Locked On Rangers Podcast: Dylan Cease, is he worth the prospect price?
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00:00 The Rangers have been linked to a potential trade for White Sox ace Dylan Cease.
00:04 Is he worth the price and what would it take to get him?
00:06 We're going to talk about all that and more on this episode of Locked on Rangers.
00:09 Let's get into it.
00:12 You are Locked on Rangers.
00:14 Your daily Texas Rangers podcast.
00:19 Part of the Locked on Podcast Network.
00:21 Your team, every day.
00:24 You are Locked on to the World Series Champion, Texas Rangers.
00:37 I'm Bryce Patrick, a cripplingly addicted Texas Rangers fan, covering this team for
00:40 10 seasons, including all five as the founder and host of this podcast.
00:43 Thank you all so much for making Locked on Rangers your first listen every single day.
00:46 If you're not already, you can follow me on Twitter @BrycePatrick.
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00:54 you can help grow the show is to comment nearly any single thing below.
00:58 Now, before we get into who Dylan Cease is, what it would take to get him, and if he is
01:02 worth that kind of trade package, today's episode is brought to you by GameTime.
01:06 Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first
01:11 purchase.
01:12 Now, this all came out last night.
01:14 This is something that I have been waiting for, for the entirety of this very, very slow
01:19 off season.
01:20 We are still in the off season.
01:21 The season hasn't started yet, so still technically the off season, the preseason range, but still,
01:26 the Rangers finally linked to a potentially big move.
01:31 There's been a lot of speculation about Jordan Montgomery and whether he will or won't return.
01:35 He is still a free agent at this point, but it seems like the Rangers are shifting their
01:40 focus away from Montgomery at this point and more towards White Sox ace Dylan Cease.
01:46 Now, this all started in a column from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, which ironically
01:51 was talking about Jordan Montgomery and about the super agent, Scott Boris.
01:57 And there was a lot of interesting stuff in there, mainly that Jordan Montgomery is still
02:02 looking for a team.
02:03 He's built up to 65 pitches and he's still very much out there seeking a deal.
02:09 It talks about him potentially seeking a seven-year deal, according to MLB Trade Rumors, an article
02:15 there, and I thought why that was kind of insane.
02:18 I think that was on yesterday's show, maybe it was Monday's show.
02:21 The week is all starting to run together.
02:23 But one of the things that Scott Boris was saying in that article, talking to Evan Grant
02:27 at the Dallas Morning News, was not, "Oh, the Rangers, you absolutely need to sign Jordan
02:31 Montgomery.
02:32 Oh, you need to, you need to, you need to."
02:34 Obviously that's the subtext of the conversation, but he went on bragging about the Dodgers
02:39 and the Astros and how the things that separate the best franchises in baseball from the one
02:46 and dones is the teams that don't stop making moves after they win the World Series.
02:51 And just kind of like getting the Rangers going, "Hey, you see this team that you hate
02:55 down there?
02:56 You see what they've done the last few years?
02:58 You don't want to be swept under the rug by this team."
03:01 And I think honestly it's a brilliant tactic by Scott Boris to get the Rangers to make
03:07 a move to either sign one of his two big clients that's out there in Blake Snell or Jordan
03:13 Montgomery, or potentially it seems like they've turned their sights at another Scott Boris
03:18 client, Dylan Cease.
03:20 This is a guy who has been a good to very good to not so good pitcher for the last few
03:29 years.
03:30 He is 28 years old.
03:31 He has been entirely on the White Sox for all of his major league career.
03:35 And he is a very polarizing player in major league baseball.
03:39 Now the reason why Cease is a polarizing player, because he does some things very well and
03:45 other things very not well.
03:47 I'll talk a little bit more about it later on in the show when I say is he worth it,
03:51 but basically the guy strikes out a lot and he walks a lot.
03:53 I've heard him described as the pitching version of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., which I thought
04:01 was interesting at first, but then kind of an apt description of one year of amazingness
04:05 and then a whole lot of seasons where you're saying, "Why isn't this guy better?
04:10 This guy was supposed to be better and he has been better and we're not seeing it right
04:14 now."
04:15 But I also kind of think of him more as the right-handed version of Blake Snell.
04:21 And I've been very reluctant to link the Rangers to hope that the Rangers would get Blake Snell.
04:27 I mean, obviously the guy's electric, but when you walk that many and you are not going
04:31 that deep into games, that kind of limits your value that you can provide as a pitcher.
