Perekonomian Indonesia sampai saat ini masih terbilang boros dan tidak efisien, akibat tingginya biaya investasi di dalam negeri. Ini terlihat dari angka Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) yang cukup tinggi bahkan di atas target pertumbuhan ekonomi.
Pada 2023 lalu, ICOR Indonesia berada di angkat 6,33%, sementara pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya 5,04%
Wakil Menteri Investasi/Wakil Kepala BKPM Yuliot Tanjung mengakui, posisi ICOR tahun ini memang masih cukup tinggi yakni di level 6,2%. Untuk itu, Yuliot membeberkan beberapa upaya yang akan dilakukan untuk meningkatkan ICOR ke depannya.
Misalnya dengan melakukan efisiensi untuk pembiayaan logistik, dan penyediaan infrastruktur investasi terintegrasi termasuk jalan dan Pelabuhan.
Kemudian, membentuk rantai pasok dalam satu ekosistem investasi dan menciptakan ketersediaan tenaga kerja yang memiliki skills dan kompetensi. “Perbaikan ini memerlukan waktu dan mudah-mudahan ke depan bisa diturunkan,” imbuhnya.
Pada 2023 lalu, ICOR Indonesia berada di angkat 6,33%, sementara pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya 5,04%
Wakil Menteri Investasi/Wakil Kepala BKPM Yuliot Tanjung mengakui, posisi ICOR tahun ini memang masih cukup tinggi yakni di level 6,2%. Untuk itu, Yuliot membeberkan beberapa upaya yang akan dilakukan untuk meningkatkan ICOR ke depannya.
Misalnya dengan melakukan efisiensi untuk pembiayaan logistik, dan penyediaan infrastruktur investasi terintegrasi termasuk jalan dan Pelabuhan.
Kemudian, membentuk rantai pasok dalam satu ekosistem investasi dan menciptakan ketersediaan tenaga kerja yang memiliki skills dan kompetensi. “Perbaikan ini memerlukan waktu dan mudah-mudahan ke depan bisa diturunkan,” imbuhnya.
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TVTranscript
00:00Indonesia's capital output ratio is still relatively high, and the economic growth has not been able to increase from 5 percent.
00:07Therefore, the government will take a number of steps to reduce the future investment costs.
00:13Some people say that Indonesia's capital output ratio is still relatively high, and the economic growth has not been able to increase from 5 percent.
00:24Therefore, the government will take a number of steps to reduce the future investment costs.
00:30Indonesia's capital output ratio is still relatively high, and the economic growth has not been able to increase from 5 percent.
00:46ICOR is one of the parameters that can show the level of investment efficiency in a country.
00:52The smaller the number of ICOR in a country, the more efficient the investment costs must be spent to produce a certain output.
00:59The Central Government Statistics reported that Indonesia's ICOR in 2023 was 6.33 percent, while Indonesia's economy was only 5.04 percent.
01:09Indonesia's General Chairman of the Indonesian Entrepreneurs Association, Sinta Kamdadi, said that Indonesia's ICOR was not competitive with countries in the ASEAN region, with the average ICOR of 4 to 5 percent.
01:19Sinta said that a high ICOR will hamper incoming investment and will have a negative impact on Indonesia's economic growth.
01:26Minister of Investment, Yuliot Tanjung, admitted that this year's ICOR position is still quite high, at 6.2 percent.
01:34Therefore, Yuliot outlined several efforts to increase Indonesia's ICOR in the future.
01:41For example, by making efficient logistics financing and providing integrated investment infrastructure, including roads and ports.
01:48The government is also trying to form a passive network in one investment ecosystem and create a workforce that has skills and competence.
01:57In this effort, it is hoped that Indonesia's ICOR figure can be reduced.
02:10High investment costs and economic growth burden.
02:13We have been connected through Zoom with Mr. Amad Heri Firdaus, Researcher at the Indepth Trade and Investment Center.
02:20Good morning, Mr. Heri.
02:21Good morning, Mr. Pras.
02:23Good morning, Mr. Pras.
02:25Thank you for your time.
02:28The first review is about the realization of investment in Indonesia.
02:31As we know, it has been said several times that it has reached the target, even beyond the target of President Jokowi.
02:36What do you think about this?
02:42If we look at the realization of investment recorded in the BKPM, we don't have to worry.
02:49In the second quarter, it increased by more than 20 percent.
02:55This shows that the realization of investment in certain sectors,
03:02which in this case was recorded by the BKPM through the BKPM,
03:07is already according to the target, even beyond the target.
