Pats/Bills this Sunday! Can the Patriots cover? Could they pull off the upset? Betting insider Nick Kostos joins and has the answers!
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00:00Nick, good morning.
00:01What's going on?
00:02How are we doing today?
00:03Oh, I'm great.
00:04We're so close to Christmas break
00:05and you are first Christmas as a dad.
00:07Yeah, first Christmas as a dad, which is really awesome.
00:09Trying to stay in the Christmas spirit,
00:11despite all the work.
00:11So we're rocking the Christmas music every day in the house,
00:14which is awesome.
00:15So yeah, trying to get in the spirit.
00:16We love it.
00:17And Nick, your wife is Italian, right?
00:19Yes.
00:20Have you ever eaten tripe or did they make tripe?
00:23Yeah, so the big joke with my in-law
00:26is that I eat everything basically.
00:28I've never had a bad meal.
00:30There are only two things that I don't like.
00:31I don't like, as they call it, stuffed galamad,
00:33which is like squid.
00:34I don't like that.
00:35And I don't like galamad sauce,
00:37which is like squid and marinara sauce.
00:39I don't like that.
00:40And I don't like tripe.
00:41My father-in-law loves it.
00:43And whenever it's on the menu at a restaurant,
00:45always orders it.
00:47Pun intended here, it turns my stomach.
00:49I think those are the only two things I won't eat.
00:53You do seven fishes for Christmas Eve?
00:55Well, growing up, I didn't,
00:57because my family is Greek and is Greek primarily.
00:59But yes, now that we do Christmas Eve with my wife's family,
01:02we do the seven fishes.
01:03So would you eat coon then,
01:05like Xavier Leguette down in Carolina?
01:09But raccoon is not a fish though.
01:11No, no, no, it's just a-
01:12Just in general, would I eat raccoon?
01:14Yeah, just in general.
01:15I mean, I don't know if it's prepared well
01:16at a nice restaurant, it probably is pretty good.
01:18Would I seek it out?
01:19No.
01:21If I went to a Michelin-starred restaurant
01:23and they had raccoon on the menu,
01:24and it was like, hey, this is really delicious.
01:26Yeah, I'd try it.
01:27But like, am I going to someone's house
01:28like hacking one up with a cleaver?
01:30No, I'm not doing that.
01:31Road trip, we're driving through Carolinas.
01:34We're an I-77.
01:35I have to tell you something, Wiggy.
01:37I like you a lot.
01:38If you gave me $10 million,
01:39I wouldn't road trip through the Carolinas
01:41with you or anybody.
01:42Really?
01:43No, no, no, you'd learn a lot with Wiggy.
01:44Oh man, we'd have a blast.
01:45No, I'm not road tripping anywhere
01:48with anyone in the woods or camping or hunting.
01:50I don't do any of that stuff.
01:50No, no, no, not camping.
01:51I'm just talking RV and we're stopping down
01:53and like we're hitting every town,
01:55pottying it up, we're getting drunk,
01:58we're hitting all the shake spots.
01:59I mean, we're living good.
02:01Yeah, you know, it doesn't sound bad.
02:03Yeah.
02:04I told you, it's a good road trip.
02:05We get an RV, somebody drives it for us and-
02:07Who's going to drive it though?
02:08Oh, we hire somebody.
02:09I think Sean should do it.
02:10Yeah, I'll do it.
02:11I'd be happy to.
02:12Courtney, you would never do that.
02:15I know, you're right.
02:17I don't know you that well,
02:18but I know you well enough to know that.
02:19I feel like we know each other well.
02:21Okay.
02:21Yeah, you're my friend.
02:23I'm going to bring up somebody
02:24that I heard you absolutely just demolished last Friday,
02:28but Curtis, he has his lock of the week.
02:30He's not in today, but he-
02:32So does it even matter then?
02:33Well, it does matter because he's been kind of hot
02:35when it comes to college football.
02:37Okay.
