Jon and Pete Najarian join forces to discuss and debate their favorite topics, including the hottest stock-specific news and sports! Today: $PLTR, $ATEN, $HELE, and the Twins In the Playoffs
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SportsTranscript
00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - See, I've been doing that 25 times a day.
00:19 (laughing)
00:22 - You're in LA doing that, right?
00:24 You guys are, you're like, I don't even know,
00:28 Wake Martindale or something. (laughing)
00:31 - I need one of those long stick microphones.
00:34 - That would be great. (laughing)
00:36 - Garrett, order one up. (laughing)
00:40 Yeah, I'm out here at the LD Micro Conference, folks.
00:46 And we tried to shoot it, we did shoot it
00:49 in front of the green screen yesterday,
00:50 but we had so many of these Hollywood bigwigs beat
00:53 that they wanted it shot with some, you know,
00:56 highfalutin 5K cameras or whatever.
01:01 And the file was just too damn big.
01:04 So Mark and I had to do it yesterday
01:06 from this same suite here at the hotel.
01:10 (boing)
01:11 Got about 25 interviews yesterday and a few more today.
01:15 We'll probably get close to 20 again today
01:18 from small cap companies here at the conference.
01:20 But that's not why you tuned in, is it?
01:23 (laughing)
01:25 - Here we go.
01:26 - Have Pete give you some insights
01:28 into a whole bunch of stocks.
01:29 And we're gonna discuss that starting with the macro minute.
01:34 I don't know that we have intro music or anything else
01:37 for the macro minute like we do for Fantastic Futures,
01:41 but the ouster of Kevin McCarthy
01:44 as the Speaker of the House in the US,
01:48 that initially caused markets
01:50 to sort of back up a little bit, Pete.
01:54 And we were down pretty good in the pre.
01:57 We saw a big jump in the VIX.
02:01 It went all the way to 21,
02:02 but quickly recovered like that.
02:05 And now we're basically hovering around 19.
02:09 - Yeah, I'll tell you my macro side of things, John,
02:11 is just the sheer velocity of movement that we are getting.
02:14 And you take your pick where you want that movement to be.
02:17 Is it in crude oil?
02:18 You got velocity there.
02:19 You got it in the volatility index,
02:21 which went from the 12s all the way up,
02:23 as you mentioned, near right around that 21 level.
02:26 So, you know, we're getting moves,
02:28 the two year, the five year, the 10 year, the 30 year.
02:31 You take your pick right now.
02:33 The velocity of these moves
02:35 is something that we hadn't seen in quite some time.
02:38 And so from a macro perspective,
02:41 you don't normally see that.
02:42 That's why I'm focusing on that right now.
02:45 - Yeah, and in fact,
02:47 that's exactly for our Fantastic Futures segment.
02:52 - Fantastic Futures.
02:54 - Yeah, the markets are worried
02:59 that maybe the next voted in Speaker of the House,
03:04 because there's a temporary one right now,
03:06 but the next Speaker of the House might be somebody
03:10 with a little less cooperation
03:13 with just higher government spending,
03:15 and thus might push us towards that government shutdown.
03:19 That's why the VIX made that spike peak.
03:21 So we've come off of there,
03:23 which I guess means there's not quite as much fear
03:25 of that right now.
03:26 - Right, not quite as much.
03:29 But the one thing that's been fearful,
03:31 and it's moving around, as I mentioned,
03:32 is take a look, John, at that 30 year treasury.
03:36 If you just go back to July
03:37 and you look at the 30 year treasury,
03:38 it was trading at a 386.
03:40 Now it's somewhere very close, if not over 5%.
03:43 So that's one.
03:45 And then just right back to the 10 year,
03:46 which in July was 385.
03:49 It hit just about what?
03:50 480 something today?
03:52 So we are seeing those moves.
03:54 I think we gotta pay attention to those.
03:57 It doesn't mean everything is gonna be down or stay down.
04:00 We were down earlier.
04:02 We've bounced back.
04:02 We could very easily go further to the upside
04:05 or pull back once again.
