr. Ishiba
20:26after his inauguration?
20:28I don't think it's a bad decision.
20:30What's important is
20:32when he meets Mr. Ishiba
20:34and what he talks about.
20:36I think it's more meaningful
20:38if Mr. Ishiba
20:40has time to prepare
20:42for the meeting.
20:44I don't think
20:46it's a problem
20:48if he meets Mr. Ishiba
20:50after his inauguration.
20:52However, Mr. Ishiba's
20:54various statements
20:56make it difficult
20:58for Mr. Ishiba
21:00to have a strategic
21:02and concrete
21:04conversation with Mr. Trump.
21:06In Ukraine,
21:08Mr. Ishiba should meet
21:10Mr. Trump
21:12as soon as possible
21:14and discuss
21:16how to win the election.
21:18Mr. Trump doesn't think
21:20that way.
21:22He's just trying to
21:24get information.
21:26I don't think he's
21:28thinking about
21:30how to win the election
21:32and how to
21:34have a strategic
21:36and concrete
21:38conversation.
21:40I don't think
21:42he's thinking about
21:44how to win the election.
21:46I think it's good
21:48for Japan to think about
21:50how to win the election.
21:52Mr. Akita, as Mr. Kraft
21:54pointed out,
21:56it's better for Japan
21:58to meet Mr. Ishiba
22:00as soon as
22:02the U.S. decides
22:04what to do
22:06with Ukraine.
22:08I don't think
22:10he's trying to influence
22:12the U.S. to do this.
22:14I'm sorry to hear that.
22:16I agree with Mr. Kraft.
22:18I don't think it's good
22:20for Japan to meet
22:22as soon as possible.
22:24But I think it's better
22:26for Japan to
22:28discuss what to do
22:30when the U.S.
22:32decides what to do
22:34with Ukraine.
22:36It's important for
22:38Japan to have
22:40a discussion with
22:42the U.S.
22:44as soon as possible
22:46before the U.S.
22:48decides what to do
22:50with Ukraine.
22:52I think it's better
22:54for Japan to
22:56have a discussion
22:58with the U.S.
23:00as soon as possible
23:02before the U.S.
23:04decides what to do
23:06with Ukraine.
23:08Mr. Takeo Akiba
23:10is the head of
23:12the Department of State Security.
23:14Mr. Takeo Akiba
23:16is the head of
23:18the Department of State Security.
23:20Mr. Takeo Akiba
23:22is the head of
23:24the Department of State Security.
23:26Mr. Takeo Akiba
23:28is the head of
23:30the Department of State Security.
23:32Mr. Takeo Akiba
23:34is the head of
23:36the Department of State Security.
23:38But he is also
23:40a very popular person
23:42in Japan.
23:44He is a very popular
23:46person in Japan.
23:48It is said that
23:50it's time for him
23:52to quit.
23:54Since he is a very
23:56powerful figure
23:58elsewhere,
24:00his dismissal
24:02may not affect
24:04I have the impression that there is a slight distance between the U.S. Department of State and the House of Representatives.
24:13For example, when I meet Mr. Son and hear his recent remarks, I have the impression that the relationship between the U.S. Department of State and the House of Representatives is not working well.
24:30Let's take a look at what will happen to the U.S.-Japan relationship after Trump's inauguration.
24:43Next, let's take a look at how to respond to Trump-style deals.
24:48Here are the things that President Trump will demand from Japan.
24:55It is seen that he is looking for direct investment and import of agricultural products from Japan in addition to increasing the cost of defense spending.
25:02In addition to that, it is likely to be a theme in the future to contribute to the semiconductor industry, such as lifting tariffs, importing energy such as oil and gas, etc.
25:12Mr. Kraft, what will happen?
25:14This is definitely not a pinch for Japan, and there are many opportunities.
25:20For example, why is Trump spending tariffs in the first place?
25:25After all, he wants direct investment in the U.S. and wants to create employment.
25:33Originally, Japan invested directly in the U.S.
