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00:00Time now for a little Major League Baseball buy or sell on this Tuesday live in person in studio together.
00:07He's Donnie Wright's side. I am Ben Stevens.
00:10Anytime you are joined by one of the hosts of Pro Baseball today, you got to talk a little MLB.
00:15And despite going over at the dish last night, DRS, and a disappointing loss for the Yankees up in the Bronx against the Padres,
00:22Aaron Judge still having a monumental start to this season.
00:26He was the ever-so-slight favorite, battling with Bobby Witt Jr. to close as the AL MVP favorite before this year got started.
00:34Now it's basically a no contest, just over a month in to this 2025 MLB campaign.
00:40Aaron Judge to an American League MVP for the third time in the last four years.
00:45Minus 1,000 to lead the bigs in home runs this year.
00:50Minus 140 to win the Triple Crown.
00:52Plus 145 to have a 400 batting average at the time of the All-Star break.
00:59Plus 850, a couple of new markets opening up.
01:02To have a 400 average the entirety of this MLB season is 41 to 1.
01:09So DRS, the buy or sell question is not which of these bets do you like the most.
01:13But buy or sell.
01:14Aaron Judge is the greatest right-handed hitter in MLB history.
01:19No, well, see, that's false right off the bat, so I'm going to sell that.
01:22Is he an unbelievably talented hitter right now, on pace to do some damage and be a Hall of Famer?
01:27Absolutely he is.
01:28And we just saw him in an MVP market that's basically five to six weeks old.
01:33He's a minus 1,000, which means if he twists his ankle in this two and a half weeks, he can't be the MVP and probably won't have those statistics.
01:39Shows you how talented he is.
01:40And also, what's going on in the American League and why can't anybody press this guy for a minus 1,000 to start?
01:45Let's understand from Aaron Judge what he's doing.
01:47The expectations, again, from a premier power hitter is he is going to take a lot of strikeouts because how do you get power?
01:53Swing with all your might all three times.
01:55He's hitting for average end power, which is astounding, to the point of over 400.
01:59This is something like a Stephen Kwan would do.
02:01Like, hey, man, all I do is hit singles and I'm really fast so I can beat out ground balls in the infield.
02:05That's not Aaron Judge.
02:06What he's doing is crazy.
02:07But also understand this.
02:09You take a look at a guy like, you know, the best right-handed hitters of all time and use a guy like Albert Pujols.
02:13You look at Aaron Judge.
02:14300-plus home runs.
02:15I don't know the exact number.
02:16I had it a little bit up this morning.
02:18Yeah.
02:18703 for Pujols.
02:20703.
02:21You take a look at the RBI market for him.
02:222,200 RBIs.
02:24Like, he's got a long way to go to be the best of all time.
02:27Is he the best right-handed hitter in the game right now?
02:30Yeah, you could probably say that.
02:31But all time, we're getting way ahead of ourselves.
02:33He's got to do this for five, six, seven, eight, nine more years, what he's doing,
02:37to catch some of the great right-handed bats of all time.
02:39Listen, he does have the history, of course, the American League record now, two years ago, three years ago?
02:44When was that, in 2022?
02:472022, when he had 62 home runs.
02:49Of course, the AL record moving past Roger Maris.
02:53But where things stand for Aaron Judge, I would agree with DRS and the long pantheon of baseball.
02:58It has the nostalgia.
03:00It is called America's pastime for a reason.
03:02History is a very tough thing in MLB.
03:05Some notable right-handed hitters, as our producer extraordinaire Joe Frizzo included.
03:10Hank Aaron, of course.
03:11Willie Mays.
03:11Joe DiMaggio.
03:12Albert Pujols.
03:13Roger Hornsby.
03:15I would still say right now Aaron Judge is in the mix, but maybe not the best right-handed hitter.
03:19It's difficult to also talk about at this moment.
03:22And then in terms of some of the markets that you see here, plus 145 to lead the bigs,
03:27to win the Triple Crown this year.
03:28That's the best batting average in Major League Baseball.
03:30Most home runs.
03:31Most RBIs.
03:32Aaron Judge has 11 home runs.
03:34That's tied for second most, alongside Kyle Schwarber, behind Big Dumper over there in Seattle.
03:40Kyle Raleigh, his real nickname.
03:41Don't get mad at me.
03:43Also, second most RBIs.
03:45An RBI behind Teoscar Hernandez for LA, who, of course, is probably going to be on the IL,
03:51exiting yesterday's game early for the Dodgers.
03:53Aaron Judge is going to be in consideration, but he's not even leading two of those three right now at this moment,
03:58trailing by one in both categories.
04:00I do understand, but that's part of how you become the historic-level best right-handed hitter we have ever seen
04:07when you make history time and again.
04:09Also, the 400 average is really fascinating.
04:12Aaron Judge had five consecutive games, DRS, of multiple hits, including Saturday,
04:18hit his 11th home run against the Rays.
04:21In the last two games, including 0 for the dish last night, just one for his last eight.
04:26Still not bad, but his batting average dropped by 18 points in a two-game span.
04:30So to remain around 400 just shows you how difficult that task is.
04:34Yeah, it's almost impossible.
04:35So you take a look at those numbers.
04:36400 for the season, that's not happening, but it's also not a plus 100 price.
04:39It's 41 to 1.
04:41400 plus at the All-Star break, that's not happening either.
04:43That's a plus 850 price.
