Locked On Rangers Podcasts: Jordan Montgomery reunion in trouble, Leody Taveras expectations
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00:00 After a breakout season last year,
00:01 Lele DeVeres established himself as the Rangers center fielder.
00:04 But with two top prospects in the outfield chomping at his heels,
00:08 is he going to keep his job as starting outfielder for the Rangers in 2024?
00:13 And some news out of Boston that could mean the end of the Rangers' hopes for a reunion with Jordan Montgomery.
00:18 Talk about all that and more on this episode of Locked on Rangers.
00:20 Let's get into it.
00:21 You are locked on Rangers.
00:26 Your daily Texas Rangers podcast.
00:29 Part of the Locked On Podcast Network.
00:33 Your team, every day.
00:36 You are locked on to the World Series champion Texas Rangers.
00:49 I'm Bryce Patrick, a cripplingly addicted Texas Rangers fan,
00:51 covering this team for 10 seasons, including all five as the founder and host of this podcast.
00:55 Thank y'all so much for making Locked on Rangers your first listen every single day.
00:59 If not already, you can follow me on Twitter @BrycePatrick.
01:01 You can follow the show @LockedOnRangers.
01:03 Hit subscribe on your favorite podcasting platform and on YouTube,
01:06 where the best way you can help grow the show is to comment nearly any single thing below.
01:10 Now, before we get into the expectations for Lele DeVeres,
01:13 why he is such a valuable player,
01:15 and the news coming out of Boston that could end the Rangers' hopes at bringing back Jordan Montgomery,
01:21 today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel.
01:23 Make every moment more.
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01:29 Just visit FanDuel.com/LockedOn to get started.
01:32 Now, there's news this morning from Jeff Passen of ESPN out of Boston's camp.
01:39 Boston's starting pitcher Lucas Gialito likely has a partially torn UCL and flexor strain
01:45 and could miss the 2024 season.
01:47 League sources tell ESPN Gialito, who signed a two-year deal with Boston,
01:52 may need surgery to repair the right elbow damage.
01:56 Now, that is some rough news for Boston and rough news for Lucas Gialito,
02:01 a guy who I thought the Rangers could have bought pretty low on this offseason.
02:04 Ended up getting a lot more money than I thought he would,
02:06 and it made perfect sense in Boston.
02:09 I still thought they needed another starting pitcher for the rotation they had,
02:13 and an okay rotation.
02:14 I think their bullpen's pretty darn good,
02:16 especially with Chris Martin having a world-beating season last year.
02:20 I believe it was around a one-ish ERA and Kenley Jansen was solid,
02:24 and their offense was a lot better than a lot of people expected.
02:27 And at this point in the offseason,
02:29 it feels like the Jordan Montgomery sweepstakes is a two-team race between Boston,
02:34 which, you know, is where his wife is having her residency,
02:38 so obviously it would be nice to go back to the Northeast,
02:41 where he was with the Yankees and was close to his wife,
02:45 or he's coming back to Texas, where he just won a championship and clearly is a fit here,
02:51 and clearly the Rangers would really, really like him to come back.
02:55 Now, this felt like exactly what Scott Borris was holding out for.
03:00 Not that he was hoping for any injuries,
03:02 but at this point, with the two big pitchers on the market left being Jordan Montgomery
03:07 and Blake Snell, both Borris clients,
03:11 the hope there was that he would get some kind of extra leverage over some team
03:16 that is hoping to compete, which I think is the Boston Red Sox this year.
03:20 That's what they're saying, at least.
03:22 They're saying they want to be competitive,
03:24 but now they might be without one of the guys in the middle of the rotation,
03:28 one of the surest options to, you know, munch away some innings
03:32 and just be a solid part of that rotation.
03:36 I mean, one of the things that I'm sure the Red Sox love
03:39 and that I was excited about Giulietto if the Rangers were to sign him
03:43 is that he has been very healthy, very consistent,
03:45 made most of his starts the last three years,
03:48 and this just goes to show you that pitchers are the most fragile beings on the baseball diamond.
