A quiet start to the week with some chilly mornings before the jet stream ramps up again later this week, bringing a return to wet and windy weather.
Bringing you this forecast for the week ahead is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
Bringing you this forecast for the week ahead is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Hello. The first week of October was a wet week for Western Scotland. Some areas saw
00:05close to their October rainfall average in just a week or so. Now over the last few days
00:10it's become less wet as a ridge of high pressure has built from the south-west but we've still
00:14seen showers coming into the north-west and they'll continue on Monday night. Elsewhere
00:17with that ridge of high pressure, light winds, clear skies, we start off Tuesday fairly chilly
00:23actually across parts of England, Wales, into southern Scotland, perhaps eastern Scotland
00:27as well. Low single figures in places, perhaps even in one or two spots, a touch of air frost.
00:33But after that chilly start actually plenty of sunshine for England, Wales, into southern
00:36and eastern Scotland. A different story for Western Scotland, parts of Northern Ireland,
00:40cloudier skies here and some showers. Those showers in places turning to more persistent
00:45spells of rain as the rain clouds gather towards the north-west during Tuesday afternoon. Elsewhere
00:51there'll be one or two showers, perhaps for the Pennines but otherwise for much of England
00:54and Wales it's a bright afternoon with further sunny spells and with light winds 16 Celsius
01:00will feel quite pleasant. 13 or 14 for Scotland and Northern Ireland, a little bit milder
01:04compared with Monday but with I think more cloud in the sky and a freshening south-westerly
01:08it may not feel like that's the case. Now the outbreaks of rain are arriving ahead of
01:14this weather front. It's a cold front, it's not going to bring a huge amount of rainfall
01:17but it does mark the boundary between generally quieter weather and a more active jet stream
01:22which will dominate things from mid-week onwards and more on the jet stream in just
01:27a moment. But we start off Wednesday with outbreaks of rain heavy at times for Western
01:31Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing into northern and western England as well as Wales.
01:36The weather front slices the country in two, you can see all the cloud associated with
01:40it there but the rain tends to fizzle into showers and I think it'll stay largely dry
01:44in the south-east through Wednesday with sunny spells and brightening skies for Scotland
01:48and Northern Ireland as well. 13 to 15 Celsius here, 16 or 17 ahead of the weather front
01:53but not feeling as warm in the cloudier zone in between. The front does eventually weaken
02:00and disappear, runs into the high pressure ahead of it and a little ridge of high pressure
02:04follows it for clear skies on Thursday as we start the day on Thursday. But, well, waiting
02:11in the wings, two areas of low pressure and an active jet stream. Fairly unusual pattern
02:19emerges around Thursday with two streams joining together out in the mid-Atlantic with this
02:26jet stream and then that interacts with these two areas of low pressure. And when we've
02:31got all these different features interacting with each other, well, inevitably there will
02:35be some uncertainty in terms of the details for later this week because some computer
02:40models reckon that this area of low pressure will be picked up by the jet stream and deepen
02:45as it pushes to the north of the UK. Other computer models want to deepen this area of
02:48low pressure and this trailing weather front also is subject to some uncertainty in terms
02:55of how it runs an area of rain along the south of the UK on Friday or Saturday. So these
03:01different elements lead to some uncertainty in the details but the overall theme is pretty
03:06clear. We're going to see low pressure towards the north and north-west of the UK at the
03:10end of this week. We're going to see tight isobars. We're going to see wet and windy
03:13weather and quite a number of showers. So these areas of low pressure interacting in
03:19a fairly complicated way with this jet stream which comes together as two streams into one
03:25and as a result we can't put precise values on the wind speed and location of rainfall
03:31but what we can say is that Thursday at least will start off cold and bright. A touch of
03:36air frost for Scotland, parts of northern England. Sunny spells at first and we keep
03:40the largely dry and bright weather in the east at least into the afternoon. 14 or 15
03:46Celsius here but then the rain arrives in the west. This area of rain could be heavy
03:51at times especially towards the south-west by the afternoon and perhaps the north-west
03:55as well and as that rain moves in all areas are going to get a bit of a soaking and the
04:01winds will pick up as well but it's going to turn milder as well as that wind picks
04:05up. Now it's behind this rain that the low approach is quite close and that's when the
04:11winds really pick up. So Friday looks like a windier day. It's also going to be brighter.
04:15There'll be some sunny spells but quite a number of showers are going to move in on
04:19that wind which could be reaching gale force across northern parts of the UK especially
04:23around exposed coasts and hills. Of course that's going to make it feel cool. The showers
04:27will be heavy and frequent as well so a lively day is expected. Fewer showers further south
04:32but I think here there is that risk of a more prolonged spell of rain for a time although
04:37of course we do need the rain in the south and the south-east in particular. Now all
04:42of this will be accompanied by those strong winds so a blustery day for all and you can
04:46see how the isobars are tightly packed together as we start off the weekend. So even though
04:51there are some uncertainties in terms of the details about these areas of low pressure
04:54and where they'll be positioned and their shape and so on, I think something roughly
04:59like this will occur at the start of the weekend. Low pressure to the north, tight isobars,
05:03a brisk westerly airflow and a number of showers for many especially towards the west. So an
05:09unsettled period coming up with that active jet stream. Of course we'll pin down those
05:14details over the next few days and you can stay across all of those on social media.