- #Nifty, #Sensex off record highs as #BajajFinance, #HUL weigh
- Rice stocks in focus
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Mihika Barve on 'Ask Profit'.
- Rice stocks in focus
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Mihika Barve on 'Ask Profit'.
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TVTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome back to NDTV Profit. I am Meeka Bhairavi and you are watching Ask Profit,
00:13a show where we get all your stock related queries answered from our fundamental and
00:17technical guests. You can send your queries on the numbers that are flashing below your
00:21screen. But before we get on to your queries, let's just take a quick look at how markets
00:25are faring right now. Well, we have the Nifty 50, which is trading fairly flat with a positive
00:29bias on the benchmark. When you talk about the counters that are gaining in today's day of trade,
00:34well, we have strength in stocks like NTPC, Ayesha Motors and M&M, all up 1.2% in trade today.
00:42The stocks that aren't doing so well, well, we have the Bajaj Finance and Bajaj FinServ counters
00:46that are under pressure, down about 3% in trade today and some weakness in counters like Hindustan
00:52Unilever as well as SBI Life. When you look at the broader markets, well, we do have the Nifty
00:57Mid Cap 150, which is the clear out performer today. It's up to almost two tenths of a percent
01:03right now. We have some counters that are gaining on this index. We have Dixon Technology up almost
01:096% right now. Strength in counters like BSE, Thermax, as well as Macrotech Developers.
01:16Macrotech Developers is up on back of a brokerage note. The counters that aren't doing so well on
01:21the Nifty Mid Cap, well, you have LIC Housing, which is under pressure today. It's down about 6%,
01:27as well as Kalyan Jewelers and Imami Singh cuts of 4% to 5%. When you look at the sectoral indices,
01:33well, you'll get that on the screen if you could get the sectoral indices right there. We have
01:38the Nifty Metal and the Nifty Energy counters that are doing well and are the top sectoral
01:43gainers in today. The sectors that aren't showing that much strength is the Nifty FMCG and the Nifty
01:50Oil and Gas. But a sector that we are going to focus today are the rice companies. Now,
01:54this is on the back of the government scrapping the minimum export price of Basmati. And we have
01:59Mahima actually joining us. Mahima, what is causing the buzz and could you give us more
02:03details on how the counters have been performing as well? Absolutely, Megha. So, as you rightly
02:07mentioned, government has scrapped the minimum export price of Basmati, which was set at $950.
02:12Now, in October, this MEP was reduced from $1,200 to $950. Now, the scrapping of this MEP
02:19will actually help stabilize the price of Basmati rice, which was falling continuously
02:24due to fewer global orders. Now, price of Basmati at wholesale level is expected to increase from
02:2955 to 65 over a shorter period of time and it will stabilize at that 65 per kg, Rs. 65 per kg.
02:36Now, this could possibly benefit stocks like LT Foods, KRBL, Chamanlal Setia Exports,
02:42as well as GRM Overseas. Now, as you can see, both LT Foods, KRBL, as well as Chamanlal Setia
02:49have been buzzing today on the back of this. Now, India is the world's top rice shipper and
02:54India has been limiting sales on key rice varieties and because of this scrapping of MEP,
03:02the export of key varieties of rice will happen more often. In terms of LT Foods, LT Foods has
03:08reported a sales growth of roughly 17% in the rice segment. The company is optimistic about
03:14achieving double-digit growth in its international markets and it plans to invest roughly Rs. 200
03:18crores as CAPEX in FY25. Now, KRBL is another stock in focus. It's a key player in Basmati
03:25rice exports and it has underscored the importance of markets such as Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia
03:30and it will now focus on these markets going forward. It has maintained a steady 6% market
03:34share in the US. However, it did witness a 30% decline in its exports in FY24 and this could
03:40possibly boost their exports overall. The third stock in focus is Chamanlal Setia exports where
03:45exports contribute around 89% of the total revenues and Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa
03:51contribute around 84% of their total revenues overall. So, Mihika, these are some of the
03:56stocks that are buzzing on the back of government scrapping the MEP for Basmati rice exports.
04:01Thank you so much, Mahima, for giving us those details. And we will take the sector up first.