25:39It has been the number one in the world for the past few years.
25:42Mr. Abe also appealed to the government that Japan has invested so much in Trump.
25:51If you do it well, Trump will see Japan as an active country.
25:56And energy.
25:57This is not a wish.
25:59President Biden didn't sell LNG or shale gas, but Japan has a demand for it.
26:05I think it is very effective for Japan to appeal to Trump.
26:17Mr. Akita, what do you think?
26:19I think there are many aspects that are definitely not a pinch for Japan.
26:25However, what Mr. Ishiba should say when he first met Trump is
26:33As Japan, we really want to support you to make the U.S. great again.
26:39We want you to be great in the U.S.
26:41At the same time, we also want to be great with the U.S. as an ally.
26:45That's why your MAGA, Make America Great Again,
26:50We will do everything we can to realize it.
26:54In this way, the expansion of U.S. energy exports,
26:59or the improvement of the U.S. economy is good for Japan.
27:03That's what I'm saying, but I think it's best to approach the scenario
27:08that Japan will be honored together.
27:11Rather than give and take,
27:14I think it's best to approach it with the phrase that we will be great together.
27:19I think that fits Trump's DNA the most.
27:23I'm a little worried about whether Mr. Ishiba can approach it himself.
27:30Yes.
27:31In December last year,
27:35Mr. Ishiba sought advice from Prime Minister Aso, who met with Mr. Trump in April.
27:40This is published by Jiji News.
27:42According to it, Mr. Aso said that Mr. Trump should make a conclusion first.
27:48On the other hand, Mr. Ishiba said that he was not good at it.
27:53In December last year, Mr. Ishiba met with Mr. Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Florida,
27:58and met with President Masayoshi Son of the SoftBank Group,
28:03who promised to invest $1 trillion in the U.S. in four years.
28:07Foreign Minister Iwaya and Minister of Economic and Industrial Affairs also met and exchanged views.
28:12After the meeting, Mr. Son said that he wanted to learn a lot from Mr. Trump
28:17because the relationship between Japan and the U.S. is important.
28:21Mr. Kraut, Mr. Trump is a businessman,
28:25so it's natural for him to make a conclusion first in the business world,
28:29but he said he wasn't good at it.
28:31In other words, he doesn't have a deal or a strategy against Trump.
28:37It's easy to make a conclusion if you make it in advance and meet,
28:42but if you try to talk to each other in a state of nothingness,
28:47you don't know what the conclusion will be.
28:50What's important is to show Trump what kind of deal,
28:54what kind of deal is beneficial to Japan,
28:57as Mr. Akita said earlier,
29:00and how each country will benefit from it.
29:04I think it's a problem that we can't show our plan.
29:12Mr. Korogi, what do you think so far?
29:15Well, Mr. Ishiba is a bit of an intellectual.
29:19He published a paper called Asian version of NATO.
29:23When I read it, I thought,
29:25Japan, the U.S., regional agreements, etc.
29:27I want to create an equal environment with the U.S.
29:30He publishes a paper.
29:32I don't think Trump thinks that way.
29:37He wants to increase the burden on Japan.
29:40Also, in the Chinese side of the press,
29:42Mr. Ishiba is reporting as a disciple of Kakuei Tanaka.
29:46So he wants to strengthen his relationship with China.
29:49In other words, he wants to keep a distance from the U.S.
29:55in an equal relationship.
29:57He's looking at China with high expectations.
30:01As Mr. Ishiba said earlier,
30:03we need to meet in person and talk.
30:07As I said earlier,
30:09we need to go through a process of approval.
30:14I see.
30:15I don't think Trump would like that.
30:17At least, since China is taking it that way,
30:19we need to meet as soon as possible
30:21and tell them that the U.S. is number one.
30:24As I said earlier,
30:26Mr. Son of SoftBank went to school in the U.S.
30:31I think he was in high school.
30:33He went to high school and university.
30:35What I thought was the opposite of China.
