In a strong endorsement of Operation Sindoor, American urban warfare expert Colonel (Retd) John Spencer praised India’s display of both offensive and defensive dominance. He stated that the operation sent a clear message: India can strike "anywhere in Pakistan, anytime."
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00:00India was able to bomb more than 13 Pakistan Air Force bases, radar stations, command and control
00:07centers, apart from bombing nine terror base camps and headquarters, including the one of
00:13Lashkar-e-Taybait Murid K. and Jaish-e-Muhammad in Bahawalpur. What does this say of India's
00:20dominance in this battle? And of course, the commentary that's followed. Joining me now on
00:26this India Today special broadcast is Colonel John Spencer, a U.S. Army veteran, an analyst and
00:32chair of the Center for Urban Warfare Studies. Colonel Spencer, welcome on India Today. Information
00:40just coming in. 15 Brahmo supersonic cruise missiles were fired at Pakistan military bases, apart from
00:49the targeting of nine terror camps. What does this say of India's intent with the missiles
00:56finding the target?
00:59One, it shows an undeniable military superiority that India was able to launch those missiles
01:04and hit every target, which is no easy task. There's radars, there's interceptors, there's
01:10all kinds of things. But also shows the precision. India was not going, you know, escalating. It
01:17was responding to being attacked both from a terror attack and from the Pakistani military.
01:21So those very specific precision-guided munitions that can hit within three meters,
01:27essentially, was a very big choice to make sure they're hitting what they want, to send
01:32the exact message that they want, which is, we can hit any site in Pakistan that we want,
01:38but we're showing restraint as a sign of strength in establishing a new doctrine, basically.
01:44Explain this new doctrine, in your appreciation, as someone who studies urban warfare very closely,
01:52the action on ground, and what Prime Minister Narendra Modi said about dealing with Pakistan's
01:58state-sponsored terror.
02:00Yeah, it's been really amazing to watch in a short amount of time to basically establish
02:06a new strategic doctrine, which is no easy task. The first part of it was that any terror attack will
02:12be immediately responded to with force. I've been to Mumbai. I've studied the 2008 Mumbai attack.
02:19That's a very different approach, even in Balakot in 2019, to say we will respond with overwhelming,
02:25but precise force to any terror attack. And this is basically establishing a new red line for India
02:32not to seek other means and first respond with military force. But then there are other aspects
02:39to this, which are really important. I mean, the comment about, you know, terrorism and talk.
02:44So terrorism and then we negotiate and seek diplomatic means don't mix, just like blood and water don't
02:50mix. That was a very powerful statement. Then the other aspect was the no nuclear blackmail,
02:55right? So this state sponsorship of many terrorist organizations, especially Laskar,
03:00with the Pakistan ISI train financed and deployed into India to do attacks, that nuclear blackmail
03:09will no longer be the excuse to why people should say that this should be accepted. India is saying
03:14no longer will this reckless, basically nuclear blackmail be the reason that this is allowed to
03:21continue, which I think the entire world should take note of that. Everybody usually steps in
03:26because these are, you know, Pakistan has a nuclear weapon saying, well, look, you got to,
03:30you got to not respond. You have to keep this at a certain level. Absolutely. India need,
03:35and India did do that. It provided immediate responses proportionate to the objective that
03:42they were trying to achieve, but no more nuclear blackmail. Just because you have a nuclear weapon
03:47in the world, let alone if you're a state backer of terrorism, doesn't mean you get to do whatever
03:52you want. But India also showed in order to establish this new doctrine, you have to have
03:58deterrence. India show and validated their military superiority, both offensively. So being able to
04:05hit any site, but also defensively. So Pakistan wasn't able to hit a single site in India, even
04:11though they targeted civilian and military sites, they weren't able to. Yes, that's a very interesting
04:17point to make this. So India was able to establish military superiority, both in offensive operations
04:23and in defensive operations. Now, the choice of targets, you know, because as an academic,
04:30when you study it and in your military appreciation, you're an armed forces veteran, you've served
04:35overseas, you've battled terrorism. You've also been to India after 2611 Mumbai terror attacks. The choice
04:42of targets, Lushtar headquarters, Murid K, Jaish-e-Mohammad, one of the most important facilities
04:48that Masjid Subhanallah, Marka Subhanallah in Bahawalpur. Is that the strongest possible message
04:56to state-sponsored terrorism? We can hit you at your home.
