日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年11月16日 少数与党の国会運営は？ 佐藤正久×長妻×永濱
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00:00Good morning.
00:01Good morning.
00:02This is the News Question for Nikkei Sato on November 16.
00:05I'm your host, Sakamoto Caster.
00:07Thank you for joining us.
00:09Let me introduce today's guest.
00:12This is Mr. Masahisa Sato,
00:26Deputy Prime Minister of Japan.
00:29Thank you for joining us.
00:30Thank you for having me.
00:32This is Ms. Akira Nagatsuma,
00:35Representative of the Liberal Democratic Party.
00:37Thank you for joining us.
00:38Thank you for having me.
00:40This is Mr. Toshihiro Nagahama,
00:43Chief Economist of the First Life Economic Research Institute.
00:45Thank you for joining us.
00:46Thank you for having me.
00:48Today, I'm joined by these three guests.
00:52Now, let's take a look at what's going on.
00:57The second Ishiba administration is in full swing.
01:02It's the beginning of a wall of policy.
01:04It's the beginning of a wall of policy.
01:07That's right.
01:08In the last election,
01:10the number of parties split,
01:13so we had to decide where to form a party.
01:15But we didn't join the coalition,
01:16so we kept the minority parties.
01:18That's how it started.
01:20If you look at the middle,
01:22it's a hand-to-hand battle.
01:24What's this?
01:25This is very symbolic.
01:27I'm using this photo.
01:28It's a photo of the inauguration day.
01:30On the left is Prime Minister Ishiba.
01:32On the right is Representative Tamaki Yuichiro,
01:34a member of the Nationalist Party.
01:35The Prime Minister is holding it with both hands,
01:37but Mr. Tamaki is holding it with his right hand.
01:40Mr. Tamaki is very concerned about
01:42the fact that he has been forced to join the coalition
01:44between the People's Party and the government.
01:46He doesn't join the coalition,
01:48he doesn't take any posts,
01:49and he says he will do it in his own way.
01:52I wrote that he can really rely on the people.
01:57If the People's Party has some momentum
02:00and faces the policy,
02:02I think he can rely on it to some extent.
02:04If not, he will take a distance.
02:06The election for prime minister
02:08was elected by Mr. Ishiba
02:10as the most elected person
02:11even though it was not enough for the majority.
02:13But it's a situation where
02:14if the opposition is united,
02:15it can be released at any time.
02:16I think it will be a very stable situation.
02:19And Mr. Ishiba led the election.
02:22That's right.
02:23In Japanese time,
02:24the election was held in Japan, the U.S. and Japan-U.S.
02:27It seems that the contents of the election
02:29are coming in order.
02:31Mr. Sato, I think Mr. Ishiba
02:33led the election in earnest.
02:35What do you think?
02:37The Trump administration is about to be born,
02:40and the APEC and G20 are in the process.
02:43It's hard to make a decision.
02:46Today, the APEC and Japan-U.S. summit
02:48was held in just 10 minutes.
02:51How to face the Trump administration.
02:54As I said in the interlude,
02:56how the Ishiba administration
02:58faces the Trump administration
03:00is difficult
03:02without further reinforcement
03:04of the current situation.
03:07The whole world is now
03:08arguing about how to meet Trump
03:10in reality.
03:12I would like to talk about this
03:14in the background today.
03:16After the commercial break,
03:18let's think about how to manage
03:20the APEC and Japan-U.S. summit.
03:26The 2nd Ishiba Cabinet was established
03:28on the 11th.
03:30The APEC and Japan-U.S. summit
03:32was led in earnest.
03:34What did Mr. Ishiba say?
03:38I have been managing the APEC and Japan-U.S. summit
03:42with the intention of
03:44reflecting various opinions
03:46as carefully as possible
03:48to solve the problem.
03:52Mr. Ishiba said
03:54that he would like to cooperate
03:56with the APEC
03:58and realize what he has not been able
04:00to do so far
04:02using this political situation.
04:04He showed his ideas
04:06to form a wide range of agreements.
04:09The wall of annual income
04:11is attracting the most attention
04:13in the competition with the APEC.
04:18The National Democratic Party
04:20is looking for a revision
04:22of the so-called 1.3 million yen
04:24wall of annual income
04:26where the income tax is added
04:28when the annual income exceeds
04:301.3 million yen, but
04:32the Liberal Democratic Party,
04:34the Komei Party, and the National Democratic Party
04:36have a separate meeting.
04:39The National Democratic Party
04:41has decided to hold a competition
04:43with all three parties
04:45starting next week
04:47to raise the budget
04:49to 1.78 million yen
04:51where the income tax is not added.
04:54Representative Tamaki
04:56of the National Democratic Party
04:59The competition for tax
05:01will start today.
05:04We will do our best
05:06to meet the expectations
05:08of many people.
05:15On the 15th,
05:17the three parties,
05:19the people, the Komei Party,
05:21and the National Democratic Party
05:23will hold a competition
05:25to raise the budget
05:27to 1.78 million yen
05:29where the income tax is added
05:31when the annual income
05:33exceeds 1.78 million yen.
05:37The Komei Party
05:39will hold a competition
05:41with the National Democratic Party.
