In recent weeks, cracks within the once-dominant Barisan Nasional coalition have widened, as top leaders from MCA say the party's at a crossroads and must chart its own path after more than two years of drift since the last general election. MIC, too, appears increasingly disengaged. As speculation swirls that both parties could abandon Barisan Nasional—and even join the opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional—does the future of Barisan hang in the balance? And what does this moment reveal about the realignment of Malaysian politics? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with James Chin, Professor of Asian Studies at University of Tasmania in Australia, and long-time observer of Malaysian politics.
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00:00Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show
00:15where we want you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day. Now in
00:19recent weeks, cracks within the once-dominant Barisan National Coalition have widened. This
00:26is as top leaders in MCA are saying that the party is at a crossroads and must chart its own path
00:34after more than two years of drift since the last general election. MIC2 appear increasingly
00:42disengaged. Now as speculation swirls that both parties could abandon Barisan National and even
00:49join the opposition coalition Perikatan National, does the future of Barisan hang in the balance?
00:56And what does it mean for the Malaysian political landscape? What does this moment reveal about
01:03possible realignments in the landscape? So joining me now to discuss all of this further
01:09is James Chin who is a professor of Asian Studies at University of Tasmania in Australia and he's a
01:15long-time observer of Malaysian politics. James, welcome to the show. Good to have you in studio
01:20and not online. I want to talk to you about what's happening currently particularly with the Barisan
01:27National Coalition. How would you characterize the state of Barisan National as it is today? Is it a
01:35coalition in transition or is it a coalition in decline? I think it's both. I think it's a coalition
01:42in decline and also a coalition in transition. But I think to be fair to Barisan National, to understand what
01:48is actually happening, you need to look at the whole Barisan National from the time it was founded.
01:53So I think a very short history summary is appropriate. I think a lot of people do not realize that
01:59Barisan actually goes a lot, a lot earlier back to pre-independence day. So it started off as
02:06Malayan Alliance. So Tung Abdel Rahman brought MIC and MCA together and these three became the founders of
02:13the Malayan Alliance. Barisan National actually only came in after the watershed event in 1969 and in 1974,
02:22Tun Razak decided to restructure the entire Malaysian politics and Barisan National only came in in 1974.
02:29So it's 51 years old. That's right. So the sort of Barisan National we see today is actually Tun Razak's
02:35version of the Malayan Alliance. And the Barisan National, people keep forgetting, was widely seen in
02:41the 80s and the 90s and even the 2000s as probably one of the world's most successful coalition in this
02:48region after the PAP. As you know right, all the countries in the region actually had regime change.
02:54The only two countries that did not have regime change was the PAP and the Barisan National in
02:59Malaysia. But of course Malaysia, we had a regime change in 2018. But PAP now is the only party left.
03:06So basically I think Barisan National worked within that very very specific time period in history
03:12from 1974 up to 2018. And it was widely seen as very successful because it was able to manage to do two
03:19things. One was that it was able to create a platform for all the communities in Malaysia. Remember,
03:26we had a very big problem with 69 racial rights. So it was able to create a platform where the minorities
03:32with the Malaysian come together, create a coalition. But not only that, they were able to extend that
03:37model to East Malaysia as well. And people forget that when Barisan was formed, right, initially it was
03:43supposed to be all the parties. So even PAS and DAP were invited. So it's actually quite a fascinating
03:50story. So in terms of the decline, I would say that Barisan declined not because it wasn't working
03:57properly, but because basically a leadership issue. So everything sort of fell apart after the strong
04:04man left the scene, right? We're talking about Tu Mahathai, he left the scene. And after that,
04:09you had people like Razak Najib came in. So Barisan was actually holding quite well until Razak came in
04:20and the 1MDB affair. So if that never happened, I would suspect a lot of people agree with me that
04:25today we'll be still seeing a Barisan government. So Barisan basically fell apart because of
04:30Marte left the scene, the strong man left the scene, and also the rise of Najib Razak and the
04:361MDB corruption case. If these two things did not happen, I would suspect Barisan will still be around.
04:42Okay, well, let's look at the component parties of this coalition. UMNO is still going strong,
04:46but yet MCA and MIC, once were dominant representatives of their communities, have now been reduced to
04:54marginal players within this coalition. What happened there?
04:58So I need to make a short correction. UMNO is actually not a strong party. If you look at the
05:03number of UMNO elected people, right, it has been dropping consistently in the last few general
05:08elections. So UMNO has not been a strong party. It's just the PR machine says it is still a strong party.