05:01Absolutely. And it's limited, right? So this is where you have, even I've heard in India,
05:07people wanting unlimited goals. Like you got to go, you got to go destroy it. You got to get them
05:11while now is the time. Those specific targets, training camps, infrastructure were directly
05:18attributed to the attack on India. So that's the proportional use of force that is, was very used
05:26to what we call smart power, right? So being able, and then immediately communicate to everyone why
05:33those targets, how they were hit, what they were hit with. That's been a uniqueness to this war as well.
05:39The transparency of the Indian military and government going, this is what we hit. This is
05:45why we hit it. So that it isn't possible then to escalate like Pakistan did by launching military
05:51capabilities. That was, so even in the response, and maybe we'll talk about that, when India then
05:58responded to that attack, it was very tied to the counteraction and the goal being achieved,
06:04the deterrence goal. So anything used to launch those drones, the radar systems, the launching
06:11pads, and then a demonstration of capability, a message. But just as you very rightly pointed out,
06:18Spencer, it was a demonstration of capabilities, you know, that India can target Pakistan, whether
06:24it's in Skardu in Pakistan, occupied Jammu and Kashmir, or in the heart of Pakistan's Punjab province,
06:31you know, take out a radar station at Pasrur, or, you know, very close to Mangla, the radars that
06:38manage their Honki HQ-9P, their air defense system. What does it say of Chinese weapons and system,
06:47the fact that a PL-15 air-to-em missile was found almost intact, 100% intact, perhaps propellant spent,
06:55but no targeted hits. Yeah, it's definitely revealing. War is always the test, right? So you
07:01have war on paper, and you have war in reality. India demonstrated both their investments were
07:07the right ones, and Indian-made products mostly, with some other products. And Pakistan, backed by
07:14Chinese mainly, with a little bit of Turkish capability, showed that their capabilities
07:20weren't what they felt they were. And India was able to destroy any capability and hit any target
07:26it wanted. So there are going to be a lot of rethinking happening here, and there should be. This is a
07:30new India. This is a new doctrine. Pakistan now gets to make decisions. I'm sure it will keep
07:36investing in Chinese technologies that are now shown to be not as capable as they probably were sold
07:42as being. But also, China's untested. Now we have a chance, and this is one of the reasons why
07:48Operation Sindor isn't over, because Pakistan gets to make decisions at this point.
07:54Very interesting. So in your military appreciation, the Chinese air defense system, the Chinese radars,
08:01the Chinese offensive capabilities like the PL-15 Air-2 missile, or the Chinese J-10C fighter jets,
08:08their latest, or the JF-17s, which only, of course, Pakistan uses. In your appreciation,
08:14were they found to be subpar compared to, if I may, India's BrahMos supersonic cruise missile,
08:20going more than three times the speed of sound, slamming into targets, decimating targets,
08:26including the Chinese systems?
08:29Undeniable. And like you said at the beginning of the show, there's satellite imagery showing,
08:32undeniably, that system that was meant to prevent that attack didn't work for you. So that's
08:38undeniable that the Chinese systems were viewed subpar to Indian capabilities. But I also take
08:44that with a bit of hesitation, because now they get to make changes. So it isn't like you'll always
08:51have that superiority. But clearly, India's investments, it's the way you put all this
08:56together, because it's not one magic capability. It's not one magic missile. It takes all kinds of
09:02systems from air, basically coverage, electronic warfare, all of this suite of systems, both
09:08offensive and defensively. India showed and demonstrated overwhelming military superiority
09:13in every aspect of that.
09:15Oh, you're absolutely right. The Harap kamikaze drones, you know, that could slam into a radar,
09:21or the vital assets and vital points. Colonel, there's another aspect I want to draw your attention
09:26to. Was India fighting not just Pakistani terrorists and Pakistani state, their armed
09:32forces in defense of terrorists, but there are intelligence reports that seem to indicate
09:35there were Turkish drone operators. And, you know, the Bayraktar, the TB2, the Yihad drones
09:42operated by Turkish operators. Apparently, the PL-15 and other Chinese systems were operated
09:49via remote, maybe from a third location. What does that indicate about this warfare?
