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00:00 Announced suddenly on Tuesday, January 18, 2022,
00:02 the project to buy Activision Blizzard Arcing by Microsoft was a huge success.
00:06 At the time of its announcement, we were far from imagining that we were living the beginnings of a very exciting and tiring Fayuton,
00:12 with a lot of ups and downs,
00:14 low prices,
00:14 bloody statements,
00:16 and above all, a ton of information normally kept secret, made public for our great pleasure.
00:20 After more than 17 months of turning around,
00:23 we offer you the 5 elements that we think are the most important to remember
00:26 in relation to everything we have learned from this case opposing Microsoft, Sony and the main regulators.
00:31 Let's go, let's go, let's go friends!
00:32 Whether we like it or not, the expression "the famous war between the manufacturers" is not over.
00:41 So I can already hear you say behind your screen,
00:43 "No, but Karnby, you're very nice, but you don't have to come out of Saint-Cyr to know that, of course,
00:47 the greats of video games are fighting a battle since they are competitors."
00:51 Of course, you're right,
00:52 but we must also recognize that before this purchase story,
00:55 the tone between Sony and Microsoft was not the same.
00:57 We still remember the PlayStation games openly cited and praised
01:01 in a video broadcast on the official Xbox Twitter before E3 2014,
01:05 or the image of the three representatives of the three brands,
01:07 "Bratu Bratu" at the Game Award 2018.
01:09 The regulator's investigation revealed a completely different face of the industry leaders.
01:13 If you regularly come to JV, you have necessarily followed the muscular juts between the two mastodons about this case,
01:19 the often hoarse exchanges that we are not used to seeing at a time when communication is smooth.
01:23 We saw Jim Ryan, the PlayStation boss, accuse Phil Spencer of washing his family bathroom
01:28 and to qualify Microsoft's request for documents as "obvious harassment".
01:31 The tone is regularly raised between the various actors in this case.
01:34 Activision has officially shown itself to be exceeded by the attitude of the Japanese giant,
01:38 whether through the messages of Lulu Cheng-Meservey,
01:41 Vice President Executive of General Affairs and Director of Activision Blizzard Communications,
01:45 or by the interventions of Bobby Kotick, the editor's boss.
01:48 We also witnessed more or less secret meetings with regulatory agencies
01:52 and stunning revelations, such as the fact that Jim Ryan did not agree with Microsoft for Call of Duty,
01:58 since he simply wanted the regulators and Bayou Inter to ban the merger,
02:01 the fact that Matt Booty mentioned the idea of eliminating Sony,
02:04 or the fact that Jim Ryan wrote that Microsoft would have done better to announce an electric car
02:08 rather than buy Activision.
02:10 Not bad.
02:10 He also stated that the publishers did not appreciate the Game Pass because it devalued their game.
02:14 I think we should go back to the launch of the first Xbox
02:16 and to Peter Moore's sentences during the Xbox 360 period
02:19 to find such animosity between Xbox and PlayStation.
02:22 Personally, I find that the biggest revelation in the trial that recently opposed the FTC,
02:26 the American regulator, to Microsoft,
02:28 rests on the goal of making Xbox the leader of the industry.
02:31 Yes, the former student at the bottom of the class wants to become the first to be fired.
02:35 It is written in black and white in a confidential presentation from last year,
02:38 Xbox aims to become the leader of the industry in terms of turnover generated in 2030,
02:43 doubling its turnover during this period.
02:46 I find that this sentence swept away a lot of ideas received on Microsoft in recent years.
02:51 No, the American group does not intend to leave gaming,
02:54 contrary to what we read too often.
02:55 On the contrary, it intends to become the most influential player in the industry in 7 years.
03:00 This means that by 2030, the company co-founded by Bill Gates
03:03 will have to go from $16 billion generated to $32 billion in revenue.
03:07 Of course, the integration of Activision Blizzard, in case of validation,
03:10 will help the brand to catch up with the publisher's revenue,
03:14 which is owed to Call of Duty, at $8.5 billion.
