AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva tracks new threats of tropical development brewing in the Caribbean and the Atlantic as of Oct. 15, as well as the regions at risk of these storms.
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00:00Alex, we're breaking down a couple of areas in the tropics right now.
00:03Yeah, watching two areas, one in the western Caribbean and then one tropical wave way out
00:08in the Atlantic right now.
00:10But I have some good news, the one in the western Caribbean right now, a couple of days
00:14ago we were concerned that there was a track that could potentially take that feature a
00:17little further north.
00:18It does look like that's going to go west into Mexico, the feature that's circled at
00:22the bottom left of your screen there.
00:24So good news there is that it looks like it should stay away from the U.S.
00:27The other feature way out in the Atlantic right there, that's a tropical wave heading
00:31west and we saw that Puerto Rico cam.
00:33Things could look a little bit different as we head into the weekend as that storm could
00:37bring some rain and wind.
00:39And we have a few concerns for this because this will strengthen likely into a tropical
00:43storm but everything's a little bit different there as it cuts its way across the islands.
00:47Yeah, we're going to have to watch it as it comes across.
00:50It's in a pretty hostile environment right now so I don't think any development will
00:54be occurring in the near term.
00:56However, once it approaches those islands late this week, there can be that opportunity
01:00for it to strengthen into a tropical named storm.
01:02Yeah, we'll be talking about that trying to work its way on through.
01:06So there's that area of development, tropical rainstorm.
01:08I want to get ahead to where that is and when you look at the satellite imagery, what do
01:13you see with this, at least as of recently?
01:15Yeah, I see a rainstorm that's struggling to get organized right now.
01:18The center of circulation is a little bit removed essentially from those thunderstorms
01:23and if you really want development, you have to have those thunderstorms forming right
01:27over top of the center of circulation.
01:28So it's a little bit disheveled right now.
01:30There's some wind shear, there's some dry air.
01:32So in terms of the near term, I don't really see too much development.
01:36Now, the game will change as it approaches the islands, a little bit more favorable environment.
01:41So I am concerned that the storm could get a little bit more organized and we could see
01:45a named storm in the vicinity of those islands up there.
01:49And when you talk about favorable environment, we often think of the water temperature.
01:53We know that's really not a challenge.
01:54So what kind of ingredients are we looking at?
01:56Yeah, it's going to be the wind shear.
01:58Again, right now it's in an area where there's pretty high wind shear, but once it gets near
02:02those islands there, the wind shear is going to relax.
02:04And so that could give the storm a narrow window of time to potentially develop into
02:08a tropical storm.
02:09So we're going to have to watch this very, very carefully.
02:11It looks like rain is going to be probably the primary factor from this storm.
02:16There's a lot of very high mountains there, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, mountaintops of 7,000,
02:218,000, 9,000 feet.
02:22And so it's going to be like a sponge.
02:23It's really going to squeeze out a lot of that rainfall.
02:26So I am concerned, regardless of how organized it gets, that there could be some mudslides
02:30and landslides in the higher terrain.
02:32And obviously differences, too, between those countries of how their infrastructure is organized
02:36there on Hispaniola.
02:38All things we'll be watching.
02:40AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, Alexis Silva, thank you so much for joining us.