05:14Well, it survived. It survived the electoral cycle, even though it's in decline. It's done much
05:20better than its other component party.
05:22Ah, correct. If you compare it to the other component party, yes, it has done much better.
05:26But the decline in UMNO actually started in 2008. So in 2008, people don't realize that UMNO had fallen
05:33from power without the MPs from Sabah and Sarawak, right? If you look at the numbers. So that's the reason
05:39why Najib immediately, when he got into power, right, what are the first things he did? He appointed the
05:44speakers and the deputy speakers from Sabah and Sarawak, and he made Malaysia Day a public holiday. Why did he do that in 2009?
05:50It's because he knew he didn't have the numbers. So UMNO actually, you know, like I said, was in
05:56terminal decline from 2008 onwards. Now, what happened to the other two parties? Basically, in terms of MIC and
06:03MCA, they suffered from this very, very strong perception within their own community. So MCA made it
06:10very clear, we want to represent the Malaysian Chinese and the MIC, we wanted to represent the Malaysian Indians.
06:16So in terms of the community, the Chinese and Indian communities, basically the argument was, you know,
06:22we have backed MIC and MCA, we've given them seats in parliament, not 100% have to share with DAPR, the
06:28opposition party. But we've always made sure that MIC and MCA had some seats in the federal government so
06:35that you can speak on behalf of the community. And we did that since 1974. But what happened is that the so-called
06:43political marginalization of the Chinese and Indians actually increased throughout the Barisan years.
06:49So basically, by 2008, the Chinese decided to wash their hands and say that we're going to try for
06:54different model. We're going to put all our eggs in one basket and that is the DAP basket or the rocket
07:00basket. So there was a fundamental shift in Chinese thinking that, you know, with so many years,
07:06we supported Barisan through MCA, it did not work. And in fact, politically, we were marginalised more
07:13and more. So we decided to go with DAP. So that's the reason why, if you ask most people today, they'll tell
07:18you that the DAP control about 95% of the Chinese votes. The Indian picture is a bit more complicated, but
07:24basically, with the Indian picture, the Indian community also gave up on MIC. Part of the reason why MIC declined was
07:32because MIC for the longest time was under Summit Value, right? And basically, Summit Value shaped the MIC
07:40into his own personal political platform. And when he stepped down, I think it was widely understood that
07:47the Indian community in Malaya were no longer willing to support the MIC anymore. So initially, the Indians
07:55decided to support the DAP. But in the last election, the bulk of the Indian support actually switched to PKR.
08:02The other big thing about the Indian community, which is not widely understood in Malaysia, is that
08:07the Indian community went through a tremendous change. During the industrialisation phase in
08:12Malaysia, right, a lot of the Indians were displaced from the, you know, from the plantation to the urban
08:18areas. And because they were not Bumbutra, they were not given enough support. So a lot of them, you know,
08:23got involved in urban areas, they become part of the new urban slum. So that's the reason why in the last 10
08:29years, right, people always talk about Indian youth, you know, getting involved in gastricism,
08:33and what's all, because of the dislocation in the Indian community. Okay. So that's one thing.
08:38So there's socio-economic factors here at play as well. That's right. So the other big thing that
08:41happened in the Indian community, which also had a big impact on the Indian community, is that
08:45if you look at the most successful segment of the Indian community, it's actually the Sikhs in Malaysia,
08:50right? And if you look at the Sikhs in Malaysia, right, you will know that in the last 20 years,
08:56right, a lot of the young successful Sikhs has actually migrated overseas. You know, if you look
09:02at 30 years ago, right, who are the most successful Sikhs? It's always the Sikhs produce a lot of doctors,
09:08medical doctors, all that sort of thing. If you go around today, they're still there, but they are not
09:12the younger one. These are the people who decide to stay back, but a lot of younger Sikhs have actually
09:16left Malaysia. James, I mean, we've covered the history and we talked about the kind of the
09:21decline and the weaknesses of MCA and MIC. I do want to ask you, there are some people who argue that the
09:28diminished influence and the decline of MCA and MIC is part of a broader rejection of Malaysians against
09:36race-based politics, that this is really Malaysians saying enough of the identity politics. Is that how you
09:42see it? No, Malaysians have not rejected race-based politics. In fact, race-based politics, the new
09:51term they use is identity politics, has actually strengthened. So if you look at past, right,
09:56past has actually strengthened both in 2022 and the six state elections. So past vote has actually gone
10:03out and a lot of the new votes are actually young people, right. So people are playing this,
10:09not only the race thing, in terms of the Malays community, they play race and religion, which is
10:14the Islamic vote and the Malays vote. So in fact, identity politics has in some ways become stronger.
