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00:00I hate to have what feels like the stupidest, most simplistic take that you could have about
00:07this game, but here we are. This is a big game. This is as big as they come. This is the one.
00:16This is really the one. This is the one that to me, if you really think about the warrior fan
00:23experience and what a lot of us have been talking about for the last, I mean, I say six months,
00:30but you could make the argument that it's two years. People have been saying, is there something
00:36that we can do to provide Steph a teammate or two that would do what? Allow you to advance in the
00:45playoffs. So here we are. This is it. This is it. You can tell me that the Jimmy Butler trade was
00:52great. I'll agree with you. Next year is next year, but who the hell wants to think about that?
00:58And I know that the series is not over if they don't win tonight, but they're set up in a really
01:04bad spot, both in this series and anything that would happen beyond if they don't win tonight.
01:10If the point was to get Steph Curry to be able to quote unquote, make noise in the playoffs.
01:17This is it. This is it. You win this game tonight.
01:23Well, and you set yourself up for this. When you're the underdog by seed, I know that Vegas had them as
01:28the favorite, but when you are the seven and you're going up against the two, what you do is you get a
01:34split, you hold serve, and then whatever you do in game five, it doesn't matter because you come home
01:39in game six and you win the damn game. And I, I want to refer to my clipboard notes, which I, you know,
01:46me, deep dive notes. Tell me you've been doing this for 30 years without telling me that you'd
01:53been doing this for 30 years. Well, it's about 27, but what I'd like, what my comfort zone is,
01:59is to write things down and then keep it. And that way I can refer to it. And I've done this
02:05before where, you know, the seven or eight seeds since, uh, the expansion back in 2003,
02:12when they expanded to best of seven, only six teams have won as a seven or eight. All six of
02:19those teams earned a split on the road against the higher seated team. So if you want the blueprint,
02:26the template, the route, or the route, depending on how you roll, uh, and you and I have some,
02:32I'm a route guy. Yeah. I'm also a route guy, but I'll go route. I'll go route only if it's
02:37route 66 because there's like content that's been based on that. I try not to say route anymore
02:42because I did five years of New Zealand radio and route in New Zealand. What does that mean?
02:48It involves, uh, Oh, it involves a tissue and the internet. Oh, it's inappropriate. Yeah. No,
02:55I did that in the best possible way. I didn't say lotion, but you didn't have to bring it up.
03:00No, but that's what, that's why I don't say route anymore. I do. I cheer for it. I no longer
03:05out to the ball game. Root, root, root for the home team. That's disgusting. Three of them. Huh?
03:11Yeah. Anyway, anyway, anyways, what is going on here? Oh, Grandy, don't be such an 80 year old.
03:18Be a good time for this. I'll say all six teams for the love of God. Stop. Would have been better.
03:25So what? Okay. That also works. All six of the seven and eight seeds. I'm sorry. Go ahead.
03:31They got a split on the road. Yeah. The Warriors have done that. So this is the template for success.
03:37You go out there, you do what they did. You come home and you win. Damn it. Your percentages that
03:42you've been talking about for the last week and a half all get blown up. The numbers are numbers. And
03:47they get blown up if you don't win a night. They do. They get blown up. Whoever wins game one is 76%.
03:52They win game one. They had a 1-1 tie. Whoever wins game three is 78%. They won game three.
03:58Right. They have. Teams up 3-1. Teams up 3-1. 95.5%. They were up 3-1. Oh, yeah. Yeah.
04:04If you lose tonight, you're an underdog. Oh, boy. You're a dog if you lose tonight. So
04:12there, to me, there you have it. Let's, again, 8 at 8, 9, 5, 7, 9, 5, 70. Warriors Live is less
04:18than two hours away. We are up here on the concourse at the Ultra Club inside Chase Center
04:24getting ready for the game. If you've got tickets, get here early. Come say hi. Get
04:28your butt in your seat and get ready to get loud, okay? Sebastian in the Bay. You're
04:32next up. Hi, Sebastian. Thanks for the call.
04:36Hey, how's it going, guys?
04:37What's up?