09:55I mean, we've been watching for a long time, and the Turkish TB2 Baraktar has been, since
10:042020, if not before, a big player in this evolution of drone warfare added into a total suite of
10:11capabilities. And this is why I viewed it, it was pretty alarming when I saw the drone swarm
10:18that was sent towards India, because that's a tactic in the modern battlefield as well, is
10:22you start with the drone swarm to overwhelm the air defense systems. And then you follow that on
10:27with missiles, demonstrating this swarm attack. Luckily, that wasn't happening because India's
10:33capabilities were so. The third order and the basically offsetting capability, where you offset
10:40a capability from where your deception is always a part of the game. But what I take conclusively is
10:46they were definitely trying to destroy targets in India and were unable to do that, despite the
10:54tactics that they attempted to use based on their Chinese advisors as well.
10:59Interesting. Chinese advisors telling the Pakistan Army what to do, Pakistan Army unable to deliver.
11:06Future warfare is something we'll talk about. So the manner in which Pakistan has been hit,
11:12there are intelligence reports that seem to indicate they've lost an advanced airborne early
11:18warning and command and control system. They've apparently lost a couple of F-16s. They've lost
11:23some JF-17 fighters. And the damage across air bases from Noor Khan to Sargoda to Jacobabad,
11:33from Skardu to Bholari in Sindh, the Malir controlment radar. Is this perhaps the highest cost imposed
11:41on terror ever? If you were a Pakistani general, if you were Asim Muneer, what would be going through
11:47your mind? Well, I've heard that there's, so one, that was an amazing breakdown and you could do my
11:53job for me. I've heard that there's a lot of instability within the Pakistan military right
11:58now because of this. It's embarrassing that all your work showed not to do what you said it could
12:05do. I think there's a lot of interest to do some rapid changes. This is where the enemy always gets
12:12to vote. The use of the proxy warfare, the investments in these technologies, they're going
12:19to try to do a lot of rapid changes so they think they can get ahead of. And this is why I view all
12:24warfare as asymmetric because you're always trying to find your enemy's weakness and not play to their
12:30strength. So I think there's going to be some leadership changing. There's some instability
12:36there, which is concerning, but also in the technologies of they're going to try to use legacy
12:41systems and build redundancies while they look to see what actually went wrong. How did India do this?
12:47And that's that, you know, kind of classified stuff that we won't be able to see. But this is also a new
12:53type of warfare where everyone can see the results. It's some of the reasons that the disinformation
12:57and Pakistan tried what I'm calling this first to lie tactic, right, where they were lying about how
13:03many Indian systems they downed and all of this stuff. We used to say first to the truth was the
13:09best strategy. Pakistan seemed to try the first to lie, but in the modern battlefield, that's really
13:14hard to do when we have satellite imagery and it's really hard to even lie to your own population.
13:20So all this builds a very concerning, if I was a, I'll never be a Pakistan military leader,
13:26I have a lot of problems right now, a lot of chaos and uncertainty on what the path forward with.
13:32Look, hopefully it's a change in culture as in, I mean, we've had some problematic statements from
13:37even Pakistan generals saying that they, terror is the way forward and this is the advantage.
13:43And that'll take a lot more than just this operation to change, but this should be the start
13:48of it. And this is where I want to see global disavowment of that state-backed terrorism
13:53within the Pakistan almost institutional approach.
13:57And sadly, that doesn't seem to be happening. You've seen statements of Donald Trump and this
14:05almost a 180 degree change from what he'd said in 2019 when he hit out at Pakistan for being a state
14:12sponsor of terror. I mean, considering so many American lives were lost in Afghanistan, you know
14:17that first hand, that was because of Pakistan's military terror network and their double dealing
14:22with the Taliban, with the terrorists. And yet these statements from Donald Trump, you know,
14:28the both isms that he's indulging in.