02:38So he's going Notre Dame tonight.
02:40Yeah, like, well, what's his number?
02:41I can't, he doesn't know that.
02:42I believe it's seven.
02:43Okay, yeah.
02:44So I bet seven and a half with Indiana.
02:46So it's like not the same bet, but yeah, we can go,
02:48we can go opposite each other for the purposes of this.
02:50But like worth noting, if Notre Dame wins by seven,
02:53I win and he pushes.
02:54But yeah, we can go oppo on this one.
02:56I like Indiana a little bit tonight.
02:57And you know, I crushed him last week, right?
03:00Was that like 10-8 or 10-9 as far as boxing goes?
03:03No, yeah, that was like a second round knockout.
03:06People will not stop talking about it.
03:08I need like a rare content replay or something.
03:11Were you, what got you so fired up?
03:14Well, I just think, I really think, you know,
03:16and it's not just Boston sports fans,
03:18like New York sports,
03:18well, all sports fans are dumb in some way.
03:21The Boston sports fan
03:22that doesn't appreciate Bill Belichick,
03:23it's like offensive to me.
03:25Cause I, you know, like I am a Giants fan
03:27and I grew up and Bill was my defensive coordinator,
03:29but you know, you're in the wiki plate form.
03:30Like I love NFL history.
03:32Like I love this stuff.
03:33People can tell, right?
03:34You might not like me,
03:35but you have to respect the fact, like my sports knowledge.
03:38I've been watching sports religiously and obsessively
03:41for 35 years, since 1990.
03:43And I got the NFL encyclopedia for Christmas
03:45when I was six.
03:46I read the whole thing.
03:47It's a true story.
03:48Thurman Thomas was on the cover.
03:49You didn't get laid until you got to college,
03:51it sounds like.
03:52Well, you know, maybe it was like late high school,
03:54but I'm not making the case that it was early here.
03:57But yeah, so I love this stuff
03:59and it offends me a little bit
04:01that people are kind of crapping on Bill,
04:03but especially Patriots fans,
04:04like have some gratitude, guys.
04:05Like what the hell is wrong with you?
04:07Yeah, he went off on him.
04:08So Nick, let's kind of jump into this
04:11because I'm excited about it.
04:14The college football playoffs,
04:17you just kind of talked about a little bit,
04:19Notre Dame and Indiana.
04:20And can you kind of talk about the other games?
04:23Is there a game you like more than others?
04:25Is there a game that you would stay away from?
04:27What you're feeling on the, you know,
04:29especially, you know, tonight and into Saturday?
04:32Yeah, so Indiana, I bet tonight plus seven and a half.
04:35This is kind of like my working theory here.
04:38And I have no idea if it's gonna be right.
04:39So like, I'm not betting.
04:41So the first three games,
04:42I'm not betting a lot of money on.
04:43Like, I like all the NFL games this weekend better.
04:45Because, you know, like when we enter, you know,
04:47an NBA playoff or, you know, NFL playoffs,
04:49you know, we have years of data,
04:51like years of evidence that says,
04:53like certain types of teams win
04:55and certain types of teams lose.
04:57This is the first year and the first data point
04:59that we've ever had this, right?
05:01And like, we've never had, you know,
05:02first round games, home, you know,
05:05college football playoff games.
05:06It's never happened before.
05:07So, you know, in the FCS, right?
05:09The, I don't know what that means.
05:11The college subdivision, whatever.
05:12It's like the division two, basically,
05:14is what they used to call it, right?
05:15It used to be one double A.
05:16One double A, exactly.
05:18You, we usually see the home teams early on,
05:20it's their home playoff games in division one double A
05:22or the FCS, they score tons of points
05:25and they usually win.
05:26Is that gonna be what happens here?
05:28Or, you know, let's take a look at the four coaches here.
05:31And this is not a leading statement here.
05:34I'm not saying I have the answer.
05:35I don't have the answer.