30:39Jack Ma of Alibaba was fired
30:44because he met Trump first.
30:47Oh, I see.
30:48He got angry with Xi Jinping.
30:52I see.
30:53He was fired because he was a member of a private company.
30:56Look at Japan.
30:57They don't listen to him.
30:59I see.
31:00Japan is a good country,
31:02but it has a lot of private power.
31:04But in a way,
31:07it's better to be a prime minister like Mr. Son.
31:11When you go out with a country like the U.S. or China,
31:15maybe that's the way to go.
31:17Mr. Kurata, I know Mr. Son very well.
31:20At first, he said he would contribute to Jack Ma
31:24by holding a big ceremony.
31:26But in fact,
31:28it didn't happen when I verified it later.
31:31Is that right?
31:32That's exactly right.
31:33Mr. Son's appeal is that he teaches people.
31:38He says he has a strong presence.
31:40He holds a big ceremony in the U.S.
31:42and does this much.
31:43But there is one thing to learn from him.
31:46For example,
31:47he raises the investment framework he has been thinking about since the K-7.
31:52He says he will contribute this much to Trump.
31:56SoftBank is a Japanese company,
31:58so it's a good idea to turn it upside down.
32:01It's not a bad thing to get information from Mr. Son,
32:05but personally,
32:06it's not that the prime minister and the foreign minister
32:09will come out on their own,
32:11but the foreign ministry or the prime minister-secretary
32:13will gather information,
32:15absorb it,
32:16and use it for the strategy of the prime minister-secretary.
32:19I think that's how it should be.
32:21That's why we have to feel the distance
32:23between the foreign ministry and the prime minister-secretary.
32:26But if it wasn't for Mr. Ichiba and Ms. Iwaya,
32:30Mr. Son wouldn't have met.
32:31That may be true.
32:32I see.
32:33What I'm most curious about is what will happen to taxes.
32:37That's right.
32:38During the presidential election,
32:4160% of all products in China,
32:44and 10% to 20% of all products outside of China
32:47were taxed.
32:49After the election,
32:50Mexico and Canada were declared to be taxed 25%,
32:55but not all countries in the world.
32:58However, CNN in the United States on the 8th
33:01said that Trump is considering taxing all products
33:05based on the International Emergency Economic Restrictions Act.
33:11In other words,
33:12he's looking for a legal framework
33:14where he can freely raise taxes
33:16without having to go through the Congress.
33:21Judging by his actions,
33:24Mr. Akita,
33:25it seems like he's thinking about unilateral taxes.
33:30What do you think?
33:31Well,
33:32this is a story about the exchange
33:35he was doing as a close associate of President Trump.
33:43His way of thinking changes overnight.
33:46For example,
33:47now he's buying Greenland
33:50or Panama.
33:52I think the leadership he's thinking about
33:57is a wake-up call type of leadership.
34:01He shakes things up
34:04that people don't realize.
34:07He's doing this to lead to the best results.
34:11I think he's doing this as a form of leadership.
34:14I don't think it's a policy.
34:16So, he's saying a lot about taxes,
34:19but I think he's going to decide
34:21based on various reactions.
34:25To be honest,
34:26I don't know the conclusion.
34:28It might change overnight.
34:30So,
34:31as I said earlier,
34:34rather than having a close associate
34:38and negotiating after he starts,
34:43he should be the president of an owner company.
34:46The Trump administration
34:48is not a Japanese-type organization
34:51like Toyota or Nissan.
34:54It's a complete owner company.
34:56It's not a manufacturer's owner.
34:58It's a real estate company's owner.
35:00I think he should be the president.
35:03One thing I'm curious about
35:05is the U.S. steel issue.
35:08Let's take a look.
35:11U.S. Steel Purchase Plan
35:13against the U.S.
35:15President Biden did not approve.
35:17President Biden said
35:18it would put the U.S. national security insurance
35:20and supply chain at risk.
35:22On the other hand,
35:23Prime Minister Ishiba said
35:24he wants to ask the U.S.