10:20People said it is becoming weaker in the Chinese Indian community. I can tell you, I don't believe
10:26that is happening. I believe in some ways it's also getting stronger in the Indian and the Chinese
10:31community. It's just that you don't see openly because they, what they call it, Malaysians, when we talk
10:37about identity politics, we concentrate too much on political Islam. Because of the Chinese and Indian
10:42side, right, there's less religious element to it. But it doesn't mean that, you know, the race
10:48identity, community identity is less. What are we missing in that, in that, in the public discourse there?
10:54We're not missing anything in the public discourse. You can see clearly, right, if you read the Chinese
10:59papers or you go and keep a track on the Chinese blog, right, they still keep talking about Chinese
11:05issue. If they keep talking about Chinese issue, it means they're not moving away from racial politics.
11:10So even today, right, they still talking. If you talk to the Chinese community, those who are against
11:15ROCCAT, right, what is the number one issue they use against ROCCAT? They'll say that, okay, two things.
11:20ROCCAT is becoming more like MCA, right, MCA 2.0. Second thing they always attack the DAP is that,
11:26you guys talk so much, one of the key promises you make was that if you get into the federal government,
11:31you will arrange for the recognition of UEEC, which is a Chinese identity issue, you know. So this thing
11:37is still play out in the community and it's very, very, I would say impossible to remove the racial
11:44elements because the entire political structure of Malaysia, right, is based on race, religion,
11:51and royalty. But the royalty factor is also making a big comeback. And the royalty factor is making a big
11:57comeback for the very simple reason that the politicians have sort of lost the game.
12:04Okay. But the current coalition, the unity government now, particularly DAP and PKR, the component
12:13parties in this unity government, they are multi-ethnic parties. Could it be argued that there is some
12:20possibility of change away from the traditional Barisan national race-based coalition politics
12:28to a more multi-ethnic, that parties can champion community issues without being a singular,
12:37homogenous race party? You can do that, but to do that, you have to change the fundamental structure of
12:42Malaysian politics. So you can also make a strong argument, like I said, right, before 2018, right,
12:48people saw the Barisan national as a very successful multi-racial government, right? But it was only in
12:54the later part when Mahathir became the super strongman, they put in policies that, you know, you know,
12:59the joke during the later part of the Mahathir administration, the joke among people watching
13:04the government carefully was that they will say the key decisions of the Malaysian government was made at
13:10the Majlis Tertenggi UMNO meeting rather than the cabinet, which means the power will suck out from the
13:16government and push to UMNO. So in terms of the current unity government, yes, it is possible
13:22they can pursue less race-based public policy. But the problem is that our entire political structure
13:30is based on this racial approach. So unless ANOA is willing to change the entire political structure,
13:37we are still going to have this approach. So for example, right, I'll give you a very simple example
13:42of why it's very difficult to change. I'm not saying it can't be changed, I'm just saying it's very
13:46difficult. So if tomorrow ANOA says that, you know, I'm going to have a colour-blind approach to
13:53university in tech, just as a hypothetical, he's saying that, you know, we think that, you know,
13:57everybody deserves education, want to raise human resources, you know, protect Malaysia's
14:04education integrity, we're just going to have meritocracy across the board, right?
14:07What's going to happen to UITM, IIUM, right? So these two, right, they're not part of IPTA.
14:16So how are you going to deal with that? And is he willing to confront all the people who are
14:20supporting UITM? Okay. So institutionally, there are barriers.
14:24Not only barriers, the whole structure since 1974 was built on this race politics.
14:30Right. So talk to me about the current speculation that MCA, MIC are exploring options outside of
14:38Parikata National. I mean, this is purely speculation by political pundits that they could possibly align
14:44with Parikata National. How credible do you think these realignment scenarios are?
14:48These are not rumours, it's actually true. So this thing actually first came from MIC. MIC was the first one who
14:54were very unhappy. So the unhappiness is very simple. So after 2022, after the general elections,
15:01when Anwar put together this Pakatan-led unity government, basically he did a deal with UMNO.
15:09And the problem with UMNO is that when it comes to the spoils of government, UMNO did not include
15:15anybody from MIC and MCA. So they kept quiet because they wanted this government to, you know,
15:21give them a chance to settle down. People keep forgetting now, Anwar did not win the election.
15:26He was given a chance to form the government by the Algon, right? So people understood he was in a
15:32very precarious position. And therefore, MIC and MCA said, we will step back, let this government
15:37stabilize for us. So stability was priority in the first two years.
