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00:00The division series around Major League Baseball. What a duo we have, a pairing of them in the National League.
00:08Division series, divisional rivals in both of our sets.
00:13Of course, the New York Mets rallying in historic fashion last night in Milwaukee.
00:18They advance for a matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies in the division round that starts tomorrow around MLB.
00:26So let's start with the divisional odds for the NLDS between Philadelphia and New York.
00:32The Phil's a pretty hefty favorite at minus 188.
00:35Philadelphia has been great in the expanded postseason, which of course started during the 2022 campaign.
00:42They have played in the NLCS each of these past two years.
00:46Of course, they played in a World Series two years ago,
00:49but they were the wildcard team where Red October got an early start in Philly.
00:55Now they have earned the rest. And Joe, as we reach the division round in the MLB postseason with the expanded playoff format,
01:03this is the time where you just ask before the break 162 games in the regular season, the long marathon that it is in MLB.
01:12What does it matter? Here's where the conversation intensifies.
01:16Because if you are a wildcard team, and we have seen at least in the three six matchups,
01:21divisional champs, wildcard team needing it for the final two weeks,
01:25month of the regular season to get in those wildcard teams, the Tigers over the Astros in two games in Houston.
01:33The Mets get the last laugh over Milwaukee. The wildcard teams have been great so far in MLB postseason action.
01:43Ben, it feels like it's rinse and repeat here. We talk about this every postseason and then we forget what short memories we have.
01:50The same thing last year when Arizona, we got to this point and we were laughing like,
01:56well, there's no way Arizona is going to run a table here. Like, I mean, come on, you got to be kidding me.
02:00Congratulations. You got lucky out of a three game set, but there's no way.
02:04There's no way you're going to end up running the table and win the national.
02:08Well, I can make the same argument here for the New York Mets now against this Philadelphia team, can I?
02:13Who, by the way, Ben, Philadelphia in years past and their successful seasons usually did it the reverse way.
02:20They start slow and they finish playing their best baseball.
02:25I can make the argument Philadelphia play its best baseball early.
02:29And now I don't know what the hell you're going to get from them, which is worrisome.
02:34In the meantime, we have the Mets who are doing exactly what the Phillies did on their way to a World Series title over the last couple of years,
02:42Ben, which is play their best damn baseball, get all the breaks, everything rolling your way right now.
02:48Nothing on paper tells us the Mets should win this series when you look at the starting pitching rotations here.
02:54But guess what? You counting out the Mets now? Because I certainly can't.
02:59No, I don't think you can, Joe. How could you? You should not at this stage.
03:02But to Joe's point, the Philadelphia Phillies in the month following the All-Star break toward the end of August were 12 and 20 after losing the opener of a set on August 23rd against the Royals.
03:16Then they started to play much better baseball to kind of find their way to make sure they held off both the Braves and the Mets in the National League East.
03:26And of course, even contend for one of those two buys into the division round that we see here.
03:32In terms of the comparison between these divisional foes, Philadelphia won 7 of 13 against the Mets this year.
03:39But when New York needed to win games the second to last series or the second to last weekend, I should say, of the MLB regular season against Philadelphia, the Mets took 3 of 4 against the Phils.
03:53It put them in position to enter the final week knowing they just needed to win a few games against Milwaukee in the extended doubleheader set against Atlanta to get into the playoffs.
04:05That's exactly what they did.
04:07Game 1 tomorrow night at the bank.
04:10Red October intensifies in the city of brotherly love.
04:13We will see what the decision is for the Mets starter.
04:17We know it's going to be Zach Wheeler on the other side for the Phils.
04:20And much like the division series price, as you saw, minus 188.
04:25Joe, in favor of the Phitons, it's minus 188 to start Game 1 as well.
04:31And let me just say this, Ben, because this broke just a little while ago, that the Mets are considering activating Kodai Senga for the National League division series.
04:42And quite honestly, Ben, how in the hell do you not?
04:45I mean, when you look at Peterson's coming in relief last night for the first time in his career.
