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00:00It is week number 18 in the National Football League to think where we have been and where it
00:06ends in the regular season finale weekend around the NFL that starts with a doubleheader on
00:12Saturday, 14 games on Sunday to determine everything for the NFL postseason and even
00:20the National Football League draft and that first overall pick in 2025 as well. 14 of our 16 games
00:28have some sort of significance for a playoff spot, a playoff seed, a divisional title or
00:36what it means for that first overall selection come this April in the NFL draft. So motivation
00:43and mentality a huge part of every handicap you will have for week number 18. If this is your
00:50first, if this is your first time with us on a football Friday, sad it's taken you so long,
00:56but welcome to kick off a new year in 2025. So a reminder of our weekend pick six, our six
01:04favorite bets across a variety of categories for an NFL weekend slate, two games Saturday,
01:1014 on Sunday, our favorite touchdown score, somebody to hit pay dirt anytime TD price,
01:16our favorite money line underdog to keep it close and pull off the outright upset,
01:21our favorite under of the weekend, then we'll go to the alt markets, a sprinkle of plus money
01:27for a favorite alternate line, our favorite yardage prop of the weekend, a lot of incentives
01:33out there entering the regular season finales. And of course, we combine forces for a two leg
01:39six point teaser. So anytime touchdown scoring market, germinary, please begin who and in what
01:47game? All right, well, I don't want to wait to cash this ticket, Ben. So I'm just going to go
01:53with a, a Ravens and Browns look here. And I am going to go with who else? Mark Andrews is
02:01an anytime touchdown. Why? Well, all he's done is catch a touchdown at five straight and nine
02:06of the last 10 games. He is the go to red zone guy for Lamar. Once again, he has 10 TDs in his
02:14last 11 games. And it's funny because he hadn't scored a touchdown. Then if you remember what
02:20almost a year, a full calendar year before the first game against the Browns in which that's
02:26when he finally got off to Schneiden. Then ever since then, Lamar has got his security blanket
02:32back. And I think very much. So he will once again, hit pay dirt in this game. Hindleman Lamar
02:38will, will hook up probably early in this game. And then we won't see him in the second half.
02:45First game of the weekend tomorrow, Saturday afternoon in the charm city for 30 PM Eastern
02:51time. That's slated kick. Baltimore is a 19 and a half point favorite against Bailey Zappy
02:58in the Cleveland Browns. The Ravens simply need an outright victory to clinch the AFC North and
03:03the three seed within the AFC playoff picture. We expect that to happen. We expect it to be all
03:10Baltimore early and often again, the Ravens just an outright win over the Browns to be that AFC
03:18North champion, a three seed in the AFC. It's the largest spread for an NFL game that we have seen
03:24since the 2021 season, Joe, much like you. I don't want to wait until Sunday to cash that anytime
03:31touchdown price. Let's go T Higgins at minus one 10, as the bangles will head to Pittsburgh in a
03:37game they must have to keep their AFC postseason chances alive against the Steelers. And the one
03:45thing that is not held back the bangles this year, it's the passing attack. And overall, I guess you
03:51could say it is the offense. Of course, T Higgins got all three touchdown passes the Joe burrow
03:56through a weekend ago against Denver, but it's not just that recency bias clouding my mind.
04:03It's the fact that T Higgins has scored in three straight games, six of the last seven. And oh,
04:07by the way, he might want to make one final statement in those tiger stripes as a bangle,
04:13because more than likely this could be T Higgins his last game as a member of Cincinnati for a
04:19Cincy franchise that doesn't like to pay its most supremely talented wide receivers. They're already
04:25going to have to ante up for Jamar chase T Higgins on the franchise tag with maybe the last laugh.
04:32And if Cincy is going to keep pace in Pittsburgh tomorrow night, it's all the offense you could
04:37want. Once again, minus one 10 for T Higgins to hit pay to moneyline underdog numbers to know for
04:45the weekend. And Joe, that could mean right here, right now, the perfect time to get down before
04:51some of those stakes might start to dwindle as these next 48 hours play out.
04:57Yeah, it's, it's going to be, it's going to be very interesting here, Ben, I think in week 18.
05:04I do think I love your T Higgins bet first, first of all here, because there are going to be points
05:10against the Pittsburgh Steelers because the last three games, they've given up 90 in that defense.
05:15And I anticipate we could probably get a few more there. I'm going to look at another interesting
05:21game here. Ben won that by the time your game is over there with the Steelers and the Bengals,
05:26right? By the time the Chargers and the Raiders go off. And we talked about this with Mike Blewett.
