Locked on Rangers: Is Nathaniel Lowe is due for a breakout year and could Jordan Montgomery take a pillow deal?
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00 After a breakout season in 2022, Nathaniel Lowe took a step back offensively in 2023.
00:05 On today's show, we'll talk about why he is due for a breakout offensive season again
00:09 in 2024, and if Jordan Montgomery could come back to the Rangers on a pillow deal.
00:14 We'll talk about all that and more on this episode of Locked on Rangers.
00:16 Let's get into it.
00:20 You are Locked on Rangers.
00:22 Your daily Texas Rangers podcast.
00:26 Part of the Locked on Podcast Network.
00:28 Your team, every day.
00:42 You are Locked on to the World Series champion Texas Rangers.
00:44 I'm Bryce Patrick, a cripplingly addicted Texas Rangers fan, covering this team for
00:47 10 seasons, including all five as the founder and host of this podcast.
00:50 Thank you all so much for making this your first listen every single day.
00:53 If you're not already, you can follow me on Twitter @BrycePatrick.
00:56 You can follow the show @LockedOnRangers, hit subscribe on your favorite podcasting
01:00 platform and on YouTube, where the best way you can help grow the show is to comment nearly
01:04 any single thing below.
01:05 Now, before we get into what Nathaniel Lowe needs to do to have a breakout season again
01:09 in 2024 and about Jordan Montgomery possibly coming back on a pillow deal, today's episode
01:14 is brought to you by GameTime.
01:16 Download the GameTime app, create an account and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first
01:21 purchase.
01:22 Now, the Rangers have a gold Glover, a silver Slugger, a World Series champion at first
01:28 base in Nathaniel Lowe.
01:30 The 28 year old is coming off a massively improved defensive season that was some of
01:37 the most improvement I've ever seen in any aspect of any player's game from one season
01:42 to another.
01:43 I think it was nothing short of astounding how much better Nathaniel Lowe's glove got
01:50 last year.
01:52 And I think that is a huge testament to him as a person, to the coaching staff, to his
01:56 work ethic, to the dedication he has to being the best at every aspect of his game.
02:05 And even though his bat took a little bit of a step back last year, the defensive improvement
02:09 was noticeable at a glaring level.
02:12 It was just so obvious in 2022 that he was honestly terrible and truly terrible defensively
02:19 at first base.
02:20 And Nathaniel Lowe would be the first one to tell you that my defense was not good enough
02:24 in 2022.
02:26 But in 2023, he won a gold glove for defense at first base and it was completely earned.
02:32 A lot of times gold gloves go to guys who just happened to hit well that season.
02:37 Like, all right, I don't know.
02:38 I guess we'll throw out a gold glove to this guy.
02:40 But the improvement that Nathaniel Lowe made in scooping balls, in his range, in throwing
02:47 decisions, every single aspect of his defense got impossibly better in 2023.
02:55 But the bat took a bit of a step back.
02:57 Back in 2022, he was, I'd say pretty unquestionably the Rangers best offensive player for 2022.
03:05 Now Corey Seager did have a few more home runs than him.
03:08 Corey Seager was also an all-star.
03:10 Adoles Garcia had a pretty solid season.
03:13 And Marcus Simeon, after that horrendous first couple of months, really took it up a level
03:19 down the stretch.
03:20 But no one had a better second half than Nathaniel Lowe, maybe in all of baseball.
03:26 I mean, the post all-star break numbers that he put together, it really buoyed what was
03:32 at that point an okay season.
03:35 In the first half, he had a 752 OPS, which is fine, hitting around 270, slugging in the
03:41 430s, it was fine.
03:45 But in the 72 games, just over 300 played appearances after the all-star break in 2022,
03:52 the man was on a mission.
03:54 He was on fire, like you have rarely seen a player, and for a 72 game stretch, it was
04:01 not just a couple of days, a couple of games, a couple of series, a couple of months, it
04:05 was the entire second half.
04:08 He hit nearly 340, then on base, one point below 400, slugged 566, a 964 OPS in those
04:16 301 played appearances with 15 bombs.