05:36I think it's really interesting.
05:38Steve Sarkisian, Ryan Day, James Franklin, Marcus Freeman.
05:43Like, these are not coaches
05:44that have historically been great in big spots
05:47at covering big numbers.
05:48So the way that I'm gonna choose to play this year,
05:50I'm gonna have small bets on every underdog.
05:52And this is not me saying,
05:54like, I'm not saying this is great advice.
05:55Like, I'll give NFL picks.
05:57Like, the picks don't have to win,
05:57but I feel good about the bets I make.
05:59Like these, I'm guessing here
06:01that I think that the overmatched head coaches
06:05are overvalued here.
06:06And I'm gonna take the points with Indiana.
06:08I'm gonna take the points with SMU.
06:10I'm gonna take the points with Clemson.
06:11And the one that I actually really like
06:13is Tennessee tomorrow night against Ohio State.
06:16Now, we haven't seen Ohio State play a home game
06:18since they lost to Michigan a couple of weeks ago.
06:20So like, you know, what's gonna happen
06:21if and when Tennessee takes an early lead in the game?
06:24Like, I'm not saying that Ohio State fans
06:25will turn on the team,
06:27but like, Biggie, you know how this goes, right?
06:29Like, that's the, it's gonna be quiet.
06:31You're gonna be expecting the worst.
06:33I think, and they already are trying to like fire the coach.
06:35And I think it's gonna get really interesting
06:37if Tennessee jumps out to an early lead.
06:39So do I think Ohio State's gonna win?
06:41I do think the Buckeyes will win at the end,
06:43but plus seven and a half,
06:45I'll take the points with the Vols tomorrow night.
06:47Again, this is like, this is my opinion.
06:49It does not have to be right how this is gonna go.
06:52All four favorites can win.
06:53This is how I'm choosing to play it.
06:55All right, Kostos, I need help.
06:56I was duped, bamboozled, led astray, run amok,
07:00whatever you want to say.
07:02I thought Patrick Wilms wouldn't play.
07:03So I jumped on Texans minus three early.
07:06I don't know, like, why would you do that?
07:07Yeah, I...
07:09Like, I'm being serious.
07:10Like, you should know, you're smart.
07:12It was dumb.
07:13Yeah, it was really dumb.
07:14But you panicked on what, on Monday?
07:15Yeah, yeah, because I wanted to get the best.
07:17I didn't want to lose out on three.
07:18You wanted to get the best of the numbers?
07:20I didn't want to lose out on three,
07:22and I was convinced Mahomes...
07:24For Kansas City, all the way the other way.
07:26Yeah, all the way the other way, whole way around.
07:28So how do I, should I hedge into this
07:31and just take like, take Chiefs minus three at this point,
07:35and just, or three and a half, and just call it a day,
07:37or what do I do?
07:38I don't know, what's your favorite bet this weekend?
07:40My favorite bet this weekend?
07:41Like, a team that you think is gonna win this weekend.
07:44The Baltimore Ravens.
07:45Okay, yeah, why don't you, okay, yeah,
07:48this doesn't have to win.
07:49I would money line parlay Baltimore and Kansas City.
07:52Okay.
07:53I think the Chiefs will win.
07:54I laid three with Kansas City,
07:56because that's a, I, man, we got to have like,
07:59you got, you have my number.
08:01I was excited to bet against Carson Wentz, I'm sorry.
08:03I overreacted.
08:04But you didn't know that he was playing them.
08:05I just, yeah, you're right.
08:06And that, again, hand up on me.
08:08I was an idiot, I don't deny that.
08:11Can I just, no, because I think the audience will,
08:12I think they'll like this.
08:13You'll like this.
08:14Okay.
08:15So three there is what we call an in-between number.
08:18So when you see a number like that,
08:20so, because you have to,
08:21if Carson Wentz is gonna play,
08:23Houston's more than a three-point favorite, right?