04:37 I'm kind of more in the camp of getting a lot of innings, whether you have to sacrifice
04:41 the strikeouts, whether you're not striking 15 per night, it's only like 10 per nine,
04:45 you're going six, seven innings per start as opposed to five, six.
04:49 I'd rather a guy that goes a little bit deeper into games, as long as the strikeouts are
04:53 still at a decent rate.
04:54 It doesn't have to be otherworldly.
04:57 I think that being a little bit more economical with the pitch count is something that's very
05:01 valuable, especially in a day and age where pitchers are going shorter and shorter into
05:06 games.
05:07 If you can get through an order three, four times consistently, that is a hugely valuable
05:12 skill.
05:13 But this has been some very, very credible links of the Rangers being in consideration
05:18 of trading for Dylan Cease.
05:20 I mean, in that article, Evan Grant goes on to say that the Rangers are strongly considering
05:25 what it would take to get Dylan Cease.
05:27 And then later last night, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote, "The Rangers are also
05:32 strongly considering trading for Dylan Cease."
05:35 They are not the only ones who have been considering trading for Dylan Cease.
05:39 The asking price has been very high.
05:41 I thought he might get moved at last year's deadline, but it felt like the asking price
05:44 was way too high.
05:45 There would have been two and a half years of team control, which would have been, you
05:49 know, even heavier prospect bounty, but the White Sox are asking for a lot.
05:55 And thankfully for the Rangers, they still have a top 10 farm system in baseball, according
06:00 to MLB Pipeline, even coming off of a championship, which doesn't really happen all the time.
06:06 And the Rangers have a deep farm system as well, and guys, they can afford to give up
06:10 without hurting their chances too much in their, you know, one year and three year window
06:16 for competition.
06:17 But in the article of the Dallas Morning News, where Evan Grant was talking about this, he
06:22 said that the White Sox scouts descended in droves upon a Rangers camp.
06:26 And Ken Rosenthal also talked about the White Sox scouts going out and looking at San Diego's
06:31 camp.
06:32 Padres are still a little light on pitching because they're probably losing Blake Snow.
06:37 I don't see any scenario where he comes back there because they're trying to shed payroll
06:42 after their owner tragically passed away.
06:45 And that's why they shipped off Juan Soto, but they're still trying to be competitive
06:48 in a very tough division.
06:50 And the Yankees, after getting some not great news, but still not saying exactly what the
06:54 news is about Garrett Cole's elbow, I have to assume that it's, it's kablooey.
06:59 Like there's too much secrecy and too much murmuring and whispering for it to not be
07:04 some kind of major issue.
07:06 And they're very much all in on this year because Juan Soto is a free agent after this
07:10 year.
07:11 So they also have to be pretty competitive in this window.
07:14 But it seems like the Rangers might be the favorites at this point.
07:18 All these articles that are writing about the Rangers having interests and, and talking
07:22 a little bit more seriously.
07:23 I'm not entirely sure if it's not a leverage play to Jordan Montgomery of saying, Hey,
07:28 we don't, we don't need you.
07:30 We don't need to sign you.
07:31 We can go trade for this other starting pitcher.
07:33 They haven't been linked to any other trade trades for starting pitchers in this market.
07:38 I thought they might've gone after Corbin Burns and I definitely think they could have
07:41 beat what the Orioles gave up as package there, but they didn't.
07:45 And so you have to move on and look at the next targets.
07:47 There are a couple of guys, a couple of lefty starters out of Miami who the Rangers, I'm
07:51 sure at least looked at, but I'm sure the asking price there was absolutely astronomical
07:56 as it should be.
07:57 Cause you know, lefty starters that are that good don't grow on trees, especially ones
08:01 with multiple years of control.
08:03 So they land on Dylan Cease and you deal with the White Sox and you hope that you can pull
08:08 one over on them and, and be able to get an ace level pitcher and hope that you can get
08:13 the best out of him.
08:15 Cause last year was not a good year for Dylan Cease.
08:18 His best year was 2022, his age 26 season had a 220 ERA, 184 innings and an ERA plus
08:26 of 180 finished second in Cy Young voting.
08:28 Also had 227 strikeouts, a career high in those 184 innings.
08:34 That second place Cy Young finish was just to Justin Verlander and he has never had another
08:39 all-star season.
08:40 Another, actually I don't think he's even had an all-star season.