04:50I mean, they are running a little bit thin on arms because of how they've had to get to this point.
04:56And wouldn't it be interesting if Senga somehow makes it on to this roster?
05:01I guess, listen, all the available arms is possible at this point because it's only going to get harder from here.
05:08So that will be very interesting.
05:11Of course, you can make those roster updates entering each round in the MLB postseason.
05:17Now, from one divisional rivalry in the DS to another divisional rivalry, an in-state rivalry,
05:24an in-Southern California rivalry between San Diego and Los Angeles.
05:30For the third time in the last five MLB seasons, the Dodgers and the Padres meet in the National League division series.
05:37Throughout the regular season, the Padres won 8 of 13, but the Dodgers won the final two to clinch the National League West for the 11th time in the last 12 years.
05:48In 2020, in the COVID-shortened season, the Dodgers won a World Series.
05:52They swept the Padres in the NLDS.
05:56In 2022, in the start of the expanded playoffs, San Diego, as the wildcard team, they beat the Dodgers in four games in the division series.
06:06San Diego would play in the NLCS and come up a little bit short against Philadelphia.
06:10The Dodgers are a division series favorite at minus 134, as you would expect.
06:16But, Joe, it seems the number's a little bit tighter than maybe we would have anticipated about a month ago.
06:23And as well it should be, because let's face it here, you know, we talked about it last week, Ben.
06:28We'll keep talking about it.
06:30The starting rotation for the Dodgers is thin, and I mean very thin.
06:34They got a best-of-five series, Ben.
06:37And from the way I see it, the National League teams have back-to-back games twice.
06:43The American League teams only go back-to-back once.
06:46You better—the Padres have a much—even without Musgrove, who got hurt in that last start,
06:51they still have a much better starting rotation and are in better shape than what the Dodgers are.
06:56So it's going to be very interesting how the starting pitching works out here for the Dodgers.
07:03We'll continue to look at these sets in our third hour to set the stage for the weekend.
07:07But a change in starting pitcher for the Dodgers.
07:10Jack Flaherty listed as the opener for Game 1 yesterday.
07:15Now it's Yoshi Yamamoto making the start for L.A. against Dylan Cease.
07:19More on the early line next.
07:21Welcome to hour number three on a football Friday, but really a fall Friday, an October Friday.
07:27The first Friday in this month, which means playoff baseball continues.
07:32The wildcard round now done.
07:34After an exhilarating, historic, dramatic comeback in Milwaukee last night
07:39between the Mets and the Brewers.
07:41We set the stage for the division round, which starts tomorrow with all four sets
07:46and all four Game 1s on a Saturday quadrupleheader.
07:51And then we continue our football Friday.
07:54We'll hear from the people.
07:55Which game is most exciting?
07:57Which series is most exciting?
07:59Now in the DSs around MLB, college football on this Friday.
08:04And of course, our final half hour, Joe.
08:06It's our picks, our previews, our best bet, our pick six for week five of the NFL season.
08:14Yeah, nothing like urgency in sports.
08:18And we'll have a lot of it starting tomorrow with Major League Baseball postseason.
08:24And listen, it's already week six in college football, week five in the NFL.
08:28So urgency is upon us here.
08:31Urgency certainly is.
08:33It is win or go home.
08:35The Mets survived last night.
08:37Now to a best-of-five set in all four of our division series that begin tomorrow.
08:43We took an early look at the National League.
08:45We'll continue with some of the excitement for the NLDSs that are division series between divisional rivals.
08:51It's the Phils and the Mets.
08:53It's the Dodgers and the Padres.
08:55Now let's look at the American League, where the division series is largely occupied by one division,
09:01the American League Central.
09:03All three teams that made it to October from the AL Central now on to the second round.
09:09But we start with the number one overall seed in the American League playoff bracket.
09:14It's the Yankees, greater than a two-dollar favorite, Joe, against the Kansas City Royals in this division series.
09:21The oddsmakers are telling us, as you see, four and a half for the series total games and the under having the hefty juice.
09:29This should not be overly competitive.
09:31In fact, it might be a quick three-game sweep.