15:40Yes. But what happened was that they thought that once the government was stable a bit,
15:44then UMNO will champion their interests. And that was supposed to come in the six-state elections.
15:50Right. But UMNO didn't do it. Zahid went out and collected six left and right,
15:55but he only wanted UMNO candidates. He was not willing to push for MCA or MIC candidates.
15:59So is that the basis of the current internal discontent?
16:02Yes. So it started from there. So MIC was the first one to say that, you know,
16:07you asked us to stay back and support you guys, but we got nothing. Basically, we got nothing.
16:12Because previously, right, there were all sorts of reward systems built into the Barisan model,
16:17which is if you don't get a cabinet post, right, then you get position in GLCs, council,
16:21all sorts of stuff. That's right. So they were totally wiped out from that. So now they're saying,
16:25you know, this is three years down the road, right? Since we're getting nothing out of the system,
16:30and we're not represented anywhere on the power structure, right? Then why are we hanging around?
16:35And this has been taken up by the MCA as well. Increasingly, the MCA is also very unhappy,
16:40saying the same thing. There's really no reason for us to hang around. And don't forget,
16:45this thing has popped up before. Two years ago, MCA and MIC also threatened to pull out.
16:50You know, so this is nothing new. This sort of discontent will come back again and again,
16:57until Zahid can cut a deal with MIC and MCA. So that, you know, even though you're not in government,
17:04these are the things that you will get. Okay, so talk to me about whether you think
17:09MCA and MIC actually hold any meaningful electoral value to a coalition. I mean, have their influence
17:18waned so much that actually they're not real serious players when it comes to coalition building,
17:25be it current or in the future? That's a $64,000 question. If you would ask me,
17:29my personal opinion is that they don't hold any more value.
17:32So whether they're they or not, right, it doesn't matter that much in terms of the outcome.
17:36For Barisan National, maybe. But for Perikatan National?
17:40No, no, no. Because it doesn't matter whether it's Perikatan or Barisan. Because in the next
17:45general election, it's widely understood. Unlike the previous one, where BN was fighting
17:51Pakatan and Perikatan, right, Barisan definitely will go with PH this time. So people understand,
17:57when you vote for Pakatan, you're voting for Barisan. When you're voting for Barisan, you're voting for
18:01Pakatan as well. So it really doesn't matter. Like I said, basically, the Chinese community has decided to
18:07put all their ads into the rocket basket. Okay. And they will stay there for at least 20 years.
18:12But you said DAP might turn into MCA 2.0. No, I said that is the accusation. That's the accusation.
18:18That's right. Is there any real concern or merit to this accusation? Any concern that it could happen or be true?
18:25No, you have to understand. The accusation is that they turn the MCA 2.0. So people define MCA, right,
18:32as a party which can no longer assert Chinese interest in the Barisan government. Because,
18:37like I said, Tu Ma Teh became so strong, MCA was totally marginalised. So it is not a question of
18:43whether DAP can push for it. It is a question of how much concession Anwar, whoever the Prime Minister,
18:50gives to Chinese interests. So the way it works in the coalition government is that the DAP has a set,
18:55not demands, but these are our interests. So they got to negotiate their interests with PMX and say,
19:00are you willing to concede this interest to us? So if DAP cannot get concessions for whoever
19:10the government is, so for example, they are part of the government now, and the reason why this
19:15sort of accusation is taken very seriously by the Chinese community and Indian community is because
19:20they're backing up by saying that if you cannot get any concessions, you are worse than
19:25MCA. Why? Because you are the largest party in government.
19:29Right.
19:30And you still cannot push your interests.
19:32So just talk to me about MCA and where you see its future. As you say, if DAP holds the majority
19:41of the Chinese votes and may do so for the foreseeable future, where does that leave MCA?
19:50Does MCA need some real internal transition and regrouping and redefining what they want to do?
19:58Or should this decades-old party with all this rich history die a natural death?
20:06No. MCA has to do deep self-reflection and ask themselves, how do we move forward?
20:13What is the proposition that you need selling things that are selling to the Chinese community?
20:17Right? A lot of people say that, oh, very simple. We made MCA into a multi-racial party.
20:22I can tell you, if they do that right, the party will die tomorrow.
20:25Because it's just a total rebranding. It's not going to work.
20:28Okay.
20:28The question is that, what can the MCA do?
20:30Now, I can tell you, the MCA was very successful previously in terms of its service politics.
20:35MCA was famous for doing service.
20:37Yes.
20:37Now, the problem is that, how do you translate service politics like providing educational opportunity?