08:43 No, he wasn't an all-star that year.
08:44 Somehow, I don't really particularly know how he wasn't an all-star that year.
08:49 But last year finished with a four and a half ERA, did start 33 games, started 32 the year
08:55 before, started 32 in 2021, started 12 in the COVID shortened season, and then 14 his,
09:00 his rookie year in 2019.
09:02 So the guy has been very durable and his strikeout rate has been phenomenal for his career.
09:07 10.8 Ks per nine for his career, but four walks per nine, not ideal.
09:11 A career ERA of 383, which is fine, but he's only had two seasons with an ERA below four
09:19 in his career.
09:20 That was 2022, the second place Cy Young season with a 220 ERA and then a 391 ERA in 2021.
09:29 The guy has been very inconsistent, but obviously the top level stuff is there.
09:33 There's something to dream on and he's only making $8 million this year.
09:36 So there is definitely good reason for the ranger to be considering him, but I'm still
09:42 a little skeptical, especially when it comes to the trade package.
09:44 Coming up, we'll talk about what it might take to trade for Dylan Cease and is he worth
09:49 the cost that it would take?
09:51 Right after this break from our sponsors.
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11:08 Later on this week, I'll be talking with Grant Schiller, who is out there in Surprise, getting
11:11 a good look at all kinds of different prospects, the big league camp as well.
11:15 Now, a question of what would it take to get Dylan Cease?
11:20 Now, it's incredibly difficult to predict trade packages for players.
11:24 It is usually an exercise in futility.
11:28 It is usually something we are all very, very wrong about, but it is still honestly a lot
11:34 of fun to kind of come up with these hypothetical trade scenarios and kind of figure out, all
11:38 right, what is the actual value?
11:40 Because a lot of these trades, it feels like right now, the value is a lot less than you'd
11:45 expect years and years ago.
11:48 Like back in 2015, I mean, the trade market always comes and goes of how much it values
11:53 prospects.
11:54 Sometimes people are higher on their prospects.
11:55 Sometimes they're lower on their prospects.
11:56 It seems like these days, people are a little bit higher on their prospects, more reluctant
12:00 to give them up than they were back even as recently as like 2015, when the Rangers were
12:06 making big old trades for guys like Cole Hamels and others, Cliff Lee as well.
12:15 But now, it seems like, especially with the Corbin Burns return, that felt like it was
12:20 much lower of a return than I was expecting.
12:23 And maybe the return for Dillon Cease will be not as bad as you'd hope.
12:30 Let's start with who it wouldn't take to get Dillon Cease, who is off the table.
12:35 Obviously Evan Carter, Wyatt Langford, those guys, non-negotiable.
12:38 There is no way they are even dreaming of entertaining either one of those guys in a
12:44 trade package for Dillon Cease or honestly just about anybody in baseball.
12:50 With the guys, with how they are, with their age, with their potential value, with how
12:55 highly the Rangers think of them, there are a list of maybe five to ten players in Major
13:00 League Baseball that I would even consider trading either of those guys for.
13:05 So get that out of your head.
13:07 That's not happening.
13:08 Don't worry about it.
13:09 They're also not trading Josh Young.
13:10 He is also around that level of caliber player.
13:15 He's established himself as an all-star rookie year.
13:18 That's not happening.
13:19 So then you look at the number three prospect on almost everybody's Rangers top prospect
13:25 list.
13:26 You got Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford, one and two, somewhere in there from everybody.
13:30 And then number three is Sebastian Walcott, the guy who's turning 18, I believe, this
13:36 week.
13:37 At some point this week, maybe it's today, maybe happy birthday, Sebastian Walcott.
13:40 He's a guy who absolutely lit it up in his first year of professional baseball.
13:45 The ceiling is absolutely astronomical with this kid.
13:48 His tools are loud as heck.
13:50 His arm is a heat-seeking missile powered by uranium.
13:56 His bat has all the power in the world.
13:59 And even though he's 6'4", he might be able to stick at shortstop.
14:03 Maybe he ends up in right field, maybe he ends up at third base, but the potential with
14:06 this kid is phenomenal.
14:09 And the Rangers had him in Big League Spring Training Camp, and he more than hell his own
14:12 had a couple of pretty good moments in Big League Spring Training.
14:17 And the Rangers think incredibly highly of this kid.
14:19 I would be very skeptical of the Rangers including him in a trade package for Dillon Cease.