05:43Representative Noda
05:45of the Liberal Democratic Party
05:47Basically,
05:49we want to show
05:51the people
05:53that we will
05:55do our best
05:57to meet the expectations
05:59of many people.
06:01We will do our best
06:03to meet the expectations
06:05of many people.
06:07That's what he said.
06:11On the 13th,
06:13the Liberal Democratic Party
06:15submitted a bill
06:17to the National Assembly
06:19to raise the budget
06:21to 1.78 million yen.
06:23The 1.78 million yen
06:25is the heaviest
06:27wall in the country.
06:29That's what we thought.
06:33The bill
06:35targets people
06:37under 2 million yen a year.
06:39It covers the burden
06:41of social insurance
06:43when the annual income
06:45exceeds 1.3 million yen.
06:47The necessary budget
06:49is estimated to be
06:51about 8 billion yen.
06:53There are various
06:55walls in the country.
06:57Which one will be
06:59removed?
07:01Meanwhile,
07:03Prime Minister Ishiba
07:05left Japan on the 14th
07:07to attend the APEC,
07:09the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
07:11Conference in Peru,
07:13and the G20,
07:15which will be held
07:17in Brazil.
07:21In addition to the talks
07:23between Japan and the U.S.,
07:25he also held talks
07:27between Japan and the U.S.,
07:29but the most noteworthy
07:31was his talks
07:33with U.S. President Trump.
07:37It is said that
07:39the talks face-to-face
07:41are difficult,
07:43but how will
07:45Prime Minister Ishiba
07:47respond to Mr. Trump?
07:49Prime Minister Ishiba
07:51has been sworn in.
07:53Today, we will look at
07:55three themes.
07:57The first theme is
07:59what will happen to
08:01politics and money
08:03with a minority party.
08:05The minority party
08:07will once again
08:09check the number
08:11of seats won in this
08:13round of elections.
08:15The majority party
08:17has 148 seats,
08:19while the Democratic Party
08:21has 28 seats,
08:23which is a large number.
08:25The Democratic Party
08:27will not form a coalition
08:29with other parties,
08:31and the Ishiba administration
08:33will start as a minority party.
08:35Mr. Sakamoto.
08:37Mr. Sato,
08:39there was a problem
08:41with politics and money,
08:43and it was expected
08:45to be solved,
08:47but how did it turn out?
08:49What I heard most
08:51in the second half
08:53was the 20 million yen
08:55that was given to
08:57Seito Ishiba.
08:59I was in support
09:01of the 71st person,
09:03but it was supposed to be
09:05the other way around,
09:07but it turned out to be
09:09the opposite in the second half.
09:11Since the 20 million yen
09:13was given to Seito Ishiba,
09:15the second half of the election
09:17was more difficult,
09:19and the people who were
09:21likely to win
09:23lost the election this time.
09:25On the other hand,
09:27the Democratic Party's
09:29position is that
09:31the people's lives
09:33are suffering
09:35because of the high prices,
09:37but the Democratic Party
09:39has a catchphrase
09:41that it will break
09:43the wall of 1.3 million yen.
09:45The easy-to-understand
09:47has become more and more
09:49prevalent.
09:51On the other hand,
09:53the Democratic Party's
09:55policy of increasing
09:57the same number
09:59of people
10:01was hard to understand
10:03because it was like
10:05rebuilding the
10:07rule of the bone.
10:09So, by not knowing
10:11what to do with safe driving,
10:13the 20 million yen problem
10:15was eliminated
10:17in the end.
10:19Mr. Nagatsuma,
10:21the Democratic Party
10:23increased the number
10:25of people by 50 this time,
10:27but in terms of policy,
10:29I think the Democratic Party
10:31took some of it.
10:33What do you think
10:35about the result?
10:37I think that the tax
10:39and social insurance
10:41paid by the Democratic Party
10:43will be distributed
10:45to the places where
10:47the party can be sold.
10:49I think that the people
10:51who feel the strange
10:53way of using taxes
10:55clearly understood
10:57and acted
10:59in the political issue
11:01of the money problem
11:03this time.
11:05It's the same as
11:07the last election.
11:09It was double.
11:11This time,
11:13our policy was
11:15not greatly evaluated,
11:17but we realized that
11:19it was a victory
11:21by the quality of the enemy.
11:23We want to implement
11:25a policy that is
11:27easier to understand,
11:29a comprehensive ban
11:31on corporate bonds
11:33and a policy that
11:35the people of Japan
11:37can be proud of.
11:39We want to make the most
11:41of it and get results.
11:43Despite the increase of the number
11:45of people by 50,
11:47the current situation
11:49is that the people
11:51are very enthusiastic
11:53with the people of Japan.
11:55Do you feel bitter about this?
11:57Or do you see it
11:59as a form of
12:01political competition?
12:03It's good that good policies
12:05are being implemented,
12:07but it's not good
12:09to fully recognize
12:11the politics of the People's Party.
12:13We should also talk
12:15about the policies
12:17that the people of Japan
12:19need.
12:21In a sense,
12:23there is also a situation
12:25of political competition.