05:33This could be an absolute nothing to the Chargers. The Chargers could be locked into the number six
05:37seed and might absolutely decide to rest some starters here. In the meantime, the Raiders
05:43have been very competitive. They actually have a two game winning streak here, if you can believe
05:48that. And there is no reason for me to think at home that with, oh, don't figure they might have,
05:56they have actually found a quarterback that everyone likes to play for in O'Connell.
06:00He looks competent. Brock Bowers looking to set all sorts of rookie records. Jacoby Myers,
06:06a legit weapon. I don't know. To me, I think Antonio Pierce wants to win. He doesn't care
06:13about the draft and the Chargers may very well not have any reason to play in this game.
06:18I'll take him on the money line. I got no problem with that. Joe, I think it's a great bet,
06:23especially because I think Pittsburgh somehow, some way actually wins tomorrow night, albeit in
06:28a high scoring game against the Bengals. Don't forget the Steelers who might not win the AFC
06:32North if Baltimore, as the odds and all of us expect, quickly dispatch of the Cleveland Browns.
06:38But the Steelers still desperately want that five seed top wildcard spot to not have to play the
06:44Ravens in the opening round, but rather head to Houston to take on the Texans. If that is the case,
06:51if Pittsburgh wins, the Chargers are locked in to the sixth seed. Do they need to really put
06:56everybody out there against the Raiders? And Joe, if that is the case, the Bolts aren't going to be
07:01a four and a half point favorite. That line is going to work one of two ways following Saturday's
07:06slate. If the Steelers lose, could the Chargers be more than a touchdown favorite? It might make
07:12sense to bet that now. Yeah, if the Steelers win, there's a chance the Raiders end up as a slight
07:18pick-em favorite. Love the look right there. And because the Raiders have won two straight as a
07:24slight favorite in both, including last week against the Saints, the Raiders can't get the
07:29number one overall pick, which is what we thought for most of this year in Sin City. I am fascinated,
07:35by the way, to see what Mark Davis is going to do with his head coach in Antonio Pierce
07:40entering next season. Joe, I'm going to trust the head coach in Houston at his word. D'Amico
07:47Ryans has said that I'm going to play everybody. I expect everybody to be ready to play on Sunday
07:55in Nashville against the Titans. The Texans don't have anything to play for, necessarily,
08:01in terms of stakes and seed line. They are locked in to the four spot in the AFC. And yeah, Houston,
08:08one of the vision in the AFC South. And yep, they've done so for a second consecutive year
08:13with Ryans and CJ Stroud. But this Houston team winning the AFC South wasn't the hope this year
08:20in H-Town. It was be a true conference contender. And the Texans entering the postseason don't look
08:26anywhere close to that. CJ Stroud has not been as good in his sophomore season as his rookie
08:33campaign. And I think D'Amico Ryans has said everybody better get ready because we need to
08:38be playing our best brand of football entering that opening round game at home, of which they
08:44are not right now. So I think we might actually see the starters early on Sunday in Tennessee.
08:52And Joe, even if we see the reserves, the Titans shouldn't be laying a point to anybody.
08:58I'll take the Texans outright on the money line as the underdog on Sunday. Plenty more from the
09:05pick six over the final 20 minutes or so of this football Friday on the early line on sports grid
09:12on the other side of the break. Plenty more bets to get to you for week number 18. Call next.
09:19Live right here on a football Friday. We continue our pick six for week number 18
09:24around the National Football League. We've given you our favorite anytime touchdown score,
09:28our favorite money line underdog to pull off that outright upset in the regular season finale
09:33weekend. Don't worry if you missed them. They'll be on the screen as we continue to give out some
09:38best bets for this final regular season weekend in the NFL. Now it's time for the best under
09:44of the weekend. Joe and Eric, which game you looking at? Yeah, I'm not going to overthink it
09:50here, Ben. I'm going to go to New England and watch them score next to no points in this one
09:59here. And listen, I get it. Buffalo is going to start Josh Allen so he can continue with the
10:06Ironman record. That's good. But listen, Mitch Trubisky, he's a he's a quality backup. He's
10:13capable of certainly running the offense here. But the Pats, they've already said basically
10:20they're not going with their rookie in this one. Jacoby Brissett is, you know, let's face it,
10:26an injury waiting to happen here. Yeah, I I think Buffalo wins this. I don't think they take any
10:32chances. And we just cannot trust offensively anything that the Patriots will bring to the
10:39table. I think Buffalo's defense is going to limit them. I don't think they want to sweat
10:45anything out like they did a couple of weeks ago in Orchard Park. When it comes to get all down
10:50to it, it feels like a 20 to three kind of game to me, Ben. And I will just say this, right? We've
10:56talked about a lot of teams and places and spots this week where an NFL organization is going to
11:02rest its most significant players or its starters. If they have known that within the franchise now
11:08for a week or maybe longer than that, they're also still preparing to win a football game with
11:14the guys that are there. Mitchell Trubisky is not the starter, but he's been prepping like a starter.
