This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days, dated 08/05/2024.
After a period of some dry, bright and warm weather for many, it’s all change as we head through the weekend into next week with the return of the wind and rain. Temperatures will drop too, though still likely to remain above average.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
After a period of some dry, bright and warm weather for many, it’s all change as we head through the weekend into next week with the return of the wind and rain. Temperatures will drop too, though still likely to remain above average.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello, very good day to you. Welcome to your latest Met Office 10 day trend. Now, I do
00:05have some good news for you, if you're in the minority of people not enjoying the fine
00:09sunny weather at the moment, because it's all changed as we go through this weekend
00:13and in particular into next week. Let's start off looking at the pressure trend. And if
00:17you've seen this chart before, you'll know the reds indicate that high pressure is more
00:22likely and high pressure means settled conditions. That's what we have at the moment for the
00:27next few days through the rest of this week. High pressure firmly in control. But as we
00:31go through towards Sunday and more so into towards Monday, we're seeing some blues and
00:35these indicate that low pressure is more likely. And with that, we're going to see the return
00:40of something wet and windy as well. But let's look at the details. And at the moment we
00:44have this whacking great big area of high pressure across the UK, which is why it's
00:49so settled. The jet stream isn't particularly strong and it's just going towards the north
00:53of us, which means we're on the warmer southern side of it. So as well as it being pretty
00:58settled, it is also pretty warm at the moment with temperatures above average for the time
01:02of year. High pressure will continue to dominate as we go through the rest of this week. Notice
01:06some fronts trying to come around towards the north of it. So there will be some wet
01:10weather towards the northwest of the UK, but most places staying fine and settled well
01:14into the weekend. Saturday, yes, the high has drifted off a little bit towards the east,
01:19but still dominating our weather. So another fine settled day. And in fact, by then, because
01:24of the slight change in the wind direction as that high drifts away towards the east,
01:28we're going to have slightly warmer air. So temperatures rising a little bit further,
01:32probably peaking this week on Saturday. But thereafter, things take a bit of a downward
01:37turn in terms of the unsettled weather that's going to arrive. We're likely to see something
01:41a bit wetter arriving as we go through Sunday and then particularly by Monday, a good chance
01:46that we'll have an area of low pressure somewhere near the UK, bringing something wet and windy
01:51to many places. With that, then we're also going to start to see our temperatures dropping.
01:56They're not going to drop sharply, but especially when you factor in that there'll be some wet
02:01and windy weather around, it is going to feel markedly cooler by the start of next week
02:05than it will do through Friday and Saturday, especially. Looking at the details then, if
02:10we wind it back and if we look at Thursday, and like I said, a fine picture for many.
02:15Yes, there'll be a bit of mist and fog first thing, but that will lift and clear away and
02:18away from the very far northwest of Scotland, where there could be a bit of rain around,
02:22it's looking largely dry. Plenty of blue skies around, temperatures getting to highs of around
02:2623 or 24 Celsius. Staying fine as we go through Thursday evening. All the time, though, just
02:31towards the far north of the UK, a bit more cloud and some rain. Again, Friday, largely
02:36fine. High pressure is still firmly in control. Lots of dry weather to be had, perhaps Orkney,
02:41Shetland, seeing a few spells of rain and you can rule out one or two showers elsewhere.
02:45But on the whole, a generally dry picture and temperatures creeping up a little bit
02:49further. 23, 24, possibly even 25 Celsius. So really getting some warmth behind it, especially
02:55if you see any decent sunshine. If we go ahead now to Saturday, and like I said, this is
03:00when we're likely to see the highest temperatures this week. Plenty of sunshine. Yes, there
03:05could be some showers developing. I wouldn't take the position or timing of these particularly
03:09literally, but we do need to watch out for the fact that there could be some hefty showers
03:13on Saturday. But for most of us, another fine day. Plenty of blue skies around, lots
03:18of sunshine, just some fair weather cloud bubbling up here and there and temperatures
03:23even higher. 25, 26. Some charts were showing 27. I think that's pretty unlikely, but nonetheless
03:29mid 20s and so likely to be the warmest spell of the year so far. As we look further ahead,
03:35any showers likely to ease as we go through Saturday night into Sunday. But then we do
03:39start to see something a bit more unsettled pushing in from the West through Sunday. Most
03:43places starting the day fine, but likely to have some outbreaks of showery rain building
03:48across Western parts in particular. These could turn heavy, could turn thundery, particularly
03:53as we head through the afternoon and into the evening. Further east, we're clinging
03:56onto some sunshine and here we'll still have that hot air or warm air across us. And so
04:01temperatures still likely to be in the mid 20 Celsius, but starting to feel cooler where
04:06it turns a bit wet and perhaps even a bit blustery towards Western parts later on. If
04:10we now look ahead to Monday and this is when we're really going to see a bit of a change
04:14coming through. Monday does look like we're going to see this area of low pressure I mentioned
04:19before bringing some fairly wet weather across many parts of the country. And with that,
04:24we're going to have some strong winds and blustery winds could cause some localised
04:28issues. If we look at the rainfall figures that we could expect through Sunday and into
04:33Monday and here are our 36-hour rainfall totals running from midday on Sunday until
04:40midnight on Monday. Ignore the label at the top there. And on the left hand side, I have
04:44the Met Office data and it's highlighting that in total we could see, well, 30 millimetres
04:50on both Sunday and then 30 millimetres again on Monday. So, you know, if you added that
04:55up, you'd be looking at around 50 to 60. But I think it's quite unlikely that anywhere
04:58would actually see that total because you need to get those two extreme events in the
05:04same place. But nonetheless, a very wet spell coming through and the models are in fair
05:08agreement that it's mainly going to be on western parts that we're going to see the
05:12highest totals. The Met Office model wants it across South Wales and down the western
05:16side of the UK. The GFS, the American model, wants it a little bit further north. But you
05:20can see that it's going to be a pretty wet period as we go through Sunday into Monday.