12:27Mr. Nagahama,
12:29you said
12:31that you want to implement
12:33policies that the people
12:35of Japan
12:37have not been able to do
12:39in the past.
12:41What do you think?
12:43The market
12:45has actually changed
12:47this time.
12:49The reason is that
12:51the Ishiba government
12:53was originally
12:55wary of the
12:57current situation
12:59and the People's Party
13:01held the casting vote,
13:03so I think there is a
13:05lot of expectation
13:07that the financial policy
13:09policy will be a bit
13:11of a wave.
13:13However,
13:15I think that
13:17the results were
13:19all right
13:21in the sense
13:23that the expectations
13:25of the people
13:27of Japan
13:29were high.
13:31Mr. Nagahama,
13:33what do you think
13:35about the company
13:37group audit?
13:39The opinions
13:41of each party
13:43are divided.
13:45After the inauguration
13:47of the Ishiba government,
13:49during the press conference,
13:51the Prime Minister
13:53and the People's Party
13:55passed the political
13:57fund regulation
13:59in June this year,
14:01but it seems that
14:03it will be revised again.
14:05However, the bottom part
14:07of the company group audit
14:09is that the People's Party,
14:11the Communist Party,
14:13and the People's Party
14:15have different ideas.
14:17I will tell you again.
14:19It is the representative of
14:21the People's Party of Japan
14:23who is calling for cooperation
14:25by distributing a political reform
14:27that includes a ban on
14:29corporate group audits
14:31in the four parties of the
14:33Liberal Democratic Party.
14:35The People's Democratic Party
14:37is in a cautious position,
14:39but Representative Tamaki
14:41pointed out that
14:43the ban on audits
14:45leaves a gap
14:47for audits.
14:49On the other hand,
14:51Representative Noda
14:53pointed out that
14:55if the People's Democratic Party
14:57agrees with the abolition
14:59of the ban on audits,
15:01it does not matter.
15:03On the other hand,
15:05Representative Tamaki
15:07said that if the People's Democratic Party
15:09agrees with the abolition
15:11of the ban on audits,
15:13it will cooperate.
15:15The company group audit
15:17will cooperate.
15:19Mr. Nagatsuma,
15:21Japan has two main bodies,
15:23individuals and legal entities.
15:25In a democratic country,
15:27some say that
15:29legal entities should not
15:31be involved,
15:33but as an individual,
15:35should they not be involved?
15:37Yes.
15:39Japan has a very strong
15:41bond with
15:43corporate groups.
15:4530 years ago,
15:47the Japanese government
15:49banned corporate audit
15:51in exchange for
15:53tax money from
15:55legal entities.
15:57Despite this,
15:59corporate entities
16:01continue to receive
16:03tax money.
16:05The budget for
16:07the tax money and
16:09social insurance
16:11is distributed to
16:13corporate entities.
16:15If we do not change this
16:17strange policy,
16:19no matter how good
16:21the policy is,
16:23if the budget is not
16:25met, the priority will
16:27go astray.
16:29This is the biggest point
16:31that we must never
16:33change.
16:35Mr. Nagatsuma,
16:37you have said
16:39that the purchase of
16:41corporate entities
16:43should not be
16:45distributed to
16:47corporate entities.
16:49In principle,
16:51we should not
16:53allow certain
16:55corporate entities
16:57to have political
16:59influence.
17:01When discussing
17:03this issue,
17:05I think that
17:07we should discuss
17:09the issue of real estate
17:11supply.
17:13If we do not discuss
17:15the issue of real estate
17:17supply,
17:19we should not
17:21allow certain
17:23entities
17:25to have
17:27political influence.
17:29In order to achieve
17:31this goal,
17:33we must discuss
17:35the issue of
17:37real estate supply.
17:39Mr. Sato,
17:41we accept
17:43your proposal.
17:45However,
17:47we cannot allow
17:49corporate entities
17:51to have
17:53political influence.
17:55One company
17:57can give
17:5950 million yen
18:01to the JCPOA
18:03without
18:05asking for
18:07any compensation.
18:09We cannot
18:11give a party
18:13to a company
18:15that has
18:17no money.
18:19We cannot
18:21give a party
18:23to a company
18:25that has
18:27no money.
18:29We cannot
18:31give a party
18:33to a company
18:35that has
18:37no money.
18:39We cannot
18:41give a party
18:43to a company
18:45that has
18:47no money.
18:49We cannot
18:51give a party
18:53to a company
18:55that has
18:57no money.
18:59We cannot
19:01give a party
19:03to a company
19:05that has
19:07no money.
19:09We cannot
19:11give a party
19:13to a company
19:15that has
19:17no money.
19:19We need to
19:21discuss
19:23the issue
19:25of real estate
19:27supply in
19:29In order to prevent that from happening, we have to make it transparent.
19:31Some of it has been digitized, but it's still very difficult to see the flow.
19:36In the United States, we have also stopped some of the corporate experience funds,
19:39but it is difficult to see because it has become a system called PAC.
19:41Originally, this discussion was supposed to be done properly,
19:44but it could not be done in the previous General Assembly.
19:46However, it is difficult to conclude in the next month or so.
19:51In any case, I think that the National Assembly will not be able to turn around
19:55unless we put an end to this problem.