04:04We have joining us today here on Ask Profit is Ashish Maheshwari, who is the Director at
04:09Aryan Capital Markets and Rajesh Balvia, who is the SVP on Technical and Directive Research
04:15Access Securities. Ashish, I'll come first to you. What is your views on the rice sector as
04:22an entire pack and any stocks that stand out? Yes, I think this was a long demand of rice
04:31for increasing this gap on Basmati rice export price. And because of this, the prices are quite
04:40contained in Indian markets also. But now as government focuses towards increasing the
04:46income of farmers and now Haryana elections are also around the corner, so all such moves are
04:52expected. But nevertheless, as far as companies are concerned, I think companies like BRM Overseas,
04:58KRBL, Coinood Food, LTPFood, which are dominant players in Basmati rice, they tend to gain because
05:04their major focus is only on the exports market. So in my view, like how we have seen sugar sector
05:13got short in the last few months, same thing is going to happen in rice. Limited players are there,
05:21but I think those players will keep on doing good, like KRBL, BRM Overseas, Coinood and LTPFood.
05:29Thank you so much, Ashish, for giving us your outlook. Let's now move on to your viewer
05:33queries. And the first query that we do have is from Sudhir from Bengaluru. Now,
05:38Sudhir bought 300 Tata Steel shares at a price of 168 and he is asking whether he should hold
05:46this position. Rajesh, I'll come up first to you. How does Tata Steel look on the charts
05:51and what's your view on the query? So stock is in consolidation since last couple of days,
05:59though stock has slipped below to its near-term, short-term moving averages. So there is a
06:05weakness on the near-term structure. Looking at the near-term structure, 148 is the immediate
06:12support area for the stock. On the higher side, the major supply zone, which is placed at around
06:17160 level. So until the stock manages to cross above 160, it may remain in the range only. 145
06:24to 160 would be the range for some more time. If it manages to break out above 160, then the
06:30possibility of moving up towards 175 to 180 would be there, but it may take time. So if he wants to
06:37stay for some more months, then he can hold on. Otherwise, in pullback towards 160, he may exit
06:43the position. Exit the position at 160, but can hold on for a longer term. The next query that we
06:48have is from Vamsi Dharush from Vishakhapatnam. Now he is holding ITC shares, 325 in quantity,
06:54at an average price of Rs. 329. And he is thinking of selling all of his quantity and he wanted some
07:01advice on the same. Ashish, I'll come to you. Fundamentally, do you think ITC has more upside
07:06triggers? Hello, Ashish. Rajesh, you know what, I'll come up to you first. Vamsi Dharush is looking
07:21to sell his entire position in ITC, a quantity of 325 shares, and he's asking whether he should sell
07:29the entire quantity. So in the last couple of weeks, we have seen FMCG Basket have done well
07:36and most of the FMCG stocks have moved up. If we analyze the structure for ITC, it's almost
07:43trading near to its all-time high trajectory. And across all time frame, we are seeing the strength
07:49on the stock charts. So I think there could be some consolidation, but on a longer term, I think
07:57there is a possibility that the stock may move further higher towards 560 to 580 kind of zone.
08:03So I would suggest to hold on the position in ITC at this juncture. Even if he wants to exit
08:10in ITC, I think he should follow some trailing stop loss to protect the profit. And trailing
08:15stop loss would be around 495. So till the stock is not breaking below 495, there is a possibility
08:22of 540 to 560 kind of target over a period of time. Got it. 540 to 550 kind of target over a period of
08:29time. We seem to have some technical issues, Ashish. So Rajesh, I'll come to you with the
08:34next query as well. Now, this is from Chandra and he's holding a bazaar-style retail at a purchase
08:40price of Rs.419 per share at a quantity of 50 and his profits right now stand at Rs.1.23 lakhs.
08:46And he is asking whether he should wait or sell his position.
08:52So I guess this is the new listed stock. So I have very limited data set up for the stock.
09:00But whatever data I have, I think looking at the structure, the stock is continuously
09:08facing the supply pressure post listing. And we believe that looking at the supply pressure,
09:14maybe we could see further more down prices in the stock. On the higher side, I think
09:22Rs.365-370 is the major supply zone until the stock not crosses above those levels. I think
09:28the stock may correct further and possibly it may go down towards Rs.330-320 kind of level also.
09:33But I have very limited data set up. So I think based on the technical taking decision at this
09:39price would be a little different. But yes, trend is still looking weak on the near-term structure.
09:48Ashish, I'll come back to you with the same question. We have Bazaar's style. Chandra is
09:53asking whether he should hold or sell his entire position. What are your views on the same?
