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00:00Guardians off to a slow start this year, but playing a lot better baseball as of late.
00:05Aaron Nola gets the nod today for the Phils in the fight in Zari Road favorite, minus 126.
00:11That money line price total at seven and a half.
00:14How does this series open up this weekend in the land?
00:18It should be a good one here, too.
00:19Got 30 pitchers on the cards at a minimum of five innings pitched so far in 2025.
00:23And also both of the pitchers on the mound tonight for Cleveland and also the Philadelphia Phillies
00:27don't get looked at too well from the ERA side, but much better sides here on the XFIP side,
00:32which to me is the most important one.
00:33You take a look at Gavin Williams on the season, Ben, 32 innings pitched here, a 5.06 ERA,
00:38which will get you into trouble.
00:39But how about this?
00:40The expected ERA, still a 5.81.
00:42But look at the XFIP number, 3.98, much lower there.
00:46And how about Aaron Nola?
00:47Top five on the card today in XFIP.
00:49He comes into this game with 41 innings pitched and an ERA of 4.61.
00:53But an XFIP number, 3.28.
00:56Very, very nice.
00:57Gavin Williams has struggled with both lefty and righty batters here this season,
01:00but he does have decent K rates.
01:02That's why his ERA is high, but his XFIP is lower.
01:04He's just getting a little bit unlucky with the balls that are in play.
01:07To lefties here, a 172 iso.
01:09To righties, a 190.
01:10So not terribly bad, but certainly a little bit above average.
01:13But also look at the Philadelphia Phillies lineup tonight.
01:15Against right-handed pitching so far in 2025, very good numbers on K percentages
01:20and very good numbers on walk percentages, which also feeds into your weighted on base percentage,
01:25which for the Phillies lineup tonight presents itself very well.
01:2855 degrees, though, in Cleveland today with the wind blowing in from left field at 7 miles per hour.
01:34The Phillies were just down in Tampa and certainly knocking the cover off the base.
01:38One, something they never really do is actually come back in the late innings,
01:42eighth and nine innings, which they did last night.
01:44Extra innings.
01:45So maybe a little bit of a jet lag for them maybe today, heading back to cooler temperatures.
01:49But Aranoli on the opposite side, very good against right-handed batters.
01:52However, does struggle against lefties to the tune, Ben, of a 224 iso power number
01:57and a weighted on base percentage of 348.
01:59You look at that lineup up top, Stephen Kwan always should be in your lineup.
02:03RBI chances, hit chances there, absolutely.
02:05And Schneeman, look at him in the two-hole.
02:0770 at-bats against right-handed pitching this year, Ben.
02:09A 311 iso and a 429 weighted on base percentage.
02:12Not a household name.
02:13This lineup presents itself very well against right-handed pitching.
02:17But we'll see if those cooler temperatures keep that game around that eight price point.
02:21I'll work my way around maybe some options in this game.
02:24The two pitchers decent, two teams decent, no clear advantage.
02:27But it does look like maybe those lefties can crank up against Aranola.