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00:00Sometimes, Joe, they say, let's save the best for last, and that's what we're going to do.
00:06Tennessee and Ohio State, Saturday night, 8 p.m. in the horseshoe, cold weather conditions.
00:12Tennessee and Knoxville, heads north here, the orange versus the red.
00:17Seven and a half is the number, Joe.
00:18It's over a touchdown as a favor towards the Buckeyes in a total of 46 and a half.
00:24I think overall there's more talent on Ohio State, but that doesn't mean they're going
00:27to win this football game, Joe.
00:28What are you saying?
00:29Yeah, well, we've seen a fluctuation in terms of the market, too, Donny.
00:33Sunday, it opened up, or when they put out these college football playoff odds.
00:37We had eight and a half.
00:38We saw it go down as low as six and a half, and now more money coming in and buying back
00:43on Ohio State under a key number of seven.
00:46It'll be 22 degrees in terms of the forecast.
00:49Ohio State does have two top five wins over Penn State and Indiana.
00:54They're at home, more dominant at home than potentially they are on the road, but I'm
00:58still going to take the points with Tennessee.
01:01I understand the quarterback inconsistency maybe with Nico, but that tempo with the rushing
01:06attack I think could give the Ohio State defense some problems.
01:10They gave up a ton of yards to the Michigan rushing attack as well.
01:13When they lose games, I'm talking about Ohio State.
01:16They're allowing a lot of yards on the ground, and that's the MO of Tennessee.
01:20I don't think the cold weather bothers them.
01:22I'm going to strike the upset.
01:23Give me the points, and I'll take them outright, plus 220.
01:27Let's double down on this.
01:28If they do strike the upset, the Tennessee Volunteers, Ryan Day fired the next day.
01:32They said, hey, he's coming back.
01:33We give up.
01:34He can't lose two straight games like that.
01:36No, that night, I don't even think he makes it past the tunnel.
01:43They're going to be after him, and that's another factor why when you think about this
01:47game, how tight he potentially could be if this is in the fourth quarter.
01:52That could be a big problem for Ryan Day.
01:54He has not called a great game plan in critical matchups.
01:58I'll take the points with the more loose team, and Josh Heupel, I think in an offensive mind,
02:02he'll have his team prepared.
02:03Yeah, talking about planting the flag at midfield, they might plant Ryan Day at midfield if they
02:08lose that football game.
02:09Can you do that?
02:10Leave him there.
02:11Can you do that?
02:12I think you can.
02:13If he points his toes down, I think you can get him in there.
02:14I think you can get him right at the 50-yard line and be like, boop, that's where you're
02:17going to stay the rest of the night.
02:18That bill hasn't been passed, so I think you're good until next year.
02:23You have a shot.
02:24Exactly.
02:25You can still plant people out there the way you do.
02:28By the way, we're talking about orange, Joe.
02:29Let's get to some more orange here.
02:30Burnt orange versus regular orange.
02:32Texas and Clemson, 11.5.
02:36Is this right?
02:37Here's the favorite.
02:38At the FanDuel Sportsbook, towards the Longhorns in a total of 51.5 down in Austin.
02:42Is this a blowout, or Kade Kloblich and Dabba go, we're not even supposed to be here.
02:46We might as well win the game while we're here, though.
02:48Yeah, I don't know if I could take them plus the 11.5.
02:52Now, Kloblich played fantastic against SMU, 262.
02:56Four touchdowns.
02:57They couldn't run the football consistently, and that's going to be an MO if they pull
03:00this game out, right?
03:02Clemson needs to run the football.
03:04Front seven, four, Texas, very dominant.
03:06Again, that secondary is elite right now, just like Notre Dame, holding opposing offenses
03:11right in the area of about 53% completion percentage.
03:15I think they're going to have to push tempo to some capacity.
03:18Eileen, Texas, Donnie, I'm not going to bet the side, but I told you in the break, I love
03:22the total, 51.5.
03:25Clemson just can't go into this game running the football, and I think Texas at home does
03:29push tempo.
03:30Clemson, I think, will open it up once they trail.
03:33Give me points aplenty.
03:34I think we fly through the 51.5, Donnie.
03:38Any chances for the Texas Longhorns, since there is no tomorrow if you don't win this
03:42football game?
03:43A quarterback change could be used in this game.
03:46Any ideas there?
03:47Yeah, I mean, think about this, right?
03:50So they lose to Washington last year in the semifinal playoff game, right?
03:55It's go big or go home.
03:56You lost your two big games to Georgia this year.
03:58We know that Quinn Ewers has battled, he's been battling injuries.