04:45Triple crown plus 145, certainly within his range, because he could still have a 325 to 330 season,
04:51and that would be tremendous and probably enough to lead maybe Major League Baseball,
04:54if not the American League, in average.
04:56But looking at 400, also understand this.
04:59We're humans here.
04:59We get frustrated.
05:00Sooner or later, pitchers are going to be like, I'm not pitching to the guy.
05:02So if you do the Barry Bonds, you see one pitch a game, you get overzealous at the plate here,
05:07and that'll probably drop your average as well.
05:08He's going to be having a phenomenal season.
05:10I just don't think he's going to be at that 400 mark or any time.
05:13For sure. Historic, winning his third MVP award in the last four years, no doubt.
05:17The greater picture, maybe we'll talk about that a little bit later on.
05:20More on the early lineup next.
05:22We continue MLB by Orsell Brighton early on this Tuesday morning on the early line on Sports Grid.
05:28Let's look at the picture of the National League pennant race as of this moment,
05:32about a month and a half in to this MLB season.
05:35DRS, there is no doubt everybody is trying to catch the LA Dodgers,
05:38both in terms of the standings and the odds board.
05:41LA best record in MLB 24-11 with another victory yesterday against the Miami Marlins.
05:48The Dodgers have won eight of their last nine games for that best mark around the bigs.
05:53But when we compare the opening day odds to where things are right now,
05:56the Dodgers are always going to have that short price.
05:59So we've had the same conversation that we're going to have at this moment
06:02that we had way back in March, back in January, back in all these times
06:07around the reigning World Series champs.
06:09Who can catch LA?
06:11Plus 140 now, the current price on the Dodgers, but still incredibly short.
06:16The move against the Braves, two games below .500 after that 0-7 start.
06:20They're playing better baseball, looking more like the team we expected.
06:24The Phillies backed by a buck as well.
06:26The Mets have seen the move most in their way.
06:297-1 now, plus 490.
06:31And the Cubbies, 22 wins already.
06:338-12 to 1, now plus 850.
06:35But buy or sell, DRS, the question to you.
06:38The Mets are the Dodgers' biggest threat in the National League.
06:41Right now, you could probably say yes, but I'm going to sell that
06:44because I'm going to go season long at this point.
06:46And I told you, like, I like the Mets' lineup.
06:47One through three, it's fantastic.
06:48Got some good hitting pieces there, four through nine.
06:51But if you're looking at the starting lineup,
06:52how do you win typically in the postseason?
06:54Give me that dominant front line starting pitching here
06:57to go toe-to-toe with some of the best bats in Major League Baseball.
06:59I don't know if the Mets' pitchers will be up to the task all summer long.
07:03We're only in the month.
07:03We just started May.
07:05We got May, June, July, August, and September, then into October.
07:08And you're looking at pitchers there.
07:09It's like, okay, let's lean on, you know, back in the day.
07:12Jacob deGrom would be absolutely a dominant front line starter.
07:16Cindergard, like, hey, man, these guys can make it to the World Series
07:18and do some damage.
07:19I'm not saying the Mets won't make the playoffs.
07:21They're a quality team at this point.
07:22And just looking at the FanDuel Sportsbook right now,
07:24plus 490 price to win the National League,
07:26second place only behind the Dodgers.
07:28But then I look at other teams in the same division,
07:30like the Philadelphia Phillies.
07:31You want to have a one-two punch of, let's just say, any one given of.
07:34Aaron Nola gets it together.
07:35He's had some postseason performances.
07:37You take a look at Zach Wheeler,
07:38one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball,
07:40and then coupled by maybe a Christopher Sanchez
07:42or a Ranger Suarez, does get it together.
07:44Same thing, you can take a look here at the Atlanta Braves,
07:46just going over their depth chart.
07:47Chris Sale, who's one of the best pitchers in baseball last year,
07:50with the Cy Young.
07:51You take a look at, you know, Spencer Schwellenbach,
07:53who has had a little bit of a rough run,
07:54but he has that pedigree being a young pitcher
07:56that can be dominant stuff.
07:58Grant Holmes has been decent.
07:59Spencer Strider just goes back to the IL.
08:01He's right by the end of the summer.
08:02I'm trying to line this up by saying,
08:04it's not who is going to catch the Dodgers in the regular season.
08:07That's not the question.
08:08Once you get to the postseason, how can you add up?
08:11And I just think you need dominant starting pitching
08:13to go toe-to-toe.
08:14So for me, I like the Mets,
08:15but I think the Phillies and also the Atlanta Braves,
08:18when they're right, if we're anticipating them to be right,
08:21I think they're going to be the challengers as opposed to the Mets.
08:23And you saw it right there, DRS, in terms of the odds movement.
08:26It's what has made this start for Atlanta that much more concerning
08:29because even with the big acquisition for New York in Juan Soto,
08:33of course, the Phillies kind of have more of that playoff pedigree,
08:35perhaps, than their other contenders around the National League.
08:39But it was the Braves, despite some of the injury issues.
08:42We were awaiting the early returns of Spencer Strider
08:44and Ronald Acuna Jr.
08:45Now Strider on the IL.
08:47Once again, still some questions for Atlanta,
08:49but they had that second-best price only behind Los Angeles.
08:53So the 0-7 start, where we've never seen a team start that poor
08:57to begin a Major League Baseball season and qualify for the postseason,
09:00we're still expecting the Braves to be there.
09:03They would not be there as of this moment.
09:05And there are some other teams in the National League West,
09:07namely the Padres and the Giants,
09:09who are looking the part of a playoff
09:11and maybe even pennant contender around the National League.