03:12Targeted up to Rp 1,400 trillion.
03:15I think this will reach the target.
03:18But the question is, when there is a lot of investment,
03:25what is the output?
03:28Then what is the impact on economic growth?
03:32Actually, if we look at the value of current investment,
03:37it is the highest, even the highest record, reaching the record.
03:43But the impact or push for economic growth is not yet visible.
03:49That's why our IPOR is still relatively high compared to other countries.
03:57In other words, to create a product, more capital is needed in Indonesia
04:04compared to the same product created or produced in other countries.
04:09This is what makes it inefficient.
04:14So we have to be able to identify the factors that make the IPOR high,
04:24then how to reduce it so that our investment can be more efficient.
04:30Okay, but if we look at what you said,
04:33that the incoming investment has exceeded the target and set a record.
04:37But why can't it be a booster for economic growth?
04:41Where is the bottleneck?
04:43Is it the type of investment that is more capital-intensive compared to the labor-intensive one?
04:49Actually, investors are interested in investing anywhere,
04:55whether it's capital-intensive or labor-intensive.
04:58In this example, we can see that there are several industries
05:02that also absorb quite a lot of labor.
05:07Such as investment in smelters, basic industrial.
05:10This is a large investment value, but there is also a lot of labor involved.
05:16This is also a good thing.
05:20I think this needs to be developed into other potential areas like that.
05:26But with a better strategy in all aspects.
05:32Why is our investment so big?
05:37Even if we look at it from the PDB component,
05:40our capital investment or our investment in PDB has reached 30%, more or less.
05:47Even several times above 30%.
05:50After our household consumption contributed 55% to PDB,
05:57then the second is the investment.
06:00Capital investment is still gross.
06:02Overall investment.
06:03This is the role of PDB, about 30%.
06:07In ASEAN, we are the only ones who contribute the largest investment to PDB.
06:13So if you look at the value of investment,
06:17then the role of PDB,
06:20the value of our investment is no longer in doubt.
06:23But the question is, how can this large investment
06:27drive economic growth,
06:29so that our economic growth can be assured?
06:33Because we want to have the goals of Indonesia Gold 2045.
06:37It means that it must be identified.
06:40Why is our investment less impactful
06:44to drive even greater economic growth?
06:47Even our economic growth is stuck at around 5%.
06:52But in fact, the investment is increasing.
06:55So there is something wrong here.
06:59There is something that needs to be improved
07:01related to the ICOR,
07:03the value of investment.
07:05Then also how to create a product
07:09with the required capital as minimal as possible.
07:13It can be optimal or as efficient as possible.
07:18So in the future, investors will certainly look for
07:22a country that can provide things like that.
07:26Because if we look at it,
07:28BKPM has done its job well.
07:31Looking for investors,
07:33then attracting investment until earlier,
07:37Rp 1,400 trillion was even targeted.
07:39I think it will succeed.
07:41But what about other sectors?
07:44What about other ministries and institutions?
07:46In providing infrastructure in areas
07:49that are targeted for investment.
07:51Then what about the readiness of the SDM in the area?
07:54Then what else?
07:57For example, what about the energy?
08:00All of that requires cross-sector effort.
08:03It requires support from the cross-sector.
08:06Okay, but if we look at the components
08:08or parameters of ICOR Indonesia,
08:10which is still at 6%,
08:12because we know 2023 6.33%,
08:152022 6.02%,
08:17even in 2021 it is quite high, 8.66%.
08:20What parameters are used?
08:22Do you see how it is with other peer countries
08:26that we can compare with Indonesia?
08:29Yes, the factors that affect ICOR are many.
08:33Starting from the financial side,
08:36we see that there is a relatively high interest rate
08:41compared to other countries.
08:43This also contributes to our high ICOR.
08:46So this ICOR also reflects our competitive investment.
08:50If the ICOR is high, it is less competitive.
08:54The factors are not all in the domain of the Ministry of Investment
09:01or BKPM.
09:03For example, how can the banking side support?
09:07Yesterday, the BI rate was lowered.
09:10Then what about the response of the banks?
09:13Is it still the same or what?
09:16There must be support.
09:19So the investment that has entered a lot
09:22does not generate an optimal output
09:26because of the previous factors.
09:28For example, lack of SDM,
09:31expensive energy,
09:33the infrastructure is still not optimal, etc.
09:37Then from the financing side, the interest rate is still high.
09:40So there are many other factors that cause our ICOR to be high.
09:45But can it go down?
09:47The effort has been made,
09:49even though we know that there are some fundamental obstacles
09:52related to SDM.
