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00:00If you are watching this Football Friday on the early line, even if you're out there and not watching the early line, you won't hear this comment, but still, you are living through a historic day in college football.
00:14Today is the first ever game day of the first ever 12-team college football playoff in the history of the sport.
00:24It is the 11th year of the CFP. It is the largest field we have ever seen.
00:30And Joe, I do think before we dive into the matchups, and we'll talk about all four throughout this college football and a football Friday, including the CFP opener tonight in South Bend between Notre Dame and Indiana, but we take a moment to remind ourselves.
00:47Right? Because through the month of November, in the homestretch of this college football campaign, we all got mad at the rankings and the committee and who should be in and who should not be in strength of schedule and strength of record and resume and everything that goes in to selecting this 12-team field.
01:06But a lot of us were in favor of expansion. And now we get to celebrate this ceremonious day around college football. It is the largest ever field we have seen in the postseason have an opportunity to win a national championship.
01:22We wanted games to matter on the gridiron to prove how good a team or how successful a team might actually be.
01:30You now have it. It is the largest ever field competing for a national championship. It is the most games necessary to win a national championship. So we welcome all of you to the first ever 12-team college football playoff. And we bask in the glory of this 12-team bracket.
01:50Yeah. And, you know, Ben, I've been saying it all week here. For as much commentary that we heard about this 12-team, this push for a 12-team playoff, and now that it's here, for the most part, listen, I don't think this is one of the rare situations where we're not really arguing like we did with, oh, the fifth and sixth best team in the country gets shut out with a 14-playoff.
02:18I mean, the 12 teams here are the most deserving 12 teams. Are they the best 12 teams? That is up for debate. But they are certainly the most deserving because they handle business when it mattered the most. And that's why a team like Clemson is here. And you can't fault them for that.
02:40And the game results mattered at the end. Who you beat was significant. Who you lost to also had to be added in equally to that conversation. Do we need to fix the format? Sure. Should there be guaranteed opening round buys for conference champs? Probably not. Those are future problems. Let's live in the present and enjoy what we are going to see.
03:04And that starts tonight in South Bend, Indiana. We'll talk about the first game on this Friday night in the college football playoff between the Hoosiers and the Fighting Irish in the in-stage showdown in just mere moments. But back to the bracket, because now, like we see come March, you have to paint the path to a semifinal, to a Final Four, to a national championship as well.
03:29And here are the corresponding odds. And just quickly, again, as we learned yesterday, but frankly, it was expected. Carson Beck, more than likely not going to play for Georgia in this college football playoff, dealing with the right elbow UCL injury he suffered in the SEC championship. But let's go back to those prices.
03:48The Dawgs, after selection Sunday, after the SEC championship, even winning that conference crown, Joe, were a five to one number to win a national title tied for the third best price. That's where it remains, even with the news of what was expected that Carson Beck more than likely will not be Georgia's quarterback throughout the duration of the CFP.
04:10Yeah, it's going to be fascinating, Ben, because those numbers reflect a lot of chalk, don't they? They're not expecting a dark horse in any way, shape or form, it appears here with these numbers.
04:26So there is an opportunity. Do we get absolute chaos here in the first 12-team college football playoff championship? Or is it just going to be as chalky as it gets? And ultimately, we're going to get the two favorites here to begin with, ultimately playing against one other for a national championship, a la BCS, Ben.
04:52Yeah, absolutely, Joe. And there is something to be said for those odds and the bracket, right? A lot was made about Oregon, the number one overall seed, the only undefeated FBS program this year, a perfect 13-0 record with a Big Ten title to its name in its first year in the conference. And they await the winner of the 8-9 matchup.
05:15Hey, that happens in postseason brackets, teams that underperform in the regular season that earn a wildcard spot or a lower seed line than perhaps we anticipated. And it makes it more difficult for a top seed. Oregon's still the favorite to win a national championship. And although their path is not exactly easy, I still expect the Ducks to be there at the end of the road.