04:38You don't have to agree with me. This might be a little bit of a hot take, but I still
04:42believe that Jimmy Butler has another gear he can reach. Now, I'm not sure that he will
04:49reach it because of the injuries and, you know, he's approaching 35, but this is a guy
04:55who, in my opinion, gave me one of the best shot-making performances that I've seen in
05:00the playoffs in the last decade. I mean, he went into Milwaukee, destroyed Giannis, dropped
05:0856 points after having a similar tailbone injury, although not the same, but, I mean,
05:13this guy is a dog, and we haven't really seen, I mean, we've seen Butler, you know, drop
05:1830 points, 35 points, but have we seen that level of shot-making and that level of explosiveness
05:24yet? I don't think so. Will we? I'm not sure, but it's possible.
05:28I don't think it's a crazy take at all, Sebastian.
05:30No, I'll take it all, Sebastian.
05:30No, but here's what I do think about it. First of all, any Jimmy Butler fan out there who's
05:36watched him prior to this, you're watching a Jimmy Butler that had a different role on
05:40that team than he does on this team.
05:42That's fair.
05:42Right? So if he's going to call himself Robin, then we're not necessarily normally going to
05:47ask him to go out there and take over a basketball game. He's Robin. He might need to. I think
05:52he does it better than anyone in terms of reading when is it time for him to go, when is it time
05:57for him to pull back, when is it time for him to highlight Steph, and when is it time for
06:01him to not? So I definitely think that. The other side of this is, we did see a pretty
06:08special Jimmy Butler in the play-in game and early in these playoffs.
06:12In game one.
06:13Right. And then what happened in game two? You know, he got hurt.
06:16Yep.
06:17He got hurt.
06:18And it's in.
06:18And so what have we seen since then? He missed most of a game. He missed an entire game.
06:23And then he played two games where he looked like he could barely run. And in one of those,
06:27he scored 27 points and was the team's leading scorer. So I agree. I agree that there's another
06:34gear and maybe we'll see it tonight. I don't know what the health status is. Steve talks
06:39about it now to us yesterday in a way that he didn't before. He kind of blew it off yesterday
06:44like, no big deal, Jimmy's fine. He didn't sound that way before. So maybe we will get that.
06:50Here is Steve Kerr yesterday on the health of Jimmy.
06:53He's good. Yeah, he's ready to go. He was in our walkthrough today. And film says,
06:57and moving around well. And I think he's, he's feeling a lot better. Jimmy will be ready to go
07:01tomorrow. That's it. Like that. That's not what it sounded. He was on the injury report in the
07:06previous two games. Right. And now it's just like, whatever, dude, he's moving around. He's fine.
07:10He's good to go. He's fine. And I, I look at what he's done just in this series. You mentioned
07:14game one, he had 25. It's a win. He had 27 in game four. That's a win. He missed game three and they
07:20won. Anyway, Steph was awesome. I look at elimination game, Jimmy. And traditionally he's
07:27been awesome. And I kind of forgot that against Boston in 2023, they were up three Oh against
07:33Boston and it went to a game seven. Yes, it did. And Jimmy was in that game where they beat
07:39Boston. He had 28 on 12 of 28. I wouldn't expect 28 shots tonight, but your point is well taken.
07:47And I go back to 2022 where they lost to Boston in seven and he had 35 and game six, which was an
07:55elimination game for Miami. He had 47 on 16 of 29. So playoff Jimmy's one level elimination game.
08:04Jimmy's another, this is not an elimination game, obviously for them. It's not, but it is for the
08:09Rockets. Well, and you're right about like the gravity of the Warriors having to go to Houston.
08:14So I think that Jimmy will treat this like he's treated games in his past where you got to play it
08:19that way. Well, he's going to play 42 minutes minimum. I would predict, I would think, I mean,
08:24that's a hot over under to set, but I mean, unless the Warriors play really, really well and have a
08:30lead, you know, then maybe it's third, but it's at least 38. I'll agree with you. It's at least 38.