14:31Yeah. One, I absolutely know. I mean, the fact that Osama bin Laden was found in the Pakistan,
14:36down the street from the Pakistan military academy, the fact that Pakistan gave refuge to the Taliban
14:40every fighting season. They just go to the border support of that activity. Our president is doing a lot
14:49right now. I believe in our new administration absolutely is against terrorism. It's against new
14:57extremist states from getting nuclear weapons. And this is another demonstration of why you don't want
15:01them to be, because they attempt to get away with all this backing of terrorism to try to do bad
15:08things. I believe that he's interested in ensuring that there is an escalation in India and United
15:16States have had a great relationship for a very long time. And I hope that strengthens the two of
15:20the greatest nations on the earth. Oh, absolutely. You know, no two ways about that. When you look at
15:28India battling Pakistan, that nuclear umbrella that Pakistan had that they can continue terror despite
15:34having nukes. Has that nuclear bluff been called out? Or in the times to come, Pakistan may be even more
15:41desperate and try the nuclear blackmail, the nuclear bogeys some way or the other.
15:47I think it's actually been called out and I'll be focusing on, I think this is the major point. And again,
15:53international media not paying attention to this, that that was a giant leap in strategic leadership
15:59to say, look, just because you have a nuclear weapon, you're not going to get away with anything.
16:03And I think it did put Pakistan on notice that all your past activity, even based on historical
16:09presence, no longer will that be allowed just because you have a nuclear weapon. And it's reckless
16:15for you to think that. I think hopefully this changes even in deterrence theory, that it is possible to
16:22respond to this without getting to that area where somebody thinks that it's okay to start talking
16:29about nuclear weapons. That's for survival. And nobody's threatening Pakistan's survival.
16:34The world, India is saying no longer will Pakistan terrorism oriented at India be tolerated. Nobody's
16:41talking about to that point where you'd get to there. I think India has shown a lot of leadership
16:46in dealing with this nuclear blackmail that other countries have tried as well.
16:51According to you, Colonel Spencer, what are key takeaways, key takeaways from Operation Sindhu, the biggest takeaways?
17:02I think the biggest takeaway is that India's investments in its defense systems showed to be worth the money
17:10that they spent. The other takeaway is that India has demonstrated many aspects of warfare that
17:16others could learn from the transparency in the operations, the civil, as in the political leadership
17:23statements immediately, the, the actual restrained, but very deliberate use of force that isn't
17:33escalatory, but in, and not jumping up the escalation ladder. There's the biggest one, of course, but I think
17:40is, is, is just the sheer, cause I deal in war and people have lots of ideals on war. The objective analysis
17:47of this is India showed its superior military capabilities and strategic independence.
17:54Information warfare is an integral part of war, especially going ahead. Is that an area where India
18:02needs to do a lot more because Pakistan's misinformation and disinformation campaign and, uh, your appreciation,
18:08why a section of the Western media, academics and analysts, uh, are unable to accept the truth?
18:19It's, it is, it is a big part of, of modern wars. Uh, I think more than some people recognize,
18:24and this is why I'll be using India's case study as what it takes as a nation to respond and put out
18:31information. You can't respond to information. You have to put out the truth. And that has been the
18:36biggest thing that has helped the world see through Pakistan's lies. I mean, when you have the New York
18:40Times calling out Pakistan's lies, that's pretty impactful because they don't usually do that in my
18:46personal opinion. Uh, but it, do I think that India could have done better in information operation
18:52space? That's a great question. You can always do better, but I think this is a demonstration of
18:57what right looks like just the immediate communication, all the ministers on the same
19:02sheet of music, the military giving exact details, the, the, the, the, the following of the laws of
19:09war, all of that was a immense demonstration, but this is a, you know, a small test. We'll see what
19:16the path going forward, because now there's even more misinformation is coming out about
19:20what will happen and what is the, the, the, the future of this, but it's, it's been interesting.
19:26And I think India's approach even to the Western media, like, why are you keep saying certain
19:32things, whether that's Trump statements or Pakistan statements and thinking there's a balance. I saw
19:37somebody talking about both sides. Look, we need moral clarity. Like there's only one country sending
19:43terrorists into another to do terrorist attacks and it's not India.
