AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva and Bernie Rayno warn of the increased risk of tropical activity in the Caribbean and Atlantic as we move into the month of November.
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00:00Alex, let's talk about the Caribbean and another area that we're watching here for development
00:06in the next couple of days.
00:08Yeah, well the season is certainly not over yet.
00:10The tropical Atlantic tropical season goes until the end of November, so we still have
00:15another month that we have to pay very close attention.
00:18Now, this time of year we typically look a little bit closer to home and look what we
00:21have here.
00:22We have two different areas that we're watching for development.
00:24The area in the Caribbean, I agree with you Bernie, I think this area is certainly going
00:28to develop.
00:29The area to the north of the islands there, that's on the tail end of a cold front.
00:32I don't think that's going to be any kind of threat to the United States and that may
00:35just get sheared apart up there as the environment is not very favorable up in that area.
00:40It's the pattern that we saw over a week ago that pointed us down into the Caribbean.
00:46That is we have a big high pressure system now off the east coast that forced the front
00:50south into the northern Caribbean and south of that front you're already starting to see
00:55thunderstorms develop.
00:57Yeah, we're starting to see stuff.
00:59If you look just north of Panama City, they're way, way, way south in the Caribbean there.
01:02We're starting to get a little bit of activity developing.
01:05I don't think anything's going to happen in the near term.
01:07The environment is quite hostile there right now, but look at these water temperatures.
01:12These are the anomalies, so how much of a difference above historical averages are we?
01:17We're several degrees above where we should be in the Caribbean right now.
01:20Temperatures there should be in the low 80s.
01:22We're more like the mid 80s, so plenty of juice to work with.
01:25The water temperatures are not going to be a problem.
01:27Here is the problem, and this is typically the problem this time of the year, wind shear.
01:32Our wind shear product is showing a lot of dark purple in the Caribbean and the southwest Atlantic.
01:37Yeah, this is why we don't think that development is going to happen over the next couple of days.
01:41It's more the beginning of November here.
01:44It's again due to that plenty of wind shear, but as we move into November here this weekend
01:48into early next week, the wind shear is really going to back off here, and that's why that
01:53combined with the water temperatures I think is going to lead to development.
01:57It's going to be a very prime environment, and so something could develop fairly quickly
02:01down there as we go into the beginning of November.
02:04All right, now the question is, is where is it going?
02:06And listen, we've had two trains of thoughts here.
02:09Depending on when you would get an organized tropical system to develop, and timing is
02:16always the key here.
02:18It certainly is, and the timing and strength of a big area of high pressure to the north
02:22is also going to be key here.
02:24If the high is stronger, that will actually push the storm westward, and that's more of
02:28that western track, and then the storm might actually kind of move towards the Yucatan
02:32and then up maybe northeast from there.
02:34If the high is a little bit weaker, that can actually allow the storm to move north across
02:38Cuba and Hispaniola, and hopefully out to sea, so hopefully there's an exit.
02:43But if the storm kind of meanders down there, that high will really build into the north
02:47and it could trap the storm essentially in the Caribbean, and then we really have to
02:51watch south Florida for potential impacts.