11:20Although Josh Allen is probably going to start and take a knee or hand the football off to preserve
11:26his 115 consecutive start streak, the longest active among NFL quarterbacks. I say that,
11:32Joe, because the depth for the bills was the question this year with so many familiar faces
11:37on either side of the football leaving Western New York this offseason. How would Buffalo respond?
11:43Well, they've won 13 games, maybe 14, and they're going to have the second best price to win the
11:48AFC entering this postseason. I agree. I think the bills win this game. If the Patriots do lose,
11:55New England will have the number one overall pick entering the 2025 NFL draft. No idea what
12:01the Pats are going to do at their head coaching spot. I think it would be premature to fire
12:06Gerard Mayo, but that's just my two cents. My favorite under in Lambeau, Bears, Packers under 41
12:14and a half. Green Bay needs this game to hopefully get the sixth seed, but they don't control their
12:19destiny in doing so. If Washington beats Dallas on the road, then bada bing, bada boom, the
12:24commanders are the sixth seed in the NFC playoff picture. But Green Bay won't know that until later
12:30on in the game, perhaps to see how Washington is faring at the star against Dallas. Green Bay is
12:36going to be in command of this game. The Bears scored three points last week at home against
12:42the Seahawks in a game Seattle needed in Chicago really didn't. The Bears have given their last
12:48efforts of the year. They've got a tumultuous offseason to figure out what to do with Caleb
12:53Williams. Of course, he will return in the Windy City. He has been promising at times and their
12:58head coach. And I think Green Bay limits anything Chicago is going to do a one-sided affair. I can
13:04see the Packers winning 28 to three and then checking out in the second half because they do
13:10not need it. Green Bay in its last five games as a favorite under in four Chicago in this 10 game
13:17losing skid under in seven of 10, give me the under 41 and a half between the Bears and the
13:23Packers show. I love it, Ben. I also happen to think that and funny because my old line happens
13:32to also be coming from your game there, Ben, and I'm going with a yeah, and it's not going to get
13:38you're not going to see this very often. But how about a kicker prop? How about Brandon McManus
13:42to get two or more field goals in this game here? And listen, I, you know, I'm kind of like you
13:49here. I don't think we're going to get a ton of points, but I also don't see there being a lot of
13:54fourth and three. Let's go for it. Fourth and five. Let's go for it. I think McManus is going
14:00to have plenty of opportunities here to be able to to get some field goals in this one. In fact,
14:07opposing kickers have made two or more field goals in eight of the Bears last 10 games. So I like
14:14McManus's chances here. He's only made 17 field goals in 10 games with them, but I think he's
14:20going to have plenty of opportunities here to test that leg and get into a rhythm. I think
14:26Green Bay wins it, but I think there's a few field goals along the way. You put Brandon McManus in a
14:32must-win spot for a team, and I'm still thinking, yeah, the Denver Broncos do need to handle business
14:37against the Chiefs, but McManus no longer in mile high, of course, has been a very solid kicker
14:43for Green Bay, who the pack have been dealing with some kicking woes the last few seasons. My
14:49alt line, the Miami Dolphins, laying six and a half against the New York Jets. Because of some
14:55uncertainty around the starting quarterback for Miami, the alt market is not out yet, but they're
15:01a point and a half favorite against the New York Jets. Miami is going to win this game, and they're
15:06going to win this game to present you an opportunity with some plus money. I don't care if it's Tyler
15:11Huntley. In fact, if it is, fine. Guy was electric last week in Cleveland, and how many points did
15:18the Dolphins win by as a two and a half point favorite against the Browns that have nothing left?
15:2317. I think the Dolphins can win this game by a touchdown. Oh, it's Aaron Rodgers. It's Devontae
15:28Adams. It's Garrett Wilson. That team has never had anything in the two years Aaron Rodgers has
15:33been there, certainly not this season. They have lacked any little bit of juice they might have
15:38left. It's over. It's done. It's kaput. Maybe on Aaron Rodgers' career by the end of Sunday, and the
15:45Dolphins will need that game. Miami wins by at least a touchdown. I think the number would be
15:51plus 172, something like that, if I am doing my odds making correctly. For the Finns, Joe,
15:58laying six and a half. They're only a point and a half favorite in East Rutherford on Sunday.