08:25So if the number's two and a,
08:26like Houston minus two and a half,
08:28that's the betting market saying like,
08:30we don't know what's happening here.
08:32Like, it's gonna be more than three if Mahomes is out,
08:35and if Mahomes plays, it's gonna swing
08:37all the way back the other way.
08:38Now, that's more shaded towards Mahomes
08:40not playing than playing.
08:42But even that's like,
08:45when you see stuff, like even in the NBA,
08:47like if Jason Tatum is questionable for a game
08:49and you see the Celtics are, let's say like,
08:51you know, seven and a half at home
08:53against a middle-of-the-road team in the Eastern Conference,
08:55that's an in-between number.
08:57And if Tatum plays, it's 12 and a half.
08:59And if he doesn't, it's like three and a half.
09:00Like, that's how that works,
09:01just to explain like why that number was what it was.
09:03Shine bet it like a virgin,
09:05and the first time in a strip club,
09:08he basically lost all his money in the first 30 seconds.
09:10Honestly, he bet it like a virgin
09:11who got the NFL encyclopedia for Christmas
09:14when he was six years old.
09:15So, Nick, do we,
09:18cause I'm looking at, you know,
09:20I'm looking to put my parlay together, right?
09:23Should I go, cause you hit me to this,
09:27cause I used to just do strictly money lines,
09:29but then you hit me to this,
09:31should I jump on pats with points?
09:34Um, so I make my point spreads in the NFL.
09:38I don't claim to be Jimmy the Greek.
09:40I am Nick the Greek.
09:40I think my stuff's pretty good.
09:42It doesn't mean that it wins.
09:43Like, everyone loses.
09:45People can win also.
09:46I think that, I think 14 is probably about right.
09:51I did bet plus 14 and a half.
09:53I talked about it on my show on Monday,
09:55which as Courtney said,
09:56and you can now listen, watch on Peacock every,
09:58how cool is that?
09:59That is pretty cool.
10:01I bet 14 and a half with the Patriots.
10:03I honestly think 14 is okay.
10:05I would not bet the game at this point now.
10:08And even my 14 and a half bet,
10:10I'm a little nervous about it
10:11because the Bills could win 40 at 14.
10:12And look, the Patriots have been one of these teams
10:14where they get bet.
10:15How many times have I come on and bet the Patriots?
10:17And it's not just me,
10:18like the betting market likes New England in these games.
10:21And then the game starts and Alex Van Pelt's terrible.
10:24And the owner is like bad mouthing the coaches
10:26in the owner's box.
10:26So, and they lose by 13 or more.
10:29So I guess a lean towards the Patriots,
10:31but I would need 14 and a half
10:33to make the bet with New England.
10:34So Costos, to me,
10:35the Patriots feel like the best team to live bet
10:38because I feel like they're good
10:39for a lot of garbage time points.
10:41So if they get down 10 early,
10:43it's easy to be like, all right, cool.
10:44I'll take plus 21 and a half at this point
10:46and just hope Drake may get a bunch of garbage time points
10:48because that's when this offense actually decides to show up
10:51is when they're down 21 points.
10:52Yeah, I mean, like I honestly,
10:53like if that's how you feel,
10:54like just bet the over in the game.
10:56Where are we at here with the total?
10:57Is it 46? 46 and a half.
10:59Yeah, like honestly, like Chime,
11:00if that's how you feel,
11:01and if anyone out there listening,
11:02like, you know, the game went over last week.
11:05It was the total closed 46 and a half, final score 30-17.
11:09Patriots backdoored it at the end.
11:10Mine's out of the gutter.
11:12We're talking totals.
11:14So got to 47.
11:15So this one's 46 and a half.
11:17Like if you think the Patriots are gonna get down
11:19and they're gonna score,
11:20that's how the game's gonna go.
11:21It's probably gonna go over the total.
11:23So 47 is one of the key numbers when we talk about totals.