10:01This stock post listing, it has given very negative returns. And in this buoyant IPO market
10:08where companies are giving so good returns, performance of this stock is quite painful
10:17because anyway allotment doesn't come. And if you get allotments, etc. and you see such
10:22performance, then there's always an issue. So in my view, the stock was slightly overpriced. And
10:27this retail, the chain business, particularly market is not having still that much comfort.
10:32And this issue came ahead of good demand also. So there's not too much demand was there in IPO.
10:42We have seen sale-off coming in the stock. In my view, you should exit from the stock and
10:48instead keep on investing in new IPOs, which can give you much better return.
10:52I'm not too convinced on Bazaar style retail. Got it. Just a small correction,
10:56Chandra is actually making a loss on his position right now. That's just a correction. But we now
11:03move on to a stock that we've gotten many queries on today. And I'm going to be taking the query
11:08from Ajit Malapuram, who's from Kerala. And this is about Bajaj Housing Finance. Now he's holding
11:13350 shares in the IPO, 214 numbers and balances at 156. Now he wishes to add more, but he's asking
11:23if it's worth, is it worth to wait more time to buy at a bottom level around 125 to 140? And is
11:30there any chance of the stock correcting? Ashish, I'll come to you first. We have a lot of queries
11:36flowing in about whether it's the right time to buy Bajaj Housing Finance today. Should people
11:41hold their position? What are your views on this counter? My view will be to remain invested.
11:48I think in Bajaj Group stocks, we have seen exponential growth coming in whether Bajaj
11:55Finance, FinCEN and all these stocks have really rewarded investors very well. And housing finance
12:02is a sector where this particular company can show exponential growth because of lower base. So my
12:08suggestion will be, though stock is expensive, this is almost at 8 times market price to book value,
12:13but still Bajaj is Bajaj and in my view, remain invested. At least have one year time frame
12:19in your mind, you will have 250 plus target. The next query we actually have is from Naveen
12:28in Bangalore and this is regarding Jio Finance and he has 100 shares at a price of Rs.325. Now,
12:36he had taken a long-term position on this counter, but he's wondering if he should hold or exit his
12:44position in Jio Finance. Rajesh, I'll come to you. How does the counter look on the charts?
12:50So we have seen a very strong rally in the stock. But since last couple of months,
12:56stock is showing some bit of corrective move. But in this correction also,
13:00stock is holding the ground on the long-term chart. If we draw a trend line on the monthly chart,
13:06upsloping trendline support is still intact for the stock. So we believe that on the long-term,
13:12yes, stock may deliver a good amount of return. So he may hold on the position and possibly on
13:17the downside, if you wish to keep some stop-loss, I think stop-loss, I would suggest around 295
13:25and if it's not breaks below 295, I think there is a possibility once the stock crosses above
13:29375, there is a possible target of 460 to 480, we could see in coming months. So
13:37from my side, yes, Jio Finance can be hold for long-term perspective.
13:42Got it, Rajesh. The next query we have is from Swetha from Kolkata. Now, she's holding 110
13:47shares of Hindustan Motors at Rs. 33.28. And she's asking where from a long-term perspective,
13:55should she maybe add more depending on the outlook? Ashish, I'll come to you.
14:00What's your view on Hindustan Motors? As the fundamentals are concerned,
14:05this is a 600 crore market cap company now and with zero sales. So it's more their land sale
14:13related story, etc. and more trading play instead of more fundamental play. So if you want to remain
14:18in this sector, I think Rs. 100 if you get Ola Electric, that will be better. But Hindustan
14:23Motors is an exit in mind. Got it, Ashish. The next query we have
14:30is about IRFC. Now, the viewer is holding 2116 shares of IRFC at a price of Rs. 220.36,
14:38but it's gone down ever since and that's his worry. So he's asking for his outlook
14:42for the next two to five years. Ashish, I'll come up first to you. What's the fundamental
14:46outlook looking like for IRFC? This is again a question most of the retail people are
14:54wondering or asking again and again because these railway stocks or PSU stocks,
14:59people are slightly badly stuck up at heights or they were not able to book gains. So in my view,
15:06you don't have a choice but to remain invested for some more time. Those stock has appreciated
15:11from 65 to almost 125. But now we are witnessing a lot of savings because retail investors are
15:18losing patience when they see the stock doesn't move. And institutional buying is not happening
15:24nowadays in mostly this PSU and railway stock because the valuations are quite stressed
15:31compared to other NBFC player or gold on there, etc. So in my view, keep a stop loss of at least
15:38150 and remain invested and have a target of 181 to 185 for exit. Don't expect this stock
15:48will be 225 or so in short term. Now the most positive outlook from Ashish.