03:55 It's not their fault.
03:57 Throwing a baseball like that that many times,
03:59 it's just there's so many different things that can go wrong with the elbow,
04:02 with the shoulder, with everything of this process
04:05 that even the guys who you bet on to be very, very durable sometimes aren't that.
04:10 I mean, Max Scherzer was the peak of durability for the first, what, 15, 16 years of his career,
04:16 and here the last couple of years he's finally starting to be ravaged by father time.
04:20 Had an injury last year that we thought was going to end his season,
04:23 ended up seeing him again in the ALCS and in the World Series,
04:26 and, you know, those six or nine, however many innings he actually threw in the postseason
04:31 helped the Rangers enough to get that championship,
04:34 but then had herniated disc surgery.
04:36 He's going to be out until June.
04:38 The Rangers are--they signed Tyler Mallee, who's coming off Tommy John surgery.
04:42 Their $185 million ace that they signed pitched six games for them last year
04:47 and will miss most of this year as well.
04:50 It's just the gamble you take with pitchers.
04:53 But now the other team, one of the teams very heavily linked to Jordan Montgomery,
04:57 has some incentivized leverage.
05:00 The Boston Red Sox have lost leverage over Jordan Montgomery, saying,
05:04 "Eh, we don't really need you. We're going to compete with the guys we have in our rotation,"
05:08 but they're still a team that has plenty of room to add to their payroll this year.
05:13 Right now, they have the 12th highest payroll.
05:16 The Boston Red Sox, a team that has been one of the better run teams the last 20 years,
05:22 has the most championships, I believe, tied for the most championships since the year 2000.
05:27 Of any team in Major League Baseball, I mean, they broke the curse of the Bambino
05:30 and then they just went nuts, and then they went cheap the last couple years.
05:35 It didn't really make a whole lot of sense.
05:38 For a team that did sign one of their stars to a long-term deal,
05:41 they lost Xander Bogarts and really, really got blown out of the water with the offer.
05:46 Xander Bogarts from the San Diego Padres, they signed Rafael Devers to that $300 million deal
05:51 and said, "OK, we're going to compete."
05:53 So Jordan Montgomery made sense as a fit there.
05:55 He made sense as a fit on most any roster.
05:58 For a team that's in an incredibly difficult division,
06:01 now Scott Boris can go to them and say, "Hey, are you really sure about your being competitive this year?"
06:07 Or it might go the other way, and it might force the Rangers to finally up their offer to Jordan Montgomery
06:13 and think, "OK, maybe they thought they could wait out Boris at this point."
06:16 I mean, we're 23 days away from opening day.
06:19 Maybe the Rangers thought, "OK, eventually we will wait out Boris.
06:22 Look at what happened with Matt Chapman. Look at what happened with Cody Bellinger."
06:26 Those guys settled for much smaller deals with some opt-outs, with some flexibility,
06:30 because so many teams are in an uncertain place with the TV revenue
06:34 or whatever else their finances are in uncertain places about,
06:39 which is what the Rangers are claiming as well and where they likely are.
06:43 And they thought, "OK, we can wait out Scott Boris on a Jordan Montgomery signing,
06:48 hope that none of our guys get hurt in spring training,"
06:50 because if this were the Rangers, this is their number three starter, the Phillies,
06:54 maybe their number two starter even.
06:56 This would be like, I'd say, Dane Dunning or maybe Andrew Heaney or, God forbid, John Gray.
07:03 Maybe it's the equivalent of a John Gray.
07:06 If John Gray was missing the season, then the Rangers would have to empty their pocketbooks
07:11 for whatever Scott Boris was asking with Jordan Montgomery.