19:57After the announcement, I will talk about the various walls of the Annual Assembly.
20:11During the commercial break, we had a heated discussion.
20:14So far, we have talked about corporate experience funds,
20:18but here is the second theme.
20:20I will talk about the walls of the Annual Assembly and the whereabouts of trigger information.
20:24First, let's take a look at the walls of the Annual Assembly.
20:28The walls of the Annual Assembly are problems that are faced by wives and children
20:34who are mainly employed by their company's husbands when they work part-time or part-time.
20:37The walls of the Annual Assembly are not only the 130,000 yen wall pointed out by the National Assembly.
20:43Let's take a look at them one by one.
20:45First, if the Annual Assembly exceeds 1 million yen, residents must pay.
20:50If the 130,000 yen wall exceeds 1.3 million yen,
20:54income tax will be imposed.
20:58The 160,000 yen and 1.3 million yen walls are for pension and social insurance.
21:04The 160,000 yen wall is for people who work for companies with more than 51 employees.
21:08The 1.3 million yen wall is for people who work for companies with less than 50 employees.
21:14And the 1.5 million yen wall is for people who work for companies with less than 50 employees.
21:20In this way, the walls of the Annual Assembly are for those who pay taxes and those who are burdened by social insurance.
21:27Based on this, let's take a look at the National Assembly's proposal.
21:32At present, the 1.3 million yen wall is to be raised to 1.78 million yen.
21:40The 1.78 million yen wall is to be raised to 1.78 million yen,
21:43but this amount is based on the 1.73 times increase in the minimum wage from 1995.
21:51If the 1.78 million yen wall is raised to 1.78 million yen,
21:56the government estimates that the tax revenue will be about 7.6 trillion yen.
22:02I asked Mr. Tamaki about this after the National Assembly.
22:05According to his explanation,
22:07since the 1.3 million yen wall was built in 1995,
22:10the minimum wage has increased by 1.73 times,
22:13so if we simply multiply that, it will be 1.78 million yen.
22:17On the other hand, I also asked Mr. Tamaki in the program,
22:20the inflation rate is about 1.1 times lower.
22:24This is certainly because the inflation rate has continued for a long time,
22:28and the minimum wage is different,
22:30so I think it is good to consider raising the minimum wage.
22:33But how much will it be raised?
22:35If the minimum wage is raised to 1.78 million yen,
22:37the tax revenue will be about 7.6 trillion yen.
22:41The government and other parties say that this has a great impact,
22:45and the National Assembly is also concerned about the reduction of local taxes.
22:49Mr. Nagatsuma, how do you evaluate the proposal of the National Assembly?
22:52Yes, we also agree with many parts,
22:57but the budget is huge,
22:59so I think it would be good to narrow down the range and wisdom.
23:07However, I think there will be a discussion after this,
23:09but there is a cliff rather than a bigger wall,
23:13so I think we also have to solve this properly.
23:16Mr. Sato, this problem is very close to the life of the people,
23:20so in the old way of thinking, as I said earlier,
23:22men work, and women are housewives,
23:25and the design is not in line with the times.
23:30I think it is very good that the election is over,
23:32and so much attention is paid to the policy,
23:34but what about this problem?
23:35Yes, we have said that we will increase the income during the election,
23:40so I think it is necessary to make a decision to increase the income
23:45in favor of the National Assembly.
23:47However, the purpose and means should not be mistaken.
23:50The purpose of the National Assembly is not to increase the income,
23:53but how to connect it to consumption after increasing the income.
23:57Otherwise, we will not be able to get rid of the deflation.
24:00If the number of companies increases,
24:02and the number of workers increases,
24:04how do we get people to use it?
24:06If we don't think about the policy of bringing it to consumption,
24:11the pie of the economy will not grow,
24:13and we will not be able to get rid of the deflation.
24:15Therefore, I would like to discuss with the National Assembly
24:20how to get people to use it after increasing the income.
24:23If we don't discuss it together,
24:25it will not be an economic measure,
24:27so I would like to do that as well.
24:28However, the most important thing is that the budget is also important,
24:32so if the National Assembly agrees to it,
24:37the number will be about 238.
24:42We will take the lower half of the budget,
24:44so it would be nice if the National Assembly could agree to it.
24:47The problem is the budget and the extent to which it will be increased.
24:51This will probably be the final debate.
24:54Whether to do it with a high-level budget,
24:56or whether to combine a high-level budget with an increase in taxes.
25:00I think it will be a real debate from next week.
25:04Mr. Nagahama, the inflation has exceeded 5% of the GDP,
25:09and I think it's a big step forward.
25:11However, the number of individuals is not increasing.
25:13It's not increasing in terms of self-sufficiency.
25:18I think the key point is that the current generation has grasped the market.
25:26What do you think about this?
25:27First of all, in terms of the 7.6 trillion yen tax revenue,
25:31in the first place, the financial situation has improved a lot in the recent years due to inflation.
25:36One of the original purposes is to pay back some of the excess tax money.
25:41In addition, if this is the case,
25:44of course, some of the consumption will be revitalized.
25:48According to my calculations,
25:50about 20% of it will probably come back naturally.