14:25 It would be a lot, and I don't know that there would be much of anything else to go alongside
14:28 Sebastian Walcott because his value is so high.
14:32 And the reason I'm really skeptical of trading Walcott is because his value is insanely high
14:39 internally, and I don't know if it's quite as high externally.
14:43 And I'm absolutely terrified of one trade in particular, one that happened between these
14:49 Chicago White Sox and the San Diego Padres back many years ago in 2016.
14:55 On June 4th, 2016, Chicago White Sox traded for James Shields and Cash, and the players
15:02 that they traded away were Eric Johnson and Fernando Tatis Jr.
15:09 Fernando Tatis was just signed a year earlier, so he was still I believe 17 or 18 years old
15:13 at the time, still a long ways away from the Big Leagues, but the ceiling was incredibly
15:18 high.
15:19 He was one of those lottery ticket guys.
15:20 It's the worst possible outcome for trading one of those low-level flyer guys is he turns
15:27 into Fernando Tatis Jr., and you got like three years of mediocre Chris Sale, or excuse
15:33 me, not Chris Sale, James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr.
15:38 So that's the worst case scenario.
15:39 And then of the other prospects on this rangers list, Brock Porter is the one that I would
15:45 be most reluctant to give up in this deal.
15:48 I'd do it, but I'd feel really not great about it afterwards.
15:54 Right now, according to Ken Rosenthal, the players that are of the ilk of this trade,
16:00 a potential package, he included guys like Brock Porter, Ezekiel Duran, and Jack Leiter.
16:09 If that's the trade package that it takes to get him, I'd kind of grin and bear it,
16:14 but I think I'd do it.
16:16 Zeke Duran I think is a first division starter caliber player.
16:21 We saw what kind of potential he had when he was playing every single day, filling in
16:24 for Corey Seeger when he missed significant time in the first half of last season.
16:29 And without what Ezekiel Duran did, the Rangers might not even make the playoffs.
16:35 He was that important to this Rangers team.
16:38 But he is still your backup shortstop at this point.
16:40 He is probably not your opening day DH.
16:43 I'm pretty darn sure that's going to be Wyatt Langford.
16:45 There is not another spot for him to play every day in this lineup, barring an injury,
16:49 we'll see how quickly Corey Seeger is actually coming back, if he's actually ready for opening
16:54 day and how ready Josh Young is for opening day.
16:58 But if that's what it takes and Brock Porter turns into a middle of the rotation or even
17:04 top of the rotation pitcher, and if Jack Leiter figures it out and turns into Cole Reagan's
17:09 2.0, that would sting a lot.
17:12 But it's not like you have the most confidence in the White Sox, being an incredibly well-run
17:17 organization to scout out the guys that they're going to pull one over on the Rangers and
17:22 Dylan Cease is not going to be the same Dylan Cease the Rangers are expecting.
17:27 But you go back and look at the history of pitching development in the White Sox.
17:33 This is not one of the teams that I would say is one of the smartest front in baseball.
17:36 They had the same GM for what, 20 years until they made a switch last year.
17:43 And the guy who they promoted to be the new GM was just the assistant GM to the old GM.
17:48 And so this is one of the, under the radar, most old school, like not up to date front
17:55 offices in Major League Baseball that is just kind of lost touch with what it means to be
18:01 a modern team and modern philosophies and all kinds of things that make a lot of franchises
18:06 successful like the Dodgers, like the Rays, like even you're hoping the Rangers are turning
18:10 out to be and what the Astros did turning their franchise around.
18:14 All these teams are very, very modern in their thinking and the way they evaluate players.
18:19 The White Sox are not that.
18:21 But you look at some of the homegrown starting pitchers that the White Sox have churned out,
18:25 even just since 2015, and the list makes me green with jealous rage when I look back at
18:32 how few starting pitchers the Rangers had developed, homegrown starting pitchers.
18:37 Since 2015, guys who have pitched in their rotation who have had a top 10 Cy Young finish
18:42 that are homegrown or mostly homegrown guys that came up through mostly in their minor
18:48 league system.
18:49 These are the guys who they've had since then that have had top 10 Cy Young finishes.
18:53 Bill Encisse, Lucas Gialito did it twice.
18:57 Carlos Rodon did it twice, only once for them.
19:01 Jose Quintana did it once.
19:03 And Chris Sale has done it seven times in his career.