04:20 And you thought, okay, this is the Nathaniel Lowe that the Rangers saw when they traded
04:26 for him.
04:27 This is the guy who they thought, yeah, this is a first division starter.
04:30 This is a guy who can hit lefties, who can hit righties, who can hit for power, who's
04:35 got a great batting eye, great swing decisions, just a very patient hitter, and all the raw
04:42 pop in the world.
04:43 And I remember that majestic home run he hit at Coors Field, which wasn't just buoyed by
04:48 being Coors Field.
04:49 He absolutely got a freaking hold of one.
04:53 And when Nathaniel Lowe gets a hold of one, that thing goes a long, long way.
05:00 He is a very patient hitter by his nature, but sometimes too patient to a fault.
05:07 In 2022, the reason why I think he had so much success, because he was a lot more aggressive.
05:12 He wasn't afraid to strike out, wasn't as afraid to expand the zone.
05:17 He did walk at a significantly lower clip than he was used to in his career.
05:20 He walked 7.4% of the time in 2022, where his career average for walk rate is 10.8%.
05:28 Now that is more the hitter Nathaniel Lowe is.
05:32 And this year that walk rate jumped way, way, way, way back up, all the way up to 12.8%,
05:37 the highest walk rate of his career, top 10% of baseball in walk rate this year.
05:42 But the barrel percentage, the hard hit percentage, the average exit velocity, expected batting
05:47 average, expected slugging percentage, all of those were down pretty significantly this
05:52 year.
05:53 All of those were in the top 30% of baseball outside of barrel percentage, which he was
05:58 two points shy of top 30% of baseball.
06:00 And he hit over 300 for the full season because of those amazing second half numbers.
06:05 But the guy was balancing being a patient hitter while unloading and doing damage, which
06:13 is what you want your first baseman to do.
06:15 This guy is someone who's going to hopefully hit in the middle of this lineup.
06:20 I don't think he's going to be hitting third nearly as much this coming year as he did
06:24 in 2023, but I could be entirely wrong.
06:29 I think this is a year that Nathaniel Lowe kind of puts, marries those two approaches
06:33 together and finally finds the best of both worlds.
06:38 Because for the most part, it was, it was a bit of a rough go of it for him offensively
06:42 in 2023.
06:44 The post season was not friendly to him.
06:46 It was, it was a really rough post season for him.
06:49 Did have three home runs, including a majestic justice serving shot to Jose Abreu, excuse
06:56 me, Brian Abreu.
06:57 He did not hit a home run off of Jose Abreu.
07:00 He hit one off of Brian Abreu after Brian Abreu was not suspended for hitting El Bambi
07:05 and then proceeded to hit Mitch Garver in game seven.
07:09 And Nathaniel Lowe said that that's enough of that, Mr. Abreu.
07:12 I'm going to deposit this one into the right field, make this an absolute route of a game
07:16 seven as opposed to mostly a route of a game seven.
07:21 And he also had a game tying home run off of Justin Verlander in the ALCS.
07:26 He had a solid ALCS showing in those seven games.
07:30 He had a slash line of 259, 310, 519 with two of his three home runs in the post season.
07:37 The other one coming against Baltimore in that game three, we could just see the weight
07:42 lifted off of his shoulders with that home run.
07:44 I thought that was going to really lead to more of a breakout for the remainder of this
07:47 post season, but it didn't quite happen.
07:49 Is it okay?
07:50 Pretty solid ALCS showing and the World Series was just really rough for him.
07:54 I mean, hitting below 200 with an on base of just 300 and a OPS of 535.
08:01 That's not the Nathaniel Lowe that the Rangers know.
08:03 That's not the Nathaniel Lowe that hit third for the vast majority of this past season.
08:09 That's not the guy who the Rangers trusted to be the insurance behind Corey Seager of,
08:14 okay, you can't just pitch around Corey Seager every single time up during the regular season
08:18 when he was having that historically good season because Nathaniel Lowe is there and
08:23 he's going to do some damage.