25:54I don't think we should pay too much attention to the fact that there is not enough tax revenue.
26:01However, it will be a hole in the middle.
26:04For example, this 1.78 million yen is probably calculated at the lowest level.
26:09Consumers only get 1.17 million yen.
26:13But in the end, this is not taxable for the necessary income to live a minimum life.
26:19If you look at the cost of living products alone,
26:24it's about 1.28 million yen.
26:27For example, if you calculate the cost of food products alone,
26:31it's about 1.4 million yen.
26:33In the end, I personally think that's how it's going to settle down.
26:37Even if it exceeds 1.3 million yen,
26:39it's 5% of the minimum tax revenue, so even if you earn 1.4 million yen, it's still 500 yen.
26:44However, according to the National Democrats,
26:47students will be excluded from unemployment benefits.
26:50And based on the 1.3 million yen,
26:54there are companies that provide care for the disabled and families.
26:59So, I think we need to fix the delay.
27:03Regarding the 1.3 million yen,
27:05in the case of students, it's just a coincidence that the standard for basic improvement is like that.
27:11So, it's natural to review the standard.
27:15Another thing is that there are not enough people at work.
27:19There are students who quit their part-time jobs around October.
27:23People who work part-time are also affected by the fact that they can't come back soon.
27:27As Mr. Nagatsuma mentioned earlier, there is another social security barrier.
27:31I think this is a really big barrier.
27:34Yes, let's take a look.
27:35On the 13th, the National Democrats proposed a bill to pay pensions to people
27:40who exceed 1.3 million yen in social security benefits,
27:44so that their income will not decrease.
27:47It will gradually reduce the scope of the payment and support up to 2 million yen.
27:51According to the National Democrats,
27:53the target is about 3.56 million people,
27:56and the budget is about 7.8 billion yen.
28:01Mr. Nagatsuma, I'd like to ask you about the target.
28:03Now that the system is in place,
28:05do you think it will be a countermeasure to hit people by doing this in the future?
28:10Yes, the barrier is quite complicated.
28:13Some people think it's a 1.3 million yen barrier,
28:16but it's actually 1.3 million yen.
28:191.3 million yen is not a barrier, it's a cliff.
28:23If you exceed 1.3 million yen,
28:25your annual income will be reduced by about 300,000 yen.
28:30Moreover, you can't enter the retirement age.
28:34You can't enter the retirement age.
28:36So in that sense, this is really a huge cliff,
28:41and I think this solution is the biggest challenge of the emergency fund.
28:45I don't think the National Democrats have any objections to this,
28:49so I think we should do it as soon as possible.
28:52Another barrier is 1.6 million yen.
28:54This is also a cliff.
28:56If you exceed 1.6 million yen,
28:58your annual income will be reduced by about 150,000 yen.
29:02However, if you exceed 1.6 million yen,
29:07you can enter the retirement age.
29:09So there are benefits for the elderly.
29:13The biggest barrier is 1.3 million yen.
29:16The next barrier is 1.6 million yen.
29:19If we don't solve this,
29:21the employment environment in Japan will not improve.
29:26So I think we should do this as soon as possible.
29:291.3 million yen is not a tax issue.
29:34It's a social insurance issue.
29:37So even if we talk about it separately,
29:39the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare
29:42held a meeting yesterday and discussed it.
29:44We want as many people as possible to enter the retirement age.
29:49We want to get rid of the barrier of 1.3 million yen
29:53for companies under the age of 50
29:57and focus on time
30:00so that as many people as possible can enter.
30:03In the case of 1.6 million yen,
30:06the insurance costs will be reduced.
30:081.3 million yen will be reduced.
30:10However, the difference is that
30:12if it's a public pension,
30:14it's easier to get than a national pension.
30:16In the future, there will be more pensions.
30:18So even if it's 1.6 million yen,
30:221.3 million yen,
30:24the costs will be reduced.
30:26So how do we deal with that?
30:29Of course, there is a part of raising the rent.
30:31But as Mr. Rikken said,
30:33how do we deal with it
30:35when it's 1.3 million yen?
30:37I think it's a political issue.
30:39Mr. Sato, even if it's over 1.3 million yen,
30:42you can't enter the retirement age.
30:44It's the same as the national pension.
30:46This is a big obstacle.
30:48Right now, it's the age of 50.
30:50But we're trying to get people
30:52as close to the retirement age as possible.
30:55We're trying to get people
30:57as close to the retirement age as possible.
31:00Mr. Nakayama, one more thing.
31:02In terms of subsidies,
31:04if you fix 1.3 million, 1.6 million, 1.3 million yen,
31:06for example, in the tourism industry,
31:08there are people who want to stay,
31:10but they don't have enough people.
31:12There are aspects that prevent economic growth.
31:14If these things are reviewed,
31:16does it seem to have a significant effect?
31:18Yes.
31:19If you make it as smooth as the real estate tax,
31:21I think you can expect a significant effect
31:23on the efficiency of employment.
31:25But on the other hand,
31:27as I mentioned earlier,
31:29if you pay too much tax on inflation,
31:31there is a possibility that this alone
31:33will not be enough.
31:35So I think it will depend on
31:37which part of the national pension
31:39you are focusing on.