04:07 But the whole idea here right now
04:08 is we've got some volatility,
04:10 we got a big velocity,
04:12 and keep an eye on that two year, the 10 year,
04:14 all those things.
04:15 It really is something of amazement right now.
04:18 And certainly that is what the markets are tied to.
04:21 That's what the algorithms are tied to right now.
04:24 - Yeah, the algorithms are doing most of the trading, folks.
04:28 And that's why these moves happen at speed of light,
04:31 because pretty much that's the way the algorithms work.
04:35 All right, Pete, let's dive into Helen of Troy, H-E-L-E.
04:40 Right from the get go, it was down today.
04:43 And it was down because even though they beat
04:47 on the bottom line number, that is the profit number,
04:50 they are not exactly saying that the consumer
04:54 who buys their beauty products and so forth
04:58 is doing really well.
05:00 The consumer is in fact stretched.
05:02 Yet again, we're hearing it from a big company.
05:06 And that is why the stock is down about 8% right now.
05:10 - And here's the problem, John.
05:12 So they're beating on earnings,
05:14 but they're going down on earnings.
05:16 If you look out a year ago, those earnings were 227.
05:19 Today we give up 174.
05:22 So they beat, great,
05:23 but they've obviously adjusted down significantly.
05:26 And that's a problem.
05:27 Revenue also down, that's down about 6%.
05:30 There's a lot of different issues
05:31 that you could point to right now.
05:33 That's why the stock has gone well off
05:35 of those 52-week highs, 143.
05:37 Today, trading a lot closer to 104.
05:40 Is the PE good?
05:41 Yeah, it's great.
05:42 Is the free cash flow good?
05:43 Yeah, that looks pretty damn good as well.
05:45 But you've got to have that revenue and you need growth.
05:47 You've got to have the earnings.
05:49 You need growth.
05:50 They're beating, but the problem is
05:52 they're beating off of a lower number, John.
05:54 And until that changes,
05:56 this is a stock that's in a little bit of a tumble right now
05:59 and I don't think you need to get in front of it
06:01 and try to grab it because until they can show us
06:04 they're gonna be able to make more money
06:06 than they are right now, that's gonna be a problem.
06:08 And I'd say you stay away.
06:10 - Well, the adjusted EBITDA margins, Pete, are down.
06:14 And the adjusted operating margins are down.
06:18 So in other words, that profitability is shrinking as well
06:22 to Pete's point.
06:24 They're not earning as much as they earned last year
06:26 on a total dollar value and their margins are shrinking.
06:30 So there's a problem going on at H-E-L-E.
06:34 How about A10, Pete?
06:36 This one, A10 Networks,
06:38 they're networking solutions for all over the US,
06:42 Japan, Asia, and so forth.
06:45 They are down 29% right now.
06:49 And they said also,
06:51 and we're not trying to be doomsdayers here, folks.
06:54 We're telling you, I'll quote it verbatim
06:57 what the CEO said.
06:59 "The industry headwinds are,
07:01 as discussed on our previous earnings calls,
07:04 impacted our results in the third quarter.
07:07 Third quarter, we experienced delays
07:09 related to North American service providers
07:12 and," this is the key,
07:14 "customers pushing out capital expenditures."
07:17 The more we hear this, Pete,
07:18 the more I worry that the Fed has already gone too far
07:22 and they might make two more moves this year.
07:26 - Yeah, that's the scary part of the Fed.
07:27 But you took away exactly what I thought
07:31 was the most important line when they said
07:32 the customers are pushing out that CapEx.
07:35 That's a problem, obviously, for A10.
07:37 The one positive that you can take away,
07:40 because we hate to be so negative about things.
07:43 The stock is at a 52-week low, as you mentioned.
07:45 It was $10, and its high was very close to that $20 range.
07:49 So between 10 and 20, new 52-week lows today.
07:52 But I'll tell you what,
07:53 it's tough to find anything that you're encouraged by.
07:56 However, cybersecurity is an area
07:59 that I think people just know they have to have, John.