09:15Because DRS, in that first graphic that we asked,
09:17neither of the divisional foes for the Dodgers were included,
09:21neither the Padres or the Giants.
09:23So if we were to loop those teams into this fold,
09:27do you think the Padres or the Giants
09:29provide the Dodgers a better push than any of the teams listed?
09:32I mean, you could say they probably know them better
09:33because they're going to get a lot more playing time,
09:35and certainly that's the same division.
09:36But I look at the Padres here,
09:37not as strong a team as they've had in the past couple of years here.
09:40Same thing with the Arizona Diamondbacks,
09:41saying, hey, no, if Zach Allen can get back into form,
09:44maybe he could challenge.
09:45And then you take a look at the San Francisco Giants.
09:46I love Logan Webb.
09:47I love what they've done in the beginning parts of the season.
09:49But how healthy will they be?
09:51And also, still will they be on the same level
09:52that they're hitting now,
09:53that lets you say in the months of June, July, and August?
09:56So it is going to be a tough race out there,
09:57and it's a compact race.
09:59But I'm just looking for the best teams
10:00to take a snipe out of the Dodgers.
10:01Now, granted, at the end of the summer, Ben,
10:03we're talking August, September, October,
10:05you're playing your best baseball.
10:06Maybe the Diamondbacks are red hot at the plate
10:08of the San Francisco Giants that you say,
10:09you know what, we just caught a hot team at the right time.
10:11But you really can't do that and pick and choose and say,
10:13oh, the Phillies usually are fantastic at the end of the season.
10:15We don't know that.
10:16I'm just looking at the starting pitching
10:18or what I've seen in the past couple years,
10:20anticipation of what I'm going to get this year,
10:22and the way you take out the Dodgers.
10:23Because when you're aiming for the Dodgers,
10:25usually it's like, okay, that one through nine is tremendous.
10:27They're going to have the bullpen
10:28and certainly frontline pitching.
10:30If their frontline pitching starts to stagger a little bit,
10:32what's your main advantage now?
10:34Give me a better starting pitcher on a day-to-day basis
10:36than the Dodgers have.
10:37And the Phillies can do that, and so can the Braves.
10:39I'm not sure if the Mets can.
10:40I would agree.
10:41I think from the pitching perspective,
10:42you probably looked at Philadelphia first and foremost.
10:45Aaron Nola maybe not at that upper tier he was
10:47maybe just a few seasons ago,
10:49but at least on paper, one-two punch of Zach Wheeler, Aaron Nola,
10:52probably a little bit more reliable.
10:54It's been what the Mets have done with their starting staff,
10:56though, that has been so tremendous.
10:58Not just Pete Alonso, not just Francisco Lindor,
11:01or even the slow start for Juan Soto DRF.
11:03Their pitching staff right now,
11:05maybe based on name and brand,
11:07not as strong as you would think.
11:09But Clay Holmes, Tyler McGill, Griffin Canning, Kodai Senga,
11:12and David Peterson, everybody in that starting staff.
11:14The worst ERA is Peterson right now with a .306 ERA.
11:19Clay Holmes, .295.
11:20McGill and Canning both at a .25.
11:23And Kodai Senga in his six starts, a .138 ERA.
11:27That's why I think the Mets have been so tremendous,
11:29but you wonder if that is going to drop off,
11:31and that is always what is going to win you more playoff games than most,
11:35having that best top two, top three in your starting staff
11:38in those most critical games.
11:40The Dodgers have that edge at the moment,
11:42but the Mets have certainly kept pace.
11:44San Diego, to me, is the interesting one.
11:46Because I think if you were to ask me right now,
11:48buy or sell, Mets being the best challenger for the Dodgers,
11:51I'd buy that.
11:52But I actually would say the Padres probably have the third best chance.
11:56But the Padres' starting staff is also a little bit interesting.
11:59Our guy, Nick, pitching Pavetta,
12:01pitching outstanding in his start in San Diego.
12:04Michael King has been very stout and solid as well.
12:07Dylan C is trying to find his footing.
12:09But, of course, Joe Musgrove out for the entirety,
12:11more than likely, of the 2025 season,
12:13recovering from Tommy John.
12:15But when you get to the back end of the bullpen,
12:17if the Padres have a lead in a tightly contested playoff game
12:20at this moment, I don't think there's anybody right now, DRS,
12:23in Major League Baseball you are trusting more than Robert Suarez,
12:26who just showed us that last night for the Padres again.
12:3014th save of the season already.
12:31And San Diego's 23 wins in the victory over New York.
12:35No, and also it says something where they're used to that type of playoff
12:37baseball already.
12:38You're going to get into the playoffs.
12:39We're not looking at seven, six games.
12:41We're looking at four to two games, three to two games.
12:43Tight innings and high leverage situations for those pitchers late in the innings.
12:46And also, we're not so much worried about the Padres' offense.
12:49It'll come back.
12:50You know, you have some guys like Jackson Merrill that are still waiting to come
12:52back off the IL who are lighting the world on fire.
12:54I do like that team overall.
12:56But also understand this.
12:57You're looking at a point where you want to take down the Dodgers, too.
12:59The easiest path to take down the Dodgers, have the best record you have.
13:02The Dodgers are going to win that division, which means, Ben,
13:04you're looking at wild card options for anybody out there in the NL West or in the East.
13:08Somebody has to win it.
13:09Somebody might have an easier path, and you try to find that out.