11:27So if you can bet an over 46 and a half,
11:29that is far better than betting over 47
11:32if anyone is interested.
11:33Do I jump on both the Eagles and Vikings
11:37for the road teams?
11:40Are the Eagles back and, you know, the Vikings?
11:43Are they both for real?
11:45I like the Eagles against Washington.
11:48I think three is the number you want to lay.
11:50We're in between three and three and a half right now.
11:53Like I hate, because I don't know
11:54if like this goes over people's heads,
11:55but if you want to win your bets,
11:57like this is the stuff that matters.
11:58If you like the Eagle, how about this?
11:59I'll phrase it like this.
12:00I like Philly.
12:01If you like Philly, find a minus three and bet minus three.
12:04If you like Washington, bet plus three and a half,
12:07not plus three.
12:08I also, Wiggy, I like the Vikings.
12:10It looks like yesterday this game was gonna come off three
12:13and go down to two and a half.
12:14Gino Smith told the media he's playing on Sunday.
12:17So Gino's gonna start.
12:19I would wait here.
12:20I don't think the point spread's ever going up.
12:23I think it can only go down.
12:24And if it goes down to Vikings two and a half,
12:26minus two and a half,
12:28I would lay the Vikings on Sunday on the road in Seattle.
12:31All right.
12:32Well, there you have it.
12:33I like that.
12:34I gotta put my pile.
12:35You know, I'm just going strictly money line.
12:37I'm gonna go on that.
12:39Oh, and the last one for me,
12:40because I don't know if Pittsburgh,
12:44where Pittsburgh.
12:45I'm going Pittsburgh this week.
12:46I went with Pittsburgh one week and they lost me a game.
12:50Yeah, I'm going.
12:50This is not a good read.
12:51It's okay, so.
12:52They haven't lost me a game yet this season.
12:54Knock on wood.
12:55But I feel like I'm with Shyam.
12:56I feel like Baltimore is like,
12:57yeah, they're the team.
12:59Okay.
13:00I bet Pittsburgh plus six and a half.
13:02Really?
13:03I think the margins are really fine here.
13:04I'll give like a really brief explanation.
13:06So last week I liked the Eagles, right?
13:08Against Pittsburgh.
13:09And I don't know if I said it on this show,
13:10but like I talked about it all week.
13:13Pittsburgh not having George Pickens.
13:14They didn't have him two weeks ago against Cleveland.
13:16They got away with it
13:17because the Browns missed a couple of field goals.
13:18James threw some interceptions.
13:20You know, not having Pickens is a huge deal
13:22because he is their downfield passing attack.
13:24And then last week,
13:25everyone watched the game against the Eagles.
13:27And it was like, oh my God,
13:29like they can't do anything downfield without this guy.
13:32Now, Pickens was ruled out for this game yesterday.
13:35So he is out.
13:36And now I actually feel like last week,
13:38I feel like it was under-reported.
13:40And now this week I feel like too much is being made of it.
13:42You know, the Steelers do have,
13:44and it doesn't have to work this way,
13:46but the Steelers have owned Lamar Jackson.
13:48Lamar, more often than not,
13:49he's on track to be a hall of favor.
13:52So don't confuse what I'm saying.
13:54But he shrinks more often than not in spots like this.
13:57Don't believe me.
13:58Just like put a microphone in front of his face
14:00with a camera.
14:01He'll tell you.
14:02It's one of the reasons we love him.
14:03He's so damn honest.
14:04And then you have this, right?
14:06In a game with a total of 45,
14:08Steelers and Ravens in December.
14:09It's going to be cold, obviously, right?
14:11Special teams, Wiggy,
14:12is special teams going to matter in this game?
14:13Yeah, special teams is going to be huge.
14:16Okay, so question for everybody.
14:17And this is going to sound like nuts, but it's the truth.
14:20Which kicker do you trust more in the game
14:22in the year of our Lord 2024?
14:24Chris Boswell or Justin Tucker?