31:41I think it will depend on
31:43which part of the national pension
31:45you are focusing on.
31:47Looking at various systems
31:49from deflation to inflation
31:51and various pension systems
31:53next year,
31:55it's going to be quite difficult.
31:57It's going to be quite difficult.
31:59Let me explain.
32:01For gasoline,
32:03there is an oil tax and a gasoline tax
32:05for the actual price of gasoline.
32:07And since the road has to be maintained,
32:09there is a fixed tax rate of 25 yen
32:11on top of that.
32:13What the People's Ministry is arguing
32:15is that it's been 50 years
32:17since it was introduced in 1974,
32:19but how long have they been doing this?
32:21On top of that, there is a consumption tax
32:23for the whole system,
32:25and a subsidy for that.
32:27Originally, there was a system
32:29to lower the tax rate
32:31on top of that,
32:33but the People's Ministry is arguing
32:35that it should be resolved
32:37because there is a system
32:39to lower the tax rate on top of that.
32:41According to the government,
32:43if the tax rate drops by 25 yen,
32:45there will be a gasoline tax
32:47on top of that.
32:49In 2008,
32:51the same thing happened
32:53with the tax rate on top of that.
32:55The same thing happened
32:57with the tax rate on top of that.
32:59The same thing happened
33:01with the tax rate on top of that.
33:03The same thing happened
33:05with the tax rate on top of that.
33:07The same thing happened
33:09with the tax rate on top of that.
33:11The same thing happened
33:13with the tax rate on top of that.
33:15The same thing happened
33:17with the tax rate on top of that.
33:19The same thing happened
33:21with the tax rate on top of that.
33:23The same thing happened
33:25with the tax rate on top of that.
33:27The same thing happened
33:29with the tax rate on top of that.
33:31The same thing happened
33:33with the tax rate on top of that.
33:35The same thing happened
33:37with the tax rate on top of that.
33:39The same thing happened
33:41with the tax rate on top of that.
33:43The same thing happened
33:45with the tax rate on top of that.
33:47The same thing happened
33:49with the tax rate on top of that.
33:51The same thing happened
33:53with the tax rate on top of that.
33:55The same thing happened
33:57with the tax rate on top of that.
33:59The same thing happened
34:01with the tax rate on top of that.
34:03The same thing happened
34:05with the tax rate on top of that.
34:07The same thing happened
34:09with the tax rate on top of that.
34:11The same thing happened
34:13with the tax rate on top of that.
34:15The same thing happened
34:17with the tax rate on top of that.
34:19The same thing happened
34:21with the tax rate on top of that.
34:23The same thing happened
34:25with the tax rate on top of that.
34:27The same thing happened
34:29with the tax rate on top of that.
34:31The same thing happened
34:33with the tax rate on top of that.
34:35The same thing happened
34:37with the tax rate on top of that.
34:39The same thing happened
34:41with the tax rate on top of that.
34:43The same thing happened
34:45with the tax rate on top of that.
34:47The same thing happened
34:49with the tax rate on top of that.
34:51The same thing happened
34:53with the tax rate on top of that.
34:55The same thing happened
34:57with the tax rate on top of that.
34:59The same thing happened
35:01with the tax rate on top of that.
35:03The same thing happened
35:05with the tax rate on top of that.
35:07The same thing happened
35:09with the tax rate on top of that.
35:11The same thing happened
35:13with the tax rate on top of that.
35:15It's hard to understand
35:17because it's a very typical
35:19accumulation, isn't it?
35:21What should we do?
35:23I agree with the trigger information.
35:25I agree with the trigger information.
35:27What's different from subsidies
35:29is the marketability.
35:31What's different from subsidies
35:33is the marketability.
35:35With the current subsidies,
35:37there is a standard price
35:39and how the current price works
35:41for the current price.
35:43When the trigger happens,
35:45the price drops
35:47and when the current price
35:49rose it means
35:51the price of gasoline
35:53rises to increase
35:55the price of gasoline
35:57so that you can
35:59buy more gasoline.
36:01so that you can
36:03buy more gasoline.
36:05The only thing is
36:07the price rises
36:09For example, if the price changes are to be adjusted step-by-step,
36:15I think it would be better to consider such things and go to the same person.
36:19This information itself is from the time of the Democratic Party, right?
36:22Yes, I made it.
36:23I wonder if it could have been activated if it had been made a little easier to use.
36:27If there are various proposals, I would like to negotiate flexibly and land.
36:33This is also related to something else.
36:35There is also a way of thinking that you do not take it from the beginning rather than taking it and giving it to the supplementary fund again.
36:40There is also a point that reducing gasoline costs is counterproductive to global warming measures.
36:45Originally, it would be a separate tax for renewable energy.
36:50In any case, I think it's time to talk about it in a big frame, but it hasn't happened yet.
36:56Yes, after the commercial, I will think about how to respond to President Trump who was re-elected.
37:05We have been looking at domestic movements so far,
37:08but from here, we will think about how to deal with Trump's next administration abroad.
37:15First of all, let's look back at the major political events in the future.
37:18Prime Minister Ishiba is now in the South America, attending APEC and G20.