13:12But usually, it's pitching is what wins in September, October, and early November.
13:16And we're just going with those price points right now, which, again, you're right.
13:19Michael King's been fantastic.
13:20If Dylan Seas can find it.
13:21If Nick Pavetta, who's been around Major League Baseball for a couple years,
13:24can stay in it as well.
13:25And Randy Vasquez, one of my favorite fades in Major League Baseball with the high X-5 numbers there.
13:29We'll see if he can just be that fifth starter just to add some innings.
13:31DRS, the team we really have not discussed at this moment, the Chicago Cubs,
13:35who were the favorites to win the National League Central before this year got started, 22-14.
13:40The only team above .500 within that division.
13:43The Cubs is now nearly a $4 favorite to win the NL Central at minus .380.
13:48You just talked about it from that playoff positioning standpoint.
13:50If the Cubs win the division, they're going to host a couple of playoff games at least to start off October.
13:56Can the Cubs provide a test as a true pennant contender?
14:00Are you still a little bit wary?
14:00I'm a little bit leery there because you had Justin Steele start the season.
14:03That's supposed to be your ace here, and then you line him up with Imanaga.
14:05Like, hey, we'll try to play it out.
14:06But now it looks like, again, Imanaga goes to the I.O.
14:09It's Tyone, who's a decent pitcher.
14:10Boyd's a decent pitcher.
14:11Ben Brown, okay.
14:12Colin Ray, Chris Flexin.
14:13It doesn't really bring that, oh, no, we've got to face Tarek Skubel in game number one of a short series like Detroit would have.
14:19So that's sort of the layaway, but they can hit, man.
14:21The Cubbies can hit.
14:23And they are hitting incredibly well right now.
14:25Kyle Tucker, the big all-season acquisition.
14:27And the youngster, Pete Crowe Armstrong, PCA, having himself a start to his MLB career here with the Cubbies.
14:34It's the injury news from Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga that make you a little bit cautious at this moment.
14:39More around MLB up next.
14:41We continue playing our favorite game.
14:43It is buy or sell live right here on this Tuesday on the early line, a Major League Baseball edition.
14:49We've talked Aaron Judge in his chase for history this year, triple crown winner in the American League.
14:54What that would mean is one of the greatest right-handed bats in all of MLB history.
14:59We've talked the Dodgers' biggest challenger in the National League.
15:02Now the other side of this equation, some of the worst teams this year in Major League Baseball.
15:08And there is nobody, DRS, even remotely as bad as the Colorado Rockies.
15:13And that includes the Chicago White Sox, who historically were bad last season and are just 10 and 25 this time around.
15:21The Rockies are 6-28.
15:246-28.
15:25That is the record for the Rocks at this moment.
15:28So the question, again, not buy or sell, who's going to have the worst record at the end of 162 in the bigs this season.
15:35It's buy or sell, the Rockies are the most irrelevant franchise in sports, MLB, NBA, NFL.
15:43I'm selling that right now.
15:44But by the way, let me just add on to the Colorado Rockies.
15:47When the franchise came in, it was a really cool color concept there.
15:51They actually played at Mile High Stadium.
15:52It was interesting.
15:53It was like, wow, this could be fun.
15:55They actually had some competitive teams.
15:56The Matt Holiday years put up some numbers.
15:58Tom Helton.
15:59Exactly.
16:00Now we're turning into teams that say, okay,
16:04money, it's about making money in Major League Baseball, professional sports.
16:07We get that.
16:08But the Colorado Rockies now are in a division with teams that are willing to go way over their financial means.
16:12And I'm not saying Denver can do that.
16:14But if you're looking to sell a front-line starting pitcher where everybody has equal money,
16:18let's just say I'm going to give you $250 million as a guaranteed contract,
16:22that pitcher is never going to Colorado.
16:24Because as much as we like money and players like money, and that's what you're supposed
16:28to do, you also sit back on your rocking chair when you're 65 years old, and you sit down
16:32with guys like John Smoltz and Greg Maddox and Chris Sales and the Randy Johnsons and
16:36go, hey, man, how was your career?
16:38Finished up with a 2.01 ERA.
16:40That's awesome.
16:40Hey, Dave.
16:41Boy, you were a great pitcher early on.
16:43You went to Colorado and took that money.
16:44What's your ERA?
16:45Ah, finished with a 5.20.
16:47No pitcher is going to do that.
16:48Which means the relevancy of the Colorado Rockies is going to be dipping in the next
16:52couple of years.
16:53But the question wasn't asked, is it just the Colorado Rockies across major league sports
16:57or national sports?
16:59For me, do you know who it is, man?
17:00Guess what league I'm going to?
17:02What league would I go to the most irrelevant franchise sports?
17:04The NBA.
17:05The NBA, yes.
17:06And what's the answer?
17:07The answer is simple to me.
17:08It's Washington.
17:09It's the Wizards.
17:10The Wizards have never made an impact in the NBA.
17:13Not once.
17:14Never.
17:14You take a look at a guy like Bradley Beal.
17:16Hey, man, he's making more money than anybody.
17:17He's playing in Washington.
17:18Nobody cares.
17:19And if I met more than one Wizards fan in my life, who I think works at the Sports
17:23Grid Network, that's all they are.
17:25That's all they are as a Washington fan.
17:27Who is a fan base of the Wizards?
17:28Have you ever run into multiple Wizards fans and go, hey, man, Wizards are great.