07:14 Thankfully, that's not the case where the Rangers are right now,
07:17 but maybe seeing that the Boston Red Sox might be a little bit more desperate,
07:20 the team that is most heavily linked to Jordan Montgomery,
07:23 according to Bob Nightingale of USA Today,
07:26 there have been several more teams that have reached out to Scott Boris in the last couple of weeks
07:29 since spring training started about Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.
07:33 Unfortunately, he didn't name any names, which isn't super helpful in reporting.
07:37 It just feels like more smoke by Boris to get his clients more leverage.
07:43 But at this point, it feels likely that other teams are like,
07:47 "OK, well, if these guys are still out there, we didn't really think that we were going to add these guys."
07:50 It could kind of be like a Nathan E. Evaldi situation with the Rangers last year.
07:54 I mean, at Christmas last year, the Rangers had already added, what, three, four, five starting pitchers, maybe?
08:01 From that point in the offseason, they had Jaco DiRizzi, brought back MartÃn Perez, signed Jacob LeGrom.
08:07 They had signed Andrew Heaney at that point.
08:11 And then they added Nate Evaldi as a fifth starting pitcher just during the offseason.
08:18 And so maybe a team that doesn't really need a whole lot of help in their rotation,
08:23 maybe the Baltimore Orioles finally open up that checkbook.
08:26 I mean, they have a question mark about their number two starter in Kyle Braddish.
08:30 The industry is expecting him to have Tommy John surgery,
08:34 so maybe that could get them in on the Jordan Montgomery sweepstakes.
08:37 I think they were one of the teams that was looking at trading for him at the deadline,
08:40 but the Rangers seem to offer a better package to the St. Louis Cardinals.
08:44 It seems like that is a very good trade package looking back, but hey, it vaulted the Rangers over the Orioles.
08:51 And I don't know why that team that is so low in payroll and has room in their rotation,
08:56 everybody in Major League Baseball has room in their rotation for a Jordan Montgomery.
09:00 And even though it might be a little bit of an overpay,
09:04 sometimes that's what you got to do for reliable starting pitching.
09:07 I've been saying all offseason that I want the Rangers to go ahead and do that.
09:12 Maybe getting the Boston Red Sox, maybe they'll up their offer,
09:16 and Scott Bors will come back to the Rangers and say, "Hey, Boston upped their offer.
09:20 This is your last chance to get this guy and bring him back."
09:23 I think that Jordan Montgomery wants to be with the Rangers.
09:27 The Rangers definitely want him here.
09:29 And I think that this might be something that finally forces one of these teams to budge.
09:37 If they've been waiting for some kind of leverage play, some kind of anything to affect one of the main teams,
09:43 that is a suitor for Jordan Montgomery, this might end up being what gets the deal done
09:48 or gets somebody to move because Jordan Montgomery is too good a pitcher to still be out there.
09:53 Same thing with Blake Snell. I'll talk about that later on in the week,
09:56 why I think a shorter-term deal--I might come around on a shorter-term deal for signing Blake Snell.
10:00 But this is a guy who needs to be back on the Rangers, has needed to be back on the Rangers a long, long time.
10:06 It can't go on much longer for him to be ready for opening day.
10:09 We're just over three weeks away from opening day.
10:13 These guys need to get their reps in.
10:15 They need to get some spring training outings in so they can be fully healthy, fully ready for the start of the season.
10:20 Now, we'll see how that works out, but I think this is an important development for the Rangers specifically.
10:26 It might finally get Jordan Montgomery back in a Rangers uniform
10:31 and get him that lifetime of free barbecue that that one restaurant offered Jordan Montgomery
10:36 that might end up being the sweetener to bring our large, lefty son back home to Texas.
10:42 Coming up, we're going to talk about Leodi Taveras, a little bit about a great start from Cody Bradford,
10:46 what's expected from him, and how Leodi can still be the starting center fielder for the Rangers at the end of this regular season,
10:53 right after this word from our sponsors.
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12:48 Now, Neal Tavares is a very good baseball player.