37:24The next focus is to return to Kiro on the 21st,
37:28but it is said that it is very important whether Trump will meet in Kiro or not.
37:33The Liberal Democratic Party and the Democratic People's Party will hold a meeting
37:38to discuss the 1.3 million yen issue, which is centered on taxation,
37:42and to solidify economic measures abroad.
37:44After the Prime Minister returns, he will convene a temporary parliament on the 28th,
37:48and from there, the treatment of supplementary budget and political reform laws will be decided.
37:54Looking ahead to next year, the Trump administration on January 20 will take over.
37:58This is a very world-famous attention.
38:02In January of next year, Trump, who will take over as President of the United States,
38:06has raised what is expected to be required by Japan.
38:11Increased defense costs, direct investment from Japan,
38:15importation of agricultural products, improvement of trade revenue,
38:19importation of energy, and contribution to the semiconductor industry, etc.
38:24This is what Trump did when he was in power.
38:29Mr. Sato, if the Trump administration is formed, what do you think will happen in Japan?
38:34How should we deal with it?
38:36The most difficult thing is the so-called security front and the so-called front.
38:40I think this requires a lot of power.
38:43I think that Trump's alliance is a negative existence that is just a burden on the United States.
38:51I don't agree with it unless we increase the role and budget of Japan.
38:57If the US-China confrontation becomes intense,
39:01Japan should increase its role to protect its own country to a certain extent.
39:07I think that the security front will be much stronger
39:11when the United States sees Japan and the United States through the lens of the US-China.
39:14When it comes to the so-called front,
39:16at the time of the Trump administration,
39:19there was a lot of competition, but cars were excluded.
39:24In the mid-to-late election two years later,
39:29there were a lot of agricultural-related elections.
39:31Many countries, including Japan,
39:33are asking for a market exchange of agricultural products.
39:36I think that the so-called front will be pushed in
39:39unless Japan puts a lot of effort into it.
39:43Mr. Sato, I would like to ask you two questions.
39:45First, about the security of the boat.
39:47When the Trump administration came to power,
39:49it said that it would not allow allieship to the NATO countries.
39:52For example, it said that it would not protect the country
39:56without putting 2% of its own burden on the GDP.
40:00Now, as a result of the increase in defense spending in the Kishida administration,
40:03Japan is trying to achieve a level of GDP of 2% in five years,
40:07but the demand is getting stronger.
40:09I think it's getting stronger.
40:10NATO wants to achieve 2% defense spending on GDP.
40:16At the time, there were only four countries.
40:18With the pressure of Trump, the number increased to 21 countries.
40:22It's a successful experience.
40:24Do you think that Japan still has little role in the US-Japan alliance?
40:30For example, out of 100 members of the US-Japan alliance,
40:33if America has 70 members and Japan has about 30 members,
40:37Japan has about 50 members,
40:40and the US-Japan alliance has 120 members.
40:46I don't know if the Corbyn administration will join,
40:51but they have been saying that the GDP is 3% defense spending since the election.
40:58In the Bolton administration,
41:01the budget for the alliance was about $800 million.
41:06At that time, it was about 900 billion yen.
41:09As a result, it is now about 2.1 billion yen.
41:11I think there is a good chance that they will say this again.
41:14I have one more question for Mr. Sato.
41:16At the time, Prime Minister Abe was there.
41:19He won the presidential election,
41:21but he went to the Trump Tower in New York to make a relationship.
41:25At that time, Mr. Abe himself was quite rebellious in the Security Council.
41:30I've heard that he made Mr. Trump say that he was a rebellious genius.
41:35In the general election, Mr. Amari, Mr. Akira Amari, and Mr. Motegi
41:39fought hard as the cabinet ministers.
41:42I think Japan was in a good relationship among foreign countries.
41:46Looking at this time, Mr. Ishiba and the cabinet ministers,
41:49I feel that they have a little experience.
41:52It may be a little difficult to answer.
41:54In the current cabinet of President Ishiba,
41:57there is a strict aspect of facing the Trump administration.
42:03Mr. Amari and Mr. Motegi, who have just been named,
42:08will also cooperate.
42:10It is important to create a very powerful vice president,
42:15including the Liberal Democratic Party.
42:19Otherwise, the Biden administration is a different government.
42:24If you don't think of it as a different country, you'll be really pushed into it.
42:28Trump himself is aware of the failure of the first administration.
42:34He will not do such a thing.
42:36It's just like America First.
42:38If you put in a vice president who will ban the U.S. investment,
42:43I'm thinking of doing it for 12 years from now.
42:46I'm working on it now.
42:48I think it's very tough if Japan doesn't put in more effort than it has done so far.
42:57I'd like to ask Mr. Nakatsuma.
42:59As a result of the election campaign, the Liberal Democratic Party split in half.
43:02Some members of the Liberal Democratic Party joined Mr. Noda Yoshiko.
43:08Among them, there were many executives who said they would not make such a choice
43:13because they could not get along with the safety insurance and energy policy of the Liberal Democratic Party.
43:20But the Trump administration was able to do it.
43:22Mr. Nakatsuma, as a conservative, you don't have to increase the cost of defense that much.
43:28Or a safety policy that recognizes collective self-defense.