05:39Texas does have a favorable path. Penn State, perhaps the most favorable. Again, some of those at-large teams, Joe, that did not win a conference championship might benefit the most from this format. So before we look at the opening game that you see on the top left, Notre Dame and Indiana, I ask you this, you mentioned it was chalked from the odds and numbers perspective.
06:03Is there a bet that you would want to make on this Friday before we get to the opening game of the CFP later tonight for a team to win that national championship?
06:13Yeah, I would bet Clemson. That's what I would do. I would have a few bucks on Clemson with an opportunity here to be able to cash out as we get a little bit closer here, Ben. Clemson to me coming in at number 12. How is that path? Terrible. Anybody thinking Texas is just going to roll them, I think you're out of your mind.
06:39Arizona State, I mean, kudos, great season, but you're going to tell me Clemson can't beat Arizona State and then play? I just, I think Clemson is the value right now. If you want to place a wager, you don't have to go crazy at that number, Ben, but if they win two games, boy oh boy, you're going to be sitting pretty with that ticket.
07:01There is no doubt a 60 to one price on the team that has the most college football playoff experience of this entire field. That would be Davo and the Tigers in their seventh ever CFP second most in history, only behind Alabama with two national championships matching the most in this field.
07:21That would be Georgia at a 60 to one number might present some value, but that would sound like to me, Joe and Harry, you expect the Tigers to head into Austin tomorrow and give Texas a game. We'll talk about that one in just a little bit, but it does start tonight on what we expect to be a cold and wintry Friday evening in South Bend, Indiana, and a pantheon of this sport.
07:48Notre Dame stadium under the watchful gaze of touchdown Jesus, we will have the first ever on campus playoff game in the history of college football.
07:59Number seven, Notre Dame seed line, number 10, Indiana, also seed line face off tonight in an end state showdown to begin the opening round of the CFP seven and a half point spread Joe in favor of the Irish, a total that has remained pretty steady at 51 and a hook. Where do you begin your breakdown for this matchup tonight in South Bend?
08:21Yeah, cold, Ben, very, very cold there tonight and it's going to look at two might be some snow. Like you said, I think it's the perfect matchup to kick off the college football playoff with this new era. I'll say this.
08:39They have won sixth grade against top 25 teams. That is the longest active streak in college football right now. They should win this game. Whether or not it's easy for him remains to be seen, but I do like the Irish to win this game.
08:56Key matchup in this football game. Notre Dame 10th best rushing offense in the country against Indiana's best rushing defense in all of the sport. I you only allowing 71 yards per game on the ground this season. I use quarterback by the way, is a guy from Ontario. They call the maple missile. That's Curtis work. He's not scared of no snow.
09:20The college football playoff for the first ever time in a 12 team format kicks off tonight in snowy South Bend between Notre Dame and Indiana. It's the 710 matchup. Our first game of a tripleheader in a college football playoff tomorrow on a Saturday starts early.
09:39Noon Eastern Time in a place that is known as happy. Happy Valley State College, Pennsylvania inside Beaver Stadium. Also expected to be quite chilly in late December. Surprise surprise on campus playoff games. A thing of beauty. It's the 16 Penn State with an opportunity.
10:01Where it's first college football playoff appearance to win some marquee matchups against the 11 seed in the final at-large team into this field. That would be SMU eight and a half point spread Joe in favor of the Nittany Lions at home. Our total stands at 53 and a half. How do you approach the opening game of three tomorrow in the college football playoff?
10:25So this is a big number Ben and I get it. Happy Valley at 12 noon is better than a whiteout at 8 o'clock at night. Ben, you know this. So that's a break for SMU here. But listen, Penn State has played two great teams this year and lost to both of them, right?