12:53 That might be a controversial statement among a lot of Rangers fans,
12:57 but this guy is good.
12:59 This is a good home-grown player playing center field, doing it well,
13:05 and is one of the best number nine hitters in the entirety of Major League Baseball.
13:12 Last year, he played 143 games with the Rangers, 31 doubles, 14 home runs,
13:17 733 OPS, an OPS+ of 97, so just 3% worse than the average Major League hitter,
13:23 and a 2.6 baseball reference war season.
13:28 That is a good player, a good young player, and he is still getting so much better.
13:34 That was his age 24 season.
13:36 It feels like he's been around for a long time, mainly because this is his 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9th
13:45 Major League Spring Training.
13:48 2016 was the first time that he was in Major League Spring Training,
13:51 but this is going to be probably just the third time that he has more than 10 games
13:56 under his belt in Spring Training.
13:58 Even last year, he only played in 5 games because of the injury,
14:00 but last year, it took a little time for him to get back up to speed.
14:05 Thankfully, that injury ended up being a blessing in disguise,
14:08 letting Travis Jankowski make the roster,
14:10 and we all know how that worked out pretty well after that point.
14:16 But Leo De Tavares is the Rangers center fielder.
14:18 This is not something that is in question.
14:20 I thought it might be in question, whether he was going to play center field,
14:23 whether he was going to play left field,
14:25 but Bruce Bochy has said time and time and time again this spring that,
14:29 "Nope, Leo is our center fielder. That's what's happening.
14:32 Evan Carter is going to be in left or right.
14:34 Wyatt Langford is going to be in left or right or DHing,
14:37 and Adolphe Garcia is going to be playing in right field or DHing at this point."
14:43 So this is what it is. This is where the Rangers are.
14:46 And having a young, talented switch hitting guy who is for power,
14:51 guy who has speed, guy who fields very, very well,
14:55 a player like Leo De Tavares,
14:57 because there was so much promise on him as a prospect,
15:00 I feel like that really hangs over his head in a big, big way
15:05 and sometimes creates unfair expectations for Leo De Tavares.
15:10 Now, one of the things that I talked about that made Evan Carter so great
15:13 and why I was so high on him is because the things that Evan Carter does well,
15:17 getting on base, being fast, having a good glove, those things don't slump.
15:25 That is the player who has a high, high floor,
15:28 and Leo De Tavares doesn't have Evan Carter's walk ability.
15:32 If he did, then I think that might make him too powerful.
15:36 But he does have elite speed. He has an elite arm.
15:40 And he has pretty good instincts in the field.
15:43 Now, I feel like he gets unfairly penalized because so many times,
15:47 or so unfairly thought of as a bad defender,
15:50 but overall he has been a very, very solid defender for his major league career.
15:54 Last year, a +1.9 defense overall from FanGraphs in 2021,
16:00 a +5.8 defense overall.
16:03 Last year, a 2.3 FanGraphs for a player.
16:05 Projects to be about that this year according to FanGraphs.
16:08 They think he's going to play in fewer games this year,
16:10 but hit the same number of home runs.
16:12 They think he's going to be about a league average hitter.
16:14 And that's the expectation for Leo De Tavares.
16:17 The expectations on this guy are not sky high.
16:20 They are not insanely high. They are not astronomical.
16:24 I think he might put a little bit too much pressure on himself
16:26 because he looks over to his right when he's standing in the outfield
16:30 and sees, "Oh, there's Evan Carter.
16:31 There's this 21-year-old kid who just went nuclear in the postseason."
16:35 And then he'll see Wyatt Langford over there and think,
16:39 "Okay, well, how am I going to stay in here?"
16:42 Well, his base running and his defense.
16:45 Those things are incredibly valuable for a player,
16:48 especially for when you're a center fielder.
16:51 That defense is so valuable and so often overlooked.
