On "Forbes Newsroom," Stevie O'Brien, Government and Public Policy Specialist at McMillan, discussed the results of Canada's prime minister election, and the factors that led to the Liberal Party's Mark Carney scoring a victory.
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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now is
00:08Stevie O'Brien, lawyer and government and public policy expert with McMillan. Stevie, thank you so
00:13much for joining me. Thank you for having me. It is an historic conversation. We are about to have
00:19Canada had an election on Monday night. And our first conversation was at the beginning of January.
00:24And that was when Prime Minister Dustin Trudeau was stepping down. And he told me that liberals
00:29were polling the lowest they had ever been in modern history. Well, less than four months later,
00:35the Liberal Party in Canada made quite the comeback. Mark Carney was elected as Prime
00:39Minister. Talk to us exactly how this happened. What's the reaction? Tell us more.
00:45So this was a historic turnaround, sort of unprecedented in Canadian politics. You're
00:52right. Our first conversation, the liberals were around 16%. And at the end of last night,
00:58they were, you know, they won the popular vote. They won the most seats in the House. There's still
01:03some ballots being counted. So the possibility of a majority government is still alive. But but either
01:08way, they formed government with the end. It's something that, you know, four months ago, we wouldn't
01:14have believed could happen. I'd say the reasons there are a couple triggering events. So the resignation
01:21of Prime Minister Trudeau, followed quickly by a very fast liberal leadership convention, which brought in
01:29Mark Carney, sort of an outsider and non, you know, he's not a politician, but he's a world class
01:36economist. You also match that with the inauguration of President Trump and the conversations about tariffs
01:43in the 51st state. And all of those things kind of came together to give the Liberal Party a massive
01:51surge in the polls.
01:53Yeah, so I want to talk about that a little further, because we had another conversation in March. And
01:57that's when Mark Carney, he overwhelmingly won in a landslide to replace Trudeau. How has he been doing?
02:03Apparently, Canadians think pretty good if he won again last night.
02:07You know what he's been doing? He's been doing an excellent job. I think he's meeting the moment.
02:13We're not in Canada looking for theatrics. I think we want bland competence. And that is what he's got
02:22in spades.
02:24And Pierre Polyev, who was the conservative leader, he was called Maple Maga. And it's very clear based on
02:31what has happened the past couple of months, that Canada is rejecting Trump, Trumpism,
02:36anything that looks or resembles President Trump, they don't want. And what was Mark Carney's
02:43platform? Was it that he's not Trump, that he's not theatrical, that he is pushing that type of
02:49politic away?
02:51It was a much more positive campaign. The Liberals ran on positivity and on hope, and the Conservatives
02:58sort of ran on fear and a need for change. And ultimately, I think that the main question,
03:04the main fear based question, at least of this election was, who do Canadians fear more,
03:10the Liberals or Donald Trump? And I think we saw last night that they are more afraid of Donald
03:16Trump than they are about a fourth Liberal term.
03:20I think something that has stuck out in my last conversation with you is that Americans that I've
03:26talked to, politicians I've talked to in America, weren't taking President Trump so seriously when he
03:31said things like, Justin Trudeau is the Governor Trudeau, not Prime Minister Trudeau. He wants to
03:37make Canada the 51st state. Americans just thought that was more hyperbole from President Trump.
03:42Canadians, you told me last time, take that really seriously, even more so than the tariff
03:47situation. They were very angry about that type of talk. And President Trump posted on Truth Social
03:54something to the effect yesterday of Canada. I'll actually read it. He wrote this,
03:59good luck to the great people of Canada, elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your
04:04taxes in half, increase your military power for free to the highest level in the world, have your
04:09car, steel, aluminum, lumber, energy, and all other businesses quadruple in size with zero tariffs or
04:15taxes. If Canada becomes the cherished 51st state of the United States of America, no more artificially
04:21drawn line from many years ago. Look how beautiful this landmass would be free access with no border,
04:28all positives with no negatives. It was meant to be America can no longer subsidize Canada with the
04:33hundreds of billions of dollars a year that we have been spending in the past. It makes no sense
04:38unless Canada is a state. Was that do you believe the nail in the coffin there that it was time to elect
04:45or keep Mark Carney in power, reject the conservatives, reject Donald Trump? What do you think?
04:52I definitely think that President Trump's comments about the 51st state and sort of threats about
04:59sovereignty are absolutely the motivating factor behind many people voting liberal and the sort of
05:07the collapse of some of our smaller, because we're not a two-party system, we're normally a four or five
05:12party system, but all of the smaller parties sort of collapsed their vote to support the liberals to
05:19stand up to this threat. I think that most Canadians still find it, you know, very offensive and a very
05:26concerning and are happy that Prime Minister Carney's sort of never 51 is a catchphrase, elbows up a hockey
05:36term is another, is another saying that is becoming quite popular here. And there are people at rallies
05:43with hockey sticks with Canadian flags. So people are concerned, and they think that Prime Minister Carney
05:50will be the best to sort of guide through this sort of tumultuous time in our relationship.
05:56As you said, this is a historic election in unprecedented time. It was a major comeback for the Liberal Party.
06:02The Conservative leader, Paliyev, he lost his parliamentary seat. But how badly did Conservatives
06:08take a beating last night? Or, I mean, as you noted, it is still pretty close.