03:17 However, even by adding Activision's revenues,
03:19 a little more than $7 billion is still missing to reach the $32 billion target.
03:23 Where to find them? Easy!
03:25 By accelerating the adoption of Game Pass for PC and mobile players,
03:28 but also by continuing the purchases.
03:30 I'm not the one who says it, but it's up to Nadella, the CEO of Microsoft.
03:33 We know that Microsoft has very seriously thought about buying Square Enix,
03:36 but also Sega over the past few years.
03:38 As Phil Spencer has already stated, its competitors are not only Nintendo and Sony,
03:43 but especially the other GAFA.
03:44 In a document, we can read this statement from Microsoft.
03:47 I quote, "Other major Microsoft competitors, Google, Tencent, Amazon,
03:52 also perceive this evolution and are also investing in subscription services and the cloud.
03:56 The acquisition of Sega would create a sustainable differentiation in this competitive environment.
04:01 We understand that for the Redmond firm,
04:03 securing quality assets before others do is a priority.
04:07 With a sum of $69 billion on the table,
04:10 this purchase is the most expensive in the history of Microsoft,
04:12 but also the most expensive in the entire video game industry.
04:14 It was therefore normal for this merger to attract regulators.
04:17 What happened in this Microsoft-Activision-Regulator case
04:21 attempts to show that in the future,
04:22 free competition experts will pay more attention to what is happening in the video game industry.
04:26 By showing themselves so greedy,
04:28 the company led by Satya Nadella is actively participating in the consolidation of the market.
04:32 Different blocks are being set up, with Sony being a hugger,
04:35 even though the model has recently shown its limits,
04:37 while Google wants to return to gaming and Amazon has bought the Tomb Raider franchise.
04:41 Everything seems to indicate that in the future, there will be other big purchases
04:44 and that the FTC, the CMA and the European Commission will still have an important role to play.
04:49 After all that has just happened with the Redmond firm,
04:52 would another video game giant be willing to risk paying for the services of another giant in the industry,
04:57 like Take-Two Electronic Arts, if companies were looking to sell?
04:59 After all the fuss about a possible monopoly position that Xbox could have,
05:04 while the American brand is not the leader,
05:06 could we imagine that a group like Sony, the number one manufacturer,
05:10 would try to buy big publishers?
05:12 And there is more.
05:13 In March 2023, American political leaders shared their concerns with the Biden administration.
05:18 Among their collaborators, Sony and its commercial practices in its home country, Japan,
05:23 which would prevent American companies from being competitive with the country of the rising sun.
05:26 According to them, PlayStation would violate the clauses of the digital trade agreement
05:30 concluded in 2019 between the United States and Japan.
05:32 Recently, during the trial opposing the FTC to Microsoft,
05:35 the court was sensitive to the practices of the Japanese company, which, I quote,
05:39 "takes advantage of its power on the market to obtain favorable treatment from third-party developers."
05:43 After attacking Microsoft to prevent the merger,
05:46 Sony could be particularly screwed in the years to come.
05:49 If Microsoft succeeds in getting along with the CMA,
05:52 Phil Spencer's teams will own more than thirty first-party studios,
05:56 even to feed Game Pass and the Xbox ecosystem-related title catalog.
05:59 Among these studios, we find Infinity Ward, Sagehammer, or Triarc,
06:04 teams found behind the episodes of Call of Duty.
06:06 According to data provided by Jim Ryan,
06:08 the Call of Duty franchise would have generated more than $800 million,
06:12 just in the United States, on Sony platforms,
06:14 and $1.5 billion worldwide in 2021.
06:17 If we look at the list unveiled by Sony at the beginning of the year
06:20 showing the most downloaded games on the PlayStation Store in 2022,
06:23 we see that Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 is in first place in the United States.
06:27 In 2021, it was Call of Duty Vanguard that came to mind.
06:30 If the acquisition is made, Microsoft will become one of the most important publishers on the PlayStation.