16:56 Just having a 2.5 baseball reference for war season or better
17:00 from a homegrown player, a truly homegrown player,
17:04 that's not something the Rangers have done a whole lot these last couple years.
17:07 Since 2010, there have been only seven players that have had a 2.5 war season.
17:13 Now, that's homegrown players from the Rangers since 2010.
17:17 That's 14 seasons.
17:19 That's one every other season.
17:21 That's not something that happens very often.
17:23 Those players are Leo Tavares, Joey Gallo, IKF, Rougneau-Nadour,
17:27 Leonis Martin, Craig Gentry, Ian Kensler, and Michael Young.
17:32 I guess that's--I think that's eight because I was not including Leo in this.
17:36 But how many of those guys were pre-arbitration eligible?
17:39 One of the things that I talked about this team being so good,
17:41 why they're set up so well for the long term,
17:43 is because not only do they have these good hitters, and so many of them,
17:47 but a lot of them are pre-arbitration.
17:49 Now, Leo Tavares is no longer pre-arbitration.
17:52 He's making, I believe, around $3 million this year.
17:55 But he was pre-arbed last year, a 2.5 war player.
17:59 How many homegrown pre-arbed 2.5 war players have the Rangers had since 2010?
18:03 Well, there's been Leo who's done it once,
18:06 Joey Gallo did it twice, Rougneau did it once,
18:09 and the other two are Leonis Martin and Craig Gentry.
18:11 So, not a whole lot of guys that are putting up that kind of numbers
18:15 while being a pre-arbed guy.
18:17 I think the Rangers will have several guys that end up doing that this year.
18:20 Josh Young just missed the cut.
18:22 He was at 2.3 baseball reference war.
18:24 So, just barely outside of that range,
18:27 I think Josh Young is probably going to have at least a 2.5 war
18:30 baseball reference war season this year.
18:32 I think we're probably going to see that from Evan Carter.
18:34 And depending on when Wyatt Langford comes up,
18:36 how much defense he plays, how much time in the outfield,
18:38 I think we're going to see that from Wyatt Langford as well.
18:41 I'm of the mind that Langford's going to start on opening day.
18:44 But, a lot of that depends on him,
18:47 what the Rangers do if they sign a DH,
18:50 which I don't think they will or should.
18:52 And a lot of that depends on Leo Tavares.
18:54 Now in spring training,
18:56 it has not been the easiest run for Leotie's plate in seven games.
18:59 13 at bats, hitting below 100,
19:02 but on base of 278, so the walks are pretty decent.
19:05 Four walks and 13 at bats, so 17 plate appearances there.
19:10 Not a horrible development there.
19:13 Getting a lot of plate appearances as a right-handed hitter,
19:16 something he didn't do as well last year.
19:18 But this is a guy that is a well-rounded player,
19:21 and if this is the ninth best hitter in your lineup,
19:26 the ninth best position player you have,
19:28 and he's a 2.5 war player,
19:31 that is incredibly valuable.
19:34 That is incredibly rare,
19:36 and Leo Tavares is one of the biggest reasons
19:40 why this lineup was so dangerous, so deadly,
19:43 so unbeatable last year at times.
19:46 Because of a guy like this,
19:48 who's maybe an average hitter,
19:51 an average big league hitter,
19:52 that's still a pretty good player,
19:54 plus all the defense that he brings in center field,
19:56 plus all the base running that he brings.
19:58 If he's getting on base ahead of your leadoff guys,
20:00 ahead of Marcus Simeon, ahead of Corey Seager,
20:03 those guys are going to drive him in.
20:05 And with his base running,
20:06 he can get in the scoring position pretty easily for those guys.
20:09 And if that's the ninth best player on your team,
20:13 that puts you in such an incredibly great position.
20:17 Coming up, we're talking about what he did so well last year,
20:19 what he needs to do to continue that,
20:21 and what he needs to improve on this year in 2024.
20:25 Right after this, we'll hear from our sponsors.