08:36Yeah. Um, and obviously the, the, the, you know, Steph and Jimmy and Draymond are coming off of
08:4125 minute or under performances. Steve told us yesterday, there's a big difference. And so they should
08:49be, they should be, you know, ready to go in terms of the energy level that they've got for
08:53tonight. Let's go to Jason in the city. Jason, thank you for calling Willard and Dems. What's
08:57good. What's up? Uh, gentlemen, I'm excited for a game six. Uh, got good memories of game
09:04six, Steph Curry versus Udoka. Of course, Udoka doesn't, doesn't, uh, doesn't have good memories,
09:10but I'm excited for today. I really like, uh, your original premise and the question. And I thought
09:17you were, you Willard, I thought you were going to take, uh, take another level and talk about the
09:23how, cause I think, I think the how matters to, for us to decide whether the Butler trade was a
09:30home run or not. I want to see what it's going to be like tonight. There's a world in which we win
09:36the game, but Butler, God forbid, uh, tweaks something and really isn't contributing. Butler
09:44shows up as playoff Butler, Butler is a solid contributor. I think for us to figure, I agree.
09:50It's a total, totally solid double. I'm not at a triple yet for this trade. Um, I think, uh,
09:57a really solid double, double or triple, double and a solid team wins, say 10 to 15 points. I don't
10:03know what the line is. I'm not a betting guy. Um, but a really solid win would definitely make this,
10:09uh, a home run. But if it's anything less than that, uh, I'm not, I'm not so sure that, that we
10:16can call it a home run yet. If we lose, if we get to game seven, uh, then it's for sure the jury's
10:23out. I, I, I wouldn't be able to say that it's a home run yet. No, that's, that's exactly. Yeah.
10:29Yeah. That's it. Jason. We'll let you keep going, but that's exactly what I said. Like
10:32this is, this is, it's already a double. It's a home run. If they win tonight, if not, it
10:38like, I, I think it's not definitely not a home run, but it starts to tilt back in the
10:44other direction. And that minimum is to be determined, but go ahead.
10:49Okay. Well, my question to you, Willard Ben is, is if Jimmy plays 10 minutes and he, he
10:54has a triple single is really not contributing, would you? And we still win. Cause maybe Pat
10:59Spencer is pissed off from the last game and he goes off for 40 movies contributing. You
11:04know, we just don't know. And, and the starters just aren't performing, but we just have surprised
11:08solid performances. We just still consider that a home run just because we win. I wouldn't,
11:14I wouldn't say so. Now, Dan, you've been traditionally more, uh, an ends justify the
11:18mean guy, the outcomes matter. Willard, you, I, from what I've, you know, I hear, I listened
11:24to you all daily. You've always been more of the process guy. And I think the how definitely
11:28matters. If they lose, it's definitely not a home run or the jury's out. But if they,
11:32if they win, I want to see how Butler performs. That's what I got. Thanks.
11:35Okay. Jason. Yeah. Like I, I am a process guy, but first of all, totally results.
11:40First of all, you're throwing out some scenarios that are pretty freaking wild. So the idea
11:46about the triple single and they still win for them to win this game for Pat Spencer to be
11:52even be in the game. The Warriors need to be up by 30 points. That's not happening.
11:56Unless, unless somebody gets hurt. Unless you want to order the code red. Well,
12:00you want him to go in there and code red somebody. Yeah. Again, that, that all suggests that the
12:05game's not going well, but his premise was Jimmy's not playing well. Steph's not playing
12:11well. Draymond's not playing well. Pat Spencer scores 40 and the Warriors win. I'm going to put
12:17all my life savings in the, that's not going to happen bucket, but let me back up to what
12:24his larger question is. And, and, and here's what that is. What if Jimmy were to play poorly
12:30and the Warriors win anyway, would you still consider the trade a home run? And I would
12:36largely say yes. Oh yeah. And, and, and, and the reason for that is this. Now you're sort
12:42of whittling your, your process versus results idea all the way down to stats and one game.
12:48In one game. Yeah. I, I, I'm, I'm going to make this about one game because of what it
12:53represents, not the individual performances of the guys in it. They are not in this game.