19:09 Seven times, top 10 Cy Young finishes.
19:12 It's nuts.
19:14 This is not one of the smartest teams in baseball.
19:16 How do they keep lucking into all of these good starting pitchers?
19:20 Well maybe there's something in the water there.
19:23 Maybe they're just lucky or maybe these guys who they traded for are just so talented that
19:29 they could succeed in any system.
19:31 I think that's definitely the case with Chris Sale.
19:35 Maybe it's the case with Encisse and Gialito and Rodon.
19:38 Maybe with Quintana, I don't know.
19:40 I don't have any idea.
19:41 But I know the Rangers would have killed for just one of those guys, one of those homegrown
19:47 talents in the last 10, 15 years, and they have not been able to do it.
19:53 And so if this is their alternative, if they keep trading away these guys and they just
19:58 have not had any luck, you think eventually one of these guys, one of these top pitching
20:03 prospects is going to have to work out and be at least a number four starter at rotation.
20:07 I would kill for that at this point, and that has not happened.
20:11 But trading for a cost control guy like Encisse, that's about what it's going to take.
20:16 My trade proposal, Ezekiel Duran, Justin Foscue, Josh Steven, Echedri Vargas.
20:23 Maybe you throw in a Marcus Torres in there to kind of make it a little bit more balanced.
20:29 But if you can get away with not including any of your top four prospects in Carter,
20:34 Langford, Walcott, and Porter, then I think that's a huge win no matter who else you give
20:40 up, even if it is Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, which I don't think they'd ask for Kumar Rocker
20:45 since he's hurt right now.
20:48 But I think that's the kind of trade package you're looking at.
20:50 I have Vargas as a top 10 guy in my list.
20:53 I mean, Foscue is number five on my prospect list, and Josh Steven is number 12.
20:58 So three top 12 guys and a guy who's ready to be an everyday starter at the major league
21:03 level, and Ezekiel Duran, who has, I believe, three more years, maybe four more seasons
21:08 of club control left.
21:11 That's a big cost.
21:12 But coming up, we're going to talk about is that cost worth it, and what can the Rangers
21:16 expect from Dylan Cease if they do pull the trigger and make that trade, right after this
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22:46 Later on this week, I'll be talking about the importance of John Gray, why he needs
22:50 to have a big season for this Rangers team to do well in 2024.
22:55 Now, I feel like that kind of segues me very well into, is this worth it?
23:02 Is Dillon Cease worth this kind of a trade package?
23:05 Is it worth it to give up this much for a guy who has been great at times and mediocre
23:12 as heck at other times?
23:16 Just by that segue of me saying, "Hey, this is John Gray.
23:19 He's going to be very important to the Rangers season and their success in 2024," it kind
23:23 of leads you to see, "Oh, yeah, this starting rotation is, well, it's fine.
23:32 It's not great.
23:33 It's not elite.
23:34 We'll see what it looks like with the guys who are healthy for, or are not healthy for
23:39 most of the season when they come back, how they look with Scherzer, Malley, and DeGrom.
23:44 But at this point in the first half, the rotation could use a little bit of a boost, and Dillon
23:49 Cease definitely is that.
23:51 I think one of the quotes that really, really stuck out to me in those two articles from
23:56 The Athletic and from the Dallas Morning News was one from Ken Rosenthal's article from
24:01 a Rangers person speaking on the condition of anonymity.
24:06 They said, "Have you seen our rotation in the first half?"
24:11 That's not an encouraging sign from your front office saying, "Yep, these guys kind of suck."
24:16 That's not something that the Rangers want getting out.
24:18 I'm sure Chris Young is absolutely livid that that quote got out from someone with the Rangers.
24:24 I don't know if it was a front office member, if it was a player, if it was a coaching staff
24:29 member, if it was...I don't know.
24:32 Somebody with the organization said that, and that is not the vote of confidence you
24:35 want given to your starting staff, which I think is fine at this point in the first half.
24:42 But again, you also have all the question marks of, "Can these guys all stay healthy,
24:47 at least healthy enough until you get the reinforcements from the other unhealthy guys,
24:52 and can that be enough to keep you above water, keep you in the fight for the AL West, or
24:57 at least for a wildcard spot, or at least to be around 500 when some of these guys start
25:02 to come back?"
25:03 And then you start to really see how good your team is.
25:06 But this opening day rotation, if they trade for Dillon Cease, it would look like this.