14:25Boswell, it's not even close, it feels like.
14:27And Tucker's going to the Hall of Fame.
14:29So, but he's been so bad this year.
14:32Remember when these two teams played like six weeks ago?
14:34I bet the Ravens in that game in Pittsburgh,
14:36he missed three field goals in that game.
14:38Like cost me, forget about them, cost me a bet, that jerk.
14:42I don't know how you can trust him here.
14:43So I'll take the six and a half for the Steelers.
14:46I do think the Ravens will win,
14:47but I don't think they win by seven or more.
14:49Give me Pittsburgh.
14:50Yeah, but no TJ Watt though.
14:51So that's going to be-
14:52No, Watt's playing.
14:53He's playing?
14:54I thought they said he was out.
14:55Oh no, he's in.
14:56Oh.
14:57He is in, 100% in.
14:58Wow.
14:59All right.
15:00Well, Kostos, we love you so much.
15:02And last time that we'll probably talk to you,
15:04are you in next Friday?
15:07Yes.
15:08No, I'm not in.
15:08Okay, Shime.
15:09Shime will be here, so you'll talk to Shime,
15:11but it'll be the last-
15:12Just, just Shime?
15:14Oh yeah, probably.
15:15Yeah, just Shime.
15:15Great, I'll see you guys in two weeks.
15:17I think it's me and Nick Fitzy Stevens.
15:19All right, I like Fitzy, I can do that.
15:20And I got to go to, I got to go see Nick
15:22because Nick's Greek.
15:24And you know, I love the Greeks
15:25because of the roast beef sauce and cheese.
15:27I told you, it's a Greek thing up here.
15:28Yeah, we still haven't confirmed that, but what is it?
15:32The roast beef three-way.
15:33The roast beef three-way, that's huge in-
15:35Out of all the three-ways out there.
15:37Yes, that's the biggest.
15:39It's my second sexual entendre of the interview
15:41for those guys.
15:42And I don't care what anybody says,
15:43I've lived in Boston my whole life
15:46and I've been around here.
15:47The Greeks brought us the roast beef sandwich
15:50and it is the greatest thing in all of them,
15:54all of world history is the roast beef sub
15:58or the roast beef sandwich.
15:59Sauce and cheese, I prefer it, onion roll.
16:02This is the only three-way that I don't like,
16:04but I do like sauce and cheese on an onion roll.
16:06Yeah, we got to get Costos to Boston
16:07because there's a lot of Greek restaurants,
16:09great Greek restaurants.
16:10Yes, and he's got to try the roast beef.
16:11You never had that Greek roast beef?
16:13What are you talking about?
16:14Yeah, he doesn't know.
16:15Oh man.
16:16Of course I know.
16:16No, no, no.
16:17Greek roast beef?
16:18Of course, man.
16:19It's called the North Shore beef around here.
16:21Wiggy, I grew up in Queens, man.
16:22They want to like the Greek capitals
16:24of the United States of America.
16:25Of course.
16:26They do that down there.
16:27They got their version of the North Shore roast beef,
16:28the James River sauce with the cheese.
16:32I don't know much about the James River.
16:33All right, well, we're going to have to get you,
16:34we have to send you one.
16:35I kayaked the Charles River once.
16:38Really?
16:39Yeah, one of my best friends went to Brandeis.
16:42So I used to come to Boston quite a bit.
16:43Yeah.
16:44Oh, okay.
16:45Interesting.
16:46Well, that is interesting.
16:47All right, thank you, Nick.
16:48Hope you have a Merry Christmas.
16:48It's not that interesting, right?
16:50No, it's not that interesting.
16:51It's not that, it's not that interesting.
16:52No.
16:53Okay.
16:54Merry Christmas, Nick.
16:55Do you want to wish us anything?
16:56Yes, a Merry Christmas and minimal sweats
16:58when he bets in the absolute very best of luck.
16:59All right, there he is, Nick Costa.