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00:00Leave it up to the experts, as they say right here on the early line.
00:03Sometimes we need a lot of help, and particularly in horse racing, I need a ton of help.
00:07I'm Donnie Wrightsad, he's Joe Ranieri, and I need to welcome in Alexa Zepp here of the Daily Racing Form,
00:12and also can see every Friday right here on the Sports Grid Network.
00:16Thank you so much for joining us, because I really need some help here, Alexa.
00:21Of course. Happy to talk horses anytime.
00:25I love this. This will be fun. We'll have a great segment here. We'll kick it off.
00:28I need to ask you a question first, though. Your love for horse racing. How did you get into it?
00:33I got into it through competitive wagering, actually.
00:37Yes!
00:37Kind of an interesting introduction to the sport. Yeah, so I play in tournaments all around the country, you know, betting on them.
00:45And that's how I got involved like seven or eight years ago, and through that, I got involved in ownership,
00:49started my own racing syndicate, and now work for the Daily Racing Form as a handicapper.
00:54Ooh! I like it.
00:56All right, now, let me ask you a question, though, because we did get some breaking news overnight.
01:00Looks like Baffert's only going with one horse in the derby tomorrow.
01:06What do we know about that, and what should we know about the horse that has been inserted in its place?
01:11Yeah, so Rodriguez is out, which was definitely a speed risk, because I wasn't going to play him, so I'm not too sad about it.
01:21But Baeza's in, which I'm very excited about. There's a lot of hype around Baeza, so this horse kind of had a tough go of it being on the alternate entry.
01:29In horse racing, in order to make the derby field, you have to get points, and Baeza ran second in the Santa Anita Derby,
01:36and because that race only had five horses, the points awarded were reduced.
01:41Normally, second place would have got him in, but it didn't. He was just short.
01:44So now he's in, and he is really interesting.
01:48His mama was the mama for the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner, and she also gave birth to 2024 Kentucky Derby contender Doorknock,
01:59who Jason Wirth, MLB star, owned, and then didn't win, but ended up winning the Belmont.
02:06So this mare is just cranking out superstars, so it's cool to see another one in three years in a row.
02:10I love to talk handicapping, specifically with sports that I'm not too familiar with in the handicapping process.
02:17Love Major League Baseball, love handicapping the NFL.
02:20Tell me how you get the process of handicapping the Kentucky Derby here.
02:24Well, you know, handicapping in general is an art, right?
02:27There's no exact way, exact science to do it.
02:30So, you know, we have the Daily Racing Forum.
02:32There's a million angles you can look at.
02:35For the derby specifically, it's such a big race, right?
02:38There's 20 horses in this field.
02:39Herd dynamics really come to play, which you don't always have in a race if you only have five to eight horses,
02:46and it's not that long, but this is a long race with a ton of horses,
02:49so you really have to take a look at all the horses' running styles, see how you think it's going to set up.
02:55Who's going to go out early?
02:56Is there going to be a big, fast duel early where all those horses are going to get tired,
03:00and then the horses are going to come screaming late,
03:02or do you think there's a standout who's just going to get loose on the lead?
03:05So that's kind of my approach is starting to understand the pace setup and the pace dynamics in the race.
03:11Well, that's the interesting thing here, right?
03:15Because if it's too fast, you know, the closers might not have it.
03:20Now, you mentioned with 20 horses, there's going to be somebody going out to the lead.
03:25Rodriguez was one of them we thought that would set the pace.
03:28Some people believe that this is going to be flying.
03:31This could be one of the fastest paces we've seen.
03:34Are you buying that?
03:35Is there a closer here we should be looking at?
03:37Yeah, I think the Derby tends to have a fast pace.
03:41There's just so much at play.
03:43And what's interesting is a ton of the speed drew to the inside.
03:47So all the major speed is on the inside, which is a total bummer for them,
03:52but it does open up the outside of the field.
03:54So I like, too, in here, I do like the favorite journalism.
03:57He has a really good running style for this Derby.
03:59He's clearly the best figures.
04:01He's run faster speed figures than typically win the Kentucky Derby.
04:05He has been running in small fields, though, out in California.
04:10So that's something you could say, well, he's done really well, but who has he beaten?
04:14He hasn't beaten that many horses in his most recent start,
04:17but it was Rodriguez who now is out,
04:20Baeza who's now in, and Citizen Bull who's the other Baffert horse on the inside.
04:24So he's going to be fairly low odds, probably three to one, maybe plus 300, but a good bet.
04:31And then I also like Sandman, who's the strongest closer in the race.
04:35This horse basically went to his knees in the Southwest at the break.
04:39It was scary.
04:40You're like, oh, my gosh, what's happening?
04:42And then he came back and just overcame so much in that race.
04:46He didn't win.
04:46He got second.
04:48Since then, he won the Arkansas Derby.
04:500 for 3 at Churchill, but those were early in his career.
04:54I like Sandman.