25:11 I think Nate Evaldi still starts opening day.
25:14 Dillon Cease is your game two starter, your number two starter in your rotation.
25:18 Then John Gray is bumped down all the way to number three as opposed to number two.
25:21 That feels much more safe about where he's going to be.
25:25 Andrew Heaney is your number four starter, and Dane Dunning is your number five starter,
25:29 with Cody Bradford as the long man in the pen.
25:32 And you don't really have to worry about Jose Ureña, and you don't have to worry about
25:36 needing something from Owen White.
25:38 Probably, hopefully.
25:40 You don't need to worry about needing something from Zach Kent, or potentially Jack Leiter,
25:48 if he's included there, or if he's not.
25:51 We'll see what happens, if that happens, and what that looks like.
25:56 But that feels like a much more safe, much more top-of-the-line rotation.
26:00 I feel like all those projections that are having the Rangers for anywhere between 82
26:04 and 86 wins, those are bumping way up if the Rangers make a move for Cease.
26:09 You got to have a lot more faith in this team if Dillon Cease is in the rotation, because
26:14 he has been so durable.
26:17 Hasn't missed a single start since 2020.
26:20 That's a rarity in this day and age.
26:23 But also, one of the guys you could say that about is Lucas Gialito.
26:26 And his elbow might be Ka-bluey, he might be down for the year.
26:30 And so, you never know with pitchers.
26:33 That's why you want to have a bazillion of them.
26:35 Max Scherzer was one of the most healthy pitchers for the last 15 years, how long he's been
26:40 in the big leagues.
26:41 And the last couple years, he's had some injuries and been knocked around, and been around 145
26:46 or 150 innings the last two years.
26:49 And this year, he's not going to be ready until June.
26:51 So you never know with pitchers.
26:54 You feel good, you feel better about guys who don't have that prolonged injury history.
26:57 And that's what Dillon Cease doesn't have, is a prolonged injury history.
27:02 But the walks, the walks, the walks, they are such a big problem.
27:08 They are such a monumental problem.
27:10 But the strikeouts are the antidote.
27:13 That's why Blake Snell has two Cy Youngs, is because even if you walk a bazillion guys,
27:17 if you don't give up a bunch of hard contact, you don't give a bunch of home runs, and that's
27:21 what Dillon Cease is, and you strike a million guys out, that's what Dillon Cease is, to
27:25 a lesser degree.
27:27 Then you can have seasons where you have success, and you can have success in the playoffs,
27:32 which is what the Rangers are hoping for if they trade all this prospect capital, all
27:36 this player value for Dillon Cease.
27:40 They're banking on getting the better version of Dillon Cease, the 2022 version of Dillon
27:45 Cease, not the 2023 version.
27:47 Now one of the reasons why I think that he didn't have as much success last year as he
27:51 did the year before, is his fastball velocity was down a whole mile an hour.
27:54 In the years before, he was averaging 96.5 miles an hour or better.
27:59 2019, his first year of the big leagues, 96.5 miles an hour on his fastball.
28:03 2020, the shortened season, 97.5 miles an hour on that fastball.
28:09 Next year, 2021, 96.7.
28:13 Next year, his best year, 96.8.
28:15 Last year, 95.6, the lowest of his career.
28:19 The Rangers can find a way to get that back.
28:20 He has looked fantastic in the spring, but his fastball isn't even his best pitch.
28:25 It's his most used pitch last year and for most of his career.
28:28 But the year that he had the most success was the year that he was pumping that slider,
28:32 and it was looking absolutely fantastic in 2022.
28:35 Now look at the breaking ball value, the overall catch-all metric for his pitcher run value
28:39 in 2022.
28:41 Breaking ball value is 100 percentile.
28:43 He had the best breaking stuff in baseball.
28:47 He threw that slider 47 percent of the time, fastball 41 percent, curveball 14 percent.
28:51 So that curveball was still pretty darn good as well.
28:54 The overall pitching run value is 99 percentile, so the top 1 percent of baseball pitchers
28:58 in 2022.
28:59 But you kind of knew that when he finished second in Cy Young voting only to Justin Verlander.
29:04 If not for Verlander having a father time defying season that kind of caught everybody
29:08 off guard, I think, I think Seas would have won that Cy Young.
29:12 But alas, still a Cy Young caliber season is what the Rangers hope they could get out
29:17 of Dylan Seas.