17:32Like the Wizards back in the day were the Bullets and won a championship like in the late
17:341970s.
17:35Completely irrelevant for 50 years in the NBA in a major market.
17:40It's by far the Washington Wizards for me.
17:42So that's the interesting thing, right?
17:44The major market that is D.C.
17:46It's not like Denver is a tough place to be in terms of the overall market or drawing.
17:51Beautiful city.
17:52Beautiful city.
17:53Beautiful place to be.
17:54I would love to go to Coors Field one day.
17:56It's a great place to catch a ball game.
17:58And it's probably a pretty cheap ticket at this moment.
18:01I'm probably going to sell the notion the Rockies are the most irrelevant team in three of our
18:06four major men's professional sports leagues in North America.
18:09I think when you think about the NBA as well, the Charlotte Hornets, probably not really moving
18:14the needle all that much in terms of what they have been and how successful they have
18:18been.
18:19But I hear the point about the Wizards in D.C.
18:21You're in D.C.
18:22You should be more.
18:23For me, I still think of the Wiz with John Wall and Bradley Beal and still have a little
18:27bit of relevancy in my mind, but I get to the point in terms of success, contending
18:31for championships really has not been there.
18:34And the Wiz have been in a tank for what feels like the last five years.
18:37Is that going to change if they win the NBA draft lottery next week and get Cooper Flagg
18:41in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes?
18:42And maybe, just maybe, DRS still holding out.
18:46Hope that's the Philadelphia 76ers.
18:48Here was the Rockies starting day, opening day, starting lineup.
18:52Yes.
18:52Brenton Doyle, Ezekiel Toval, Ryan McMahon, Chris Bryant, kind of, Michael Toglia, Kyle
18:58Farmer, Nick Martini, Jordan Beck, Jacob Stallings.
19:02I think if you were to ask even the most devout of MLB fans, DRS, how many players do you know
19:08just based on name recognition?
19:09There is not many baseball fans that could be like, oh yeah, man, love that Jordan Beck
19:13guy.
19:14I think he's in for a great 2025.
19:15No, you're right about it.
19:16And again, superstars sometime to track the talent and also enough to win.
19:19The Rockies have been to the playoffs before, but I just look at the franchise itself and
19:24say, where's the game plan?
19:26We're just going to draft.
19:26And again, it's just coming from, even if you get drafted out of high school, hey, man,
19:30congratulations, you went number three overall as a pitcher.
19:32Where'd you go?
19:32The Rockies.
19:33Like, I just can't wait to get out of there at that point.
19:36Baseball is not meant to play at elevation.
19:38And again, the Colorado Rockies, from what I've heard, and again, I've never been to the
19:41course, one of the more beautiful settings you can have.
19:43You sit up there, you see the Rockies in the background.
19:45It's a great day, great weather.
19:46You enjoy the ballpark.
19:47There's a lot of runs and there's a lot of fun.
19:49But for baseball to make sense for me in Colorado, and I joked about it before, like,
19:53is there a way that you could build a stadium where you could, like, depressurize the situation
19:57and bring it back down to sea level?
19:59I'm sure technology in the next 15 to 20 years would actually be able to do that.
20:02That would save baseball in Colorado, make it viable, where if you are a free agent looking
20:07to go there specifically as a pitcher, you want to do that.
20:10I remember Mike Hampton, I believe, back in the, I want to say, maybe late 1990s, was one
20:13of the best pitchers in baseball being a free agent.
20:15Went to Colorado, got a massive contract, and he exploded on impact in there because
20:19it's hard to pitch there.
20:21And I think most pitchers see that and say, I don't care how much money you pay me, I still
20:24want to be able to retire and be like, yeah, I had an above average record and my ERA was
20:28in a six where if I want to get to Cooperstown, they're not going to put an Astro, oh, he
20:32played in Colorado, so take away three off of his ERA.
20:35That doesn't happen here.
20:36Frieza, we were talking about this the other day in the studio, DRS.
20:40And the ERA leader all time for the Rockies in franchise history is Ubaldo Jimenez, correct?
20:45If I'm not mistaken?
20:47It is?
20:48It is.
20:48Do we remember what that ERA is?
20:50He's finding that for us.
20:52But that is the ERA leader, Ubaldo Jimenez.
20:55366.
20:56Pretty good.
20:57Number two is 405, Deion.
20:59So that just goes to show, and it's difficult in today's day and age to really make that
21:03pitch, to be like, hey, you're going to be our ace in Coors Field.
21:07Even if you develop a great starting pitcher, that second deal he's available to go to in
21:11MLB, he's probably trying to find somewhere else for the Rockies.
21:15I grew up in L.A., right?
21:16Dodgers play in the National League West against Colorado.
21:19I remember those really good Rockies teams of the early 2000s.
21:22Matt Holiday, Todd Helton, Troy Lewicki, Larry Walker even earlier in the 2000s and late
21:2790s.
21:27They were a fun team to play, and a fun team to see.
21:31They really haven't lived up to that now.
21:33You might be thinking, what about the Chicago White Sox?
21:35Worst ever record in Major League Baseball last year, 41-1-21.
21:39They have to be the least relevant franchise in sports because of how bad they are.
21:44They play in Chicago, and when you are historically bad, you take on a weird form of infamous relevancy
21:50in our lives.
21:51So maybe the Rockies can't see that, because 6-28, oh boy.
21:55At least people go to watch the Rockies.
21:57The White Sox?
21:58Yeah, not as good.
22:00More on the early lineup next.
