"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Senin (05/02/2024) dengan Tema Cermati Saham Pilihan: ASII, INDF, Hingga BBTN".
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00:00 Thank you, Mr. Mirza, for joining us again in the MarketBuzz segment.
00:03 We're still with Mr. Gembong Suhwito, who is the Director of Education and Investment at Sahamology.
00:10 Before we continue, we will show you the recommendations of the Sahamology options that we have summarized in the following graphs.
00:18 First, Mr. Mirza, there is Astra International, which is recommended well, with a buying area of 5,275.
00:27 Then there is support at 4,950, there is resistance at 5,600, we will discuss later.
00:33 Then there is Indofood, INKP, BBTN. Mr. Mirza, all of them are recommended for now is to buy.
00:40 Okay, Mr. Gembong, is this more short term or medium or long term?
00:48 Yes, usually if we advise, usually we typically swing trade.
00:55 This swing trade is about 1-2 months or a maximum of 3 months until the financial report is released.
01:03 Why do we look at the four recommendations? Because one is based on valuation.
01:09 The valuation of the four stocks is undervalued fundamentally.
01:13 And the financial report at Q4 will of course be quite good.
01:18 So, the full year for 2023 will be quite good.
01:22 That is the main motivation.
01:25 From a technical point of view, especially from the three stocks, Astra, Indofood, INKP,
01:31 last week there was an appreciation in the form of a significant volume change.
01:37 Okay, ASCE, because there is a significant volume, after a few times ago,
01:42 maybe 7 or 8 days, you continue to experience weakness in a row.
01:47 Okay, ASCE, the levels that need to be discussed, the buying level, what position do you think?
01:52 Okay, if we talk about Astra International, the buying position is in the range of 5,275 to 5,300.
02:01 And with the target resistance at 5,600 to 5,700.
02:07 Cut loss below 4,950, right?
02:10 Yes, that's right.
02:12 Okay, what patterns are forming at the moment? And right now it's still at 5,325,
02:17 at the closing of last weekend before the opening this morning.
02:20 A little above the level you gave us to buy.
02:24 Should we hold on first? And what patterns are forming technically?
02:29 Yes, technically, of course, it's a reversal.
02:31 Then it has moved its price above the moving average, whether it's 7 or 20.
02:37 This is an early trend, we're talking about an early trend up.
02:40 So technically it's quite in line with the current area at 5,275,
02:46 5,275 to 5,300 with a target,
02:50 up to at least if we talk about the short term at 5,500.
02:54 If the mid-term swing after the financial report is released,
02:58 it will of course be good.
03:00 The Astra report will be very good.
03:02 Well, that's at the level of 5,700 to 5,800.
03:06 Okay, that's it for the Astra International recommendation.
03:10 There is a reversal pattern, which has been more detailed by Mr. Gembong.
03:14 Next is Indofood.
03:15 Indofood, if we look at it, actually the price is a bit red.
03:20 But the net buy last month reached 14.53 billion rupiah.
03:26 Then last week 44.8 billion rupiah, a bit thin.
03:32 So what's interesting about Indofood, why not the ICBP?
03:36 Okay, in terms of groups, if we talk about the sector,
03:40 the sector related to 2024 is of course the consumer sector.
03:44 There are two things, first in the Indofood group there are two, ICBP and INDF.
03:49 Why am I more interested in INDF?
03:51 Because one, in terms of valuation, fundamentally, Indofood is cheaper.
03:57 With the movement of, for example, Paragama PBV, the PBV is less than at least 0.6 to 0.7.
04:04 That's from the first place, from the fundamental side.
04:07 From the financial report side, of course this will be a hit in 2023.
04:11 Automatically, the performance is fundamentally good.
04:15 Technically, in Indofood there is an interesting pattern in the last six months,
04:21 where the strong support at 6,200, 6,150 did not break through.
04:26 Every time the support did not break through, usually it will reversal to 6,500 to 6,600.
04:35 But typically this is a stock that is slow in movement.
04:40 Okay, this is more of a slow moving stock.
04:43 Why not ICBP? ICBP's performance is green, maybe faster than Indofood.
04:49 Okay, in terms of valuation, Indofood is cheaper.
04:53 In terms of price action, we usually prefer to respect the typical stock,
05:00 the price is close to the support.