08:25 And one of the reasons why he was so good in 2022 and not as much so in 2023 is how
08:31 he fared against lefties.
08:33 Now back in 2022, he had nearly 200 plate appearances in the season against lefties,
08:37 had a 330 batting average and a 920 OPS.
08:43 The dude absolutely destroyed lefties in 2022.
08:48 And that wasn't as much the case.
08:49 He actually hit better against lefties than he did against righties.
08:53 103 point higher OPS against lefties than against righties in 2022.
08:59 Now this past season, that was not the case.
09:01 He kind of regressed against lefties.
09:03 He didn't hit nearly as well against lefties as he did the year before.
09:07 He had an 833 OPS against righties this year, this past year, and a 642 OPS against lefties.
09:14 And on base just at 311, a slugging percentage under 350.
09:19 That's not Nathaniel Lowe that was doing damage and going on that historic run in the second
09:23 half.
09:24 That is not Nathaniel Lowe that the Rangers traded for and saw and knew could hit lefties
09:31 and could hit high premium velocity.
09:33 Those are the two biggest questions about him as well as his defense and why the raise
09:37 said, all right, we'll keep his brother, Josh, but this Nathaniel Lowe, he can go.
09:42 We'll take a Slavis Basabe and a couple other prospects who I don't think any of the other
09:46 prospects made the major leagues just yet.
09:48 But the Rangers saw this, this ability in Nathaniel Lowe.
09:52 And for that second half of 2022, he really showed off.
09:55 Can we ever talk about why it is so rare to have a gold glove and silver slugger first
09:59 baseman?
10:00 What other contemporaries are there and what else needs to happen for Nathaniel Lowe to
10:04 be another middle of the order bat that can recreate that historic, fantastic second half
10:10 of 2022.
10:11 Right after this word from our sponsors.
10:17 This episode is brought to you by Game Time.
10:18 You shouldn't have to worry about buying tickets to your next big event because Game Time is
10:22 the fast and easy way to buy all the tickets for all the sports, music, comedy, and theater
10:26 events near you.
10:27 With killer last minute deals, all in prices, views from your seat, and their best price
10:31 guarantee, Game Time takes all the guesswork out of buying tickets.
10:35 They've got something for everybody, all kinds of different events you want to go to.
10:38 If you're wanting to go out to a Mavericks game, I believe they start back up their post
10:43 all-star break tonight.
10:44 Also the Stars are doing pretty darn well.
10:46 If you want to go out and check out a Stars game, there's plenty of concerts coming through
10:50 here or if you're heading out to spring training in Arizona, games start tomorrow.
10:55 You can check out all the best way to get your tickets.
10:58 It is so easy, so hassle-free.
11:00 Take the guesswork out of buying tickets and go to the Game Time app, create an account,
11:05 and use code LOCKDON for $20 off your first purchase.
11:09 Terms apply.
11:10 Again, create an account and redeem code LOCKDON for $20 off.
11:15 Download Game Time today.
11:16 Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed.
11:23 Shout out to the Ebionators for making Lockdown Rangers your first listen every single day.
11:26 On tomorrow's show, we'll be talking about what we learned from the Rangers' first week
11:29 of spring training.
11:31 Now Nathaniel Lowe is a goal glover and a silver slugger at first base, which there
11:36 are not a whole lot of guys in Major League Baseball who have done that the past couple
11:42 years.
11:43 I think that Nathaniel Lowe's greatness is often underappreciated because he is not the
11:49 flashiest player, because he is not putting up monster, monster numbers.
11:54 He did have that monster second half, but it has been quite an improvement.
12:00 But just having a guy who has a goal glove and at least one silver slugger at first base,
12:05 here are the active players that have that.
12:07 There's Freddie Freeman, Matt Olsen, Paul Goldschmidt, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Nathaniel
12:14 Lowe.
12:17 That's a short list.
12:18 That is a very, very short list.
12:20 I'm kind of surprised that Freddie Freeman has a goal glove.