08:02 And this is something that is provided here.
08:05 So I think from that perspective,
08:07 that could be something that could be a catalyst
08:10 to try to get them through this whole thing, if nothing else.
08:12 But they've got plenty of problems here.
08:14 There's a good reason why it's at the 52-week lows.
08:17 As you said, the customers just aren't paying.
08:20 And if they're not willing to do it yet,
08:22 we've gotta wait, and that's something
08:24 that nobody ever likes to hear.
08:26 Oh, just wait, we'll push it out a little ways,
08:28 and then you can get in.
08:29 Well, when that happens,
08:31 that's when people turn their heads and they say,
08:32 you know what, there's gotta be something somewhere else.
08:35 But do keep an eye on that cybersecurity side of things.
08:38 If that starts to rally up a little bit for 'em,
08:40 that is something that could be a bit of a lifesaver.
08:44 - I agree, and there's always somebody trying to mess with
08:48 or hack into various high-tech systems.
08:52 And that's one of the things they address, Pete.
08:54 All right, Cal-Main Foods, C-A-L-M.
08:58 I'm guessing that investors in this egg company
09:02 aren't all that calm right now, Pete.
09:05 These guys, they usually make a pretty good buck.
09:09 They reported 2 cents versus $2.57 a year ago.
09:14 So that's not 2 cents versus what was predicted.
09:19 It's 2 cents versus what they did a year ago, 2.57.
09:23 That ain't good, Pete.
09:25 They sell an awful lot of eggs, but as they say,
09:28 you gotta break a few eggs to make an omelet.
09:31 (laughing)
09:33 - I like that.
09:34 Well, it hit 52-week lows today.
09:36 It was just off of it last I looked.
09:38 I think it hit 42.
09:39 It's now about 44.
09:40 Stock was getting hammered pretty good, John,
09:42 for all the right reasons.
09:43 They just, they have not given
09:45 or delivered the way they need to,
09:47 and that certainly is a major problem.
09:50 They blame some of it on, and it's understandable,
09:52 input costs, but why wasn't that factored in?
09:55 It seems like they had everything factored in
09:58 in the right way until they delivered.
10:00 Now all of a sudden, it's like,
10:01 well, we had an issue here.
10:03 We had an issue there.
10:05 Their feed cost is still uncertain for them.
10:08 That's a problem.
10:09 You'd think that that would be something
10:10 where you're buying out into the future.
10:12 You'd have a pretty good vision
10:14 to where that's going to be
10:15 and how you're going to be able to do that
10:17 as you're maybe bringing down those prices,
10:20 which is what they talked about,
10:21 and that's the big issue.
10:23 They have not been very transparent.
10:25 The transparency, at least from their perspective,
10:27 from our perspective as customers is not so good,
10:31 and I think that's a problem.
10:32 If they're that bad,
10:35 then you don't want to be in this stock,
10:36 and I think that's my takeaway right now
10:39 because they talked about some of these things,
10:41 but they didn't give you enough,
10:43 and that's why they missed by so much.
10:45 - Yeah, it's an issue when something
10:50 that you would think you could hedge most of your exposure
10:54 out by using the product's futures primarily
10:58 that would allow you to price out things
11:01 like that feed that Pete spoke of,
11:03 but apparently if they are hedging,
11:06 they're not doing it very well.
11:07 (Pete laughs)
11:08 All right, let's talk about Palantir.
11:11 P-L-T-R, Palantir down about 6%,
11:16 then climbing back a little bit, Pete.
11:19 I'm sorry, up about six.
11:20 I apologize, folks.
11:21 Up about six, and then kind of giving up some of that
11:25 even though it looked like Palantir
11:28 was seeing some pretty robust buying in the pre-market,
11:32 Pete, it kind of ebbed off,
11:35 but it's still holding on now to, I see,
11:37 a 4.5% rally.
11:40 That's not so bad.
11:41 It's just shy of 16 at about 15.60 or so.
11:45 What do you think of this one
11:47 after the results that they reported, Pete?