16:03Yeah, I love it, Ben. Again, yeah, I think people are still too fixated on the fact of
16:10how inept they were earlier this season with out-to-it offense, and I think Huntley showed
16:16it last week against a pretty good Cleveland defense in the conditions. He's more than
16:20capable of doing enough to beat bad teams. Time for incentives now, as we will talk yardage props
16:27on the other side of the break, whether in a contract or a career legacy, and then we combine
16:34forces for a two-leg, six-point teaser to pick six next. We round out the week 18 pick six, which of
16:41course will round out the regular season in 2024 in the National Football League on the opening
16:47weekend of 2025. Our favorite yardage prop of this weekend, Joe, you begin. Where do you start?
16:55Might there be some incentive for this player going over a number on Sunday?
17:01No, I think we already know the answer to that one, Ben, and yes, there is, and I'm going to
17:07Seattle, which has actually Geno Smith, the quarterback, with plenty of incentives there as
17:15far as yardage prop. Yardage goes for him on the season and completion percentage, and also one of
17:23his actually both his main targets, but JSM there has a plenty of incentive here. His number, Ben,
17:31pretty light, I believe, for his receiving yards. I had it at 67 and a half, and yeah, I don't get
17:40it. He has already surpassed his number in eight of his last 10 games. The Rams have allowed the
17:46most receptions and receiving yards to slot receivers this season. I don't see how he doesn't
17:53feast. Also, he's got 180 receiving yards in the first game against them. I think it has no problem
18:02getting up and over, helping Geno Smith get over his yardage for the season to help him cash
18:09an extra two million and also adding to his possibility of also gaining all sorts of
18:16incentives for yardage this season. So, I like him and DK Metcalf for that matter to have big games.
18:23The Rams are resting. LA already winning the NFC West. They can be the three or the four,
18:28but I guess it's not overly important for Sean McVay to be the three seed where things stand
18:34right now. So, Jimmy Garoppolo makes his first start for LA. Because of it, though,
18:40Seattle a six and a half point favorite in so far. I'm going to Mike Evans over his receiving
18:46yards prop. Now, we use the lovely FanDuel Sportsbook, as I'm sure you can see with the
18:50logos and the sponsorships, throughout our three hours on TEL. Maybe this number is available in
18:56other spots. I don't care. I'm an FD guy through and through. When the number is posted, it's
19:02probably going to be 84 and a half. Why do I say it? Mike Evans needs 85 yards to get to 1,000 for
19:09the 11th consecutive year in his National Football League career. That would be all 11 seasons in his
19:15NFL career. That was him with a hamstring injury walking off the field. It seemed unlikely that
19:21Evans would have the opportunity to get to 1K, but he has been prolific the last three weeks or so
19:27for Tampa and has the opportunity to do so this week in a game the Bucs must have as a two
19:35touchdown favorite at home against the Saints. If Tampa wins, they claim the NFC South. And to do
19:40that, they'll be feeding Mike Evans early, often, and I believe frequently on Sunday. So, over the
19:47yardage prop, whatever it turns out to be. Now, time, Joe, to combine forces for our final 6.2-leg
19:55teaser of this National Football League regular season. Your leg first. Yeah, a couple of different
20:01ways to look at this here, Ben, but I ended up going with a game that you talked about earlier,
20:07and it makes sense, right? Your Moneyline underdog was Houston. They should not be probably a
20:13underdog in this spot. So, I got no problem at one and a half teasing them up over to a touchdown.
20:19I'm confident in them as well to be able to handle business against Tennessee. So, yeah,
20:25I'm going to go with the Texans over a touchdown here as my leg of the teaser. Completely agree,
20:33Joe. I picked the Texans to win outright as my Moneyline underdog. D'Amico Ryan says that
20:39everybody better be ready to play against the Titans, even if it's the third stringers. I don't
20:44think the Titans should be favored in any NFL football game the remainder of this season. I'll
20:50take the Commanders down from a six-and-a-half-point spread to a pick-em price against the Cowboys.
20:55Washington wants to head back to Dallas to win one for the skipper in Dan Quinn against his
21:01former team, a divisional rival, and if the Commanders win, they earn the sixth seed in the
21:06NFC. Is it really that important, six or seven? Yeah, because the seventh seed has to head to
21:12Philadelphia. The sixth seed will either go to LA to take on the Rams or the Buccaneers in Tampa,
21:19and that sixth seed, if it is Washington or maybe even Green Bay, might be favored,
21:24albeit on the road, to win a playoff game in the opening round. Listen, we don't have enough time
21:30to run through it all. Just put up Joe's pick six once again so everybody can see. Mental snapshot,
21:36take it in. Visual image, it's beautiful. Now to mine. Week 18 pick six. Love it. Winners,
21:44sweep the board. Joe and Eric, we'll see you this weekend on Sports Grid. We appreciate the time,
21:50as always. To all of you, enjoy week 18. Have a great weekend. We'll talk on Monday.