12:23 That might be one of those that was just kind of doled out there.
12:26 Like, "All right, Freddie's hitting pretty well this season, so let's give him a goal
12:28 glove," because somehow that is the logic behind that sometimes.
12:35 But it is a short list of guys who are elite with the glove and with the bat.
12:41 And Nathaniel Lowe is, you look at the rest of these guys, and they are high-priced free
12:48 agents, high-priced, very expensive guys on big old deals.
12:53 Freddie Freeman, Matt Olsen, Paul Goldschmidt.
12:57 Vladdy is still in arbitration, but he's making like $20 million this year as a, what,
13:03 24-year-old, I believe.
13:06 But if you look at the war for the last couple years of third baseman combined, Nathaniel
13:12 Lowe is seventh among guys who primarily play first base.
13:17 They did include, Fangrafts did include Luis Urias, Brandon Drury, and Jake Cronenworth
13:22 as primary first baseman, but those guys have not been primary first basemen for the last
13:27 couple of seasons Nathaniel Lowe has.
13:30 Here are the guys with a higher Fangrafts score than him the last couple of seasons
13:33 at first base.
13:35 Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Olsen, Yanni Diaz, Christian Walker, and Pete Alonso.
13:43 Nathaniel Lowe is getting the respect he deserves by making that top one, MLB's top 100 players
13:48 right now.
13:49 I would very strongly have recommended that Jonah Heim be a little higher in that list
13:55 than Nathaniel Lowe, because having a switch hitting catcher who hits for power and is
14:00 an absolute monster defensively, I think provides a little bit more value than a pretty darn
14:06 good two way first baseman.
14:07 That's not to discredit Nathaniel Lowe to say he doesn't deserve being in top 100.
14:11 I think he absolutely does.
14:12 It's more about Jonah Heim.
14:14 Go listen to yesterday's episode to hear that whole spiel about why Jonah Heim is so freaking
14:19 good.
14:20 But Nathaniel Lowe is so freaking good as well.
14:24 And one of the things that I like about Nathaniel Lowe is the quality of his at bats.
14:29 And I think that's something that gets overlooked because it's difficult to quantify.
14:34 You can quantify the swing decisions that he makes, the amount of times he expands his
14:40 own, the amount of times he's able to foul off borderline pitches, the amount of close
14:44 pitches that he takes that are out of the strike zone and works those walks.
14:50 But just the length and quality of at bats, there's not really a specific stat to track
14:56 to say, "Oh yeah, this was a good at bat.
14:58 We got down 0-2, fouled off a couple pitches, took a couple pitches, worked a full count,
15:03 and then lined out to the second baseman on an 8 pitch at bat."
15:09 That goes down as L6-4 in the stat sheet.
15:17 But the quality of at bat, the pitches that he saw, and the pitches that everybody else
15:22 was able to see in the lineup, that's a difficult thing to quantify.
15:26 And I think that's why, even with the numbers being where they were last year for Nathaniel
15:30 Lowe, I think that's why he stayed hitting third in this lineup for the vast majority
15:35 of this season.
15:36 Now, he wasn't hitting third in the postseason because the Rangers really, really needed
15:42 just a lot more Corey Seager insurance in the playoffs.
15:46 Teams were a lot more willing to just completely avoid him at all costs, as we saw what Baltimore
15:51 did in game two of that series, when I think he got, what, Corey Seager got two pitches
15:57 in the strike zone that entire game, too.
16:00 He worked what, five walks, could have been, I think it was four walks, and could have
16:03 been five or six if he hadn't been a little aggressive just to get a pitch to swing at.
16:09 But I think that he could definitely slot back into the middle of this lineup.
16:13 Where exactly that is, I don't think it really matters as much.
16:17 Whether he's hitting third again, I think that's probably going to be Adoles Garcia.
16:20 If it were me, I'd probably still have Marcus Simeon batting leadoff, and Seager obviously
16:24 feels great hitting second.
16:26 And then I think having Al Bomby hitting third, I think that's a solid choice.