06:35 It's a bit weird to say that, but it's really the case.
06:37 The image of a PlayStation under a spell,
06:39 fed by the studios belonging to its major competitor,
06:41 is surely not to the liking of the Japanese developer,
06:44 with the threat that one day, in ten years, the tap may close.
06:48 It was said that Microsoft was the least focused on the exclusivities of the three developers,
06:52 probably because Minecraft is still available everywhere,
06:54 despite Mojang's purchase in 2014,
06:56 and that first-party titles like Ori have landed on Switch.
06:59 When Bethesda's purchase was confirmed,
07:01 Phil Spencer promised exclusivities in every case.
07:05 With this door open, many players already imagined
07:08 being able to enjoy most of the Bethesda games on PlayStation, like before.
07:11 Then, boom!
07:12 At its 2021 showcase, Microsoft announced the exclusivity of Starfield and Redfall.
07:17 At the beginning of 2023, Hi-Fi Rush also arrived exclusively on Xbox and PC.
07:22 It's starting to be a lot of exclusivity, isn't it?
07:24 Documents from the trial opposing the FTC to Microsoft
07:27 taught us a little more about this story.
07:29 In an email exchange between Tim Stewart, the financial director of Xbox,
07:33 and Matt Booty, the boss of First Party Studios,
07:35 we can read that all future Bethesda games are now considered
07:38 as Xbox exclusivities, whether they are new licenses or not.
07:41 This proves that Phil Spencer, who decides what can be worn on PlayStation or not,
07:46 is more combative than he seems in the battle against Sony.
07:48 Even if nothing is officially confirmed yet,
07:51 it's clear that the next Doom, Wolfenstein, Evil Within, Fallout and The Elder Scrolls
07:55 will only be released on Xbox and PC.
07:57 The game Indiana Jones currently in development should also be an exclusivity.
08:01 So we saw it, one of the key points of the Activision buyback
08:04 in the battle against the US regulators
08:07 was the potential exclusivity of Call of Duty.
08:09 On this point, Phil Spencer has committed to release the famous franchise
08:12 on about all platforms that exist for the next 10 years,
08:16 whether on PlayStation, Steam or Nintendo Switch.
08:19 The European Commission has stated that even if Microsoft decides
08:22 to withdraw the Activision games from the PlayStation,
08:24 it would not bring serious damage to the competition on the console market.
08:28 Sony could draw from its size, its stockpile of stuffed games
08:31 and its position on the market to counter any attempt to weaken
08:35 its competitive position.
08:38 As for all the other licenses belonging to Activision Blizzard,
08:41 and they are numerous with Diablo, Starcraft, Crash Bandicoot, Spyro,
08:44 Tony Hawk's Pro Skater, Guitar Hero and some old grids
08:47 like Pitfall, Xen or Gun,
08:49 the US giant will have the right to make exclusivities if he wishes,
08:53 in a validated purchase.
08:54 In general, Microsoft is torn between its desire to increase its MAU,
08:57 the famous monthly active users,
09:00 and that of making the Xbox brand shine thanks to exclusivities,
09:03 hoping that players buy Xbox consoles and/or subscribe to Game Pass.
09:07 In any case, the US giant congratulates itself on having a dozen games released
09:10 with communities exceeding 10 million players,
09:13 for a global MAU greater than 150 million players.
09:15 As I said, the worst thing that could happen to the competition
09:18 is that Microsoft finally takes video games seriously.
09:22 At the time we are recording this video,
09:24 the closing date of the merger is set for October 18, 2023,
09:27 although there is a good chance that it will be validated at the end of August.
09:30 And you are more for or against what Microsoft is trying to do with Activision?
09:34 Do not hesitate to tell us in the comments.
09:36 If you want more and more information on the purchase of Activision by Microsoft,
09:41 do not hesitate to read all our articles published on JV.
09:43 Thanks for watching this video, see you soon, bye!
09:46 (whooshing)
09:49 [BLANK_AUDIO]