09:54Then there are other things with policies
09:57for investment, energy, etc.
10:00There is still a lot of work that has not been completed.
10:03Yes, I think this must be done immediately
10:06if we want to jump to gold in Indonesia.
10:11Where our growth average is minimal
10:14from 2025 to 2045,
10:16the average must be 6%.
10:18So that we can get there.
10:20Even the elected president targets 8%.
10:24So we can get there again.
10:26We reach a developed country.
10:28But we don't have to think too much about 8% first.
10:32How to reach 6%?
10:34This is what we have to focus on
10:41from all components of PDB.
10:44Because PDB is not just an investment.
10:47Not just an investment,
10:49but there is also consumption that must be maintained.
10:52Then there is export that must continue to be increased.
10:55Then there is government spending
10:57that must be able to have a multiplier effect
11:00on economic activities, etc.
11:03So all components of PDB must be increased.
11:10So that our economy can reach 6% first.
11:15Okay, what is interesting, we will review
11:18investment climate,
11:20investment ecosystem,
11:22and infrastructure of investment supporters
11:24so that our ICOR can go down.
11:26We will discuss in the next segment.
11:28We will be back in a moment.
11:39ICOR Indonesia
11:49You are still watching Market Review.
11:51In the next segment, we will provide you with some data
11:54on the trend of ICOR Indonesia
11:56if we compare it to our economic growth.
11:59You can see the complete data on your TV screen.
12:03We can see from 2017 to 2023.
12:06This is the movement for ICOR Indonesia.
12:10It was minus 15% in 2020.
12:14This happened during the COVID-19 pandemic.
12:16Then it rose 8.66% in 2021.
12:22And in 2022, it became 6.02%.
12:256.33% in 2023.
12:27Meanwhile, in terms of economic growth,
12:30it rose 3.7% in 2021.
12:35Then it remained at 5% in the last two years,
12:39in 2022 and 2023.
12:41Next, let's compare the ICOR of ASEAN countries.
12:45The Philippines is 3.7%.
12:48Vietnam is 4.6%.
12:51Thailand is 4.4%.
12:54Malaysia is 4.5%.
12:57Next is the realization of investment in Indonesia.
13:01Let's take a look.
13:03Okay, that's it.
13:04In 2024, the projection was around Rp678.8 trillion.
13:09In 2023, it was over Rp1.4 trillion.
13:13Okay, we will continue our discussion
13:15with Mr. Ahmad Herifirdaus,
13:17Director of the Indefinite Trade and Investment Center.
13:20Mr. Herifirdaus, let's compare the ASEAN countries.
13:24It was around 4%.
13:26We are still above 6%.
13:28Yes, we were still less competitive.
13:33Which is actually seen from the level of the flower tribe.
13:37Then also from the energy cost,
13:40and also the logistical cost, which is still high.
13:43This also causes our ICOR to be high.
13:46So in my opinion, there needs to be a reduction.
13:50The ICOR was raised.
13:52What are the factors?
13:54For example, high logistical costs,
13:56what should the solution be?
13:58Should we build roads or something?
14:01This also has to be done consistently.
14:05This can also reduce the ICOR value,
14:10which is still quite high.
14:13Okay, is this also a signal of inefficiency
14:15if we look at our investment world?
14:18Even though the investment continues to increase,
14:20how about the ecosystem,
14:22then the climate of investment,
14:24and also the supporting infrastructure?
14:27Yes, if we look at the investment ecosystem,
14:30the government has actually tried to lay down
14:35the investment ecosystem,
14:37then how to strengthen the ecosystem
14:43so that all aspects of this investment ecosystem
14:46can support each other.
14:48Such as infrastructure development,
14:51then also licensing simplification, incentives, and so on.
14:56This also causes a better investment pull.
15:01So there are factors that are not yet handled there.
15:09For example, how to coordinate or harmonize
15:13between the rules at the central level and the regional level.
15:17Then there is also the gap skill between regions.
15:22The gap between regions is still quite high,
15:25so it is also a consideration for investors
15:28to build their investment in an area.
15:34So in my opinion, to create a more competitive ICOR,
15:38then the investment that pushes the economic growth higher,
15:43this requires cooperation.
15:45So not only the value of the investment is continuously upgraded,
15:50but also so that the value of this investment
15:53can produce an optimal output.
15:57It means that in terms of industry,
16:00for example, the utilization is optimized,
16:03the capacity is optimized.
16:07So this is what needs to be done.
16:10Of course, there are many things that need to be done.
16:15The hope is that the investor increases the investment
16:18or he invests and adds one input.
