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00:00For that, we can welcome Sorin Yonita, president of the Think Tank Expert Forum.
00:04It's a great pleasure to have you with us on the program today.
00:07As we just saw in that report, the last ballot was, you know, a messy affair, to say the least,
00:12and it's been a rocky few months since.
00:15So what kind of an election can we expect to see this time around?
00:20There will be an election with three polls, three competitors.
00:24One is the MAGA movement with two candidates, George Simeone, that you mentioned,
00:28and another one, Victor Pontal, former prime minister.
00:32So these are the sovereignist movements.
00:34There's one candidate in the middle of the system of the current coalition left-rights of the mainstream parties.
00:42And this is a vote for, if you want, geopolitical continuity, pro-West,
00:47but also a very corrupt regime and very non-credible with the public.
00:52And this is why they have a problem even finding individual candidates for each party.
00:58And then you have the last one, the reformist movement, again, with two candidates,
01:02Nico Shorten, the mayor of Bucharest, and Elena Laschol, in which you mentioned.
01:07And they also have a conflict of, you know, personalities between them.
01:11So every camp is undermined by some, you know, political incompetence, so to speak.
01:18So these are the three main movements, if you want, that run in these elections.
01:22And the chances are pretty balanced, I would say.
01:25Now, it really is a crucial election, isn't it?
01:28Because it could propel the ultra-nationalist George Simeone to power.
01:32And, of course, a far-right victory could lead to Romania veering from its pro-Western path.
01:37Give us a picture of what a Simeone victory could look like.
01:40Yes, it is a very, you know, scary perspective because Romania never had an openly anti-Western president.
01:51But having said that, if he manages to win the presidency, there will be a permanent conflict between him and the parliament
01:59because the Romanian constitution makes it so that the president cannot act alone, cannot dismiss the government.
02:08While early elections for the parliament in Romania are almost impossible to organize.
02:13So we are stuck with the current parliament, which generates a government, and then there will be a president.
02:18And there will be a permanent, you know, very uneasy cohabitation between them.
02:22So this is a perspective.
02:23But, of course, it will be very bad for Romania's geopolitical alignment, and especially for the support that we have been giving to Ukraine.
02:32So just to hold you on your point there, what are then the geopolitical consequences at risk in this election,
02:38especially with respect to NATO and Ukraine?
02:44It is, I mean, the worst possibility is for Romania to become another Hungary, if you want,
02:50with a lot of internal political cacophony, so this would be different from Hungary.
02:56But, you know, to become an obstacle, to become somebody making troubles in the European affairs,
03:05practicing a rhetoric which is anti-Western, xenophobic, anti-immigration, although we don't have much immigration.
03:14So they will import here into Romania a lot of cultural wars, actually, which are more characteristic for the United States.
03:22So there will be a MAGA-ification of Romanian politics, with all the consequences, you know, for the position vis-à-vis Russia and Ukraine.
03:30And Simeon's win could also test Romania's ties to the European Union, couldn't it?
03:35You know, a test for the rise of nationalism in the EU, especially with the cohort of existing Eurosceptic leaders,
03:41like the prime ministers of Hungary, as you just mentioned, and Slovakia as well.
03:47Yes, they will try to be like Orban and Fico, but there will be limitations on such a path,
03:55because, you know, if you are a Romanian nationalist, you cannot be a very good friend with a Hungarian nationalist, right?
04:01So I would say Giorgio Simeone, actually, he tried to get closer to Giorgia Meloni, for example,
04:07and to the corresponding political family in the European Parliament, which they did.
04:12So at least in the last year, they toned down the rhetoric of hostility towards our immediate neighbors.
04:20They speak so much about claiming territories from the Republic of Moldova or Ukraine.
04:25So we saw a little bit of moderation in their discourse, because they tried to be acceptable in the European Parliament and in Europe in general.
04:34But, you know, at the bottom of their heart, we know that they have these values of xenophobia, of nationalism,
04:42and actually a lot of skepticism towards the rules of the European Union.
04:48Now, the last ballot was, of course, annulled following evidence of Russian interference.
04:53So what are some of the measures that are being taken to counter similar threats this time?
04:59Well, actually, the evidence was pretty thin on the ground.
05:03So it's been pushed a lot in the media.
05:07But, you know, probably there was some intervention from Russia,
05:12because if they are everywhere in the region and they try to interfere everywhere, why would they spare Romania?
05:17However, the Romanian authorities haven't been able to prove much since November until now.
05:24But the upside is that the institutions are a bit more solid now.
05:30The electoral authority, for example, the head of the electoral authority was changed.
05:34They are a little bit more proactive.
05:36So they are not in the passive mood.
05:38They have been the whole autumn, allowing Georgesque and the whole sovereignist movement to come under the radar.
05:44And at this last year, we could even see some complicity in state institution,
05:51in the law and order apparatus with the whole, you know, Georgesque movement.
05:56Probably, probably they got scared.
05:58And when I'm saying they, I mean the regime, and especially the two mainstream parties,
06:03social democrats and liberals, who are the running coalition.
06:06So they are being more proactive, we see a little bit more monitorization,
06:11because before November, it was just the civil society and the media who was putting, you know,
06:16the spot of light on the sovereignist movements.
06:20The centrist parties were in collusion, and they were playing strategic games with the extremist movements in Romania.
06:26And this is why they got the result which they got in November.
06:30Soren, it's been really great to hear your insights.
06:32Thank you so much for your time today.
06:34Thank you very much.