04:02If he starts out, and let's say he throws two picks, and this game is in the fourth
04:06quarter, and you have Clemson, or third quarter, and you have Clemson within striking distance
04:10or with a lead, you have to turn to the better quarterback or potentially a spot.
04:15He did it against Georgia earlier in the year.
04:18I would have to think that a start turns the arch in that type of situation, don't you?
04:24Yeah, no, it's look, and again, sometimes you're forced, and we've seen this, Joe, in
04:28big games.
04:29Like you talk about Alabama, Jalen Hurts, and what, to a tag of our lower, going back
04:32and forth at that point.
04:33So it's about winning the football game, not the feelings of a player that you might have,
04:36and we'll see if that makes a difference.
04:38If we go up to State College on noon on Saturday, Joe, 25 degrees, SMU from Texas, those are
04:45cold conditions.
04:46Penn State open at seven and a half at Fandul.
04:49Now we see eight and a half here, a total of 53 and a half.
04:52James Franklin in a big game.
04:55Do you trust them here?
04:56It's the eight and a half point favorites, Joe.
04:57No, I like a lot of dogs this weekend, and maybe I'll get smashed, but I like SMU with
05:03the points.
05:04Again, I know they started slow against Clemson, but that front seven is very difficult to
05:08run on.
05:09They're allowing opposing offenses only 2.6, 2.7 yards per carry.
05:14They held Clemson to 62 yards.
05:17And again, if Penn State is going to win this game and win it by margin, they still need
05:20the rushing attack.
05:21They rushed for 292 against Oregon, but again, they need that type of effort, I think, to
05:26pull this game out against SMU.
05:29Playing at home, I think there's pressure for James Franklin.
05:31I'm going to take SMU.
05:32I think they have the mobile quarterback.
05:35They have the more consistent quarterback as well.
05:37Jennings over Aller.
05:39Never trust Drew Aller in a big spot.
05:41Give me SMU and I wouldn't be shocked if they strike the upset in Happy Valley Saturday
05:46afternoon.
05:47Now, to do strike the upset, you know what that means, Joe.
05:50New contract dissension for James Franklin, wonderful program at this point.
05:53And also, you know, let me ask you this question too on this.
05:57Smart move for Drew Aller to say, I'm coming back before this playoff game.
06:01You lose this playoff game, boy, that's going to change a lot of minds on you actually coming
06:06back to the program, I would think.
06:07Yeah.
06:08Like, like why are you even worried about your decision after these games?
06:12Like, you know, we've seen the backup move on.
06:14Like, you know what?
06:15You have to worry.
06:16You have to be dialed in.
06:17I mean, if you're thinking about next year, when you have a playoff game and an opportunity
06:21to move on to the next round, where's his head right now?
06:24I mean, you look at the performances by Drew Aller.
06:27Yeah, he's beat up on mediocre competition, but against elite competition, that passing
06:32attack has been non-existent.
06:34Only drew for 225 and they put up 35 points against Oregon.
06:38Problem was they still lost a fine margin.
06:42By the way, also, the way this is playing out, three games going to be on Saturday,
06:45one on Friday night.
06:46Do you like that?
06:47Or figure they should just all stagger them on Saturday?
06:49Do you like that nice appetizer on a Friday night?
06:52No, I want them all on the same day.
06:54Don't you?
06:55I mean, it's great that it's an in-state matchup, Indiana and Notre Dame, but they should all
07:00be playing on the same night, but it's all for money, right?
07:03That's what they want.
07:04They expand it and they get more revenue coming out of the playoff in round one.
07:09Should be fun to see how it plays out.
07:10Something we've never seen before, but certainly excited to see playoff football in college
07:14football.
07:15Where has it been all our lives?
07:16It's finally here.
07:17That's Joe Lision.
07:18Donnie writes that he's going to close that out on the early line, so make sure you stay
07:21tuned right here on the SportsMid Network.
07:23All right, back on the early line, myself, Donnie, and Kevin will be covering that Thursday
07:27night game, Chargers and Denver, so tune in.
07:30Ben and Donnie will be back tomorrow for the early line.
07:35We always do bye-bye-bye in this segment.
07:37Typically, it's been basketball over the past couple of weeks, but there is a college, a
07:42couple of college football games.
07:44So, I'll throw out a pick, Frizo, give me bye-bye-bye.
07:51Bye-bye-bye.
07:53So, we have Western Kentucky and James Madison in one game.
07:57Western Kentucky really was a bad pick against Jacksonville State for me a couple of weeks
08:03ago in the conference championship game.
08:05You look at the total in both of these games tonight.