05:05 No support, then consolidation, just wait for the rise.
05:09 Once there is inflow, it will rise quickly.
05:12 It will be different from ICBP.
05:14 ICBP is now at 11,700, 11,800, areas that are sideways but are sideways resistant.
05:21 This has to break out, technically.
05:24 But fundamentally it is more interesting than the one we have.
05:27 Okay, so the range for the gain is thinner in ICBP, and the price is also cheaper in Indofood.
05:34 Okay, can you enter, according to the data we received, 6,375 to 6,400 are areas that are sideways.
05:45 So, at the moment, 6,400 are areas that are sideways, then support is 6,250, resistance is 6,650,
05:54 if it is achieved, it can be 6,700.
05:56 Yes, totally.
05:58 In terms of price action, do you recommend buying?
06:01 Yes, in terms of price action, fundamentally it is more interesting,
06:05 because the relative value of the P/BV is less than 1, 0.7 to 0.8, that is the price action.
06:13 Secondly, in terms of price, yesterday the support test at 7,700 did not break through,
06:20 the support is strong there, and there was a volume spike yesterday,
06:23 a rise of about 5%, to 8,100, 8,125, this will usually continue with a fairly significant increase in volume.
06:35 The next target is resistance at INKP at 8,500 to 8,650.
06:43 Okay, up to 8,650, right?
06:47 Correct.
06:48 Okay, 8,650, but it has to break first at 8,550, support at 7,650, there are levels of buying at 8,500 to 8,100,
06:59 and in the morning at 8,150.
07:02 It has started to break, 8,150.
07:05 Yes, correct.
07:06 The INKP this morning rose by about 0.31% at the opening at 9 o'clock, more than one minute.
07:12 Okay, the last one is BBTN, from so many banks, why BBTN?
07:17 Okay, all from Big Bank we have bought since the end of November,
07:25 and we hold until at least Big Bank releases financial reports, RUPS, and Defident.
07:33 Now, BBTN has not yet released a financial report, when the financial report is released, of course,
07:40 we predict that the work will be better in 2023 than in 2022.
07:44 That's the first.
07:45 The second, from the fundamental side, the valuation is quite interesting, less than 0.8% from the pbv side,
07:55 the pair is also quite low, 6%, so if we talk about valuation based on fundamental, banking,
08:00 this is a banking that includes LQ45 and is cheap.
08:03 The second, from the side, there is an acquisition plan,
08:08 it is possible that in 2024 this is one of the banks, the Sharia Bank, because BBTN will stock split,
08:17 some are conventional, some are Sharia.
08:20 If that happens, it will be the second positive sentiment.
08:23 From the technical side, yesterday BBTN had a touch at 1400, did not reach, then it went down again,
08:30 from 1285, technically, in our opinion, these are areas that are quite interesting.
08:39 Okay, interesting areas for BBTN with the factors that have been discussed earlier by Mr. Gembong,
08:45 1,285 this morning, up 0.39%, but indeed, one last week, the original margin of sale was around 4 trillion rupiah,
08:54 and there is a target for this stock, from Mr. Gembong, at what level can it be repeated?
09:02 Okay, if the target for the short term is around 1,330 to 1,350, that's the short term,
09:11 but if we talk about consensus valuation, it is around the number of 1,450 to 1,500,
09:17 with the work of BBTN.
09:19 Okay, if the stock falls to 1,250, and can it be accumulated at 1,270 to 1,280, in your opinion?
09:26 Correct.
09:27 Okay, we talked to IHSG this morning, the chairman of Jelang released the economic growth data from BPS,
09:36 today we see IHSG, does it look green or still red, Mr. Chairman?
09:42 It looks positive, okay, I corrected it, it turns out that it has fallen, at 9.03, IHSG fell 0.1%,
09:51 it is still thin, 9 points at 7,229, we will discuss in the next segment,
09:56 so stay with us at the marketbust.
09:59 And Mr. Chairman, in response to the economic growth or the economic growth trend today,
10:05 IHSG continues to weaken, Mr. Chairman, it is still thin, 0.07% or 5 points at 7,233,
10:15 and actually this is in line with the Asian stock market that we saw earlier,
10:19 it also opened to weaken, but Asia is quite deep, like Street Time Singapore, then South Korean Cosplay,
10:26 Hang Seng Hong Kong, it opened to fall more than 1%, while only Nikkei is strong,
10:32 but IHSG has not fallen to 0.1%, still 0.05% this morning,
10:39 based on the data at 9.07, West Indonesia time, with the exchange rate of rupiah tend to weaken back 0.43%,
10:48 approaching 15,700, precisely at 15,699.
