TaiwanPlus sits down with Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, to discuss how the U.S.-Taiwan relationship stands 100 days into Donald Trump's second term.
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00:00So, Bonnie, we're 100 days into the second Trump administration.
00:04At this point, what do you see as being the main changes and challenges in the U.S.-Taiwan
00:09relationship?
00:10Well, I think in some ways we've seen the U.S.-Taiwan relationship on automatic pilot.
00:16That is, the usual meetings, interactions between our governments, certainly security
00:25cooperation, interactions between AIT and the government in Taiwan.
00:31I think that's all been just routine.
00:34There are, of course, other things that are going on regarding the tariffs.
00:39I think that there have been very intense conversations between Taiwan's government and
00:45the Trump administration on issues related to trade, although my understanding is that
00:52at least as of today, the negotiations have not yet begun on how Taiwan is going to address
01:01some of U.S. concerns and get those tariffs lowered.
01:05And lastly, I will say that what has been pretty much on hold has been negotiations on the 21st
01:16century trade agreement between the United States and Taiwan, which was not quite finished in
01:22the Biden administration, and it remains to be seen whether those will actually get across
01:28the finish line in the Trump administration.
01:30We've seen some recent polls published by Brookings and the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation
01:36showing that perceptions of the U.S. among Taiwanese people have turned more negative recently.
01:42There's a lot of concern around tariffs and around the U.S. as a reliable partner.
01:46If this trend continues, how might that affect the relationship?
01:50Well, the first point I'd like to make is that I think that there are concerns about U.S.
01:56reliability in many allied capitals and partner capitals around the world.
02:02So Taiwan is certainly not alone.
02:04But my guess is that public opinion will probably stabilize but may not go up significantly, given
02:16that there's just a lot of, I think, going to be continued uncertainty in the U.S. policies
02:23toward many countries around the world, including Taiwan.
02:27However, there are some things that will remain different from the Biden administration.
02:32For example, President Joe Biden said four times that if China were to attack Taiwan, that he would
02:40come to Taiwan's defense and Trump has, it appears, decided that he will not reiterate those statements, but he will not do so because, at least from what he has said, he believes that remaining ambiguous, not showing his hand is really what gives him leverage in any negotiations with China.
03:04It is not an indication that the United States would not come to Taiwan's defense if China were
03:11to attack.
03:13While Trump has paused the tariffs on Taiwan and most other countries, China and the U.S. continue
03:18to tariff each other at rates of more than 100 percent.
03:22How might a long-term trade war between the U.S. and China affect the security situation in
03:27the Taiwan Strait?
03:28If the tariffs remain in effect, we are likely to see a decoupling between the United States
03:34and China.
03:35That is an end virtually to most trade between the United States and Taiwan.
03:44And I think that the economic impact on both the United States and China would be severe.
03:50Some people say it would be bigger on the United States, but there's no doubt that there would
03:54be a significant impact on China.
03:57There was one report I read today that if the United States continues the tariffs at this
04:04level, there will be an additional 16 million Chinese people out of work, unemployed.
04:11And so I think that that would be worrisome to Xi Jinping.
04:15I believe that economic stress and risk of social stability in China would make it less likely
04:24that Xi Jinping would use force against Taiwan.
04:28Not more likely.
04:29That doesn't mean that PLA exercises would stop or that the rhetoric would change, the
04:36threats, all of the cyber attacks against Taiwan.
04:39The preparations would continue.
04:42But I think actual use of force against Taiwan is less likely to take place if China is in a
04:48situation where it is under a great deal of stress.
04:51That means that there will be some serious risks against China.
04:54No doubt about it.
04:55It depends on the way that the world should be judged by China, China, whether or not a
04:55country of peasants can be affected by China.
04:56No doubt about it.
04:58And they simply don't think about them.
04:58They don't think about it would be
05:08that they don't think about it.
05:11The theory does not have to be judged by China.