11:49 - Yeah, I'm pretty encouraged by it, John.
11:51 I mean, we're talking about efficiency here.
11:53 We're talking about AI.
11:54 We're talking about securing the contracts
11:57 in the healthcare industry.
11:59 By the way, what do they do?
12:01 Well, they have an annual spend of about $4 trillion,
12:04 so that's not so bad.
12:05 So if they can get squeezed into there
12:07 and get any kind of a percentage out of that number, John,
12:10 I think that could be pretty damn good.
12:12 The shorts are in this stock, 7% to 8%,
12:15 not as much as it once was,
12:16 but still there's decent shorts out there,
12:18 great free cash flow.
12:19 So when you look at the balance sheet,
12:21 you're very encouraged,
12:23 and I think this is a great move for them.
12:25 If they can secure a few more things
12:27 in the healthcare world,
12:29 knowing the fact that that spend is out there,
12:31 I think this could be huge for them.
12:33 And obviously with the help of AI,
12:35 this just creates nothing but the efficiencies
12:38 that everybody is looking for.
12:40 I'm encouraged by this one.
12:41 I would say, despite the fact that it's already up,
12:44 I think this is a stock that has a little bit more room,
12:46 maybe even to test those 52-week highs.
12:49 Not next week, not next month,
12:51 but sometime maybe before the end of the year.
12:53 - Yep, that UK health data
12:55 that Pete's talking about, $4 trillion.
12:57 Their contract, Pete, is estimated by some,
13:02 if they get it, of at least $600 million.
13:06 So they're trying to rein in the costs,
13:10 and Palantir is one of those companies
13:13 that can go through those numbers like that,
13:15 especially with AI now.
13:18 All right, let's talk about baseball.
13:20 And I know you wanna talk about twins baseball, Pete,
13:23 because your Twinkies are on a roll.
13:26 - Well, the twins are on a roll
13:28 for the first time in a long time, John.
13:30 They had an 18-game postseason losing streak.
13:34 How about that?
13:35 I mean, that's pretty awful.
13:37 And part of it is they always seem
13:38 to draw the New York Yankees,
13:40 and the Yankees would take 'em out, right?
13:42 I mean, so they'd get there,
13:44 but they're going against one of the very best.
13:46 Well, not this go-around.
13:48 They didn't have the Yankees.
13:49 They got Toronto, and they took care of Toronto yesterday.
13:52 That's the best of three.
13:53 They got it again tonight.
13:55 They're gonna be going after it,
13:56 but it's almost worth focusing on two people.
13:59 One of them is Rob Manford, and why do I say that?
14:02 Well, he's the commissioner of baseball.
14:04 He did the right thing, John, at the beginning of the year.
14:06 You and I talked about this.
14:08 We said this pitch clock is genius
14:11 because you are losing an audience.
14:13 People are not excited about baseball any longer.
14:16 You might be a purist and don't like it,
14:18 but you know who does like it?
14:20 Everybody who's now joined in to watch it,
14:22 and the younger crowd.
14:23 They're looking at that 18 to 24 category.
14:27 They're getting it.
14:27 They are getting people back into baseball.
14:30 People are excited.
14:31 Games aren't going on forever.
14:33 So Rob Manford doing the right thing.
14:35 Probably the only commissioner I'd commend right now.
14:38 I think when you look around and you look at the NFL,
14:40 not a chance.
14:41 You look at some of the other sports,
14:43 specifically the NBA, no way.
14:45 They allow them to do the load management
14:47 and all the crap that they pull,
14:49 and it's awful, and we all know it.
14:50 But the other name I want to bring up
14:53 is a guy named Roy--
14:54 excuse me, I said his name--
14:56 Royce Lewis.
14:58 Royce is a stud, John.
15:00 You and I, I think, might have covered this.
15:02 I know I did it on the sports show we did, but he's local.
15:05 He's a Minnesota guy.
15:06 Well, as far as he drafted in 2017, first pick in the draft.
15:10 Let me tell you, he had so many different ways
15:14 that he's contributed to this team this year with home runs.