10:53 And the next stock that will be the Gainers of Pemirsa, among others, is the Brand stock,
10:58 which is monitored to rise 2%, then Film 1.28%, Cuan 2.57%, TPIA almost 2%,
11:07 SMLE, Pemirsa 17.6%, PTRO 6%, PSAB 3%, and ESA almost 2%.
11:16 Top Losers are BBRI, so Axie Profit Taking reached 1.28%, Astra fell again, Pemirsa around 1%,
11:25 Gotu fell 2%, Medco fell 1%, S-Hardware, Pemirsa fell almost 2%, EMTK, or MTech, fell 1.24%,
11:35 and some other stocks, like the data you can see on RTI, and we will talk again with Mr. Gembong.
11:42 Mr. Gembong, IHSG will welcome economic growth, but I want to know,
11:48 from Mr. Gembong, the projection is that our economic growth will still be quite solid,
11:52 many people say that it will still be above 5%,
11:55 but it will be slower for the full year 2023 compared to 2022.
12:01 Yes, that's right, if we talk about the average in 2022, it's around 5.2% to 5.3% for the full year,
12:11 but if we talk about 2023, which has released, the last three quarters, especially in Q3, it's 4.94%,
12:21 so usually if we talk about the full year report, Q4, there will be a spike.
12:27 Why? Because in Q4, the economy, especially from the New Year's side, will be quite significantly affected by consumption.
12:37 Well, in terms of release, today it will probably be above 5.01% to 5.02%,
12:47 which causes the full year movement, our GDP will still be 5%, quite solid,
12:54 but the 5% is 5.01% to 5.04%,
13:01 that's about it for the prediction in the full year 2023.
13:06 It means that compared to 2022, there is a slowdown.
13:11 If so, the direction of the joint stock price index, there are many sentiments,
13:18 if it is released and it turns out that the projection is slightly lower than 2022,
13:25 and if it turns out to be better than 2022, will it give a significant effect?
13:32 Or is it still in the drive of the voters?
13:35 And what else do we know, for this week, there will only be a trade surplus for three days, very short.
13:41 Yes, if we talk about this week, then the movement is in a thin range.
13:45 Even if it goes up, it will not reach the level of 7300.
13:49 Why? Because foreign inflow is still maintained on the part of the big bank.
13:55 There is no significant increase on the part of the big bank.
13:59 It means that the others have not been appreciated, that is from the side of foreign inflow investors.
14:05 Even from the local side, the ProYogo Pangestu group has contributed around 15% to 16% market cap,
14:13 this is the direction tends to correction.
14:16 So there is no significant enough movement of the IASG at the level of the breakthrough in February,
14:23 which is 7300 to 7401, which is the high in January.
14:31 So the market today, this week, is too thin, the movement.
14:37 People will wait and see, especially from next week, who is the candidate, that's what's interesting.
14:43 And who is the winner, is it one period or two periods?
14:48 Remember, when there are two periods, then wait for almost a semester until July 2022.
14:56 It is said that in August, if there are two rounds, after February, it will be August again, it's a bit long.
15:07 Okay, one more tip or recommendation before we end, just briefly, or is there something that must be avoided first?
15:15 What is it like, Mr. Gembong?
15:16 If personally and with the client, almost the majority of this is cash, cash.
15:23 That's the first.
15:24 The second, even if we enter, we enter gradually.
15:29 And we are strong, about 60-70% is the bank sector. That will be the driver in 2024.
15:37 Something like that.
15:38 Why? Because we are still waiting for who will be like this.
15:44 Continue, priority 1, 1 round or 2 rounds is enough for us.
15:48 If you want to confirm, after that, you want to enter if you don't want too big a risk.
15:57 That's it.
15:59 Thank you very much, Mr. Gembong, for sharing the information on this occasion.
16:02 Stay healthy, good luck to you. See you.
16:05 Thank you, Madriska. See you.
16:07 [Music]