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00:00Live right here on this Monday on the early line on SportsGrid, a doubleheader of NBA playoff action on this Monday night.
00:08Two game fours so that all eight of our opening round playoff series will have seen their fourth game.
00:14The first one, DRS, is maybe the most important series through the entirety of the opening round of this NBA postseason in your eyes.
00:23Game number four tonight in San Francisco between the Golden State Warriors and the two seed, the Houston Rockets.
00:31The regular season referendum from the mind of DRS.
00:36Golden State with a victory on Saturday, 104-93.
00:39The Dubs have opened up a 2-1 series lead.
00:43They were a three-point home favorite on Saturday, even without Jimmy Butler.
00:48They win that game behind 36 points from Steph Curry.
00:51Tonight, DRS, a similar number, three and a half points in favor of the Dubs.
00:57A total now at 2-0-3 on its way up because DRS, as the Warriors said yesterday, there is a, quote, belief that Jimmy Butler is set to return for game number four tonight.
01:12Yeah, and here's the problem.
01:14I thought the Houston Rockets would be able to win this series before game number one.
01:17I'm wildly disappointed in the Rockets I was after game number one.
01:22Game number two?
01:23Hey, look at that.
01:24Riding the ship.
01:25Get a good performance at a superstar player.
01:27All right, we're in this series.
01:29Let's go back to Golden State.
01:31And you get the bonus of Jimmy Butler not being available in game number three.
01:36Now's your chance, Houston.
01:37Win game number three.
01:39Roll the dice in game number four.
01:40But you head back to Houston, worst case scenario, 2-2 with home court advantage, and away you go.
01:46Jimmy Butler doesn't play.
01:47You get beat in that game.
01:49And now my morale for the Houston Rockets winning this series is at an all-time low.
01:55So I look at that price point today of three and a half, and I say to myself, there's no way, shape, or form.
02:00I want the Houston Rockets.
02:01Because if Jimmy Butler does come back to play when you couldn't beat him with Jimmy Butler, what gives me the advantage of saying now's the time to back the Houston Rockets?
02:10I don't want to be out on the Rockets, but it feels like I should be, Ben.
02:14Yeah, DRS, it really does feel like that.
02:19And again, we can question what that means.
02:21And we will look at the series odds in just a moment for the NBA regular season, that the two seed with home floor advantage, despite the seven seed having that playoff pedigree, has a guy like Jimmy Butler added to the fold.
02:34They make their way through the play-in tournament.
02:37They were the series' outright favorites, and now the favorites for sure to win this opening round set and maybe do so rather comfortably in five games.
02:46Of course, a 2-1 series lead entering game for tonight, three and a half point favorite.
02:51DRS, in terms of the total, now back to 2-0-3.
02:55We have seen all three games so far work their way under 203 points at most.
03:02And as we have seen for the Rockets, Houston has only seen the century mark once it was in the game to win last week.
03:12DRS, it's also really interesting, because maybe you're not believing in the Houston Rockets, and I don't really fault you in thinking so.
03:19Can the Rockets win outright tonight?
03:21Perhaps.
03:22But if Houston is going to do so, one guy, one guy has to go over his points prop, and that's Jalen Green.
03:3017 and a half points is the prop tonight for the young Houston star.
03:34But I say star almost cautiously, because in game number one, seven points.
03:40Called him out entering game number two.
03:42Green himself admitting he had some playoff nerves entering his first career playoff game.
03:48How does he respond?
03:49Sensationally.
03:5038 points.
03:51Eight made triples in game number two.
03:54The lone game the Rockets have won so far in this set.
03:58How does he respond in his first road playoff game?
04:01Awfully.
04:01Nine points on Saturday against Golden State.
04:05If Houston is going to win, if Houston is going to make something of this opening round series, Jalen Green must go over 17 and a half points.
04:15Yeah, he really has to.
04:16And also, I do like the fact that we have these extended series, right?
04:19And the teams start to hate each other.
04:21Draymond Green, Jalen Green going after it here.
04:23And all this guy does is talk.
04:24That's why he's left in his game.
04:26So I look for maybe one of those performances out of Jalen Green.
04:28He goes, I'm better than this.
04:30And there's no way I'm going to let Jalen Green show me up here again in his own building.