15:53Rajesh, what are your views? Do they mirror Ashish's or do you have a different outlook?
15:59So IRFC is in correction mode. If we analyze on a daily, weekly timeframe,
16:03stock is moving in down sloping channel on the daily chart that suggests that some
16:10sustained supply pressure is there in the stock prices. Even on the monthly chart also,
16:14stock has broken its up sloping trend line support area. So I think in near term to short
16:21term perspective, some pain would be there in the stock prices. But for the long term,
16:25if it comes around 150-145 kind of zone, it's attractive level again to re-intern with the
16:31stock. I think stock may attempt to take support around 150-145 zone. And if that happens,
16:37so some pullback action would come. And in the pullback, 175 to 180 is the supply zone if it
16:42crosses. I think stock has potential to again regain to its all time high trajectory. But it's
16:48a positional bet not on the day to day trading activity. I think buy and accumulate in the
16:52decline would be the right strategy for IRFC. Thank you so much, Rajesh. The next query we
16:57have is from Sagar Palnati. And this is about Kalyan Jewellers and he is asking whether he
17:02should hold or sell his position. He purchased the share at Rs. 631.5 and he is holding 2012
17:09shares and currently has a profit of Rs. 1.2 lakhs. Ashish, I'll come first to you. Fundamental
17:15view for Kalyan Jewellers? Fundamentally, company is doing very well. And in my view,
17:22all gold stocks will continue to outperform. Today, there's some correction. But in my view,
17:28this stock has potential to touch Rs. 1000 mark also in maybe next 6 to 9 months. Because again,
17:35the gold prices are almost at $2,600. The next thing is, as there's a festive season,
17:41wedding season is coming up. And the way Kalyan Jewellers expanded their reach across India,
17:48this is almost a proxy to now Titan. So this is the reason that Rs. 70,000 crore market cap also
17:54stopped to look good. And in my view, this will touch almost a Rs. 1 lakh crore company,
18:00maybe next year. Got it, Ashish. Let's move on to the next query. And this is
18:06from Sushila Bellari, who has shares of Avantel at a price of Rs. 113. And they have 543 shares
18:15and a profit of over Rs. 30 lakhs. And they're asking for the targets whether it should exit
18:19or hold position. Rajesh, I'll come to you. Any specific targets for this counter?
18:25I think since last couple of months, the stock is in correction mode. And looking at the structure
18:32for this Avantel, I think the trend is still on the weaker side. Rs. 160 should be the stop-loss
18:40if they are holding the position. If it breaks below Rs. 160, I think furthermore,
18:45supply pressure we could see in the stock prices and possibly it may go down further.
18:50On the higher side, Rs. 175, Rs. 178 are the major supply zone, which is placed at or almost
18:55coincide with the 20-day moving average. So I think until the stock is not breaking below Rs. 160,
19:01they may hold on the position. Got it, Rajesh. The next query we have
19:07is from Pawan from Bengaluru. And this is about BEML. Now, he has Rs. 160 shares at a price of
19:14Rs. 4,740. And he's asking for the outlook on whether you should hold or exit the position.
19:23Ashish, I'll come up to you first. Your views on BEML?
19:28This is again a stock from Rs. 5,500. We have seen continuous selling in this stock. And
19:35the June quarter, they reported loss also. So in my view, it's better to book loss and
19:42to issue some other stock. I'm not expecting that BEML will bounce back in the field.
19:49Okay. Got it. The next query is from Sujay from Kolkata. Now, he invested in IDFC Bank at Rs. 70
19:57a counter. And he's asking the view from a longer-term perspective. Ashish, I'll come to you.
20:04What's the view for the 3-5-year period for IDFC Bank?