09:35But I will tell you this, all the pressure, all the notoriety is on the pinstripes from the Bronx.
09:43The New York Yankees' last World Series championship was in 2009.
09:49In fact, the last time they won the American League pennant, that was also in 2009.
09:54The Yankees, Joe, have made the postseason ten times since that last World Series title in 2009.
10:01They have not been back to the World Series.
10:04They have made the ALCS five times, but, of course, never claiming the pennant, which is always the ultimate goal.
10:12Will this year be different, and how does it get started in the DS against KC?
10:18Listen, kudos to the Royals for being here.
10:23I have no idea how that pitching staff, both the starters and the bullpen, actually held up as like they did against Baltimore.
10:32But I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that you scored three runs in 18 innings, and not for nothing, Ben.
10:40That is not going to get it done against the Yankees, especially in the Bronx,
10:46keeping in mind that the home road splits for Kansas City this year, night and day.
10:51They were a much better hitting team at home than they were on the road,
10:56and they've got to face Gary Cole here, who obviously is in pretty good form heading into the postseason,
11:04been there and done that, going up against Waukee here tonight.
11:09This is all going to come down to, can the pitching staff of the Royals handle Judge and Soto?
11:15And you can't just handle one.
11:17You have to be able to handle both.
11:19And if you don't, you're not winning this series here.
11:23And I would not at all be shocked.
11:25This might very well go four games, Ben, but I don't see it going five.
11:30I think the Yankees win this and advance here.
11:33And it's simply because the Yankees are the better hitting team,
11:37and they have two guys that you can't shut down simultaneously,
11:41and they are good enough to carry everybody else in the lineup, which is exactly what they did all year long.
11:48Yeah, that's what they did.
11:49But Aaron Judge, despite history in 2022, the last time prior to right now, New York was in the postseason,
11:57oh boy, was it a struggle at the dish.
12:00You see, minus 205 for game one, minus 205 for the overall series.
12:06I will make this point, though, that stands out ever so slightly,
12:10some changing odds, of course, for game number one tomorrow night in the Bronx.
12:14First pitch scheduled a little bit after 6.30 p.m. Eastern time.
12:17You saw the Royals in the series spread, getting a game and a half.
12:22What that would mean for KC to cover and to cash that bet is to force a fifth game or for Kansas City to win the series.
12:32But the most likely series correct score is the Yankees in four, which is three to one.
12:38They would cover the series spread at plus 270.
12:42So we see the Yanks is greater than a $2 favorite.
12:44In fact, this is the only of the four division sets that we have with a team greater than a $2 favorite to win the series outright.
12:52Just some of the oddities that we see in playoff series, which I think present great opportunity and value.
12:58Now, New York against Kansas City this year.
13:00They won five of seven in the season series.
13:03The Yankees against the American League Central, 24 and seven.
13:08And they will have home field advantage in this series.
13:11They'll have home field advantage the entirety of the way throughout the American League pennant chase.
13:17Three of the four division sets that we have are divisional rivalries, both in the National League and our second ALDS,
13:25the Cleveland Guardians, the champions of the American League Central against the hottest team in baseball since the month of September got underway.
13:35That's the Detroit Tigers sweeping Houston.
13:38In Houston, the Gritty Tigers, their first playoff series win since 2013 to advance to the American League Division Series.
13:47And Joe, despite being the sixth seed, this actually has the closer of the two series prices in the American League.
13:55Only minus 130 in favor of Cleveland.
13:58The Tigers, the underdog, sure, at plus 108.
14:01But they were a much heftier underdog in their opening round set against the Astros.
14:06Just how competitive will this AL Central divisional rivalry be now in the ALDS?
14:14I mean, listen, not one, not two, but three American League Central teams are vying here for a shot at an American League pennant and a World Series,
14:25which was just unthinkable then a little over a month ago, was never, ever, ever into consideration.
14:32And here we are.
14:33I am going to be fascinated with this one more than the others, Ben, simply because does the rust become a problem?
14:43Extended layoff.