04:33I got to have a good performance.
04:34And a good performance doesn't mean 36 points.
04:37You're just asking for 20 points in a road game with a total of around 20.
04:41That's what should happen.
04:42Like if Jalen Green goes for 11 points, they're not winning this basketball game.
04:45So you know me, Ben.
04:46I love correlated plays that say, tell me a story where the Rockets don't win this game but keep it close and Jalen Green scores 10 points.
04:53Or tell me a better story that the Rockets win this game and Jalen Green scores 14 points.
04:57It's not happening.
04:58He needs a big night tonight.
04:59But the hype I had for the Rockets and the anger towards the odds market as I look at it now, it's like, hey, maybe the odds market was right.
05:07But if the Rockets can win this game, I'll be buying back in.
05:11But so demoralizing was that game three loss.
05:13It really was.
05:13We'll talk more about DRS's referendum for the Rockets up next on the early line.
05:20Getting you set for a doubleheader of NBA playoff action on this Monday night.
05:24We start with the nightcap in the most intriguing and compelling of our two NBA playoff games.
05:31The Rockets trying to even up a series at two game apiece.
05:34Golden State, the home team tonight, inside the Chase Center, looking to take that commanding 3-1 series advantage.
05:41The Dubs a three-and-a-half point home favorite.
05:44Total stands at 2-0-3.
05:46Again, DRS.
05:47Golden State winning on Saturday without Jimmy Butler by 11.
05:51104-93.
05:52Covering as a three-point home favorite.
05:54Expecting to have Jimmy Butler back tonight.
05:58He has a points prop listed.
06:00The Warriors have, quote, belief that Jimmy Butler will return for game number four after the hard fall early in game number two.
06:0819-and-a-half, that points prop for Butler entering game number four right now.
06:13It's funny because, again, we weren't sure he's going to come back.
06:16They're saying he's coming back, which always leaves you up in the air like, well, if you do come back to an NBA game,
06:21it's not like, hey, Jimmy, give me 10-15 minutes here, can you?
06:24No, he's going to be in the starting lineup, and you expect him to be effective.
06:27So knowing Jimmy Butler when he's healthy and playing full minutes, which means 30-plus,
06:32that 19-and-a-half probably feels like a steal.
06:34Like, we understand the playoffs are run-through-your superstars,
06:37and Jimmy Butler was doing that to start the playoffs before he got injured.
06:41I just want to know the pain threshold that he has, and it doesn't sound like it's an injury.
06:45Like, let's just say he can re-aggregate an ankle or re-aggregate a hamstring injury.
06:49It's probably just, okay, I might land on the hip, I have extra padding,
06:51but I'm fully functional at this point, and I just needed an extra day or two to get my leg back into shape.
06:57So I look at this and say it's a normal stay-away play for me if I want to bet any Jimmy Butler props.
07:02But then you see the 19-and-a-half and go, Don, he's going to play 31 minutes tonight?
07:06He's going to get 20 points if he plays the 31 minutes tonight.
07:09Of course, DRS, he did score 25 in the opening game of this series.
07:14In Houston, the only full game that he has played.
07:18We mentioned we would look at where the odds stand entering game number four.
07:22The Rockets' referendum for the sanctity of the regular season.
07:27As Donnie Wright's side sees it.
07:29Golden State minus 360 to win this series outright.
07:33The most likely amount of games and the most likely amount of time for Golden State to win this series is in six at plus 210.
07:43But Golden State doing so, DRS, even in a gentleman's sweep in H-down, is plus 220, only 10 cents behind.
07:50We question, right, what game two's importance would be late last week.
07:55If the Rockets lost both of their games, having home court advantage as the two seed, you were done watching the regular season in its entirety.
08:05If Houston loses tonight, as expected, as a slight road underdog in San Francisco, to fall in that 3-1 series hole, how are you going to feel about the Rockets, the referendum, and the regular season?
08:18Yeah, it's going to be rough at this point.
08:20Yeah, but again, we talk about the zigzag theater, which bounces back, and you have two good basketball teams at the playoffs, and they understand.
08:26Like, even though they're a young team in the playoffs, they're still the two seed that won a lot of games in the regular season.
08:30You know you can't lose this game.