35:26for a stronger response
35:27to the U.S. investment concerns.
35:29Foreign Minister Iwaya said
35:30it's a shame that the U.S.
35:32has decided to stop purchasing
35:33because of the safety insurance concerns.
35:35The U.S. Economic and Industrial Minister
35:37said it's a shame and it's hard to understand.
35:39He said it's extremely important
35:41to have an environment where companies
35:43can safely invest.
35:44And about the purchase,
35:45President Trump said
35:47it would be more profitable
35:49and valuable for companies
35:51to invest in the U.S.
35:52Why is he trying to sell it now?
35:54He is opposed to the purchase.
35:56Mr. Kraft,
35:57Japan Steel
35:59is suing the U.S.
36:01current president.
36:03What do you think about this?
36:06I understand Japan Steel's claim.
36:10But the fundamental problem is
36:12that there is a political risk
36:13in the international market.
36:15How to overcome this
36:17is one of the challenges
36:20and responsibilities.
36:22The reason I'm concerned
36:24about President Trump's suing
36:26is that in 2014,
36:28a Chinese company sued
36:30President Obama
36:32on the same issue of CFIUS.
36:34Until then,
36:36the first phase of the Obama administration
36:38was more or less
36:40in the middle.
36:42While it was gradually moving
36:44towards China,
36:46President Obama personally
36:48sued President Obama
36:50on the same issue of CFIUS,
36:52which made it more or less
36:54in the middle.
36:56So, in that sense,
36:58the Trump administration
37:00may think
37:02President Obama
37:04sued President Obama,
37:06or President Obama
37:08sued President Obama,
37:10but I don't think
37:12it will affect
37:14Japan-U.S. relations.
37:16So, I think
37:18it's better
37:20to ignore it.
37:22It's different from
37:24President Obama's case.
37:26It's a different case from
37:28President Trump's case.
37:30So, I don't think
37:32President Trump
37:34sued President Biden.
37:36It's possible,
37:38but unfortunately,
37:40the US Steel issue
37:42wasn't so much
37:44a political issue.
37:46It was a political issue
37:48because of the US Steel issue.
37:50It became a hot topic
37:52when Japanese companies
37:54sued President Obama.
37:56So, I don't know
37:58what's going on.
38:00It's possible that
38:02the US Steel issue
38:04will be a political issue
38:06in the future.
38:08I'm sure
38:10the US Steel issue
38:12will be a political issue
38:14in the future.
38:18The third theme
38:20is how to deal
38:22with China.
38:24Looking at recent daily news,
38:26on November 15,
38:28Prime Minister Ishiba
38:30and Secretary of State
38:32Xi Jinping discussed
38:34how to build a stable
38:36and constructive relationship
38:38and on Nov. 30,
38:40the visa application process.
38:43And on the 25th, Foreign Minister Iwai visited China
38:46and had talks with Prime Minister Li Keqiang and Foreign Minister Wang Qigai
38:49about the visa application process for the Chinese people.
38:53And at the end of the week,
38:55the Japan-China-Japan Exchange Conference will be held.
38:58In February, there will be an invitation from Foreign Minister Wang Qigai.
39:02And after the spring,
39:03the Japan-China-Japan Exchange Conference will be held.
39:06Mr. Korogi, compared to the previous administration,
39:10the Ishiba administration seems to be actively improving relations with China.
39:14How do you see it, including how the Chinese side sees it?
39:18Well, the Chinese side has been exchanging from the beginning.
39:23In other words, the keyword is a disciple of Tanaka Kakuei.
39:27This word is flying around.
39:29In other words, Mr. Ishiba is a disciple of Tanaka Kakuei,
39:32so he can return to the mode of Japan-China-Japan-Japan-Japan-Japan-Japan-Japan.
39:35During that time, the U.S. policy on China-Japan relations also changed,
39:39and Japan was able to get on it.
39:43For example, this time, Foreign Minister Wang Qigai went to China as soon as possible.
39:48He was very happy.