20:43Don't forget, Malaysia is the only country in this part of the world where a political party in government,
20:49because their supporters are blocked from government universities, set up their own private universities.
20:54Right? MCA controlled two universities, both in KL and KAMPA, and MIC controlled a university in Kedah, plus the academy.
21:06So, you know, they've always been very good at service.
21:09But the problem is that the service politics they provide, for whatever reason, they'll never be able to translate that service politics into vote.
21:16Really?
21:17Yes.
21:17Okay, even though they were well-known for the community service.
21:21Yes.
21:22Even though, like you said, they're well-known for that, right?
21:25Especially if you're chased by Along, you don't go see UMNO, you go see MCA service center.
21:30But the thing is, even though they're so well-known, but MCA votes keep dropping down last few state elections,
21:35so it has never been able to translate into votes.
21:37Okay. Well, in the time we have left, let's look into your crystal ball, James, and look at the future,
21:44forecasting the road to GE 16.
21:46Do you think Barisan National will still exist as a coalition in G16?
21:52Yes, Barisan National will continue to exist as a coalition for many reasons.
21:58But my take is that no matter how difficult the conversation is between the leaders of MIC, MCA, and UMNO, right?
22:07Deep down inside, MCA and MIC cannot leave Barisan National, because even though they're weak now, right?
22:13If they leave Barisan National, they'll become even weaker and even more irrelevant.
22:19They cannot actually survive outside the Barisan ecosystem.
22:23Okay. Do you see any more fragmentation or any new alliances forming?
22:29Or is the status quo what we'll see moving forward? This is the political landscape, and it's all the same players running at the same time?
22:37No. Political landscape in Malaysia changed very quickly.
22:40So now Anwar has an upper hand, not because he is doing all the right things.
22:46He's holding the upper hand because Besatu is in disarray, right?
22:51On the opposition side, they're in disarray, right?
22:53So on the other side, if they can get an act together and mount a real challenge, then we will see a really interesting next general election.
23:02But like I said, we've got two years down the road.
23:05So for me, right, I feel that what Anwar is doing, playing identity politics, right, he's in a very dangerous position.
23:12Because if you play identity politics, right, you're actually going to help PAS.
23:15PAS is the king of identity politics.
23:18And if you don't believe me, go to TikTok and look at all the influencers who are supporting PAS.
23:24They're very, very good at what they're doing on TikTok, and all of them play identity politics.
23:28My argument for the unity government is that if you want to wing back the middle ground of Malaysia, middle Malaysia,
23:35the way is actually through the economy, not through identity politics.
23:40So when Anwar play identity politics, my own thoughts is that he's actually helping PAS indirectly,
23:46even though he doesn't realise it.
23:48Okay. Is the non-Malay vote largely secure?
23:54The non-Malay vote is secure for a reason which you might not think.
24:00People think that the non-Malay vote is secure because people support DAP and DAP support Anwar.
24:05That's not the reason.
24:06The real reason why the non-Malay vote is secure is because the Chinese have given out on the MCA.
24:13And also in terms of Anwar, right, the Chinese thinking is that if Anwar doesn't get in,
24:19then on the other side we will face PAS, which is impossible for us to live.
24:26Because a lot of it is about perception, right?
24:29They're afraid that if PAS gets in, then we will face all the Islamic restrictions.
24:32Whether true or not, it doesn't matter.
24:34But they're saying that we have a very clear thing.
24:37We have Madani on one side, supported by DAP, which is supposed to protect Chinese or non-Malay interests.
24:44On the other side, if PAS gets in, right, who's going to protect Chinese interests?
24:48Because on the other side, right, they don't have a Chinese party other than Gerakkan, right?
24:52But everybody knows Gerakkan has at most one seat and the Gerakkan leader is very weak.
24:57So if MCA were to make the jump, would that make, would it be a more interesting proposition for non-Malay voters?
25:03My take is that MCA will not leave the Barisan National and even in the worst case,
25:08if MCA leave the coalition, right, they will not jump with Perikatan.
25:12Because if they join Perikatan, right, it means there's two Chinese parties there.
25:16They'll even lose even more influence.
25:18Cannibalize Gerakkan.
25:20Well, I mean, the landscape, as you say, is ever-evolving and can change in a heartbeat.
25:25So thank you so much for giving us a sense of the pulse of the current situation.
25:30I appreciate your time, James. Thank you for your time.
25:32That's all we have for you on this episode of Consider This.
25:35I'm Melissa Idris, signing off for the evening.
25:37Thank you so much for watching and good night.