08:32You go down 3-1, the series is effectively over.
08:34I understand Golden State understands that concept of winning multiple championships.
08:37Hey, when you have a team down, make sure you continue to keep them down and don't give them hope.
08:42We'll see the way it plays out.
08:43But I'm just hoping from a fan perspective, for me and my sanity, that Houston can wake up, win this basketball game, go home, and say, okay, best of three.
08:51We're in the series now.
08:53We had two games we didn't play so well, two games we played extremely well.
08:56Now let's use this home court advantage to our advantage and try to get a lead in here.
09:00But that's going to come today.
09:01And also, you're looking at the concept of 61% of the bets coming in here on Golden State, 54% of the money coming in on Golden State.
09:07It's not as crazy as I thought it would be because usually after game number three, no Jimmy Butler, no Jimmy's back.
09:13It's only 3-1⁄2.
09:14If they win the game, they'll probably cover the 3-1⁄2.
09:16That's not a ton of support publicly, at least with the FanDuel Sportsbook, that I thought it would be.
09:21So me looking at that price point of the Houston Rockets at 3-1⁄2, just reading the lines, it looks like it's a Houston Rockets line tonight, to be honest.
09:29It kind of is, DRS.
09:31And again, Golden State, a minus 360 favorite.
09:34It feels as though, with the Warriors up 2-1 and a 3-1⁄2 point favorite tonight, that this should be where the Warriors shine, right?
09:42That playoff pedigree was the whole reason they were that series' outright favorite entering and, of course, playing some really good basketball after the acquisition of Jimmy Butler in early February, despite not having home floor advantage.
09:55But what is really interesting, when you kind of examine those series' odds further, DRS, you would expect, for a Golden State team that is likely to win this set in six games, plus 210, for a Golden State team that could win this in five, plus 220, maybe that series' spread would now be 2-1⁄2 games.
10:12It's not.
10:13It's only a game and a half in favor of Golden State and minus 170 in terms of the juice you would have to pay to back the dubs in that number.
10:23Again, for me, it's rather simple.
10:25If you think Houston wins outright tonight, if you think the Rockets even make this game close at all, single digits, five points or fewer, it's Jalen Green over 17-1⁄2.
10:35Without that, the Rockets really have little chance.
10:39Exactly.
10:39Take a look at maybe some three-point props where you know Steph's going to come to play.
10:42It's his home building.
10:43He'll get it cranking.
10:44Four-and-a-half is his three-point number, which means five to cash it in.
10:47But I'm looking at Jimmy Butler.
10:48This is one of those also where we'll get information throughout the day.
10:51You'll be able to watch the pregame warm-ups and make a decision because you understand, like, once you hear no restrictions sent on Jimmy Butler, he's cashing that 20 points tonight.
11:00I just don't know if I can bet that early in the morning, understanding what we have.
11:03Because when the game starts, if he's a little bit hobbled at that point but gutting it out, you'll know right away.
11:09Maybe it's more of an in-game thing.
11:10But I just need to see the pregame.
11:12Jimmy Butler's moving around good.
11:13Looks like he's going to be fine.
11:14Talk to him earlier.
11:15No restrictions.
11:16Then I'd love him to get 20-plus points tonight.
11:19Yeah, DRS, it could be a discount if he is even close to 100%, especially in a playoff atmosphere.
11:25One full game so far in a Golden State uniform in the playoffs, 25 points in Game 1 against Houston.
11:32We are expecting a sweep tonight in South Beach between the Heat and the Cavaliers.
11:37Cleveland, an eight-and-a-half-point road favorite for what could be our fourth and final game in this opening round set.
11:42Total at 2-11-and-a-half now, DRS.
11:46Will the Heat have any resolve maybe to even make this game competitive and potentially stave off elimination?
11:54Yeah, understand this.
11:54If you're betting this game, the Heat are at home, and it's been having that graphic here at nine.
11:58It currently sits at the FanDuel Sportsbook at eight-and-a-half.
12:01You just need to bet the Miami Heat in the first quarter and or the first half.
12:05Because understand this, if the Heat are down double digits at the break, they're not fighting back and clawing to a victory to get us back to Cleveland.
12:13It's just a human element where they know in the Heat locker room they are not winning this series.