20:10So again, IDFC Bank is a stock which is holding now near 52-week low. If you see from highs of
20:17Rs. 90, Rs. 90, Rs. 92, now the stock is almost at 73 and 52-week low was 70. It means that whatever
20:27growth-related issues were there in the bank, they are still continuing. And
20:34it is the time when frontline banks are not moving. It's very difficult for mid-size bank,
20:40IDFC or RBL, etc. to move. So my suggestion will be to exit from IDFC first bank. I'm not expecting
20:48that this has potential to become double or something in next 5 years. Challenging times
20:55for private sector bank. I think PSU banks will even still perform but not be second-run
21:01private sector banks. A sell call from Ashish. Rajesh, when I come to you,
21:05how does IDFC look on the charts though? So stock is in downtrend. Series of lower
21:11top, lower bottom formation is taking place in the stock on the daily chart,
21:15or as well as on the weekly chart. That clearly suggests that sustained supply pressure
21:20is there in the stock prices. And looking at the structure, I think if it breaks below 70 level,
21:26I think possible downside may continue further. And in this decline, maybe stock can slide further
21:32towards 65, even 60 kind of level also. So I think stock is in downtrend. So I think a minor
21:39pullback if it comes in the stock towards 80 kind of zone, I think one should exit because it's
21:45underperforming stock. And looking at the short-term, medium-term structure, we believe that
21:51underperformance is likely to be there in this stock. So I think around 80, he may exit from
21:56the position or follow the stop-loss of 70 rupees. If it breaks, maybe the stock can correct further.
22:02Got it, Rajesh. The next question we have is from Akhilesh Chaudhary from Bangalore,
22:11and he is asking about the outlook for Ola Electric as well as Vodafone Idea. Let's take
22:16up Ola Electric first. The stock is up 19% since its listing. Ashish, your view, I mean,
22:25it had a stellar listing, but it has seen some correction. What are your views on the counter?
22:33There's some correction from almost Rs.157. The stock is now almost at Rs.107.
22:39So profit booking is happening. And in my view, the stock is good. But the only thing is the
22:45timing of buying the stock should be also in sync. So my assertion will be to look at surely the
22:50stock below Rs.100. I'm expecting some more selling will continue in this stock because
22:55again, the investment is going towards more frontline stocks like Bajaj and EuroMotocorp,
23:00which are performing much better compared to Ola Electric. But below Rs.100, surely,
23:06I like to take a bet. Rajesh, I'll come to you on Vodafone Idea. The stock's not done so well
23:13year to date. How does the counter look on the charts?
23:18So it's a low ticket size stock and nothing happening in this stock. We have seen a
23:24significant cut in the stock in the last couple of days and the stock has broken its
23:30important support area of Rs.15 on the weekly chart. Now the stock has slipped below to its
23:36100 day moving average also. So weakness is there in the stock prices. And now stock is now trading
23:41near to its critical support area of Rs.12.75. That's the critical level based on the monthly
23:49chart. If it slips below to Rs.12.75, I think further more weakness towards Rs.12 or Rs.11.50
23:56we could see. On the higher side, Rs.15 is the challenging level on the higher side. So until
24:00stock not crosses above Rs.15, it may remain in the downtrend and Rs.12 to Rs.15 would be the
24:08range for some more time for the stock. Got it. A downtrend until this counter hits
24:14Rs.15. The next question we have is from Sunil Kumar and this is about whether one should buy
24:19Divis Laboratories at the current level. It's trading at around Rs.5,515 a counter. I'll come
24:25to you, Rajesh. Any specific targets for Divis Laboratories? Someone wants to enter the position?
24:31So definitely Divis can be a buy. Based on the technical, stock is now breaking out its
24:36multi-month swing high. Stock is now trading up to October 2021 swing high. So that clearly
24:44suggests that stock has recovered after the corrective move and stock has now managed to
24:50give multi-month breakout. So yes, based on technical, yes, definitely one should hold on
24:56the position. And we believe that if it continues to hold above Rs.5,400, Rs.5,350 kind of zone,
25:03the possible target on a short-term to medium-term perspective, we could see towards Rs.5,800 to
25:09Rs.6,000 also. So it's a positional bet based on this long-term breakout.
25:15Stop-loss should be placed at around Rs.5,350. Upside target is Rs.5,800 to Rs.6,000.
25:20Got it, Rajesh. The next square we have is from Neelamani Devedi from Raipur.
25:25And she is holding the IRB Infra stock at a purchase price of Rs.65. And the number of
25:31shares she is holding is Rs.1,300. And currently she is facing a loss of Rs.5,400 apiece. But she
25:37is asking about the one-year view. Ashish, what are your initial views on IRB Infra? Do you think
25:43there's more upside fundamentally? I think after this correction of Rs.15-16,
25:51stock is looking attractive. But the only thing is that from March to June,
25:54we saw a significant fall in quarter-over-quarter profitability in this company.