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20:43 You make all kinds of bets, like the Rangers over/under on wins
20:46 is set at 88.5 right now.
20:49 Before, it was 89.5, but at 88.5,
20:51 I feel much more tempted to smash that over.
20:54 I think this Ranger team is going to be really good
20:56 during the regular season.
20:57 There's a lot of variance,
20:58 and so if you're believing in the health of the Rangers,
21:00 I think that is a great bet to make.
21:02 There's also bets on Corey Seager as the third favorite for AL MVP.
21:05 And the Rangers have two rookies in the top three of AL
21:08 Rookie of the Year honors in Evan Carter at number one
21:11 and Wyatt Langford at number two.
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21:17 FanDuel, official sports book partner of the NBA.
21:20 Shout out to the avid avidators for making Locked On Rangers
21:26 your first listen every single day.
21:28 On Thursday, I'll be back and talking with a member of
21:31 the NFL Prospectus' team about their Rangers season preview,
21:35 and then predicting the Rangers to have just 84 wins.
21:38 We're talking about all that on Thursday's show.
21:41 Now let's get back to Leo Itavares, a very good baseball player.
21:45 And the thing that I think we learned about Leo Itavares last year
21:49 that we kind of learned the year before in 2022,
21:52 is that Mr. Leo Itavares is a very, very, very streaky player offensively.
22:00 Like I said, that defense doesn't slump him being a pretty darn good defender
22:03 in center field.
22:04 There are some misplays that he has every once in a while,
22:07 but overall, generally, he is a pretty darn good fielder.
22:10 His fielding run value last year, according to Baseball Savant,
22:13 was in the top 16% of baseball, base running value, top 8% of baseball.
22:18 So that is a very good overall player.
22:21 But offensively, we saw it very much in the first half versus the second half
22:27 this past year in 2023, and even more egregiously in 2022.
22:34 This year in the first half, he had an 8-12 OPS,
22:37 10 of his 14 home runs in 296 played appearances.
22:41 And in the second half, an OPS nearly 100--actually, exactly 170 points lower
22:49 at 642.
22:51 Now his best months were categorized by clearly in the month of May,
22:55 the guy was a hitting machine.
22:57 Hit .368 with an on-base just one point shy of .420 and slugged over .500,
23:02 a 935 OPS in that month of May.
23:05 Came back at the end--at the middle of April,
23:08 played in 16 games in the month of April, and was abysmal.
23:12 He's still coming back from that oblique injury,
23:14 and there were a lot of questions of, "Okay, well, I mean,
23:17 Evan Carter spent about like five minutes in double A,
23:19 but should we call him up and have him replace Lioti?"
23:23 "I don't know. We're going to give Lioti a little bit of time,
23:25 and we'll see if he can figure it out."
23:27 And then the month of May happened, and Lioti quieted all of those doubts
23:31 while Evan Carter was going through a bit of a slump
23:34 after his power got sapped after getting hit in the arm by a pitch.
23:39 Not the best middle months for Evan Carter,
23:42 and a very good middle two months of the season in May and June
23:45 from Lioti Tavares.
23:47 Lioti also hit seven home runs in the month of June,
23:50 and slashed a pretty darn good 266, 303, 521, and 824 OPS,
23:56 the second best month of his season.
23:59 But then it got rough in July,
24:02 and it really, really got rough in the month of August,
24:06 when the Raider offense was just not doing much of anything in August,
24:10 and they needed some kind of boost from anybody.
24:13 I mean, Mitch Garver and Corey Seager were going nuts in August,
24:18 but August was the month of bad offensive Lioti Tavares,
24:23 hitting below 200, the last line of 194, 225, 333,
24:29 just one home run in that entire month, four walks to 26 strikeouts.
24:36 There was a lot of thought of, "Okay, maybe now it's time for Evan Carter.