14:45Is that an issue in Major League Baseball?
14:47Because the Guardians, don't forget, got there, were rained out on the final day at a regular season.
14:53They didn't play.
14:53True.
14:54They will have not played in over a week by the time they get to the pitch on Saturday.
14:59And yet Detroit, here we go, Detroit, just rolling right through here and continuing to play unbelievable baseball.
15:07So I think this is going to be a fascinating case of, hey, it's all great that you get the buy-in stuff,
15:13but there's a weak layoff for a Guardians team that was 500 after the All-Star break at best.
15:19Is that a good thing, going up against one of the hottest teams right now in Major League Baseball?
15:24Time will tell here, Ben.
15:26I think Game 1 is going to go a long way into deciding who wins this series.
15:30The Tigers are a heavier underdog, more of an underdog.
15:34The Guardians more of a favorite in Game 1 than the overall series itself.
15:40Cleveland minus 146 tomorrow in the first of four games that we have just a little bit after 1 p.m. Eastern.
15:47Total is 7.
15:49It will be fascinating, Joe, to see what A.J. Hinch does with his starting staff.
15:53Tarek Skubal, sensational.
15:55Can he pitch a couple of times in this best-of-five if it goes the duration?
16:00You would think so, but we saw seven pitchers used for Detroit to close out the short two-game set in Houston.
16:09Tanner Bybee gets the start for the Guardians on the other side.
16:14I cannot wait for some October baseball to continue tomorrow.
16:18Four games on a Saturday.
16:22We also have college football to preview.
16:24We'll do that in just a little bit.
16:26But before we get there, we got to hear from the people, Joe, of all four of these division series.
16:30Now into the second round of the MLB postseason.
16:33Which one is the most compelling?
16:35Find out next in Fade to Public.
16:37Let's hear from the people, shall we?
16:39It is time to hear everybody's assessment on the four division series that we have that begin tomorrow on the first Saturday of October.
16:49On to the second round of the MLB postseason.
16:52Three of the four division series between divisional rivals, both in the National League.
16:58Is there too much American League Central for our liking with all the pressure and the impetus on the New York Yankees?
17:06Does that make it the most exciting?
17:08Which of the four sets that we have now in the division round of the MLB postseason is most intriguing?
17:15That was the question for all of you in Fade to Public.
17:26Joe, I don't think it should be a shock to know how good the matchups are in the National League with very strong divisional ties
17:34and some heated intensity between both of the organizations facing off in both of those division series
17:42that the NL kind of won this poll.
17:44That's sports grid on Twitter.
17:46Which MLB division series is the most intriguing?
17:49Mets, Phillies, Padres, Dodgers, Royals, Yankees, Tigers, Guardian.
17:54Nearly half of the Fade to Public poll back in the Padres and the Dodgers followed, I guess, at least in second
18:02with nearly 27% on the Mets and the Phillies.
18:06The Tigers in the Guardians third most, the Yankees in the Royals fourth most.
18:11Which way did you vote, Geronario, in the Fade to Public poll?
18:14Well, I think the Padres, Dodgers certainly is what's going to move the needle here.
18:20And I think the public is on to something because many people believe that the winner of this series is your National League champion
18:29and in all likelihood going to be the favorite to win the whole thing here.
18:34So I do think that's the series that has the most juice.
18:38But again, I think there are two series here in which we've got teams that we all thought had no business being here,
18:46but yet here they are playing amazing baseball.
18:50Will the luck run out with the Tigers and the Mets?
18:52Those two series to me are way more fascinating than anything the Dodgers and the Padres are going to bring to the table.
18:59Yeah, I think storyline, rivalry, how compelling it has been between the Dodgers and the Padres in the last half decade
19:06as this Southern California rivalry has really boomed makes it the most exciting.
19:12But I agree, Joe, the Phillies and the Mets, no love lost between those two organizations.
19:18If it was the Phil's and the Mets, perhaps in that doubleheader to end out the regular season,
19:23I don't think there would have been handshakes and celebrations on the field at either Citi Field or at the bank in Philadelphia.