15:18 But not only just home runs, John.
15:20 This guy's hitting home runs when he's got guys on base.
15:23 He's got a guy on first, a guy on second, guy on third.
15:26 Grant Slams, he only had four of them, four of them
15:29 within a week and a half span.
15:31 And then yesterday, two home runs just to lock up this thing
15:36 and make sure that they took care of Toronto.
15:38 So hats off to him, hats off to the twins.
15:41 Is there anything in baseball that you're
15:43 looking for as we get into the playoffs, John?
15:45 Because I think it's a lot of fun,
15:47 and it's going to be great to see where it all stands.
15:51 We talked about some of the big payrolls, some of the no pay
15:54 girls, and all the rest of it.
15:56 You know what?
15:57 You've got Tampa in it.
15:58 They got beat yesterday.
15:59 You also got Baltimore.
16:00 We're talking about guys that are somewhere
16:02 at the very bottom of the payroll structure,
16:05 but they're in the playoffs, and they're doing pretty well.
16:08 Yeah, well, Phillies, Pete, no real surprise there,
16:12 because this team has been doing well for quite a while.
16:16 But the Phillies won yesterday, Diamondbacks won,
16:19 your Twinkies won, and the Rangers.
16:22 And the Texas Rangers, if you remember
16:25 beginning of the season, Pete, when you and I were
16:27 talking about it, they were on an absolute roll.
16:30 Well, but they had to get into the wild card
16:32 to make it into the playoffs.
16:34 So obviously, they had some swoons in the middle.
16:37 If they go back to playing the way
16:38 they played in the first few months of the season, Pete,
16:42 that's a team to watch for sure.
16:45 And I'm not taking anything away from your twins.
16:47 I think that's a great team too.
16:49 But I think the Rangers are one to watch here.
16:52 I don't disagree with you.
16:54 I think those guys are pretty awesome.
16:55 How about a little bit of NFL, John?
16:57 When we're looking at the NFL right now,
16:59 I think there are good teams.
17:01 I think there are some pretty bad teams.
17:03 And what I mean by that is some of the surprises out there.
17:08 I look at the Baltimore Ravens.
17:10 Now going in, I think people were excited to some degree,
17:13 obviously.
17:14 You got Lamar Jackson.
17:15 You should be excited.
17:17 But it didn't seem like they were
17:18 one of the teams in the AFC anybody was talking about.
17:21 They talk about Kansas City.
17:22 They talk about Cincinnati.
17:23 They talk about Buffalo, all those different teams.
17:26 And meanwhile, the Ravens are sitting there at 3 and 1.
17:28 Lamar Jackson is absolutely outrageous.
17:31 Now he is a thrower as well as a runner.
17:35 He leads the team, John, in rushing.
17:37 He's got 220 yards this year.
17:39 It's only averaging like 5 and 1/2 a carry.
17:42 He's only thrown one interception so far.
17:44 But he's also only thrown four touchdowns.
17:46 But nonetheless, he's not getting rid
17:48 of the ball to the wrong team.
17:50 And what he's done so far, I think, has been spectacular.
17:53 So they've got a great defense.
17:55 They got a great offense.
17:57 That's one of those teams.
17:58 And a team that's surprising a little bit to me
18:01 just because of the fact they're 3 and 1 because I don't think
18:03 any of us had high hopes.
18:04 How about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
18:06 I mean, did anybody think Baker Mayfield could
18:09 be the quarterback that would go 3 and 1 against the teams
18:12 that they were lined up against?
18:14 I don't think so.
18:15 So the defense has been there, but the offense has not.
18:18 And they haven't been great on offense.
18:20 But they're not turning over the ball so much.
18:22 And by not doing that, it's giving them a chance.
18:25 That's why they're 3 and 1.
18:26 But those are the good side.
18:28 I think the bad side, the Patriots in Cincinnati.
18:31 Who thought the Patriots were going to be this bad?
18:33 They're terrible, John.
18:34 They absolutely cannot do anything.