24:39 Maybe now it's time for just somebody else in centerfield,
24:42 because this is not sustainable, even from your number nine hitter,
24:46 a guy with a 558 OPS for a month. That's not great."
24:50 But the thing about Lioti that he did last year that he didn't do the year prior
24:55 is that eventually he pulled himself out of that slump.
24:58 That was something that we didn't see in 2022,
25:00 and one of the big questions was,
25:02 "Is he a guy who's just as great in the first half,
25:05 and then falls off a cliff and can't get himself out of that kind of tailspin?"
25:09 It was kind of a two-month tailspin, because in the month of July,
25:12 he wasn't that much better either, a 625 OPS in that month,
25:16 nearly 200 points lower than the month of June.
25:19 But hey, in September and October, he turned himself around,
25:22 hit just one point shy of 300 for that month, two home runs,
25:26 but a 793 OPS, just a little bit shy of 800.
25:30 That's Lioti that the Rangers were hoping for.
25:33 That's Lioti they saw a little bit of in the playoffs,
25:36 and that's why he was able to keep that starting role.
25:39 If he had been much worse than that, it would have been really tough to watch.
25:45 But overall in the playoffs, that bat did not play up,
25:48 especially in the World Series.
25:50 Offensively in the World Series, it was rough.
25:53 It was incredibly rough for Lioti Vares.
25:56 0 for 16, did have three walks, but a 151 OPS is not great.
26:04 He was much better in the ALCS.
26:06 Defensively, he had that home run robbery of Jordan Alvarez.
26:09 I believe that was in game five, maybe that was game four,
26:12 but great defense all around there,
26:14 and even hit a home run off of Justin Verlander in the ALCS.
26:18 That's what kind of a big-time player Lioti Vares can be,
26:21 hit 333 in that wild card series, an on-base of 385 in the ALDS,
26:27 and 801 OPS in seven games of the ALCS.
26:31 That was solid, but again, we saw it from series to series.
26:35 Lioti Vares is a very streaky player,
26:38 and that's something you can deal with with your number nine hitter.
26:41 But he's got to have those hot streaks to kind of balance out the long, cold streaks.
26:46 One of the things that differentiates, in my mind,
26:48 the best players in Major League Baseball from the guys that are just OK,
26:52 average, middle-of-the-road, everyday starters,
26:55 is that Corey Seager does not have prolonged months where he sucks.
27:01 Everybody in Major League Baseball will have at least a couple weeks
27:03 where they're in a stinker, they're in a cold spot,
27:06 they are just not doing well either at the plate or on the mound.
27:09 That's just what happens. It's the nature of a 162-game season.
27:13 There are very few players--
27:15 One of the things that was most impressive about Ronald Acuna Jr. for me last year
27:18 is that he didn't have a single month with an OPS below 900.
27:22 I think he might have had one at 875 or something,
27:25 but every single month, Acuna was just incredible until the playoffs.
27:31 But still, these guys who are pretty good starting-caliber players,
27:36 like Luis Tavares, a pretty good everyday starter,
27:39 first-division starter, I'd say,
27:41 he will have a couple-month stretch where he is just in a really, really rough way.
27:45 He'll also have balanced it out with those prolonged stretches of being fantastic.
27:50 Now, if he can cut down on some of those prolonged bad stretches,
27:55 like maybe instead of having a two-month bad stretch, have a one-month bad stretch,
28:01 just kind of make those hot streaks last a little bit longer
28:05 and those cold streaks last a little bit shorter,
28:07 that is the mark of a great player.
28:09 But the things that are expected from Leo Tavares this next year,
28:13 there are basically three things that the Rangers want him to do--
28:16 play great defense, work solid at bats, and be a menace on the base paths.
28:23 That's it.
28:25 The results aren't as much of a concern from your number-nine hitter,
28:30 but playing consistent defense, he's still got that absolute cannon for an arm out there in centerfield,
28:36 which is a very fun thing to have at a centerfielder.