16:32 And with the addition of Evan Carter, who knows where he's going to slot in and where
16:36 the Rangers are going to end up putting Haim and Young.
16:39 It is a very complex, difficult puzzle, but I think somewhere in the middle third to maybe
16:45 seventh is where Lowe is going to hit.
16:48 And having a guy with his potential hitting in that middle third of your order, that is
16:53 what makes this lineup so dangerous.
16:56 There's not a whole lot of pressure on Nathaniel Lowe to go out and have that 950 OPS for the
17:02 full season that he did in that second half in 2022.
17:05 That's not what the Rangers are asking.
17:06 I don't even think they're going to be asking him to have an 850 OPS, which is what he did
17:11 for the full season in 2022, including that okay, first half.
17:16 I think somewhere around 800 to 850 OPS is what the Rangers are hoping for from him.
17:22 And having him in that middle third to maybe even bottom third of your lineup kind of shows
17:28 the depth of how good this team is and how there's not really a whole lot of pressure
17:32 on Nathaniel Lowe to force things, to try and expand his own, not by being more aggressive
17:41 on pitches that he likes that are maybe borderline, but just trying to do more stuff for the sake
17:46 of doing more stuff.
17:48 And it was a long, long season for Nathaniel Lowe.
17:51 Last year, playing in 161 games, I kind of ended up forgetting that, oh yeah, Nathaniel
17:55 Lowe's just playing every single day.
17:58 And we get a lot of credit and publicity to Marcus Simeon at age 32, playing 162 games
18:03 and then playing all 17 postseason games.
18:06 And rightly so, setting that record for the most played appearances combined in a regular
18:10 season and postseason combined, it is a valuable thing to get from your leadoff guy.
18:15 Nathaniel Lowe was in there all but one game.
18:19 And think about this Rangers roster construction.
18:21 There is a lot of good bats on the bench.
18:25 And if the Rangers are missing some time from Josh Young and Corey Seager, if that extends
18:29 into the regular season, which I'm not thinking, hoping it's not the case.
18:34 But there's not a whole lot of backup first basemen on this roster.
18:39 The amount of guys that have spent time at first base is fairly limited.
18:45 In fact, when you have 161 games from your first baseman who did not DH a single game
18:50 last year, I thought there would be more DH games from Nathaniel Lowe last year, but nope,
18:54 that was not the case.
18:55 161 games, all of them at first base.
18:58 The only one he didn't play, that was when Ezekiel Duran played first base.
19:02 And as of this point, he's pretty much the only one on this roster that has time as a
19:09 first baseman.
19:10 And I think it might just be that one game at the big league level.
19:13 There might be some games in the minor leagues where Zeke Durant played first base, but for
19:18 the most part, yeah, okay.
19:20 Two games, 10 innings.
19:21 So one inning outside of that one game that he played, that was played, that first base
19:27 was occupied by anyone other than Nathaniel Lowe.
19:30 Just 10 innings the entire season where it was someone else besides Nathaniel Lowe at
19:34 first base.
19:35 Now, there might be, have been someone else who played a couple of innings here or there
19:39 for Lowe, but I don't think there was.
19:40 I'm pretty sure he was just as much iron manning it as Marcus Simeon.
19:46 But I think this is going to be a good season for Nathaniel Lowe because the rest of the
19:50 lineup is so deep, because they are adding in an Evan Carter for a full season, because
19:54 they are adding in a Wyatt Langford probably for the full season.
19:58 Because there's not a whole lot on the 40-man roster behind him.
20:03 Unless Justin Fosthue goes absolutely nuclear, which I don't particularly see happening this
20:08 spring training, and Nathaniel Lowe is going to be the first baseman for maybe 162 games
20:14 this year.
20:15 Maybe he'll dial it down to 159 and have Zeke Durant play a couple games, and maybe Fosthue
20:20 comes up and plays a couple games at first base, but it is pretty much Nathaniel Lowe's
20:24 position, because when you're looking at first base prospects on the horizon, well, first
20:30 base prospects is usually an oxymoron because there's not a whole lot of prospects that
20:34 hit well enough to be a prospect as a first baseman.