10:48Their last game against Oregon in the Big Ten championship. They lost to Ohio State at home back in early November. Now, they've got another shot of taking on a ranked team here in SMU who's got a really good offense. So cold. There's going to be some double digit wins, maybe a chance of showers.
11:12I think the home field is worth more here for Penn State than it is in some of these other games, but it just feels like exactly what we saw with SMU against Clemson. It just feels like in the second half SMU is going to have an opportunity to somehow. I don't think they win, but I feel like they're going to somehow make this game appear final score wise that it was closer than it really was.
11:40And that's the only thing that's stopping me from actually laying the eight and half in here. I think Penn State wins, but I think SMU's offense gives them a shot at the backdoor cover late.
11:51Yeah, you know, it's really interesting as well. Joe is where this scenario is finding both of these teams from that spread perspective. Penn State is laying more than a touchdown at home in State College Penn State as a favorite under James Franklin has been downright elite since 2022 33 games as a favorite.
12:12The Nittany Lions are 32 and 1 straight up. They are 23 9 and 1 against the spread. That's ridiculously profitable SMU this year twice as an underdog winning outright in both both games over both featuring at least 61 points that 53 and a half feels as though it is in danger.
12:34The Stangs played seven games this year against FBS teams above 500 in those seven games. They went over in six of seven their last seven outside of the loss to BYU allowing at least 25 points in those final six games to the opposition in average Joe even including BYU's 18 in that early season matchup of 28.3 points per game.
13:01So SMU against the better competition has allowed a lot of scoring and maybe you're thinking Penn State elite defense across the board. You're correct in that assumption, by the way, but the Nittany Lions offensively have been much better in the final month of this season than any other juncture of the regular season over in their last four in their final five Big Ten games.
13:23Joe averaging better than 38 points per game in their first five Big Ten games just 24.4 points per game. But a lot of people love the over and it keeps me a little bit skeptical. I look at Nicholas Singleton one of the versatile running backs for Penn State over his receiving yards prop of 34 and a half against SMU tomorrow.
13:46The stains give up a lot of yardage through the air. I think Drew Aller could have a pretty big day, but I'll look at Nicholas Singleton and focus on his receiving yards number now Joe the second game of our three tomorrow in the CFP that I am very excited to break down with you based on what you said earlier as we set the stage for the for this first ever 12 team field, Texas, the largest favorite in the opening round 11 and a half points at home in Austin.
14:15Taking on the 12 seed Clemson who of course was that bid Steeler in the ACC championship total stands at 51 and a hook. The reason I'm intrigued Joe is because you said the Tigers at a 60 to one price to win a national championship presented some value, but of course you got to win some games certainly past the opening round to make that even a cash out option.
14:41Are you saying you think Clemson is live tomorrow for the outright upset in Austin?
14:47Well, I mean, let's if we're being realistic here, this Texas team. I mean, listen, they have been a top five team all year. I love the Texas defense, but I also loved it last year, Ben, when they lost 22 to 19 against a shorthanded Georgia team in the SEC title game.
15:08We have seen this over the last couple of years with Sarkisian. They get to these big games here and it's either by the skin of their teeth or they outright lose. You have got a Clemson team that has been in playoff mode, Ben, for what the last six weeks of the season.
15:26A lot of people counted out Clemson two months ago and a lot of people counted them out the minute that they got absolutely destroyed by Georgia in the first game. But you know what we've seen in typical Dabo fashion, he's got all five star recruits there as well.
15:43There is nothing about this game that screams blowout to me. The only thing is roles are reversed. Dabo's playing with house money and Sarkisian has all the pressure in the world in this game to get his team ready. They may win, but boy, oh boy, covering 11 and a half. Yeah, I don't think so.
16:05The Longhorns were not a great cover team within the SEC, favored in all 13 games this year. 7-6 against the spread, 4-0 in non-conference action, but then you get to the elite of the elite in conference play, just 3-6 ATS. Clemson a dog only twice the bookends of their season. They got hammered by Georgia in the opener. They won outright as the short dog to earn this spot, winning in the ACC championship.