12:59They don't have a three, two lead. They're not even in the playoffs. If Jimmy Butler's not
13:05here doing everything that he's done for the last three months. Yes. So this opportunity was
13:11created by Jimmy. I'm not going to say that therefore he needs to individually be the
13:17leader tonight that gets you over the top. If Jimmy scores 12 and Steph scores 46,
13:24yabba dooboo do like we're on to round two. Shout out to Flintstone. Yeah. That's like,
13:28I don't, that, that to me does not matter. Trade home run, two days rest off to round
13:35two, 100%. You can have Steph and Draymond and Jimmy Butler all score 12 points and you
13:41can win 80 to 79 and it is a home run. And that's where for me as a results guy, it's
13:47about the result. And that's why I've been saying to you for three or four months, like
13:51over, under four and a half playoff wins. What do you think? And you were under, under,
13:55under, under, under. And then Jimmy happened and you were like, ask me again. And I did.
14:00And you're like, I like the over. And here we are. And here we are. One went away from the
14:05over. Most likely. Most likely. I mean, unless, unless they were to get swept. I don't even
14:08want to use the S word because I've already sworn on the air once in this run and I don't
14:12want to do it again. Casey sweep. I don't think that that happens, but thank you, Grandy. You're
14:18always so quick to, uh, to clown me and I appreciate that about you. But I do think that the over,
14:23under shifted and it wasn't only because of one guy, but what he did for everybody, Steph,
14:30Draymond, Pods, Moody, the whole roster, he made everybody better because of the way he
14:36plays. And so, yeah, for me, it's the process. You're right. Jimmy Butler was a part of the
14:41process change, but the results was the fact that they went on a heater and here they are
14:46as a seven seed. We're live in the Laughing Monk studios, Laughing Monk righteously brewed
14:49in San Francisco and, um, more on Laughing Monk in just a moment because they're doing it
14:55again. They're doing it again, dibs. And doing it and doing it and doing it well. Yeah.
14:59For those of you who, uh, are, are not, uh, you know, lucky enough to be in the building
15:06tonight or lucky enough to have a loved one's watch party or whatever. In other words, if
15:11you're looking for a place to watch the game. Okay. Cause I, I missed this on Wednesday.
15:16I was watching a game with a two year old with a fever and turns out you were dropping
15:21knowledge about some action. Laughing Monk in Sunnyvale, 1235 Oakmead Parkway is
15:29the address for those of you who don't know where it is. Laughing Monk Brewery in Sunnyvale
15:34is having a game six watch party tonight. Arrive early. Seats will fill up fast. Arriving
15:41early qualifies as pretty damn soon because this game is tipping off now in a little bit
15:48over two and a half hours. So get there soon. And then if you want the $5 beers, spoiler
15:54alert, you do. Yeah. Just say warriors world when you get up to the bar and that beer is
16:04five bucks and it will make you happy. Almost as happy as a warrior win. Do you have to say
16:10it in any manner? Like, is it a whisper? Is it a shout? Is it just a, I think it's your
16:14choice. Warriors world. You do it that way. It might be four bucks. Yeah. Don't quote me on
16:20that. I like it. What if you wear one of these? Oh, I have it underneath my warriors shirt.
16:25Oh, are you talking about the shirt or are you talking about the jersey? No, the jersey
16:28is the jersey. The shirt is the one that everyone's getting here tonight. Because if you mention
16:32dibs, it goes up to six bucks. Yeah, that's unfortunate. I'm sorry. Don't tell them dibs
16:36sent you. Pass that along. But anyway, so watch Party at Laughing Monk in Sunnyvale. But as of
16:43now, continue to take your phone calls, 888-957-9570. And the question is, the premise
16:49we threw out, the Jimmy Butler trade was already good. It's already, we called it a double.
16:54It's already at least a double. I think we can all see that based on the way this has transpired.
16:59But it is likely, not definitive, but likely, very probable, that tonight is the night that
17:06decides whether or not this trade is a home run. And I get that some of you out there would
17:10be like, round two? Round two is a home run? Like, really? This is a dynasty? And round
17:18two is a home run? Here's kind of where I'm coming from on that one. I still think even
17:25in this moment, if you're a rational fan, you can believe in their chances for contention,
17:32but you're settled on the idea that a title is unlikely. That is, I would be, wouldn't you,
17:39would you be surprised if they won the whole thing? Stunned. I would be surprised. Stunned.