25:59So I like to wait for this quarterly numbers before making a fresh buy. Just hold for at
26:08least one month and if the stock even comes below Rs.55, then also I like to buy, but not
26:15at higher prices. So just wait and watch would be a strategy and just wait for this quarterly
26:21numbers to take a call. Thank you, Ashish. And with that,
26:24we're completely out of time. I want to thank Ashish and Rajesh for joining us. And we want to
26:28thank viewers for joining us today. Remember, we will get all your stock-related queries answered
26:34with the fundamental technical analysis at the same time here tomorrow. But till then,
26:38stay tuned to NDTV Profit.
30:04Hello and welcome to Hot Money. This is Mahima Vachrajani. Let's take a quick look at how the
30:08markets are doing and then move on with the show. But in terms of the benchmark indices, the Nifty
30:1350 and Sensex, if you can pull up those charts, both did hit a life high today. The Nifty did hit
30:18a life high at 25,445, trading in a tough range of 80 odd points. Currently, almost 70 odd points
30:26away from its day's highs and trading flat at 0% as we speak. Let's pull up the Sensex and see what
30:31it's doing in trade. It did touch a life high at 83,184. And the Sensex is a tad bit under the
30:37pressure right now. It's down around 0.02%. It's trading in a range of 280 odd points and currently
30:44190 to 200 odd points away from its day's high. Let's also pull up the broader markets and see
30:49what they're doing in trade. Pull up the Mid Cap 150. The Mid Cap 150 has sustained its gains
30:55throughout the day and it's up around 1.15%. However, the Small Cap 250 has been a tad bit
31:00under pressure and is still under pressure, down around 0.13%. Let's also pull up the Bank Nifty
31:05and see what Bank Nifty is doing in trade. Well, the Bank Nifty has had a range bound trade in the
31:09past one week. However, it's doing well in trade today, up around 0.3%. Let's also pull up the
31:15contributors on the Nifty and see what are the counters in green and in red. The counters like
31:20Bharti Etel, M&M, L&T, ICICI Bank, some of the counters that are contributing positively on the
31:26index. Whereas, there are counters like HUL, Bajaj Finance, RIL Infosys, some counters that
31:31are pulling down on the Nifty. Let's pull up the breadth of the market and see what Advance
31:36Decline Ratio looks like. There you go. The chart has almost narrowed down to 1 is to 1
31:42and as I rightly said, the Advance Decline Ratio is exactly 1 is to 1 as we speak.
31:50And in fact, this map has been narrowing since the start of the trade today. Let's also pull
31:57up the sectors and see what are the sectors that are buzzing in trade today. Well, it's a second
32:01day of gain for Nifty Realty. Nifty Media is up also 0.8%. Again, gains for Nifty Metal, third
32:09day in a row, up around 0.6%. However, Nifty FMCG is facing some pressure today. It's down around
32:160.8% and this is on the back of the news of rise, in fact, rise of export duty prices on edible oil.
32:25They use edible oil as their raw material prices. So, margins for FMCG company might be under
32:31impact. But let's shift focus to rice stocks and KRBL is in focus. It's up around 5.6% as we speak.
32:39Now, this is on the back of government scrapping the minimum export price for Basmati rice and we
32:45have Akshay Gupta joining in, who is the head of bulk exports at KRBL. Welcome to the show,
32:51Mr. Gupta. First off, I want to understand that how do you see the impact of scrapping
32:57off this minimum export price overall in terms of your export volumes and profitability as well
33:04as overall for the industry? Yeah, so thank you for having me on the show. So, it's a very welcome
33:11move by the government of India to scrap the minimum export price. It was a long-awaited news
33:18and actually it has come in a good time for us because it's just the beginning of the purchase
33:23season for us for the new crop Basmati. And it gives us a lot more clarity on the new business
33:32that we are going to do with our exporters, with our importers worldwide. So, it will open up new
33:40avenues for the business. Actually, 950 was quite a high price for the current new crop prices that
33:48we are seeing in the market and it was restricting Basmati exports to quite an extent. So, it's quite
33:55a welcome move for us. Right. And Mr. Gupta, this $950 per tonne was reduced from $1200 per tonne
34:02last October. Did you see some kind of positive impact post that? Because that will help us
34:08quantify that, completely scrapping off that $950 per tonne, what is the kind of impact it
34:14will have overall in terms of your volumes and profitability? So, last year the government had
34:20put a $1200 MEP but it was at the end of the season. And then when the new crop came, we had
34:26again gone to the government to ask for a reduction in MEP on which they accepted $950. Last year,
34:34the new crop prices were on a higher side. But this year, there have been very good monsoons.