39:49He's already got a car seat.
39:50Oh, is that so?
39:51In the future, the Japan-U.S. alliance will also be maintained,
39:56but the Japan-China alliance will be emphasized.
39:58In short, it will come with such a route.
40:01So I'm looking forward to it a lot.
40:02But it's a different problem from the U.S. point of view.
40:08However, Mr. Kishida was also looking forward to it at the beginning.
40:13He was in favor of Hato-ha.
40:15Mr. Abe was in favor of Takaha.
40:17It was Hato-ha, so Mr. Kishida said he could do it.
40:19However, it wasn't like that from the middle,
40:23so he teamed up with the U.S. and opposed China.
40:26I don't know what will happen in the future,
40:29but that's how I see it at the moment.
40:31Mr. Akita, as Mr. Koroichi said,
40:33how does the U.S. view this situation?
40:36Trump himself,
40:38and Secretary of State Marco Rubio,
40:40and Secretary of State Waltz,
40:44are pretty strong in the middle.
40:46And I think they're people who have sympathy for Japan.
40:52The current Ishiba administration is quite...
40:55I wouldn't say it's a shift, but the U.S. is important,
40:57but it's also very active in improving relations with China.
41:00Does the U.S. have any concerns about this?
41:05The U.S. doesn't want Japan to break through to the middle,
41:10and the tension in the Taiwan Strait to rise,
41:12and the risk of conflict to rise.
41:16So, the bottom line is that
41:18in order for Japan to build a stable relationship with Japan,
41:23and to try to remove various obstacles,
41:27the Washingtonians in the middle and upper classes
41:30should understand this.
41:32But the problem is, from the Chinese side,
41:35to put it simply, the current China's foreign policy
41:38is one strategy, and other measures.
41:42There's only one strategy, and that's the US-China strategy.
41:46How to deal with the U.S. is, to put it extremely, a big strategy.
41:52I think the U.S. is looking at the relationship with other countries
41:57as a cumulative function of how to use that big strategy.
42:00Of course, if you look at it in more detail,
42:03I think it's also thinking about how to change the bilateral relationship with Japan,
42:07but basically, it's about how to use it to conquer the U.S.,
42:12and it's going to reverse that and improve relations with Japan.
42:15For example, Australia, Europe,
42:17and even Africa.
42:20So, if you look at it from the U.S. perspective,
42:24when the Xi Jinping regime is aiming at that kind of chess,
42:27I think that Japan should not make a move that fits that.
42:33How about you, Mr. Kraft?
42:34No, this is similar to what Mr. Akita said,
42:38but if I add a little,
42:40the U.S. Secretary of State,
42:42well, under the Biden administration,
42:45what he said when he spoke in December last year was,
42:48while the U.S. welcomes Japan-China relations to become better,
42:55in my personal opinion,
42:57I feel that the U.S. is a little ahead of the Ishiba administration.
43:03If this is replaced by the Trump administration,
43:05well, looking at it from the perspective of the right-wing,
43:08Japan is completely shifting towards China,
43:11and is keeping a distance from the U.S.
43:13So, if you make a mistake, it's going to be a pretty complicated fracture.
43:19That's what I heard.
43:23One of the things that is being talked about right now is the exchange of visas.
43:29This is a measure taken by the Chinese side
43:31to restore the short-term stay visa of Japanese tourists to their original status,
43:37to the status before the coronavirus.
43:41The Japanese side has taken a number of measures to restore the visa for Chinese tourists.
43:47For example, the extension of the 10-year multi-visa period,
43:52the extension of the 15- to 30-day stay visa for tourists,
43:56and so on.
44:00Recently, there has been a lot of talk from the conservative members of the People's Party
44:06that there was no pre-emptive measure.
44:10There is also a lot of criticism from Foreign Minister Iwaya.
44:15What do you think about this?
44:18I've been watching this for a long time,
44:20but it was quite late to return Japan to its original form.
44:27Certainly, in Europe and the major Asian countries, it was much earlier.