05:25Now, looking further ahead as we go through next week, and this is our pressure anomaly
05:30from ECMWF and the bluey green colours show where lower than average pressure is most
05:36likely. And unfortunately, if it's dry weather that you're a fan of, this indicates that
05:41significantly lower than average pressure is going to dominate the picture as we go
05:45through the next week across much of the UK, particularly across central southern parts.
05:50Northern parts still lower than average, just not as low as elsewhere. And remember, low
05:55pressure means unsettled weather. So if we look at the rainfall anomaly and unsurprisingly,
06:00this paints a wet picture compared to average for the time of year across the majority of
06:04the UK as well. If we quickly also look at our temperatures, though, we'll come on to
06:08these in a bit more detail shortly. And although it is going to be pretty unsettled as if we
06:14look at the week as a whole, temperatures are actually likely to be a little bit above
06:18average for the time of year, not as high as they are at the moment, but still above
06:23average, although not necessarily always feeling it if it is going to be a bit wet
06:27at times too. Looking at things in a little bit more detail, and this is the most likely
06:31scenario for Wednesday, the 15th of May from ECMWF. And you can see that low pressure that
06:37I showed you arriving as we go through Monday doesn't look like it's going to go anywhere
06:42particularly quickly. It's likely to linger across the UK as we go through the middle
06:46of next week, bringing more wet and windy weather for a time or blustery at least. Not
06:51sure how windy it will be, but nonetheless, an unsettled spell as we go through the bulk
06:55of next week with low pressure firmly dominating, which goes in line with those ECMWF anomaly
07:01charts that I just showed you. If we move on a couple of days and look ahead to Friday,
07:05and this is now the most likely scenario, and it hints that low pressure will be starting
07:09to drift away. So possibly turning a little bit less unsettled, a greater chance of seeing
07:16something a bit dry, perhaps a little bit less blustery, a little bit less wet as we
07:21go through next week. But I think I'm clutching at straws trying to see anything a little
07:25bit less unsettled. Really, it could stay pretty wet as we go through much of next week.
07:31Then I mentioned temperatures. So I've gone through rainfall and I already showed you
07:34that on the whole, temperatures are likely to be above average for the time of year as
07:38we go through next week. But if we look at the meteorograms for our capital cities and
07:42they paint an interesting picture. So temperatures, let's take Belfast, for example, well above
07:47average for the time of year at the moment. And then they peak around this weekend, Saturday,
07:52possibly Sunday time, still well above average. And then they do drop down as we see the unsettled
07:57weather feeding its way in. And like I said, it is going to feel more unsettled, more cooler
08:03in the unsettled weather, but they're not really dropping too low. They're still lingering
08:08a little bit above average for the time of year, not as much above average for the time
08:13of year as they are currently. But nonetheless, in any drier, brighter periods that we will
08:18get and amongst the unsettled weather that we see next week, it shouldn't feel too bad
08:22with temperatures a little bit on the mild side. There is plenty of unsettled weather
08:26to come then. And there's the risk of some warnings needed to be required for the heavy
08:31rain both this weekend and as we go into next week, and the risk of some thunderstorms too.
08:37All of this is not unheard of in the summer months. Make sure you are weather ready for
08:42the summer ahead by heading to our website where you can find advice and guidance from
08:46both ourselves and also our partners. That's it for me. Obviously, we will keep you up
08:50to date with the forecast as we get nearer the time to the change from high to low pressure.
08:55I'll see you again soon. Bye bye.