19:31None of these four teams in the National League really care for each other.
19:35And you've got that divisional rivalry, of course, in the ALDS between Detroit and Cleveland.
19:41Not a lot really there for the Yankees and the Royals, more so on New York.
19:47Casey is here, a young club that has been great this season, but it's for the Yankees.
19:52It's the storyline of can they finally match the optimism and the expectation
19:56that is always surrounding this Pinstripes club each and every year now with a golden opportunity.
20:02And as the oddsmakers would tell us, by far the most favorable path of any team to win a pennant and get to a World Series.
20:11Joe, you just said this point, and I think it's incredibly sound.
20:14There is a thought the Yankees are going to win the pennant.
20:18They are the short American League favorites at this moment.
20:21They have the best price now to win the World Series, moving in front of the Dodgers for the first time this year.
20:27There you see the pennant odds. It's plus 105.
20:29It was even money yesterday.
20:32I think there is a thought, though, Joe, that the team out of the National League will be so battle-tested through this gauntlet
20:38that they are probably going to be the favored side come a World Series matchup, either outright price, however that looks.
20:46Is that how you see it?
20:48Do you think the team that ends up winning the National League will be the World Series favorite and deservedly so?
20:55I believe if it's the Dodgers, they will likely be a small favorite if it's the Yankees.
21:02If it's the Padres, I do think the Yankees.
21:05Of course, it's the Yankees representing.
21:08I think the Yankees will be the favorite against the Padres.
21:10I think the Dodgers will get the nod against the Yankees,
21:14and a lot of that's going to have to do with the fact that the public in all likelihood probably remembers
21:19when the Dodgers went to Yankee Stadium and beat the snot out of them.
21:22So, you know, I do think the Yankees against anybody else other than the Dodgers is the favorite.
21:30Yeah, I would agree probably from the public perception of it all.
21:33I think the reason the Dodgers have moved off that favorite price is because of the matchup against San Diego.
21:39The Padres have been the best team in baseball since the All-Star break.
21:43The Dodgers actually better by a half a game in favor of San Diego or in front of San Diego
21:49since the beginning of August, the best American League team since the start of August.
21:54That's the Detroit Tigers.
21:56And not only will we have the divisional rivalries in three of the four DSs,
22:00we will also have the conversations between wildcard teams and the teams that earn the opening round by.
22:07Can the Mets stay hot?
22:09Can the Tigers stay hot?
22:11Joe, the last time Detroit and Cleveland faced off a two-game short set to end out July,
22:17the Guardians won both.
22:20At that point, the Tigers were 52-57.
22:24Five games below 500.
22:25Almost indicative of what this second half and really the final two months of the season has been for Detroit
22:32because as I just mentioned, they are the best team in the American League
22:36since the end of that two-game set against Cleveland since the beginning of August.
22:4234-19 to end out the regular season.
22:44Of course, they won both here in the postseason.
22:48That now actually has the shortest series outright price.
22:52Some market movement on this Friday morning.
22:54The Guardians only minus 120 to win this set outright.
22:58The Dodgers now up to a minus 142 price against San Diego.
23:03We would expect some competitive baseball starting tomorrow with a quadruple header.
23:09Absolutely.
23:10I mean, you look at all these series, Ben,
23:12and the question is which one of them has the makings of an upset?
23:17Which one of those would you look at and say the dogs going to win outright?
23:21Is it the Padres?
23:23Is it the Mets?
23:24Is it the Tigers?
23:25I think the only one we're safe with is saying the Yankees in all likelihood are going to beat the Royals.
23:31Can we say that about anybody else?
23:33Any other favorites?
23:35Yeah, I don't really think so.
23:36Again, Casey here, as Joe mentioned, scoring three runs.
23:40The back end of the bullpen dominant.
23:42Frankly, all of the pitching staff for Matt Quartraro was incredibly good in that opening round set against the O's.
23:49First game up tomorrow, Guardians-Tigers.
23:51Phillies-Mets.
23:52Yankees-Royals.
23:53Dodgers-Padres to end it in that order.