12:18But you can still say as a coach with their expulsor and sit in front of that team before you take your home court,
12:23hey, guys, let's give it all we got and see what happens here.
12:26And we'll take it one game at a time, which is what he's supposed to say.
12:28But if you don't respond to that in the first half, you're not responding in the second.
12:32And it will be a foregone conclusion that they'll probably get slapped by double digits.
12:36So if I'm betting this game, which I won't from a Heat perspective, the only angle I would play is taking the Heat early to say,
12:42hey, you never know, and then you find out that you do know and the series is over.
12:48I don't want to wait around for that.
12:50Yeah, DRS, it's a good point, right?
12:52Miami was really in each of the opening two games in Cleveland, despite giving up more than 120 points
12:58and not even covering in game number one, losing by 21.
13:02But they were down by only a single possession or around six points with less than a minute in that third quarter
13:07before Cleveland pulled away in the fourth and final in the opening game of this series.
13:12It was really competitive back and forth for most of game number two before Cleveland ended up winning by nine.
13:18And the Cavaliers were only a five and a half point favorite over the weekend against the Heat
13:23before they won by nearly 40 in the first game in Miami.
13:28I'm expecting Cleveland to sweep tonight.
13:30Now, is Cleveland going to cover as an eight and a half point favorite?
13:34That's a different story.
13:35DRS, you have always said, if there is a resolve for a team that is looking likely to be swept,
13:41it's in game three.
13:42Miami showed us nothing.
13:44Will they show us something here in game four?
13:47A little bit skeptical.
13:48If it is close, keep an eye on Donovan Mitchell and his points prop.
13:52He had 30 points in each of the opening two games of this series
13:56when it was rather competitive through at least three and a half quarters,
13:59did not need to score a ton in the nearly 40-point route over the weekend.
14:04Here's what I need to know.
14:05Any general managers in South Florida tonight that own a club,
14:09did Tyler Hero already make reservations for a post-game celebration?
14:13That's how you'll know.
14:15Because the one thing we do know, win or lose, Tyler Hero's going out on the town in Miami tonight.
14:20I just need to know if those reservations are in for that post-season celebration tonight.
14:27Why is it just Tyler Hero?
14:29Bam Adebayo doesn't go out?
14:31Davion Mitchell doesn't like to be a man about it.
14:33He's been known to party on big losses that the Heat have taken without a care in the world.
14:41The prop perspective on this Monday from the jack-of-all-trades to start off a new week.
14:47It is TV Tom Becchio of Sports Grid.
14:50Live right here on this Monday morning on the Early Line.
14:53Tom, as always, we appreciate the time.
14:56Hope the weekend was great.
14:57Excited to break down some games with you on this Monday as well.
15:00The weekend was good.
15:02We had a really great show yesterday for pro baseball today.
15:05My personal results for that show were a little bit mixed just because apparently some players don't know how to hit the ball anymore.
15:11But point notwithstanding, I'm ready to get into today.
15:14We are approaching, I'm going to say, the best part of games for the playoffs, especially that second round.
15:19Like, the teams that truly deserve to be there.
15:21Let's get to it.
15:22Let's start off in the NBA playoffs.
15:25Tom and I will talk a little Stanley Cup playoff action before our three hours ends out.
15:31And, of course, when you have the two wonderful hosts of pro baseball today, a couple of plays around MLB on this eight-game Monday slate.
15:38We start with our first of two tonight, Becchio, in the NBA playoffs.
15:42Is it over tonight in South Beach?
15:44The Heat hosts the Cleveland Cavaliers.
15:47Cleveland, the one seed in the Eastern Conference, an eight-and-a-half-point favorite.
15:51Expected to sweep Miami tonight in only four games.
15:55Our total now, Becchio, stands at 2-11-and-a-half.
15:59Again, Cleveland up three games to nothing.
16:01Expected to sweep Miami tonight.
16:04But how competitive are we expecting potentially this fourth and final game to be?
16:09I would expect a team coached by Eric Spolstra to have some type of effort, especially after what we saw from them in the last game.
16:18Really wasn't good overall.
16:19You know, at some point I saw the live spread jump up to, you know, 18 some odd points, whatever.