06:13So, except it is, it is close between a minority and a majority government. The Liberals have definitely
06:20won the election. A majority just means they don't need to barter with some of the smaller parties
06:27to have their legislation approved. They would have been able to just sort of move, move things
06:33forward a lot easier. The, the, another interesting thing, and this, this election was full of twists
06:41and turns. So yes, Paliyev lost his seat, which he had held for 20 years. At the same time, the Conservatives
06:48did lose, but they had polled at the highest percentage they have polled in modern history. And they picked up
06:54seats that they didn't have in the last election. So he can arguably say he did, he did very well in this
07:02election. The Liberals just did better, completely unexpectedly better. So I think there's going to be a big
07:08conversation within the Conservative Party about what to do next. You had mentioned that there was a full
07:14rejection of Maple MAGA, or Timbit Trump, as others have called him. But I think, I think what we see in the polls is that
07:24actually there were, there was 40%, he received over 40% of the vote. So that's a lot of people who were not
07:30turned off by his rhetoric, by Paliyev's slogans and sort of attack dog style. Many liked that. Many did not.
07:42I guess my next question, I don't know if it's too early, but is there any idea in the Conservative Party
07:47of where they go from here? Because as you said, it's kind of like a mixed bag. Hey, 40% still likes this
07:52message. I mean, Paliyev did lose a seat that he held for years. He didn't become Prime Minister. But
07:58is there any indication of where Conservatives go next? What direction they take?
08:03I think the dust is going to have to settle. And I think there's going to be a lot of conversations,
08:08and probably a lot of infighting about what the direction to go is, whether to keep and try again,
08:17maybe in another couple of years, minority governments don't tend to last a full mandate.
08:22Or to change course. And I think they're going to have to do a lot of reflection. For the last two
08:30years, they looked like they were sailing into a super majority. They were 26 points ahead in the
08:35polls. And they lost that in the last three months. And I think everybody's still reeling.
08:42And I think it's really interesting, because when you're looking at America now, and especially in
08:45November on, the inverse has happened, where Democrats really had to take a look inward,
08:51there's still a lot of infighting in that party of what direction we choose. But I want to read some
08:55quotes from Mark Carney last night. He said this, quote, President Trump is trying to break us so that
09:01American America can own us. That will never ever happen. Prime Minister also said this, we are over the
09:07shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons. And our old relationship with the
09:12United States, a relationship based on steadily increased integration is over. As we know,
09:18Canada is a neighbor of the United States, longstanding allies, one of our biggest trade
09:23partners. I mean, where does this relationship go when he's saying the old relationship is over,
09:28saying things like America betrayal? What happens next? What do Canadians want to see from Mark Carney
09:33when it comes to dealing with President Trump in America?
09:36So I think Canadians did feel a great sense of betrayal. And as we've talked before, not just
09:43sort of with the large tariffs, but also this sort of Governor Trudeau and the 51st state rhetoric over
09:52and over again, comments that Canada shouldn't exist as a country, very offended. The relationship is
09:59not what it was. I think what Canadians wanted, Carney, and one of the reasons that he won is he
10:06will, he has impeccable financial credentials. He is the man for the moment. He was former governor of
10:13the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. He was at Goldman Sachs. He's been in our department. He
10:18helped Canada through the 08 financial crisis. He's the man for the moment. So I think they're expecting
10:25him to negotiate with President Trump a new trade deal, but also to use his international network
10:33to build closer ties for Canada with our European and other trading partners and to really strongly
10:42look to diversify who we trade with. You mentioned in the quote you were reading from Truth Social
10:49about the billions of dollars of subsidies. So much of that is related to oil that flows from
10:58Canada to the United States at a fair discount. But if we look to find other markets for that oil,
11:07the United States will actually have to purchase more expensive oil from somewhere else. And
11:10while the trade balance might even out, I don't think that's what the American consumer wants,
11:16more expensive oil or gas. I'm curious what Canadians want to see with these tariff talks,
11:22because when it comes to this, President Trump, I know from American politics, doesn't want to
11:27appear weak. He wants to see leaders coming to him to strike a deal. I know when it comes to China,
11:34the president, President Xi, he's not coming to the table. President Trump has retaliated with
11:39exorbitant tariffs. There's a tit for tat there. What do Canadians want to see with Prime Minister
11:45Carney? Do they want to see this tough talk? Because this is very tough rhetoric against
11:50America. What do they want to see from there? Well, I think in when President Trump was elected
11:56the first time, he took a tough stance with respect to trade and renegotiate. He sort of tore up NAFTA
12:04and forced a renegotiation of the trade agreement in North America. I think what we would like to see
12:09is let's go back to that table. Let's sit down as neighbours and friends and figure this out as a
12:16continent. And that's what we're hoping to do. And that's what I think they hope that Prime Minister
12:23Carney is able to do. I would note that the president and the Prime Minister had a very cordial,
12:29positive conversation at the beginning of April. And so continuing on that trajectory is, I think,
12:35is it the goal? Stevie, in our past conversations, I mean, I am struck by how much has changed,
12:42how historic and unprecedented this election is. And I always really appreciate the Canadian
12:47perspective. So from that, do you think we're missing anything from this conversation?
12:54So this election was largely influenced by what was happening south of our border. And the comments
13:03made by President Trump had impacts on our polls, for sure. But there is another story that was also
13:10going on, sort of, if that was the top line ballot issue, the second one was cost of living. And I think
13:18that Canadians are still struggling with that, as many, you know, in America, Australia, Britain are.
13:24And that that, I think, Prime Minister Carney is also going to need to spend some time focusing on
13:31housing, focusing on the cost of groceries. And so is it and it's that challenge, she's gonna have to
13:39balance that while still spending money on defense and looking for new trading partners.
13:43Well, this fascinating conversation once again, and I hope we can talk as Prime Minister Carney
13:48continues on his journey as the leader of Canada. Thank you again so much for the conversation.
13:53You're welcome back anytime.
13:56My pleasure. Thank you so much.