04:55And he'll be a longer price, maybe like four or five to one if you're looking for a big long shot.
05:00The Japanese contingent, Luxor Cafe is the number seven.
05:04Japanese contingent is getting stronger and stronger every single year.
05:08And, you know, they're always a little bit of a wild card
05:10because we don't know how they're going to do when they come over here.
05:13But he looks pretty commanding in all of his starts so far.
05:17So many angles to play into it.
05:19It's so much fun to talk about the Kentucky Derby.
05:20But also one thing that usually creeps into it is by the, let's say late in the week,
05:24we know what the weather conditions are.
05:25Does that change a handicapping strategy if you have a super fast track, like a muddy track?
05:29Talk to us about how you anticipate what the track conditions will be
05:32and how you factor it into the horse that you might like.
05:35It definitely matters, especially in these young races with horses.
05:38So the Derby is only for three-year-olds.
05:41Horses don't start their careers until their two-year-old year.
05:43Some of them even their three-year-old years.
05:45So they're all babies.
05:46They're all a little bit green.
05:47And, yeah, we're expecting to get quite a bit of rain or crossing our fingers it holds off.
05:53But, I mean, a muddy track.
05:55So think about it.
05:55Like, when you have all that mud and dirt flying in your face,
05:58some horses really do not like that.
06:00They don't respond well to it.
06:01Some horses thrive in it.
06:02It definitely, if it's really sloppy, it carries speed, I think.
06:07I think any weather kind of carries speed.
06:09If it's muddy, it kind of gets cuppy, right?
06:12And it can be harder for those horses to make up momentum and get rolling at the end.
06:17So the weather definitely is a factor.
06:21And we often have it at the Kentucky Derby, it seems.
06:23It's always raining.
06:26Well, it's funny.
06:27I mean, the big thing this year, right, after being slapped on the wrist and turned in the corner,
06:32Baffert had not been allowed to be at the Kentucky Derby.
06:36He's back.
06:37One of his horses is done.
06:39But is there any way Citizen Bull takes the lead and he's there at the end if he can get out in front?
06:45Because I don't think the one post has ever won the Derby.
06:48Is that correct?
06:50The only post that has the one is actually the 17 hole, which is Sandman.
06:54So when I was there at the draw, when that one was drawn, you know, the whole crowd ood.
06:58But I think it's actually a decent post.
07:01But Citizen Bull, you're right.
07:02Like, he's going to want to get out to the lead.
07:04It's interesting.
07:05He's the two-year-old champion.
07:06Typically, the two-year-old champion, if they make the Derby, is going to be the favorite or close to it.
07:13And we've given him, you know, a morning line of 20 to 1 or plus 2,000.
07:16So there's definitely some hesitance there.
07:20I mean, he ran in the Santa Anita Derby and just was not impressive.
07:24Bob has said that he didn't have him cranked up.
07:27Like, now he's ready for the Santa Anita Derby.
07:29Now he's looking good.
07:30You know, but I don't think Bob typically rolls like that.
07:36I think usually he tries to have his horses ready for all those big races.
07:39So I'm fading him.
07:41Drawing the one hole, definitely a bummer when you want to get out to the lead.
07:46I mean, you can easily get pinned on the rail.
07:48But last year, Doorknock, Jason Worth's horse, drew the one hole.
07:51And Doorknock was the kind of horse where he had hats to get the lead or the race is over for him.
07:56And it was over before it even began.
07:58So it's definitely a tough post-position draw.
08:01And I am fading him.
08:02Whether or not you love horse racing, everybody loves the Kentucky Derby because the pageantry, the pomp and circumstance is so much fun.
08:10What's a Derby Day look like to you, Alexa, when you go?
08:13Oh, my.
08:14It's just the best.
08:16I got my hat here that I'll be, you know, sporting.
08:18I mean, the fashion, the fun.
08:20It is such a fun couple of days.
08:23Today's Oaks Day, so the ladies run.
08:24And then tomorrow, Derby Day.
08:26I mean, they changed it recently.
08:28If you have a seat, it's all-inclusive.
08:29So mint, juleps, food, horses, it is a ball.
08:34I encourage everyone at some point to try to get to at least to some cool horse race, but definitely the Kentucky Derby.
08:40We got about 30 seconds left.
08:42Recap once again who you like for the Kentucky Derby tomorrow, the big day.
08:46Yes.
08:47So I like journalism on top.
08:49Underneath, I would play Sandman, who's a 17.
08:52Luxor Cafe is the seven horse at a long shot, 15 to one.
08:57And then Baeza, who's drawn into the field as the alternate entry, so will be the 21 horse.
09:04It's one to play.
09:04And then today in the Oaks, I think you can play quiet side for a price and combine her with the favorite good cheer who's undefeated.
09:13Fantastic stuff.
09:14Alexis Zepp of the Daily Racing Forum and the Sports Grid Network.
09:17Thanks so much for joining us today with your expertise.