20:37 But there's an Abimelic Ortiz on the horizon.
20:39 I don't see him overtaking Lowe anytime soon.
20:42 Nathaniel Lowe has three more seasons under contract, and he is a very solid contributor,
20:47 a very under-the-radar, solid two-to-three win regular at first base.
20:53 And even though it's not the sexiest position, it's not prime Prince Fielder or prime Mark
20:58 Shara, Nathaniel Lowe is a darn good player that is an important part of this lineup.
21:03 And I think if he has a breakout year this year, this offense could go to unforeseen
21:08 heights with a big year from Nathaniel Lowe.
21:10 Coming up, we're going to talk about Jordan Montgomery possibly taking a pillow deal,
21:14 what that would look like, and why there are still so many free agents on this market,
21:18 right after this word from our sponsors.
21:20 This episode is brought to you by FanDuel.
21:26 Get buckets with your first bet on FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook.
21:29 Because right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 bet.
21:35 That's $150 if your bet wins.
21:37 They've got all kinds of different MLB player specials right now.
21:41 If you're wanting to bet on who is going to lead Major League Baseball in home runs right
21:45 now, the favorite is Aaron Judge plus 420.
21:48 They do have a couple of Rangers on there that are, I'd say, pretty low on this list.
21:51 I mean, Adonis Garcia is at plus 4,000.
21:55 He is below Mike Trout.
21:57 He is above Bryce Harper, which is a little surprising.
22:00 If you want to bet on Corey Seager to lead Major League Baseball in home runs, he's at
22:03 plus 6,500.
22:04 Or if you're wanting to go with an even bigger long shot, all the way down to Marcus Simeon
22:10 at plus 20,000.
22:13 That's a pretty solid odd, I'd say, about Marcus Simeon.
22:17 I mean, I don't know if he's going to lead the league in home runs, but he's had some
22:20 pretty darn big home run seasons.
22:22 Who knows what he's going to be primed for coming off of his first ever World Series
22:25 Championship.
22:26 So just visit Fanduel.com/Lockdown and shoot your shot.
22:29 Fanduel, official sportsbook partner of the NBA.
22:32 Shout out to the avid aviators for making Lockdown Rangers your first listen every single
22:38 day on tomorrow's show.
22:41 The first game of the spring training season.
22:44 I'll have another episode for you late Friday, or I guess afternoon, or maybe it'll be early
22:50 on Saturday.
22:51 So be sure to check that out.
22:52 I'm talking about Dane Dunning's first start of the spring and what else we are going to
22:56 see from that first spring training game.
22:58 We are almost there.
23:00 We are so close.
23:01 You can taste it to spring training games.
23:03 And then before you know it, it'll be the regular season.
23:06 But even though games start tomorrow, actually games start today, the first spring training
23:11 game, even though the Rangers game is not today.
23:13 Dodgers and Padres spring training happening probably a little bit after this episode releases.
23:19 So we are finally back.
23:20 Games are happening, but there are still so many big free agents on the market, including
23:25 the Rangers number one target, at least in my estimation, in my hope and thoughts and
23:31 prayers, Jordan Montgomery is still a free agent.
23:34 At this point, 1109 Central Time on February 22nd.
23:40 I keep having my tabs open just to see if the news breaks in the middle of me recording
23:44 these episodes.
23:45 I have not, that has not happened so far, but this tweet from Evan Grant last night
23:51 of the Dallas Morning News gave me some pause, gave me some, some intrigue.
23:55 It feels like the first new information about a Jordan Montgomery deal of any kind that
24:02 we've seen.
24:03 And even though it's not particularly news per se, Evan Grant tweeted this at 7.06 PM
24:09 last night, Wednesday night, he said, quote, we grow ever closer to a quote pillow contract
24:17 with every passing day.
24:19 If Monty gets to a point of say two year with opt out after one becomes far more realistic.
24:27 End of tweet.