16:35We've got some odds movement as we get ready for the college football playoff that starts tonight in the 12-team era in South Bend. Notre Dame now less than a touchdown favorite at home. The Irish now just a six and a half point favorite against Indiana. We have seen Texas work up to a 12 and a half point favorite. Total down ever so slightly to 15.
17:06And Joe, I didn't just want to make a point about that total because it feels like an under if the Longhorns are going to win comfortably and even get close to covering as a 12 and a half point favorite now or even close to double digits as you see there. Texas is elite defensively. Second best scoring defense in the country. Third best total defense in the sport.
17:28Clemson outside of the game against SMU in the ACC title has played four other teams above 500 entering the ACC title. They were one and three straight up. Owen four against the spread under in all four averaging just 15 and a half points per game. Basically to say the Tigers offense has struggled against the best of the best in Texas is so much more sound through the air defense.
17:58Offensively than SMU was and the Tigers rushing attack has been non-existent in their last three games against FBS competition. Something to pay attention to tomorrow in the game in Austin are second of three in the triple header.
18:15The nightcap on a Saturday at the shoe in Columbus. It's the 8-9 matchup between Ohio State and Tennessee 8-9 in seed, but six in seven. Just so you know, in terms of those college football playoff rankings, the Buckeyes more than a touchdown favorite seven and a half points at home. The total stands at 46 and a hook Joe, a lot of people expecting defense to be on display tomorrow night in Columbus.
18:45How about you?
18:46Yes, and listen, Ohio State's defense. Very good. Tennessee's defense highly underrated all year long here, Ben. The other interesting part about Tennessee and Josh Hypel is that as the season has progressed with their freshman quarterback.
19:05They have slowed the tempo down a lot. This is not the run and gun of years past that we've seen with Josh Hypel and Tennessee. So I think that is worth keeping in the back of your head and an extremely cold night in Columbus weather will not be great for a SEC team to have to go to the shoe.
19:27One of the hardest places to play and get it done here. So I agree that I would only be looking at the under, but I think if that's the case, he liked the under then I absolutely like the Tennessee team total under and I like the Ohio State team total over because unless Chip Kelly and Ryan day are drunk again, and they're going to do the same thing that they did against Michigan.
19:55Where instead of utilizing the best wide receivers in the game, you're going to run the ball for some reason and try to prove that you're tougher in the trenches. I don't think that happens. I think they score and score a lot in this game against Tennessee and I like their defense, but I think Tennessee's teams total under is not a bad look here.
20:14The Buckeyes are the best scoring defense and total defense in college football fueling 11 points per game. Just about 241 give it up in terms of total offensive yardage to their opponents, Ohio State also solid defending the run that is going to be the recipe of success for Tennessee if they can attack a Buckeyes defense that again good against the run but in spots this year has been slightly exposed.
20:44What do I mean by that Ohio State only allowing about 98 and a half yards per game on the ground seventh best rushing defense in the sport one of eight teams that allows fewer than a hundred yards per game, but welcome in Dylan Sampson, who is the SEC's leading rusher eighth most in the country.
21:02He has scored 22 rushing touchdowns this year. So Ohio State allowed the Indiana duo of running backs that being Tyson Lawton and Justice Ellison to put up 141 yards combined Jordan James and the loss against Oregon a buck 15 cloud Mullings of Michigan 32 attempts for 116 yards. So not overly efficient but a couple of big pops at the end to keep the game out of Ohio State's hands.
21:31That's the way I would approach this game Dylan Sampson anytime touchdown at minus 145. You're going to lay nearly minus 150 in a game. It should be a dead under Dylan Sampson's numbers throughout the year were like minus 1450. Basically, you're betting on are the volunteers going to score if yes more than likely it is Dylan Sampson so many angles to approach the college football playoff will have you covered this weekend on sports grid.