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00:00As we try and figure out the way to attack a game seven in Denver, let's start with Nicola
00:06Jokic because the Joker is having a great series.
00:10We know that averaging the triple double, but I'm going to suggest again, he's having
00:18a great series.
00:20I think he is likely been the best player in the playoffs up until this point, but there
00:25is one aspect I think he has been underwhelming by his standards, and that is scoring the
00:33basketball because Jokic was a top three point per game guy in the NBA this year.
00:40Jokic averaged his career high in points this season, a tick under 30.
00:45The routine for Nicola Jokic in the playoffs is to up his scoring average without fail.
00:52He's had a number of postseasons where he's averaged 30 a game, so for Jokic to come
00:57off of a regular season where he's giving you nearly 30 a game and to right now only have
01:03one 30 point performance in the series, I do think is a little bit surprising.
01:09Again, I am not even saying this in a Jokic isn't doing enough way.
01:13I'm talking about it's just surprising he's not scoring that much, and it's obviously impacting
01:19then how you attack the prop markets because he has been an under in this series more than
01:26he has been an over.
01:28What do you think about Jokic, Tom, scoring the ball triple-double-wise?
01:32Any value for you?
01:33You know, at this point, it depends on what narrative we're buying into.
01:36If we are buying into the narrative that the Clippers are going to do their due diligence
01:41and throw the extra defensive resources at Jokic, then yeah, it does make sense that
01:47under 28 and a half would be the spot to go.
01:49And it's a little bit juicy, at least I'm seeing here on FanDuel minus 132, but if we're
01:53buying into the narrative that MPJ and Gordon have to do more, they have to score more, and
01:58it's not going to be as much Jokic, then buying into unders and or overs on his assist props
02:05because MPJ does have to knock down those 33s.
02:08We have to tell ourselves a story about what we want to see in this game, so I think the
02:12under 28 and a half would be the spot to look for Jokic.
02:15It's not to say that he can't have a triple-double, even if he does go under on that.
02:20So that's where I'm initially leaning.
02:21His PRA prop is sitting at, was it 49 and a half?
02:25Yeah, it's big time.
02:25Yeah, 49 and a half.
02:26So listen, there's a chance that he still goes over that and under on the points.
02:30Now, obviously, we're working with some thin margins at that point, but under 28 and
02:33a half would be my initial look.
02:34What do you think in here, J.Y.?
02:35You know, when Kevin and I did the show last Saturday, I said that they had to get the
02:41game, they had to get him the ball early.
02:42Yep.
02:43And he had to, and I think it's points prop that game, if I'm not right, Kevin, I think
02:46it was seven and a half, and he needed like a half court, he needed some kind of crazy
02:49shot to hit it.
02:51But to me, when you have the quote-unquote best player in the world in this series, like
02:57you just look at the shot attempts, 16, 14, 25, 13, 22.
03:04You can't live with this guy getting me 12, 13, 14 shots.
03:09You don't have a shot in hell.
03:10You don't.
03:11Because he's got to be able to force issues.
03:13See, so I'm going back to the first quarter, six and a half points and going over.
03:19Because I think what they may do is they may go ahead and go ahead and early before the
03:24substitution of platoon comes into the game and try to take advantage of it early and
03:29often.
03:30You often want to see players in this spot say, you know what?
03:34You got to grab the bull by the horns and you have to go to attack mode early.
03:37Like, if I'm looking at Nikola Jokic at the end of the first quarter, and it's like, I
03:42don't know, game number, I think it was game number six, where I think he took like, or
03:46game five, we took like three shots in the first quarter.
03:48Like, that's a problem.
03:50That's a major problem.
03:52I would say Nikola Jokic goes over his points prop.
03:54I mean, there's part of me I've never bet first basket.
03:57Part of me is like, first basket's got to go to Nikola Jokic.
03:59Like, get the ball inside, go to work.
04:02If you get a foul call on Zubak, you get a foul call on Zubak.
04:05But I need to see Nikola Jokic be established early and often over six and a half points
04:10first quarter.
04:11So, I think that Jokic could be in line for a really strong three-point shooting game.
04:17He has kind of moved, you know, up and down throughout the series in that market.
04:24The same is true for Kawhi.
04:25So, if I had to pick between the two, Kawhi for three plus made threes is a plus 140, is
04:32my favorite, again, of the two options.
04:34Kawhi last game, two of eight, three straight games without three made threes.
04:38It's a clear and obvious bounce back spot.
04:40In a game seven, you know the minutes are going to be big time.
04:42I think the volume will be big time.
04:44But my favorite way to play either guy is bringing them together.
04:48I always talk about this, the head-to-head player prop market on DK.
04:51Jokic and Kawhi to combine over four and a half made threes is plus 140.
04:55I think one of them getting you four is totally on the board there.
05:00I don't know if I can find an alt market of them maybe combined for six or so.
05:03I'll take a look.
05:04I think you are going to see those two superstars stand up.