The chance may be low, but there is still a chance of tropical development this May. AccuWeather's Geoff Cornish explains how.
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00:00Hurricane season is almost upon us. Officially it runs from June 1st to the end of November.
00:06Thanksgiving sounds like a long ways away from now, but that's the end of it.
00:10And again, the three most active months, typically September and also August and then October in that order.
00:17But overall, sometimes we do see some preseason development.
00:21The last time we had a May storm that was named was back in 2021 with Tropical Storm Anna.
00:27That stayed northeast of Bermuda. But about half of the years among the past 10 or 11 have brought a May storm to the table.
00:34So a little bit of a three-year cycle here without any or three-year string of years.
00:38And it remains to be seen if we'll see any this May before we officially get to June 1st, the first of the official hurricane season.
00:46This area of Central America is often where we see a little bit more disturbances and something that could evolve into what we call a Central American gyre.
00:53And we're not seeing a whole lot of that right now, just a very limited amount of convection.
00:58You can see the trough, the recent front that's causing trouble up into the Gulf Coast.
01:02The western part of that is bringing some pretty decent thunderstorms into the southwestern Gulf.
01:07As that moves farther south, that's going to give us a little bit of a kind of a northwest to southeast push with the flow.
01:13And that may help to ultimately get this circulation going that will help to make some additional thunderstorms come to life over the middle of the month.
01:20It's going to happen slowly and evolve very slowly, but we'll begin to watch additional thunderstorms to form.
01:25So again, if you send something down into this part of Nicaragua or Costa Rica and into the western parts of Honduras,
01:33and that's kind of an influence that will drive a little bit more flow from northwest to southeast,
01:37that could get the wheels turning for this circulation to begin to form.
01:41And overall, we'll begin to look for a more focused area of low pressure, a low chance of that developing.
01:45It's not going to happen soon, but maybe next weekend into the following week,
01:49we could see a low chance for development near the Caribbean.