24:28 Now, that was not something that I thought would happen for Jordan Montgomery.
24:32 I thought that he would be once the top two pitchers in the market and by top two pitchers,
24:40 I mean Yamamoto and Shohei Otani.
24:44 Once I thought those guys were off the market, I was pretty sure some would come in hot with
24:49 a big old offer sheet for, for Jordan Montgomery.
24:53 He is a guy who projects as a, probably a number three starter, maybe a number two,
24:58 I think a solid one B for a playoff rotation that the Rangers used to win the world series.
25:06 But you'd kind of feel a little bit better if he is your number three.
25:10 We saw the heights of what Jordan Montgomery can be with the Rangers last year during the
25:14 regular season.
25:15 And during the playoffs, I mean, he was a 2.1 baseball reference for player in 11 starts.
25:21 He was very, very good for the Rangers in the regular season.
25:25 Not spectacular, but very good.
25:28 Sub three ERA in nearly 68 innings, not a whole lot of strikeouts, not a whole lot of
25:33 walks, not a whole lot of hard contact, but a solid, fairly durable, healthy, reliable
25:40 middle rotation pitcher.
25:42 And there's a lot of teams out there that could still use that, which is why I'm confused
25:46 that he hasn't taken a deal just yet.
25:50 I mean, there's still four really big free agents out there on the market.
25:56 Obviously the big four are, uh, you know, Jean Segura, Will Myers, uh, uh, Kiki Hernandez
26:02 and J.D. Martinez.
26:03 No, no, the big four are obviously guys who I think are still probably going to get at
26:08 least, I don't know if all these guys are gonna get a hundred million dollars, but at
26:11 the start of the off season, I thought for sure in, you know, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger
26:18 in Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.
26:21 If you'd asked me the start of the season, the off season, I would have thought, yeah,
26:24 absolutely.
26:25 All those guys are getting at least a hundred million dollars, if not at least $125 million.
26:31 But that does not appear to be the case.
26:34 And I don't think all four of these guys are represented by Boris.
26:37 I know that Monty is, I know that, um, Chapman and Pollock are, maybe Blake Snell is too.
26:45 I'm not entirely sure.
26:48 But all these players are fairly good, major league players.
26:52 They're not perfect.
26:53 No major league player is, but they are very good players that could help a whole lot of
26:59 teams.
27:01 And it's not just the Rangers that are saying, all right, we're, we're good on giving these
27:05 guys five-year deals.
27:07 I feel like maybe the Rangers would have tried to worked in some, some opt-outs, some deferrals
27:12 with a Montgomery deal.
27:13 I'm, I've got to imagine they're still staying in contact and it still feels like the most
27:18 obvious fit in the entire world of just bringing Jordan Montgomery back on.
27:24 It seems like he's asking for five years and probably about $20 million a year.
27:31 And if you asked me the start of the off season, I would have done that in a heartbeat of five
27:35 years, a hundred million dollars total for Monty.
27:38 Done deal.
27:39 Why has that not been done?
27:41 But it seems like even an offer like that, I thought the spot track projection for what
27:47 Montgomery is going to make was incredibly low.
27:49 It's at six years and about $18 million a year.
27:53 So that's I think $118 million is, is what he's projected to make.
27:58 Yeah.
27:59 Six years, $110 million was what the spot track projection was.
28:04 And I thought there's, there's no way it's that low.
28:06 There's no way someone doesn't come in and blow him away with an offer of, you know,
28:12 six years, 150 million or five years, $125 million.
28:17 Like that, that just felt like an inevitability after what he just did during the playoffs.
28:21 Cause we all saw it.
28:24 We all saw him go insane against some of the best lineups in baseball.
28:29 I mean, he absolutely shut down that Astros lineup in all three games he pitched in the
28:35 two starts and the game seven appearance out of the bullpen.
28:39 He wasn't that great against the Orioles, but you know, it was a weird game where he
28:43 was having to sit for a long, long time because the Rangers were dropping a bazillion runs
28:48 on the Orioles and Grayson Rodriguez in that game too.