28:39 I loved watching Leonidas Martin play centerfield defense,
28:42 and I love watching Leote play centerfield defense,
28:45 not only because he'll make those spectacular plays of robbing home runs,
28:48 but that arm is a deterrent very much from hitters taking the extra bases,
28:52 which makes your pitchers better, which makes your team overall a lot better.
28:55 I think he's going to be a little bit more aggressive on the base path this year.
28:59 We saw him have 14 stolen bases this past year.
29:02 I think we could see that number bump up just a little bit in the regular season.
29:05 I think the Rangers overall will be a little bit more aggressive.
29:08 And the success rate was pretty solid.
29:11 In 2022, he stole 11 bases, got caught stealing five times.
29:15 This past year, he had 14 stolen bases, just got caught stealing four times.
29:19 I want to see that number bump up just a little bit,
29:21 hoping the on base goes up into the--
29:24 if he can get it up into the 320 range from your nine-hole hitter,
29:28 that would be great.
29:29 Last year, it was at 312, which was okay, solid.
29:33 14 home runs, 14 stolen bases, pretty solid,
29:36 especially when you pile that in with 31 doubles.
29:39 This is a solid player,
29:41 and there is not a whole lot of expectation on Leo Tabarrus.
29:45 Now, I know for years and years and years, he was brought up as--
29:47 you know, this is one of the Rangers' top prospects.
29:49 There was a lot thought of him basically from the age of 16.
29:52 It took him a whole five years.
29:54 He was 21 when he made his big league debut back in 2020,
29:57 and it felt like, okay, we've been hearing about this guy for absolutely forever.
30:01 There is like prospect fatigue on a 21-year-old making his big league debut.
30:06 I think we have to shed those prior expectations.
30:09 Don't think about the Leo Tabarrus that was promised.
30:12 Think about the Leo Tabarrus that's here today.
30:15 That's a good player. That's a valuable player.
30:17 And there is no need to just ship him off for whatever deal.
30:22 Like, looking at that Corbin Burns trade and thinking,
30:25 "Well, what if the Rangers just traded Leo Tabarrus
30:28 and just put him in that deal and got an ace at the top of their rotation
30:31 to kind of help them out and not have to worry about Jordan Montgomery
30:34 and not have to worry too much about how healthy these older pitchers are
30:37 when they get off the I.L. at some point, various points this season?"
30:41 Leo Tabarrus, three years of club control of Leo Tabarrus,
30:45 is worth more than one year of Corbin Burns.
30:49 This is a darn good player.
30:51 This is a hard thing to do is to home-grow these players.
30:53 The Rangers are about to do it quite a bit to make it look more common,
30:56 but it is not. It is not something they have done well
30:59 over the course of the last couple years.
31:01 And I think we need to appreciate who Leo Tabarrus is,
31:04 the kind of player that he can be, and not put unfair expectations on this guy.
31:08 If he ends up with a 20-home run season this year and a 20-steal season,
31:11 I think that would be an absolutely phenomenal outcome.
31:15 Maybe he doesn't have a second-half crater like he did last year,
31:18 but hey, we saw him pull himself out of it,
31:21 and maybe we can see a little bit more from him in the playoffs this next year
31:24 than we saw overall in 2023.
31:27 But it didn't matter because this offense is so stinking deep,
31:30 so stinking talented, that if this guy, a 2.6 baseball reference for a player,
31:35 is the guy you think of as your ninth-best position player,
31:39 it goes to show you how incredibly good, how incredibly talented,
31:42 and how incredibly deep this formidable Texas Rangers offense is.
31:46 And my God, it just keeps getting better.
31:50 But appreciate Leo Tabarrus for who he is, not who he was expected to be,
31:53 because who he is is a darn good center fielder.
31:56 That's going to do it for today's show.
31:58 Thank you all so much for listening and subscribing, and until next time,
32:01 don't forget to enjoy World Series champion Texas Rangers baseball.
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