19:47Oh, absolutely. Couldn't agree with you more. Um, and, and especially as somebody who's covered
19:53counter-terror operations for over two and a half decades, it's absolutely bizarre, uh, the manner
19:59in which, um, you know, uh, some in the West are unable to accept the truth. You know, even when you
20:05speak of Western publications, uh, if they're accepting the truth, but it's almost as if half-heartedly
20:11because there's so much information in public domain, there's so much transparency in the
20:16battlefield because Balako 2019, they didn't, uh, despite, uh, you know, facts being put out in
20:21public domain, future of warfare, future, uh, of Operation Sindur. You think, you know, with your
20:28experience, uh, looking at urban warfare in Afghanistan and Iraq, uh, and especially Afghanistan,
20:33because Pakistan had a major role there, will Pakistan once again hit back? You know, I covered the
20:39Kargil war of 1999 and even when Pakistan was retreating, uh, defeated, uh, after a ceasefire,
20:45it kind of struck back. Uh, it was beaten back, but it did. And the impression is that even when
20:51they're retreating, there is a counter-attack that they do, uh, SOP, that standard operating
20:55procedure with them. You think it'll happen once again here, either through terrorists or through
20:59their armed forces? Yeah. One, I don't think they're going to give up on their state back of
21:04terrorism, even though this is a strong new doctrine that's been established, uh, but they're
21:09willing to sacrifice terrorists. Um, it is a great question. Uh, I try not to get into forecasting
21:14because I understand how uncertain it is. I personally believe that I don't think they will.
21:20I think this is, this was a very methodical action counter-reaction. Um, and now we've seen
21:28the immediate lies trying to save face within themselves. I see signs of that they're not going to,
21:34but this is why war is more than just military, right? So even India's diplomatic position that
21:39like the induced induced water project is like until you change your behavior, then there's no
21:45reason to have this relationship that they, they want to have a relationship. I personally don't
21:50think there, but you know, we put rational actors and sometimes you have extremists who defy rational
21:55actor. Like there is no, there's a consequence if you do a counter-attack and you think, and that's
22:01what we call deterrence theory. Um, I have a gut feeling that they won't, but I, you know,
22:06even a broken clock can be right twice a day. And I don't want to do that kind of forecasting.
22:11Okay. But, um, you think that costs have been imposed on Pakistan and, you know,
22:16deterrence. India was able to send across that message when 13 air bases and their radars
22:21were targeted from Pakistan occupied Tashmir down to Sindh and as deep as Sargotha.
22:26Absolutely. A cost and a message, right? So there's, there's a dual objective here. You
22:31want to impose the cost for an action, but also send a message of, look, I'm demonstrating
22:36a capability in case you, you miscalculate and want to have a counter attack. So I think
22:41it was both absolutely the cost for both the terror attack and the military attack. And
22:46both times a message saying, look, we can deescalate at this point, but I have a, I'm sending
22:53a message. I can hit you anywhere at any point. And they understand that message and your
22:59appreciation, whatever's followed. Uh, and you've been able to study that since the 10th
23:03of May. I, I absolutely think so. And they, and they also understand that their lies aren't
23:09working based on satellite imagery and intelligence reports and things like that.
23:15Colonel Spencer for joining me here on India today, as always, many thanks. You've been able
23:20to set, uh, you know, the record straight as far as Western appreciation of India's operation
23:27Sindhu is concerned. And because you're a soldier, because you're an academic who's studying urban
23:33warfare, you think this is an operation that, you know, before I let you go, this is an operation
23:39that would be, uh, studied in as response to Islamist terror, global Islamist terror.
23:45Absolutely. And we'll look back at the, at this being a turning point. I think this is a turning
23:51point to at least one nation's backing of terrorism that it, that could be replicated with other
23:57nations. Uh, I absolutely, I will be studying it in more in detail and make sure I articulate the
24:03lessons that should be learned from it. And I think other people are currently in those, in my circles
24:07within, um, national security and professional military education. But I think we'll look back at that.
24:12It was a turning point, especially for India, but also for the approach that nobody globally should
24:18be accepting for terrorism in general. I will let that be the last word for joining me here
24:24on India today. Colonel Spencer, many thanks. Thank you.