22:01A full Tuesday slate around Major League Baseball.
22:04Every team, all 30 clubs in action on the diamond on this Tuesday.
22:08But DRS, we've mentioned that a few times.
22:10We're selling the people short.
22:1116 games on this Tuesday because we have a doubleheader in the nation's capital.
22:16Some bad weather on the East Coast this week.
22:18A rain out yesterday.
22:19We're hoping for better on this Tuesday.
22:22Not exactly the warmest temperatures.
22:24No.
22:24Some clouds and some rain expected in the forecast, but we're hoping we can play all 16 of these
22:31games on a Tuesday.
22:32That includes inside Yankee Stadium up in the Bronx today.
22:36Game number two of this midweek set between the Padres and the Yankees.
22:40The Yankees led 3-zip entering the 8th yesterday.
22:42Devin Williams in his debut year in pinstripes.
22:45Man, it's been a struggle.
22:47The Padres scoring 4 in the top of the 8th to rally for the 4-3 win.
22:52Tonight, Clark Schmidt gets the start for the Yankees.
22:55Michael King back in the Bronx for the Padres.
22:59It was King who was involved in the Juan Soto deal now a few years ago.
23:03He gets the start against his former team in the Padres now.
23:07You see a pick-em price right there, DRS.
23:09An ever-so-slight favorite, minus 112 in terms of that money line.
23:13Shows a lot of respect here for San Diego, and rightfully so.
23:15Let me explain some things here where we're going to go on this game.
23:1731 pitchers on the card today that are handicapped here with XFIP numbers.
23:20You take a look at Clark Schmidt on the mound.
23:22He's 26 out of 31, which isn't going to help you.
23:2414 and two-thirds innings pitched, 5.52 ERA, but an XFIP of 4.79.
23:30Now, you might be saying he's pitching a little bit over his head
23:33and not getting the breaks there.
23:34That's one thing, but usually those things start to even out.
23:36Michael King, on the other hand, hasn't been sensational this year,
23:39but still top 10 today on the card with his XFIP numbers.
23:4238 and two-thirds innings pitched.
23:43How about a 2.09 ERA, which you love, a slightly higher XFIP of 3.31.
23:48Now, you go over to the hitting environment and say,
23:49okay, what are we getting out of Yankee Stadium today?
23:51As Ben pointed out, 61 degrees, which is okay,
23:53but the wind isn't blowing out.
23:55More of a right foul pole to left foul pole.
23:57You take a look in the lineup today for the Padres.
23:59Fernando Tatis, love them, having a sensational season.
24:01Probably should be in your lineup, but how about this?
24:03Talked about Jackson Merrill, right?
24:04Anticipated in the lineup today.
24:06Jackson Merrill there, the left-handed bat here for the San Diego Padres,
24:09which could give them a little bit of a lift.
24:11But when we focus on the bats here for the New York Yankees,
24:13it always starts and finishes with the top three who are really good.
24:16Trent Grisham's having a sensational season as a lefty, Aaron Judge,
24:19and also Ben Rice.
24:20Those three guys, high ISO powers, high weighted on-base percentages,
24:24but then again, it's going up against Michael King.
24:27156 batters he's faced this year.
24:28Take a look at his ISO against an 092.
24:30That's microscopic.
24:31A weighted on-base percentage of 249.
24:33Look at the K rates here combined.
24:3530% overall, and it's equal opportunity.
24:37Like 32% to lefties, 26%, 27% to right-handed batters.
24:41He should be able to hold down the 40.
24:43Just pitch around that top three.
24:44The Padres should be able to get a victory again tonight.
24:46I agree with that line being very light.
24:49San Diego looking pretty good on the road after a sensational,
24:51nearly historic start at home inside Petco.
24:5523-11.
24:56The record now for San Diego, trailing the Dodgers by only a half game
24:59for the best mark, not just in the National League West or the NL,
25:03but in all of Major League Baseball.
25:05Game number two tonight in the Bronx.
25:06San Diego now an ever-so-slight favorite.
25:09Minus 112 on that money line, but basically a pick-em.
25:12DRS we talked about.
25:13Best contender for the Dodgers in the National League.
25:16San Diego in the running.
25:17San Francisco in the running.
25:19Maybe the Chicago Cubs as well.
25:2122-14, the record for the Cubbies so far this year.
25:24The only team north of .500 in the NL Central.
25:28Best record in that division, and nearly a $4-minus-money favorite
25:32to win the divisional crown, led by the best offense in baseball.
25:35217 runs scored this year for the Cubs, the only team north of .200,
25:41the only team with more than 190 runs scored so far this year,
25:46including nine last night DRS in the series opener against San Francisco.
25:50Ian Happ, a three-RBI day to top that lineup for the Cubbies.
25:54More than a dollar-and-a-half favorite here in game number two against the Giants.
25:57Yeah, it's a really fun lineup that they have.
25:59Take a look at Verlander for the Giants coming in.
26:0137-innings pitch on the season, a 4.38 ERA.
26:03His expected ERA at 4.38 was actually a 3.72, so getting a little bit unlucky here.
26:08Not a terrible XFIP number, but not a great one at 4.31.
26:12You take a look at Colin Ray on the mound.
26:14He's 12th on the card today of about 30 pitchers.
26:16He's had 24-2 innings pitch on the season.
26:19How about an ERA of 1.46?
26:20But the expected ERA out of that 1.46 is a 3.52, and his XFIP is a 3.75.