17:43I would be surprised. Think about it, if they advance out of this series. Not shocked, but
17:47surprised. Well, Minnesota, I don't know what the odds are. And maybe you can text your good
17:52friend, John Avello. Maybe we wait until they actually win the game. Might be able to find,
17:56they might have the futures. I would guess that the T-Wolves Warriors series, if it happens,
18:02would be darn close to a pick-em. I don't, I mean, I don't think that the Warriors would be
18:09more than minus 150 favorites. I know that Minnesota wouldn't be more than minus 150 favorites.
18:14I bet you Minnesota would be favored. But I don't think by more than, they wouldn't be a two-to-one
18:19favorite, which would be minus 200. My point is, in the next round, it's coin toss E, and then
18:25against OKC, either one of these teams is a dog. And against Boston or Cleveland, I think that
18:31the Warriors or the T-Wolves would also be a dog. My point is, going forward, if they go forward,
18:38there's not going to be a series where you look at it even like this Houston one, where
18:42they were favored as a seven seed over the two seed. Yeah, no, I'll agree with all of that.
18:47So that's kind of where I'm coming from. I just think that the road, the road suddenly gets really
18:53difficult, and it brings into play, if you lose tonight, obviously it brings into play a very,
18:58very quick exit, which would be Sunday. Possibly. Yeah, possibly. And then even if you were to win
19:05Sunday, I just think that you're asking a hell of a lot to then go play a talented Minnesota team
19:1248 hours later, who's been sitting there resting for five days, and turn around and try to have
19:17success in that series. I don't like your chances. They could. They're allowed to. They're allowed to.
19:24I had to do it before you did. Which is why I keep saying this is probably the night that decides
19:30whether or not the Jimmy Butler trade was a home run. I think for this to go well, they've got to
19:36win tonight. And if we buy the idea that a championship is at minimum unlikely, and I also
19:43think most Warrior fans I've talked to, if you even just arrive at the Western Conference Finals,
19:48people would be like, dude, that's a pretty good job. Like, even if you lose it, you go lose to the
19:54Thunder in six, nobody would be like, these schmucks. No one would do that. Round two is where
20:00there is debate. And I acknowledge that. There's debate. Some people would say, that's nothing.
20:07It's worth nothing. Others would say, hey, you know what? This has been a fun run. Jimmy Butler here
20:13brought us on this ride and bought us an extra month of basketball. I can see both points. I just
20:19tell you the way the way I look at it. I look at it as for two years, we've been trying to find a way
20:26for Steph Curry to advance in the playoffs. Yeah. And this is the first time in two years
20:33that that they, you know, since beating the Kings in game seven, this is the first time that they've
20:39had a basketball game in this building where they have an opportunity to do that advance
20:44in the playoffs. And for me, that's kind of the marker on what makes Jimmy Butler a home run,
20:50because they don't do that without him. I agree. No, I mean, you would have had to win
20:55one, if not two play in games, and you might've had to get the eight and then go beat OKC in the
21:01first round, which is not something that's very likely. I'm looking at the fan duel odds to win the
21:06NBA championship right now. And the Warriors are fifth. And wow, number four, somebody jumped them
21:13because they were they were fourth or fifth when the Lakers were still right in the playoffs. The
21:18team that jumped them is the team that they would play. The Minnesota is number four. OKC is number
21:23one. So if you win this series, you have to play number four in the odds, then beat number one and
21:30then beat number two or number three, presumably. And we're presuming that Boston and Cleveland both win
21:35their series, which we don't know that they'll do that. But that's your road right now as a five
21:41overall in the NBA. You're going to have to beat not one, not two, but three of the four ahead of you.
21:48This is the biggest game in Jimmy Butler's Warriors career. And I don't think any other game is close.
21:54It's the biggest game since like game five against the Lakers. I mean, game seven against Sacramento.
22:02Sacramento? What are we talking about here? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I find this one to be bigger than game six
22:09against Sacramento in this building because they lost it. And then they still lost it. Well, Stiney lost it.
22:16Yeah, no doubt. Yeah. And they try to lose this one, too. Stiney. Guru. Stiney. Guru.
22:21This whole city has got to stand up to Matt Steinmetz and see if they can get a victory tonight.