08:08James Madison, the more complete team, I probably would take, I'm not going to be betting that
08:12game, but I would lay the 7.5 with James Madison, just a little bit more complete in
08:17terms of the offense and defense alliance.
08:19The one game I actually do like is Cal and UNLV.
08:23Barry Odom has moved on to become the new head coach at Purdue.
08:26You have an interim staff.
08:28Cal with Justin Wilcox looking to get a bowl win, a desperate bowl win.
08:33Justin Wilcox saved his job this year by getting the Cal Bears to a .500 record and getting
08:39to a bowl.
08:40He loses his quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, but they still like to run the football.
08:44So does UNLV, right?
08:46You see the total at 46.5, 47.5 on FanDuel.
08:50I'm going to go under.
08:51I lean to Cal in terms of the matchup because the staff is there and Wilcox, pretty good
08:56defensive-minded coach, but I like the under 47.5 in regards to the matchup.
09:02That's how we'll play it for bye-bye-bye.
09:04Hopefully we can win some money a little bit later tonight.
09:07College football playoff action Friday night.
09:10We have Indiana and Kirk Cignetti and Notre Dame intrastate rivalry potentially, right?
09:15You have the brand and brand recognition with Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame going up against
09:22the Dark Horse and Cinderella potentially of the college football playoff in Indiana.
09:28Can they strike the upset?
09:29I'll just say this when you look at the game overall.
09:32Indiana will have to win the turnover battle.
09:35They're going to have to jump up first, I believe, and really put the pressure on Riley
09:39Leonard.
09:40That is the key for Indiana to potentially pulling out this game.
09:44They do have a veteran quarterback in terms of Curtis Rourke.
09:48You look at Indiana overall, plus 14 in turnover margin.
09:51That is great.
09:52That's a great asset to have heading into this road matchup.
09:56The other factor as well is Cignetti has coached in terms of the FCS playoffs.
10:01He's a battle-tested coach, prep, and the extra week off potentially you would give
10:06the edge maybe to the underdog in Indiana going up against the big dog and Marcus Freeman
10:12in that defense.
10:13So, I like Indiana plus the points.
10:15As long as it stays over seven, seven and a half, I'm going to take the points where
10:19Indiana wouldn't shock me.
10:21If they do strike the upset, I will say 51 and a half is a little bit high in terms of
10:26the matchup.
10:27There's potential snow showers in the forecast, very cold atmosphere.
10:31Give me under Indiana and Notre Dame as well.
10:34So, I'm taking the points going under.
10:36I'll just give this factor as well.
10:38Big picture if Notre Dame does win, but let's say doesn't cover and moves on.
10:43Notre Dame right now has won 10 straight games heading into this game, right?
10:47They've won those games by an average margin of victory of right in the area of about 34
10:52and a half points per game.
10:54That secondary is as good as any secondary in the nation right now.
10:58And that's potentially what could propel Notre Dame to a top or final four ranking or seating
11:05as this playoff plays out.
11:07They've held opposing quarterbacks right now to 48% completion percentage.
11:12That is one of the best in the nation.
11:14They've only given up nine passing touchdowns all season long.
11:18Very opportunistic as well.
11:20One of the best turnover margins in the nation.
11:2217 interceptions on the year.
11:25They had two pick sixes against USC.
11:27They bring that type of effort against Curtis Rourke and Indiana's offense could be very
11:32difficult.
11:33But again, I still think Indiana will slow the tempo down, force this game into the fourth
11:38quarter and put the ball and put the game on Riley Leonard's shoulders and we'll see
11:44if Notre Dame can pull it out.
11:45That is the MO right now of Notre Dame.
11:47They want to run the football, stay in manageable third down situations with Leonard.
11:53But if he's forced to play from behind double digit deficit or forced to play from behind
11:58in the fourth quarter, that could be a recipe for Indiana knocking off the Notre Dame fighting
12:03Irish.
12:04This is going to be a dynamic atmosphere, not just Friday night, but the games on Saturday
12:09as well.
12:10When you look at some of the other teams that could be in waiting, I want to see what Arizona
12:15State brings to the table.
12:17Kenny Dillingham has done a fantastic job in regards to that team and preparation.
12:22They entered this game in terms of the semifinals, winning five straight.
12:27They could shut down the run.
12:29That's going to be intriguing to see who they get in terms of the next round, along with
12:33Georgia.
12:34Will Carson Beck be ready or will it be Gunner Stock?
12:38We'll see you tomorrow on the Early Line.
12:40Trek Bish coming up next.
12:42Have a great week, everyone.