43:33This is also a position of opinion.
43:35This part is quite difficult.
43:37From the perspective of foreign security, I feel that it is quite difficult.
43:42First of all, it's not that I accept everything that President Trump has said.
43:51Actually, when President Trump was president, I went to the United States and exchanged views with the members of the House of Representatives.
44:00At that time, the atmosphere was that the United States was a country with a very strong sense of justice, so I wouldn't do such a reckless thing.
44:08This time, Trump won by a landslide, and more than half of the members of the House of Representatives voted for the Liberal Democratic Party.
44:14I think it's going to be even more powerful than the Trump administration.
44:20We are also promoting a realistic safety policy.
44:24However, Japan's defense spending has actually doubled by 2% of its GDP.
44:29The U.S. has also told us that Japan's defense spending is 3% of its GDP.
44:35It is wrong to increase the cost of defense without accumulating the contents.
44:41We have also made a proposal to the government.
44:44We need to work on such a premise.
44:47Another concern is that the trade war between China and the U.S. may be resumed.
44:54If the U.S. spends a lot of money on such things,
44:58cheap goods from China will not go to the U.S., but will flow to Asia or the world.
45:03We are also very concerned about the economic chaos that will lead to a deflation.
45:10In a sense, I think Trump is a little different from the mainstream thinking of U.S. safety insurance and foreign exchange.
45:19The mainstream way of thinking is to cooperate with Japan.
45:24Mr. Trump will tell Mr. Ishiba about the reality of Japan's position and the safety insurance of the world.
45:32I wish I could meet him in Florida.
45:36That's what I'm trying to do.
45:39Also, the U.S. is first.
45:42When negotiating, I want to talk about the interests of the U.S. first.
45:45I want the U.S. interests to lead to the overall interests.
45:50I want Japan to proceed with a proper foreign exchange.
45:54Mr. Nagahama, you are a president who does not care about free trade.
45:58And you have said a lot about Japan, including the production of man-made products.
46:03Isn't this a concern?
46:05That's right.
46:06I think what Mr. Nagahama said is exactly right.
46:09The U.S. and Japan's additional tariffs were discussed last time.
46:13What happened in the end was that the Japanese economy was in a state of crisis from November 2018.
46:21I think this is very important.
46:24Another thing is that the current Ishiba administration is trying to act as an engine for economic growth.
46:31They are trying to increase domestic production and direct investment in foreign companies.
46:40But what Trump is trying to do is to bring it to the U.S.
46:46I think semiconductors are particularly important.
46:50In the semiconductor field, Japan's domestic production is still strong in manufacturing equipment and materials.
46:57If such a place is brought to the U.S. as a production base,
47:02the seeds of Japan's growth engine will be taken away.
47:07I think we need to resist this part firmly.
47:11It's very important.
47:13That's all for Mr. Nagahama's appearance.
47:15Thank you very much.
47:17After the break, we will have market information.
47:28Here is an announcement.
47:29The guest of tomorrow's Nikkei Sunday Salon is President Itsunori Onodera of the Liberal Democratic Party.
47:34Mr. Sakamoto, what are the highlights?
47:36I recorded it on the program yesterday.
47:38I am serious about the National Democratic Party, but I would like to continue to support the Liberal Democratic Party.
47:44I think that the responsibility of the ruling party is increasing.
47:48Next week, Mr. Onodera, I would like to invite Mr. Shigetoku of the Liberal Democratic Party.
47:54Please take a look.
47:55Here is the market information.
47:57The New York Dow Jones fell in the New York stock market on the 15th.
48:01The end was $403,444, which is $305 cheaper.
48:06The Nasdaq, which has a high ratio of high-tech stocks, fell by four days.
48:09The end was 18,680, which is 427 points lower.
48:14The end of the New York foreign exchange market was $1.154, which is 2 yen and 15,000 yen, from the 10,000 to the 20,000 range.
48:22The average daily income in Chicago is 38,015 yen.
48:25It is 600 yen cheaper than the end of the daily average Friday.
48:32I asked the market officials about the stock price forecast at the end of December.
48:36I expect the stock price to fall by 41,500 yen.
48:40As a point of interest, the decline in the FOMC in December and the Uwane challenge at the end of the year will determine how much the market price in July will be pushed up.
48:51And the Daiwa Syokei's yesterday's asset is expected to be 40,000 yen.
48:54It is expected to enter the Trump rally and go to domestic politics.
48:57However, it is important to note that foreign investors do not like the state of the Hang Parliament, which has no right to close the lower half of the session.
49:05Let's look at next week's schedule.
49:07Ishiba, who is visiting the U.S., is paying attention to whether he will go to America and meet Trump.
49:15Mr. Sato, are you interested in next week's schedule?
49:18Actually, I'm interested in the COP.
49:21After the resolution, the summit will begin.
49:24The most important thing is to collect funds.
49:27When Trump comes, there will be talk of withdrawal.
49:32It is very difficult to collect funds.
49:35I'm paying attention to how Japan will fill the gap and respond.
49:40The role of Japan will be asked.
49:42I understand.
49:43That's all for today.
49:44Thank you very much.
49:48Thank you very much.
50:18Thank you very much.