26:27So maybe we do get hits today, but if we're taking a look at the lineup itself,
26:30Colin Ray this year, you take a look at his numbers.
26:32Not a high K-rate guy, but sort of dancing around and making some plays
26:36because his iso power number gets combined between lefties and righties,
26:39and 0.85, that's microscopic.
26:40That means if you're not getting extra base hits, it takes three hits to get a run per inning,
26:45and that's usually not a great recipe for success.
26:47Love the Giants lineup.
26:48Yastrzemski, Adamas, Chapman, Flores, decent today, but as always, we focus on the Chicago Cubs.
26:54It looks great on a day-to-day basis.
26:56Right-handed batters have gotten the best here of Verlander to the tune of a .222 iso power number
27:00and a weighted-on-base percentage of .321.
27:02What do we always love about Verlander in the past?
27:04Unbelievable strikeout numbers.
27:06That's not that type of pitcher anymore.
27:07Only a 20% K-rate here, which isn't great.
27:09Look at the middle of that lineup for the Cubs today based on just going up against right-handed pitching this season.
27:14If we're just using iso power numbers again, if you're not familiar,
27:17it's what damage you're doing at the plate.
27:19Doubles, triples, and home runs.
27:20You want that number to be a .165 or higher as an average.
27:23The reason I bring that up, take a look at the 2-6 today.
27:26.273, .300, .283, .487, and .295.
27:30And the guy we love talking about there, Pete Crow Armstrong.
27:33At .295, iso power number through 103 bats against right-handed pitching.
27:37It's got to be the Cubbies for me today.
27:38I think you have the better pitcher and the better lineup on the mound today.
27:40Yeah, RSPCA batting in the sixth spot yesterday for Craig Council.
27:44Nico Horner behind him, Dansby Swanson, and Nicky Lopez.
27:47The final four guys in the starting lineup for the Cubbies yesterday,
27:50all scoring at least a run, Pete Crow Armstrong, Horner, and Dansby Swanson
27:55scoring multiple runs, sign of a very strong offense there in Chicago.
28:00The New York Mets a 5-4 win yesterday to open up their series in Phoenix
28:04against the D-backs, two-run home run out of Polo Bear Pete Alonzo.
28:07And Frankie continues it.
28:09That's Francisco Lindor, a three-run shot as well.
28:12Really good matchup today.
28:14Zach Gallin gets the start for Arizona.
28:16The Diamondbacks, an ever-so-slight Moneyline favorite at home.
28:19What do you like tonight?
28:20This game's going under here.
28:21And by the way, David Peterson, we take a look at Gallin is that name,
28:24but Peterson on the season, 32 and two-thirds innings pitched here, 3.06 ERA.
28:28But how about the X-SIP?
28:29Lower than that, 2.88, absolutely phenomenal.
28:32Here's where the game's going to come down to.
28:33Peterson as a left-handed pitcher's been very good against lefties and righties.
28:36You look at the lineup for the Diamondbacks on the season,
28:38not very good at all with power numbers against left-handed pitching.
28:42I just told you that ISO power number metric that we look at,
28:44165 or higher is where you want to be.
28:46Look at the nine batters he anticipated tonight for the Diamondbacks.
28:490.62, 1.46, 1.43, 1.15, 0.73, 0.50, 1.25, 0, and 1.19.
28:55Mets are going to get this, but also my favorite bet, probably under tonight.
28:59And you got a little bit of wiggle room there with the nine staying under that total tonight.
29:02Ten runs beat you.
29:03Come on, no.
29:03In downtown Phoenix.
29:04What did you make of the city additions released yesterday for the D-backs?
29:07Moved to another city at this point.
29:08When I saw those, oh, that reminds me of Glendale, Arizona.
29:11No, it doesn't.
29:12What connection is that at Glendale, Arizona?
29:13It had kind of the old colors, the turquoise and the purple.
29:16Don't they have like five city additions?
29:18More MLB next.
29:20Another day for the history books in Major League Baseball.
29:22It is Skeens Day 31 in the history of MLB, a part of this very full slate Tuesday around the bigs.
29:29The Buccos on the road under the arch in St. Louis.
29:32And despite being on the road, DRS in a 12-and-20-14, Pittsburgh with Skeens on the mound
29:38is an ever-so-slight Moneyline favorite, minus 125.
29:42Total of seven today against the Redbirds in the lube.
29:4614 games this year.
29:48Pittsburgh Pirates have been booked as the favorite.
29:50This is the eighth start of the season made by Paul Skeens.
29:54You would have to assume that nearly half of the times the Pirates have been favored this
29:58year, Skeens has been on the bump.
30:01And yet, Pittsburgh just straight up, three and four in the seven outings that Paul Skeens
30:05has made this season.
30:06His overall record, three and three.
30:09Will he get his fourth win of the season today against St. Louis?
30:11What if I told you Paul Skeens is not the better pitcher on the mound today?
30:14What would you say about that?
30:15I would say Libertor.
30:16What would you say about that?
30:17Libertor?
30:17Who's that guy?
30:18Well, let's explain it again.
30:1931 pitchers on the card today with at least five innings pitched in 2025.
30:23And you know me.
30:24I'm a big ex-fif guy.
30:25I like to be able to determine the underlying value of the pitcher and what that means.
30:28Not just the name on the back of the uniform.
30:31Top five?
30:32Actually, top six.
30:33Both of these guys reside in it.
30:34One guy, however, is fifth.
30:36One is sixth.