28:52 But he was lights out against the Rays.
28:55 He was absolutely dominant against the Rays in the wildcard game.
28:58 Those seven shutout innings in that amazing diving catch at a crucial, crucial moment.
29:04 He was the Rangers co-ace on their run to their first ever world series.
29:09 I honestly don't understand why a deal hasn't been done.
29:12 What little nitpicky arguments are happening.
29:15 It seems like all around major league baseball, all these different teams are saying, yeah,
29:19 no, we're good.
29:20 We actually don't want to sign any of these top free agents.
29:23 I mean, I get the drawbacks for Blake Snell, even though he is a two time Cy Young winner,
29:29 even though he is coming off an absolutely insane last four month season.
29:33 I mean, basically from May to the end of the year, he was just unhittable.
29:38 You just could not get hits off of him.
29:40 You could not square him up.
29:41 He was striking out everybody and their mother.
29:44 But you know, he is a flawed player in those other seasons where he hasn't won the Cy Young.
29:49 He has been questionable.
29:51 But Matt Chapman is about as solid as they come.
29:53 He's going to be a three to four win player.
29:56 It seems like pretty much every year.
29:58 Defense still really darn good.
30:00 Still hits the ball really well.
30:01 It's hitting it on the ground a little bit much, but he's still hits the ball fairly
30:04 hard and provides a lot of value.
30:08 There's a lot of teams that could use an upgrade at third base, not the Rangers.
30:12 I don't think they're gonna be on him.
30:13 And Cody Bellinger is just such a weird case with, you know, his MVP past and immediate
30:20 fall off to what seems like a recovery and a really solid year.
30:25 Last year, the Cubs could absolutely use him on their team, and they're not even that high
30:31 in their payroll, and they have a very winnable division.
30:34 And even they are saying, hmm, I think we're good on dishing out a six year, $150 million
30:40 con, however much Cody Bellinger is going to make.
30:44 And it's just such a peculiar place to be at with free agency with these big, big stars.
30:50 I mean, we've seen it to where some of these guys go pretty, pretty decently for far on
30:56 into spring training where they are still unsigned.
30:59 But to have four guys of this caliber still unsigned is just a questionable decision,
31:06 I think, and a real statement about how uncertain and how nervous these MLB owners are about
31:13 the future of their TV contracts.
31:15 I think it's very overblown, and I think it's really annoying.
31:17 And I've said it about a million times that the strategy the Rangers got to get them here
31:22 is spending money on free agents when other teams wouldn't.
31:25 I think not bringing back Montgomery is going away from that strategy.
31:30 If they have that big of concerns about Monty holding up for the long term, which I think
31:35 are overblown, it might end up looking like a bad deal on the back half of the contract.
31:38 But that's basically every free agent deal.
31:41 That's how they work.
31:42 Some of them are not going to hit.
31:45 Having both of your biggest contracts in Simeon and Seager, well, I guess DeGrom was a little
31:52 bit more than Simeon, but having your two biggest position player free agent contracts,
31:56 basically the only position players you spend big on, both of them work out to a tee, finish
32:00 second and third in MVP voting, only to Shohei Otani doing Shohei Otani things.
32:07 You got to feel pretty good about where you are and that that is a winning strategy.
32:10 They won you the World Series.
32:12 So get on the phone, get a pillow deal done, get a big deal done, get whatever deal done
32:18 before somebody scoops up Jordan Montgomery.
32:21 And if there is, God forbid, an injury to this rotation in spring training, I think
32:26 there's no way this team could avoid going and spending big on Montgomery, whatever the
32:31 tax implications are, whatever the other implications are, because he's still out there.
32:35 So go get this freaking deal done, pillow or otherwise.
32:39 I want my World Series hero back in Arlington.
32:43 That's going to do it for today's show.
32:44 Thank you all so much for listening and subscribing.
32:46 And until next time, don't forget to enjoy World Series champion, Texas Rangers baseball.
32:51 [END]
32:52 1
32:52 [ Silence ]