16:21The hope is that it can produce one output,
16:24not less than one output.
16:26If it's less than one output, it means it's not optimal.
16:29Or even more than one output.
16:31So there is an increasing return to scale.
16:35This is what needs to be done.
16:37Of course, there are factors.
16:39There is energy, support, and so on.
16:43Mas Yary, do you see this as an inefficiency signal?
16:49Yes, that's right.
16:50If you look at the high ICOR,
16:53it can be said that we are inefficient.
16:56If the ICOR is high, it means that to produce one item,
17:01more capital is needed.
17:04For example, Indonesia and Vietnam create one item,
17:08for example, a phone.
17:10In Vietnam, the cost can be lower,
17:13so that the output price can be more competitive in the export market.
17:18This is what we should compete with.
17:21So how to make the investment more efficient
17:26by reducing the ICOR.
17:29How long has Indef seen various efforts
17:32that have been carried out by the government,
17:34both from our logistics side,
17:36as well as logistics,
17:38how is the efficiency in the port sector,
17:41dueling time,
17:43then the infrastructure that continues to be built for the industry sector.
17:47So where is the bottleneck?
17:53Actually, there have been efforts,
17:55but it's still not enough.
17:57Because all of this is needed,
17:59starting from competitiveness in the workforce.
18:03This is an indication of how productive they are.
18:07In addition to the increase in revenue,
18:09the increase in capacity or productivity must also be increased.
18:14This is what must continue to be pushed.
18:17So the productivity of the workforce must continue to be increased
18:21for various skills, various skills.
18:25Then also the price of energy.
18:28The price of energy in Indonesia is still relatively expensive
18:31compared to other countries.
18:33For example, like gas and so on.
18:36Then there may also be infrastructure that is not yet well connected.
18:41Although there are many infrastructure developments,
18:43but we have to find out
18:45what the infrastructure needed by the investor is like.
18:49What is the infrastructure needed by this industry?
18:53Then also the connectivity.
18:56This is what also contributes to the logistics cost.
18:59Why is our logistics cost high?
19:01Maybe it's still too far from the port
19:05and industrial areas.
19:08Or what should the development of the future industry be like?
19:11Should it be near the port or near the market?
19:15This also affects the logistics cost in the water.
19:19Yes, what about the PPR?
19:21Will it be the focus of the next government?
19:24Remember, we should build a strong policy.
19:27It turns out that this inefficiency
19:30will be a stumbling block
19:32if we try to reach the government's target of 7-8%.
19:36Yes, I think it should be done.
19:40How can we reduce ICOR,
19:43increase the efficiency of investment
19:46so that the investment can have more impact
19:50on economic growth.
19:54Investments must produce more than one output.
19:59That means we can be more competitive.
20:01Of course, the factors that we discussed earlier
20:04must be improved immediately.
20:06But the improvement must be done quickly.
20:09A program that can really have an impact
20:12on the improvement of existing aspects.
20:15Then also how the factors that cause ICOR
20:20can be better and more competitive.
20:23How optimistic do you see the potential for ICOR improvement?
20:28Then the efficiency of all sectors
20:31that can support our investment?
20:33Yes, it depends on how the new government line
20:38and what programs become a priority.
20:42I think the coming government
20:46already knows the current problems and challenges.
20:49It should be easier to develop a strategy
20:54that is faster.
20:56Yes, that's it.
20:57There needs to be a new formula,
20:59then integration again between stakeholders.
21:01The importance is to be able to overcome
21:03climate, ecosystem, and infrastructure.
21:06Like investment in Indonesia
21:08so that ICOR improves
21:10and can have an impact on the national economic growth wheel.
21:14With Terry Firdaus, thank you very much
21:16for sharing the information and analysis
21:19that you have conveyed to the audience today.
21:22Congratulations on your activities again.
21:24Good health, Mr. Dery.
21:25See you again.
21:29The audience has been with you for an hour
21:31in the market review
21:32and keep sharing your information only on IDX channel,
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21:38Don't forget to watch the program.
21:40First Session Closing will air at 11.30 p.m.
21:42WEST INDONESIA time.
21:43Because the future must be in front of me,
21:46the stock investor.
21:47I am Prasetyo Wibowo
21:49and all the staff members.
21:51Goodbye.
21:53See you.
22:14IDX Channel
22:17WEST INDONESIA time.
22:19Because the future must be in front of me,
22:22the stock investor.
22:24I am Prasetyo Wibowo
22:26and all the staff members.
22:28Goodbye.
22:30See you.