30:37Libertor is a spot ahead of Paul Skeens.
30:38Take a look at Libertor's season so far.
30:4034 innings pitched, a 3.44 ERA.
30:43But look at that ex-fif.
30:442.90.
30:45That is fantastic.
30:46Paul Skeens, 42 and two-thirds innings pitched.
30:48We're not saying he's being bad.
30:49He's actually got a 2.74 ERA, but a 3.01 ex-fif number.
30:53Also, understand this.
30:54What happened the last time we saw Paul Skeens?
30:56Fastball wasn't there.
30:58Couldn't strike anybody out.
30:59Does that mean that lower dip in velocity, something might be wrong with the shoulder?
31:02I'm not saying it, but you see the last start.
31:04Those are some of the things I like to take a look at.
31:06Because most people say, Skeens, this late against St. Louis.
31:09And also, can we talk about the lineup for the Pittsburgh Pirates, which is like O'Neal
31:13Cruz hits a home run or nobody scores runs?
31:17Cardinals today, for me, we're going upset over Skeens.
31:1912-24, the record for Pittsburgh.
31:21Skeens pretty good in his opening six starts of the year.
31:24Most recently, last Thursday, three earned, given up against the Cubbies.
31:28All three of those earned runs against Skeens, courtesy of the long ball.
31:32But Michael Libertor, Matthew Libertor.
31:34Yeah, call him, Michael.
31:36Come on, it sounds better, Michael.
31:37Most shocking thing I've heard.
31:39Donia Lib, Ritor fan on the mound today.
31:42It's a very conservative call by you right there.
31:45For the St. Louis Cardinals.
31:48We head out to Atlanta.
31:49The Braves blanking the Reds yesterday for a 4-0 win.
31:53Atlanta avoiding the sweep on Sunday night.
31:55Baseball against the Dodgers, holding on for a 4-3 win.
31:58And expected to be rather easy today, DRS, in the A.
32:02Chris Sale on the mound for Atlanta.
32:05Minus $2.20, that money line price in favor of the Braves today.
32:09Total stands at 8.
32:11Will it be that simple for the Braves against the Reds?
32:13Yeah, take a look at Sale in the season.
32:14And again, this is interesting, where you're using some of those analytical numbers
32:17that sort of confuse some people just starting to learn.
32:20Like, what is it?
32:20ERA doesn't give up a lot of runs.
32:21It makes some sense.
32:22The expectations are some of the ERAs don't make too much sense.
32:25Look at Chris Sale in the season.
32:2635-1 innings pitch.
32:27Look at his ERA, close to 5.
32:29Like, that's terrible.
32:29But his XFIP number is 3.25.
32:31The expected ERA out of that 4.84, Ben, is at a 3.32.
32:35Then you sort of slide it down and say, where's Abbott at this year?
32:3819 innings pitch, a 2.84 ERA.
32:40That's tremendous.
32:41But his XFIP number, much higher, at a 4.48.
32:44When we take a look at the batting matchups today, Chris Sale struggling a little bit
32:48with right-handed batters.
32:49And good thing there'll be a lot of righties in the lineup today to sort of counterback that.
32:52But McLean's got good numbers.
32:54And Trevino, that's it.
32:55That's it for the Reds today.
32:57So it's like, okay, where are the runs coming from?
32:58For the Atlanta Braves, the matchup, not fantastic, but also understand this.
33:02You take a look at Andrew Abbott, it's a good strikeout pitcher.
33:05Maybe he walks a little bit too much from the right-hand side.
33:06But the lineup, Austin Riley starting to come into his own couple home runs in the past
33:10couple games.
33:11Ozuna, Olsen in that lineup.
33:12A better lineup for the Braves.
33:14And maybe the better pitcher overall.
33:16Don't love the game, but it seems like it's going to be a Braves line at minus 215.
33:20Yeah.
33:20Maybe the runs stay under 8 in this game because, you know, I just don't trust those Reds bats.
33:24So that's probably where I'd go in this one.
33:26As we've shared, the Cubbies, the only team with a winning record currently in the NL Central.
33:30Two teams at even .500.
33:31The Brewers, 18-18.
33:33My Cincinnati Reds, 18-18 as well.
33:36We need 18 to become 80.
33:38The Reds go over their preseason win total.
33:40And I cash a bet.
33:42Today in Fenway, pretty good pitching matchup, at least on paper.
33:45Lucas Giolito in his second start in nearly 20 months against the Texas Rangers.
33:51Texas DRS sends out Nathan Evaldi, who, of course, spent three and a half years pitching inside Fenway as well.
33:57The Rangers with Evaldi, a slight favorite today on the road in Beantown, Moneyline.
34:01And I'll take the slight favorite at that point, just on an Evaldi move here.
34:0542 and two-thirds innings pitching, as you said, you know, has a pedigree of being in that ballpark.
34:09Not going to surprise him pitching there.
34:10How about a 211 ERA and a 240 XFIP number?
34:13The second best pitcher on the card today.
34:15I do think it's not going to be good for Boston, so I'm going to go Rangers in this one.
34:19Regardless of the lineups, give me the better pitcher.
34:20Giolito, his first start in about 18 months last week against the Blue Jays in Toronto.
34:26Six innings of work, five hits, three earned runs, allowed two home runs.
34:30Give it up about 90 pitches for Giolito.
34:33Evaldi's been in the bigs for 14 years.
34:36Yeah, yeah.
34:36Guy's been around for quite some time.
34:38More on the early line up next.