Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
đ
NewsTranscript
00:00Well to discuss now, let's bring in Dr. Anna Kiva, lecturer in political science at the University of the West of Scotland.
00:07Thank you so much for joining us on the program.
00:10Let's begin with Prime Minister Michel Barnier who faces a monumental task now.
00:15The first of many hurdles for him in the near future may be to survive a potential vote of no confidence.
00:21What are your thoughts on whether this government can survive?
00:24So there can be a different outcome for this government, obviously as we've seen already both the National Rally and the New Popular Front are angered by the decisions taken by Michel Barnier
00:39because the government composes primarily of mainstream right and centre-right politicians and therefore of course we've seen that National Rally has already said that the government has no future
00:53and this has already turned to macronism.
00:57So in order for anybody, either the New Popular Front or the National Rally, they'll have enough deputies to initiate the vote of no confidence, which requires only 58 deputies.
01:13But in order for the vote of no confidence to pass, it needs to be an absolute majority of deputies in the National Assembly, which is 289.
01:22So if either of the blocs initiate the vote of no confidence, they will need to rely on the other bloc to support and in order for that vote of no confidence to pass,
01:35which will unlikely be supported obviously from a centrist and mainstream right politicians.
01:41So yeah, the vote of no confidence is possible and the socialist leader Olivier Faure already said that they are going to try to do that.
01:52But one way is to initiate it, but another way you need to have the overall majority for the vote of no confidence to pass.
02:01So there might be a requirement to have this alliance between the National Rally and the New Popular Front.
02:09They might need to join their forces if they want to see this government overturned basically.
02:16So the left has been fractured with disagreements and they've been, you know, unable to build on their electoral gains from those July elections.
02:23And now they've been cast aside essentially with this new cabinet. So where do they go from here?
02:30So the composition of the new government absolutely doesn't reflect the outcome of the 2024 parliamentary snap election.
02:37And we've seen the leftist coalition coming together, putting forward a united alliance for the election, for the two rounds,
02:47and then putting together a name after, of course, certain negotiations of Lucie Castel for the prime minister, which was rejected by the president Macron.
02:57So now they have, in my view, they have to stick together if they want to survive in the future electoral cycle.
03:07And well, it's likely that this is going to happen because none of the parties that form part of the Nouveau Front Populaire,
03:16they are happy with what's been happening. They've been calling for the French people to take the streets and to protest peacefully against Macron's decision.
03:27So, yeah, the left wing coalition is essentially like any other party now, especially, you know, those who didn't make it to the government are in the campaign mode.
03:37So they will try to capitalise on this denial of democracy for the future electoral cycle.
03:43They will try to incite, you know, peaceful protests in France.
03:49And we've seen some of them already taking place. So, yeah, they are likely to stick together in order to fight this denial of democracy,
03:59because essentially we've not seen any turnover or any alternation in power.
04:05What's President Emmanuel Macron's remaining time in office going to look like, in your opinion?
04:12So for Emmanuel Macron, it's going to be tricky. On the one hand, you know, he has chosen Michel Garnier as the prime minister
04:20because he needs somebody who is going to pursue very similar policies to his,
04:24in order, you know, for the government and the president to cohabitate properly.
04:29So, I mean, he cannot run again because it will be, you know, the third time he's running for the presidency.
04:37So I think it's just going to be very difficult for the new government to pass legislation.
04:44And Macron's popularity is already, you know, massively down in France.
04:49So I think by having, you know, a prime minister, he's also trying to kind of shift the responsibilities that, you know, he has
04:58and maybe like detract some of the attention from his own persona to the persona of Michel Garnier
05:05as the new prime minister, because he has to deal with a lot of policies, a lot of internal politics within the country as the new prime minister.
05:16So he's trying to kind of shift, maybe not the responsibility, but definitely the attention to the new prime minister.
05:22But yeah, he has nothing to lose in a way that he's not going to be able to run as the president for presidency next time.
05:32But his party has already come out weakened from this parliamentary election.
05:37So his party relies very much on working with mainstream right Les RĂ©publicains,
05:43who are very keen, you know, to kind of build up their electoral profile,
05:49because currently they're the fourth largest party in the National Assembly.
05:53So by actually naming Les Républicains Bruno Retaillé as the minister of the interior,
06:01they're basically, you know, giving keys to the, you know, making Les RĂ©publicains,
06:10you know, kind of try to gain the votes in the future election,
06:13because the current minister of the interior, Bruno Retaillé,
06:18he is very hardline on immigration, on secularism, on identity,
06:22and they're going to try to cater to national rally voters.
06:25So it's a no-win situation for Macron, from my point of view,
06:29neither for him nor for his party, because as I said,
06:33they very much rely on the mainstream right Les RĂ©publicains,
06:37and they are going to try to use that as, you know, an opportunity to campaign, basically,
06:43for future parliamentary election that, in my view,
06:46is likely to take place within the next, you know, 10 months, just after a year.
06:51Yeah, we'll have to see.
06:53Well, Dr Anna McKeever from the University of the West of Scotland,
06:55thank you so much for your time and for your very interesting analysis.