16:23I expect more from a Spolstra-led team.
16:26Are they still going to lose?
16:27Yes.
16:27The question that you guys were asking in the previous segment is, are they going to cover?
16:31That's a bit of a different story.
16:32So, as I always say, there's a number that I'll be looking for in-game.
16:36And I think that number is five, right?
16:39Eight-and-a-half, nine points.
16:40I'm not sure if they cover that.
16:41Obviously, Cleveland is the far superior team in this matchup.
16:45I want an in-game number of five because that's what I think they can cover.
16:48They get it done.
16:49Miami shows some amount of resilience.
16:52But, ultimately, Cleveland is so, so much better than them.
16:56Yeah, Cleveland should be able to wind this one up here.
16:59Four game, not even a gentleman sweep.
17:00Just wipe them right out and get to round number two as we await the Celtics
17:04and also the Cleveland Cavaliers in those Eastern Conference Finals is the expectation.
17:09Late-night game tonight, Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors.
17:11An embarrassing performance for me, at least, for the Houston Rockets in game number three.
17:15They look to bounce back.
17:16And to open this line, Tom, four-and-a-half.
17:19It's now down to three-and-a-half at FanDuel.
17:21And a total that opened up at 201-and-a-half now sits at 203, bouncing back and forth.
17:27Expectations tonight with Jimmy Butler possible playing again for the Warriors.
17:30What is it tonight between the Rockets and the Warriors for you?
17:33Yeah, Jimmy Butler playing, not playing, whatever it might be.
17:36I think we'd all agree that even if he does play, he's not going to be at 100%.
17:40And, you know, whether he's out there for a bit of a decoy role, you know,
17:43does someone else step up and do the scoring?
17:45As we kind of saw the other game, obviously, you know, Steph's going to do his thing.
17:48But I expect this to be largely what we have seen over the first three games,
17:52where it's going to be a slower pace, physical, lower scoring.
17:55And ultimately, that kind of leads me to Alperin Shangoon under 18-and-a-half points.
18:00You know, he came out on fire on game one, but I'm going to say that was the clear outlier
18:04when he shot 61% from the field, and that has since dropped to 40% and 38% from the field,
18:10as you'd expect when he's going up against Draymond Green.
18:13Again, when we're seeing games barely getting to 200 points,
18:16I don't expect too many players to be pushing past 20, 25 points.
18:19Obviously, Curry is the exception in that.
18:21And we've seen big games from Green, Van Vliet, Thompson doing their thing.
18:25So I think it has to be a well-rounded effort from the Rockets
18:27that are going to keep this close.
18:28I just don't expect Alperin Shangoon to be pushing past 20 points tonight.
18:3326 in game number one, Vecchio, was really the only Rockets starter
18:37who scored more than 11 in that matchup.
18:40To your point, all three games between the Dubs and the Rockets have stayed under.
18:442-0-3 is our total tonight.
18:46That's also the maximum points scored combined in a game so far in this opening round series.
18:52Shangoon's points prop ever so slightly higher than that of Jalen Green at 17-and-a-half.
18:58My thought is that if Houston even makes this game remotely competitive tonight,
19:02Green has to go over that number as he did in game number two with 38 points,
19:07but has only scored in single digits in the other two.
19:10We also saw there for our opening game tonight,
19:13DeAndre Hunter under 12-and-a-half points for Cleveland.
19:16Vecchio, what is it about how we expect game four to play out tonight in South Beach
19:21that leads you to that under?
19:23Yeah, I forgot to touch on this one on the first game,
19:25but a lot of people are going to be seeing the 21 points that he scored in the most recent game.
19:29Darius Garland did not play in that game.
19:31We have to remember that.
19:32He's listed as questionable for tonight, Garland that is.
19:34In the first two games of the series, Hunter scored 0-and-12 points.
19:38And obviously, the 21 is great, but he did that when his role was expanded.
19:42So, again, that is the outlier game, as we see with Changoon in game one.
19:46We shot 61%.
19:47So, if Garland is out tonight, yes, there's a chance that Hunter may go over,
19:51but I'm expecting the game to go under overall.
19:53I just don't expect that role for DeAndre Hunter to be there.
19:56I'm anticipating Garland does play after a couple days of rest.