29:18 Maybe even two Cy Young caliber seasons.
29:20 And those pitchers don't grow on trees.
29:23 They really don't.
29:25 And even though there are all those question marks about, you know, his walks and about
29:30 how long he's going into his starts, it's really going to drive me crazy if he is, you
29:35 know, Andrew Heaney-esque and he's going four to five innings in starts.
29:39 That drives me nuts, especially when it's a guy who is, you know, your number two starter
29:43 in your rotation.
29:45 That drives me absolutely insane.
29:47 But a playoff rotation, in a playoff rotation where this entire team is entirely helpful,
29:52 healthy and helpful.
29:55 Seas is your number three starter, in my opinion.
29:59 That goes to Grom, Eovaldi, Seas.
30:01 Then your fourth starter is either Max Scherzer or Tyler Mallee, depending on which one's
30:05 healthier and more effective at the time.
30:08 Then you move all of those John Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning to the bullpen.
30:12 And if you have an injury or two in this rotation, then you have that kind of depth to go into
30:17 a playoff rotation where, you know, John Gray is at worst your number four starter.
30:23 If it's all those injuries, or multiple injuries, I should say.
30:28 Then he's your number four starter.
30:30 That's still a really, really darn good rotation.
30:33 And as for the guys in that projected trade from Ken Rosenthal, Ezekiel Duran, it's going
30:39 to sting if he goes to White Sox and is amazing.
30:43 And I think that's probably what's going to happen.
30:45 If Jack Leiter just continues to figure it out and turns into a number three starter,
30:51 and the Rangers give that up, and it's Cole Reagan's 2.0, that's going to be a huge bummer
30:58 especially if Cease isn't, you know, maybe not 220 ERA in 184 innings level Cease, but
31:05 it is somewhere in the middle of, you know, 290 ERA in 180 innings.
31:12 That's going to sting seeing Jack Leiter go do that somewhere else.
31:14 And Brock Porter definitely has the highest ceiling of any pitching prospect in this Rangers
31:19 system.
31:20 But he's still very young.
31:22 He still hasn't made it above low A. There are still a lot of tweaks to his development,
31:27 a long way to go because there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.
31:31 And there is a reason why starting pitchers on the open market, even guys like Jordan
31:36 Montgomery who don't have any top 10 Cy Young finishes and are maybe on a really darn good
31:42 rotation number three starter, because developing those guys is so hard.
31:47 Getting cost controlled starting pitching is so hard.
31:51 Dylan Cease has his flaws, but he is a cost controlled starting pitcher for two seasons
31:59 with that incredibly high upside.
32:02 Now maybe Mike Maddox is able to work some magic and get the best out of Dylan Cease
32:05 and get stuff with, you know, pitch shapes and all kinds of more advanced things that
32:09 the Rangers are doing a little bit better than the White Sox are doing.
32:13 Or maybe he reverts and he's kind of closer to what he was, you know, in 2021, which was
32:18 the mediocre season of his career, a 391 ERA and 220 strikeouts and under 170 innings.
32:27 Maybe that's it.
32:28 But you got him for two years for 8 million this year.
32:31 You don't have to brank the bank.
32:33 You can kind of hold out and hope for next year's pitching class.
32:37 Maybe the Rangers will feel better about spending money because they will have some kind of
32:41 longer term deal ironed out with the TV contract situation.
32:46 Or maybe you don't, and you can still have this guy in rotation when Scherzer and when
32:51 Heaney walk next year.
32:53 And so at this point, I think it's worth it.
32:56 It's a scary prospect trading, you know, this much value for Dylan Cease, a guy who has
33:01 been this volatile, but I think the Rangers have the best chance to go get them of these
33:06 teams that are involved.
33:07 They can make a trade package.
33:09 That's going to hurt a little because they all do.
33:12 But I think if you can keep Sebastian Walcott out of it, you can definitely get to keep
33:15 your top two prospects that are top 10 in all baseball out of it.
33:19 And if you can keep Brock Porter out of it, no matter who else you give up, that's a win.
33:23 Even if Brock Porter has to get involved, I think that's still a win.
33:26 The Rangers desperately need some starting pitching help.
33:28 And I think Dylan Cease is the answer.
33:31 That's going to do it for today's show.
33:32 Thank you all so much for listening and subscribing.
33:33 And until next time, don't forget to enjoy World Series champion Texas Rangers baseball.
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