18:38 And you wonder, has Belichick overstayed his welcome?
18:42 Should he still be the GM head coach?
18:44 We all like him.
18:45 We all think he's historically one of the better, if not
18:48 the best coaches in all of football.
18:50 But daggone it, they look terrible.
18:52 And Mac Jones has not gotten better.
18:55 He's only gotten worse.
18:56 Cincinnati, I can't figure out what's
18:58 going on with that quarterback either, John.
19:00 Joe Burrow, great quarterback.
19:02 He had a good game, bad game.
19:04 Good game, bad game.
19:05 I mean, it's kind of weird because especially with Cincinnati,
19:10 that's a team that people were talking about
19:12 for the Super Bowl.
19:12 They might take out Kansas City.
19:15 Well, not yet from the way they look so far.
19:20 No.
19:21 And Pete, I'm not even going to talk about the Bears
19:24 except just to say that they suck.
19:27 But if you want to see Justin Okwupin laid down,
19:33 I think the Panthers at the Detroit Lions, Pete, oh my god.
19:39 The Panthers are terrible.
19:41 They might be worse than the Bears.
19:43 They're certainly near the bottom of the barrel.
19:46 And they're going up against a really fired up Lions team.
19:51 Now, some people might say, yeah,
19:53 but they could look past them.
19:54 I don't think they're going to be looking past them.
19:57 I don't think Campbell looks past anybody, Pete.
20:00 So that would be one that I--
20:02 I'm not saying you take the over,
20:03 but I'm saying you take the spread.
20:05 You take the Lions and give the points.
20:08 They're playing at home against a terrible team that
20:11 can't play defense and can't score.
20:14 John, are we on a betting line now?
20:16 [LAUGHTER]
20:19 No, I like that.
20:20 I like that you went there because I totally
20:22 agree with you.
20:22 I like-- going into the season, everybody liked the Lions.
20:25 That's why it's not shocking that they're doing well
20:27 because I think we all saw Dan Campbell for the coach
20:31 that he actually is.
20:32 Not just the crazy quotes about biting off
20:35 kneecaps and all that stuff.
20:36 But a guy who's good and he motivates.
20:39 And the players love the guy.
20:41 I think they truly do, John.
20:42 I think they take from him his energy.
20:46 And I'll tell you what.
20:48 You and I both always liked Jared Goff.
20:50 He went into a bit of a hole for a little while,
20:52 but he did go to a Super Bowl.
20:54 And everybody forgets that.
20:55 He's a damn good quarterback.
20:57 So you've got him.
20:58 You've got others.
20:59 You've got great running backs, right?
21:01 I mean, they've done a good job.
21:03 They did a good job drafting.
21:04 They got LaPorta from Iowa.
21:06 They've got a lot of pieces on the offensive side.
21:09 That defense with Hutchinson and the rest
21:12 of that defensive line, linebackers, corners, safeties.
21:16 I think they have really built something.
21:18 And will they get to the Super Bowl this year?
21:21 I have no idea.
21:21 I don't think they're better than San Francisco.
21:23 I don't think they're better than a few other teams
21:25 out there right now.
21:26 But they are definitely a team that no one
21:29 wants to play because they're physical, they're angry,
21:32 and they're out to prove something.
21:34 So I look around at somebody like Carolina.
21:37 I mean, they're as bad as anybody.
21:40 I'd actually say I think the Bears could get them, John.
21:43 I think any kind of--
21:45 I think the Bears got them.
21:46 As bad as the Bears are, the Bears--
21:48 I'll put that spread at like six for the Bears.
21:50 Well, I have to check the schedule, Pete,
21:57 to see if they even play them.
21:59 But at all, that would be a horrible game.
22:03 Thank you for tuning in, folks.
22:05 This has been the Rebel's Edge with Pete Najarian and me.
22:11 And Jared, we appreciate all you're doing, man.
22:14 We will be back with more, bang, at 1 PM tomorrow.
22:19 Tune in for the Rebel's Edge 1 PM Eastern time.
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