34:39We have seen an increase in crop by about 15% compared to last year. So, the new crop prices
34:46are expected to be even lower. And our competitor, Pakistan, also has a MEP of about $750,
34:54which is restricting Indian exports for the last four or five months. So, we had really
35:00the government to abolish the MEP altogether. So, it will have a positive impact on the trade.
35:06All right. And Mr. Gupta, from what I have gathered, even what analysts are suggesting is
35:12that there appears to be a surplus when it comes to rice production right now. And plus, there is
35:19some export realisation where you are actually facing issues. So, what is the scenario there?
35:27I'm trying to understand what's the scenario there. And do you see export realisations to
35:31be an issue here? Or do you see that improving as well? So, export realisations, I would like to
35:39bring some clarity here. So, Basmati has different varieties of Basmati there. So,
35:47from $800 up to $2,000 is the entire spectrum. So, this MEP will facilitate the transaction of
35:56the lower end of the Basmati spectrum. So, there's a variety called 1509, which has mainly
36:01gone into bulk exports. So, this variety is actually trading below the $950 MEP.
36:08So, the exports for this variety will get facilitated. The majority of the trade, which is
36:14about $1,100 plus will continue as is. So, the lower end will get a boost. So, we are expecting
36:22about 15% to 20% increase in the overall exports, which was being restricted for the last four,
36:28five months. Understood. And Mr. Gupta, in terms of your wholesale prices,
36:33do you expect them also to increase going forward because of this?
36:37Wholesale prices in India? Yes.
36:41No. So, see, Basmati is mainly an export commodity and 70% of the crop is almost exported. So,
36:47only about 25-30% of Basmati is consumed within India. So, it will have a minimum
36:53impact in the domestic prices for India. All right. And Mr. Gupta, you've seen a 30%
37:00decline in terms of exports in FY24. Now, this was a major loss. And of course,
37:07on the back of this news, you will be able to recover a lot of that amount. So, I want to
37:12understand that what are the kind of export volumes that you'll be seeing bouncing back
37:16and what will be the levers apart from this? See, as I said, these MEP abolishment will
37:25facilitate only the bulk exports. KRVL business is mainly in the
37:31branded segment and that business will continue as is. We were very minimally impacted by this MEP,
37:38but again, it's a welcome move because it will open up more trade avenues for us.
37:43But our branded business will continue as is. All right, Mr. Gupta, thank you so much for
37:51giving us those insights and making us understand what the scrapping of MEP means for Basmati rice
37:56exporters. And thank you so much for taking our time and speaking with us at NDTV Profit.
38:01Yeah, thank you. Thank you. Right. Moving on, there are a lot of stocks in focus,
38:05a lot of stocks that are buzzing on the back of a lot of news action. And we have Sharmila Joshi
38:10of sharmilajoshi.com joining us to give us insights on all of these buzzing stocks. Sharmila, I'll
38:18come to you first with all of these rice stocks, KRVL, LT Foods, Chamanlal Sethia, all of these
38:24are buzzing on the back of the scrapping of MEP for Basmati rice exports. Your view on these stocks?
38:31I think it's a positive view because what we've really seen is that while, as you heard the
38:36management say that it was the lower end of the spectrum that was affected and that will improve
38:41going forward. I think in a... So what I'm trying to say is that perhaps numbers were not affected
38:46to that extent, but you do see a sentiment in it when this kind of a ban comes in. And now that
38:51has been... That will go away. So sentiment-wise, it's a positive. Stocks have also corrected.
38:57So overall, I think it's positive news for the entire rice basket.
39:02All right, Sharmila. The next counter that is in focus is Adani Green and Adani Power.
39:09And we have Mihika joining in with more details on that. Mihika, what are you picking up?