44:32So, the countries that had a bad relationship with China were lagging behind.
44:36I thought they were doing it.
44:39It's the same with the issue of processing costs.
44:41So, they were doing it as a card.
44:44As a Japanese side, it's a hassle to go to China for business.
44:50So, I think they welcome the resumption of the visa.
44:52Also, as a response from the Japanese side,
44:55the Chinese side has said that they want to be exempted from the visa.
44:58Oh, they want to have a more intense negotiation?
45:01Yes, they want to be equal.
45:02That's impossible.
45:04So, the Japanese side has put a price on it.
45:08Also, they've been kind to China for 10 years.
45:12This is for the rich.
45:13I think they're trying to make it more profitable.
45:15Yes, they have a check for the assets.
45:18In that sense, they want the rich to invest more and more in Japan.
45:21In fact, it's already happening.
45:22It's a real estate or something.
45:24So, what China wanted the most was a comprehensive exemption.
45:29If they do that, Hong Kong will be on the brake.
45:32It's going to be a big deal for them to come in from China.
45:35That's a bit of a broken shape for China.
45:38It's a very unreasonable demand.
45:39Also, they've sold it at a very high price.
45:42They've been holding it up for a long time.
45:45Yes, it's a valid relationship.
45:47Let's make it valid from now on.
45:49It's a way of giving them a souvenir.
45:51But it's not like they've given Japan a great service.
45:56It's a bit too late.
45:58It's a bit like they've run out of steam.
46:01Well, I'm sure they want an economic recovery.
46:06On the other hand, there's the issue of over-tourism.
46:08There's also the issue of city planning, so there's a lot of concern.
46:11On the other hand, what the Japanese people are concerned about is
46:14whether they're conveying what they should be saying.
46:17There are some thorns that are stuck in the Japanese-Chinese relationship.
46:22In this way, the import and export of aquaculture is likely to move.
46:28There's always been a movement of both seas and air.
46:31There's the issue of the Japanese high-speed rail, and there's the issue of Taiwan.
46:36From your point of view, is the current Ishiba administration
46:39properly conveying what it should be saying to China, or is it being conveyed here?
46:43There was a problem with the mistake in the announcement.
46:46In the Chinese announcement, when Foreign Minister Iwaya went there,
46:49he apologized.
46:51It's like he apologized.
46:53He expressed his deep remorse and apology through the Murayama Dialogue.
46:58Well, Japan didn't say that.
47:00I saw both announcements.
47:02It's completely different.
47:03China didn't write anything that Japan asked for.
47:06Well, that's the way it is.
47:07But if it's written as if it didn't say anything, that's a problem,
47:11so the Japanese side also protested.
47:14But what I was most concerned about was that
47:16they found another V at the timing of the announcement.
47:20When Foreign Minister Iwaya went there, there was no Ryokushinpan.
47:25That's why the top-down order came from above, so they didn't do it.
47:31So I thought they were underestimating us.
47:33If you look at it from the order of events,
47:36the Japanese side was ahead of us.
47:38Last year, Foreign Minister Iwaya went to Japan.
47:42It's the order of events that the Japanese side is ahead of us, right?
47:44And the fact that the Japanese side is ahead of us means that
47:46what China is reporting is that
47:49they are putting a lot of emphasis on China.
47:53So we have to put up with it.
47:55First of all, it's a matter of processing water.
47:59Processing water is still
48:02processing water after the Foreign Minister Iwaya's announcement.
48:05Oh, they say they're going to reopen the fisheries, but they call it the same thing.
48:09Yes.
48:10I don't even have to avoid saying that it's processing water.
48:12But this processing water is the cause.
48:14Processing water is the cause of propaganda.
48:17It's like scribbling on a piece of paper or throwing a stone into a Japanese school.
48:24It's like saying, stop using the word processing water.
48:28It's like saying, you have to stop using it.
48:31If you don't cut that kind of card, it's very easy for Japan to do it from the other side.
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