39:13Yeah, Adani Green, Adani Power, both up 6% in trade today. And this is after
39:17both the companies received a letter of intent for the supply of power from the Maharashtra
39:22Discom. Now, the letter of intent is for an aggregate supply of 6,600 megawatts of hybrid
39:28solar and thermal power. Now, I'll come to Adani Green first. Now, Adani Green will supply 5
39:33gigawatts of solar power from Khavda, which is in Gujarat and is where the world's largest
39:38renewable energy park is currently being developed. The solar capacity is allocated
39:43at a flat tariff of 2.7 rupees per kilowatt hours. And the 5 gigawatt solar capacity award is
39:48actually the world's largest award of such kind since 2020. As for Adani Power, well,
39:53they will supply 1,486 megawatts of thermal power. And this will be from the new 1,600
40:00megawatt thermal capacity, which has used ultra supercritical technology. And this thermal capacity
40:06has been awarded for 25-year power supply. We actually had MK come up with a note on Adani
40:11Green Energy at a target price of 2,550 rupees, which is a 42.6% upset. And they've said that
40:16this development is a very key positive, you know, news flow for the company itself.
40:21Very interesting, Megha. Thank you so much for breaking that down for us. Adani Green,
40:25well, it's up in trade today. Both Adani Power and Adani Green are seeing more than 6% of gains
40:31as we speak. Sharmila, I'll come to you. You know, this is a 5 gigawatt solar capacity and this one,
40:36one of the world's largest awards since 2020. So it's a big one for both of these companies.
40:41Your view on both Adani Power and Adani Green? I'm once again positive because I think if you
40:47look at the breakup of the Adani group and where their growth has come from and where
40:52going forward business looks good, then I think, you know, power is definitely a space
40:57where you would see, I mean, not just for Adani, but I think for a whole host of companies,
41:02there are a lot of interesting things happening in this space. A lot of people are talking about,
41:07you know, green energy and that whole move and solar power with, you know, so
41:13making EV batteries, et cetera, et cetera. So across the spectrum, I think power is very
41:19interesting. And if you look at both these companies, this news is a definite positive.
41:22Their numbers look good. Valuations look attractive. So I think for both companies,
41:27it's very positive news. All right. So valuations also look attractive for both the company. That's
41:32a very interesting point. But another set of stocks which is in focus is sugar stocks
41:38and distillery stocks. Now, this is on the back of DFPD, allows ENA production from sugarcane
41:44juice and B heavy molasses. And we have Varsha joining in with more details on that. Varsha,
41:49what are you picking up? Well, Mahima, if you see companies like Balrampur,
41:52Chini, Shri Renuka Sugar, Bajaj Hindustan, all the sugar companies are up to date.
41:56Also, distilleries companies such as Radico Khaitan, United Spirits, Global Spirits and,
42:02you know, Allied Blenders and Distilleries are all up. Now, this is on the back of
42:08the major move that is the Department of Food and Public Distribution has allowed sugar mills
42:12and distilleries to produce for the production of rectified spirit and extra neutral alcohol
42:18from the sugarcane juice and B heavy molasses. So this decision will actually diversify revenue
42:24streams for sugar mills enabling them to produce RS and ENA which are used in the
42:28major industries like pharmaceuticals or alcohol or food processing and cosmetic industries.
42:34Now, previously the government had banned this to safeguard sugar production in December 2023
42:38fearing a shortfall in sugarcane crops. But however, Atul Chaturvedi told, who is the
42:45of Renuka Sugars, told NDTV Prophet that the cane crop looks strong this season and the new policy
42:51will not affect the sugar production. Now, distilleries are set to benefit and we are
42:54seeing the buzzing, we are seeing the stocks buzzing. Now, this is because their capacity
42:59utilization will improve which will enhance overall profitability. So this is the reason
43:03why we are seeing distillery companies and sugar companies are buzzing as of today.
43:07All right, Varsha. Thank you so much for giving us those details on distilleries as well as sugar
43:12stock. Well, more than the sugar stocks, it's the distilleries that are seeing significant
43:16up moves, something like Global Spirits, Radico Khetan. Radico Khetan is up 3.2%.
43:21Global Spirits is almost touching into the high of 10%. There's Tilak Nagar, there's a lot of
43:27stocks like Balram Puccini as well. Radico Khetan, again, as I mentioned, is up around 3%.
43:32Sharmila, your views, if you can break it down for us in terms of distilleries as well as sugar
43:40stocks, what looks attractive to you and of course, how will the news impact these stocks?