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00:00Oh, the early line on a Friday. We love it. It's so much fun. The weekend is just about here,
00:05and it's our job to get you ready, as we say, continuously, but also understand the topics
00:09at hand. We just reviewed the NBA games that took place last night. We will handicap the games that
00:14will take place tonight, but sometimes, Joe, you take that deep breath, and you get the re-rack
00:18here. We're not even through the first round. Some teams are set up for a sweep. We get that.
00:22Some teams in some series are set up for a six to seven-game series, which is fantastic as well,
00:26but let's take a look at the FanDuel Sportsbook, Joe, where the odds market is shaping up for us,
00:31starting with the Western Conference. It's no surprise. We just talked about the Oklahoma City
00:35Thunder taking a 3-0 series lead against the Memphis Grizzlies. They are currently, yes,
00:40the favorite to win the Western Conference at a minus-165 price, followed by the Clippers,
00:45who had an impressive victory over the Nuggets last night at a plus-750, the Lakers at an eight
00:50to one number, the Warriors at a plus-850, and so on down the list here. If we're looking at this
00:55odds market, does anything bring to your attention right now where, no, no, no, Donnie,
00:59we need more time to let this settle in. It's basically just chalk at this point for you.
01:05Well, listen, you better take a serious look at the Clippers at plus-750 here because they are the
01:13one team that I think is worth taking a flyer on. If anybody's going to beat OKC, it's this Clippers
01:22team that is built to do that, provided we have a healthy Kawhi Leonard and Norm Powell and, of
01:29course, Harden and Zubach and company there. But this Clippers team, very experienced, very poised
01:34at plus-750. That's your value. Now, whether or not they end up beating the Thunder, who knows?
01:41But I can tell you, if it comes down to Thunder Clippers, what are the Thunder going to be? How big
01:46a favorite there, Donnie? I don't think you're going to get the Clippers at plus-750 to win that
01:50series for sure. Yeah, we get overreactions all the time, right? But rightfully so. It is an odds
01:55market. And I think I always like to say, Joe, is that the odds of a thing that Swartz doesn't
01:59wake up one day and say, roll the dice. Hey, 165 came out on OKC. Or OK, 8-1 came out on the
02:06Lakers. These numbers are there for a reason. They're being bet into. And also, that's what
02:09the algorithm, as we like to say, is talking about. The Golden State Warriors plus-850. The reason I
02:14bring that up is because that's directly with the Houston Rockets in a one-to-one series.
02:18At 21-1 to win the West for the Rockets. I will continue to talk about the Rockets here.
02:24Your thoughts on them being 21-1 now, which as the two-seed, not the two-seed here, they're
02:30more of the seven-seed being priced right now, Joe. Yeah, it's kind of crazy, right? But we,
02:37the Rockets, I kind of put in that same category as Detroit, right, Donnie? That very young,
02:43very, more talent, that well-coached. But, you know, the experience just isn't there. And I
02:52thought it was a great bounce back against Golden State. But now I got to see him win a game on the
02:58road in Golden State here for me to lean that way. They certainly have the talent, and on paper,
03:04and they have a head coach who knows what he's doing. But the problem is, I still think they're
03:10a year or two away from truly contending for a world championship.
03:15Yeah, see what they do and also understand this. Like, we talk about Will John Morant playing game
03:18number four. Questions about Jimmy Butler going down with that hip injury. Jimmy's as tough as
03:22they come. So, the expectations were him for to be playing or returned back to the court as soon as
03:26possible. Hopefully, is the case. You see the Timberwolves down there at a 13-1 price. Just
03:31talked again about the Rockets at 21-1. And then, there's the Denver Nuggets. This is
03:34a few short years ago, winning an NBA championship. So, maybe the best overall
03:40player in basketball. Any feelers for you on the Nuggets at 30? Not to win the title, Joe.
03:46To win the West at 37-1. I just think there's just too many. The defense is not what it has been
03:56in past years. The reason Mike Malone and the GM are no longer there is they couldn't get on the
04:02same page without a build-this roster. There are holes all over the place. And let's face it,
04:08Aaron Gordon or Michael Porter Jr. miss a game or Jamal Murray. They don't have any depth. They've
04:14got no way to overcome any adversity. And that defense, the worst heading into the postseason,
04:20you can't, to me, they're not going to make it anywhere near the Western Conference Finals.
04:26Yeah, the West seemingly like some of those longer shots. Like, oh, you know what? Good
04:29basketball teams. We think they can make a run. We flip it over to the East and it just feels,
04:33and rightfully so, Joe, it's the top two. But it's been that way throughout the regular season
04:38and now the start of the playoff picture here. The Celtics, who aren't the one seed,
04:41they are the two seed, but they are the favorites to win the Eastern Conference at a minus 145 price.
04:46That even with the injury situation at Tatum, where the expectations are he's going to return
04:51sooner than later, but certainly not on the court. The Cleveland Cavaliers, a plus 175 price,
04:56handling their business early in the series against the Miami Heat. Then the drop-off comes.
05:00The Knicks at 13 to 1. The Pacers at 22 to 1. The Bucs at 85 to 1 to win this conference.
05:06The Pistons, who are playing the Knicks well, 140 to 1. Let's start up top. Agreement there for you,
05:12Joe, that it's the Celtics and the Cavaliers by a wide margin. And you agree with those price points,
05:17even if the Celtics are still currently listed as the favorite.
05:20Well, I think anybody on that left side there, Celtics, Cavs, Knicks, Pacers are all legit and can
05:28make a run here. We know that. I think the Tatum injury is interesting to his wrist. I don't think
05:35they need him to beat the Magic in this series by any stretch here, but it's going to be interesting
05:41what is the lingering effects of that wrist injury moving forward. And listen, the Cavs have been the
05:48best team in the East all year long. There's no reason why we shouldn't consider them the front
05:53runner here, but you're the champs until somebody beats you. And we'll see how that works. But I
05:58wouldn't sleep on the Knicks and the Pacers. How many more times do we have to watch the Pacers do
06:02this? You know, they're playing the best basketball we've seen in a long time and they've got experience
06:08now. Come on, Joe. Can I say on the Pistons, 140 to 1, like if they could beat the Knicks in game
06:15number four, away we go with these big tickets here. But it's hard to say because you know the
06:20end of the roadblock is going to be the Celtics and the Cavaliers. But it is fun to see some of
06:26those price points for teams playing quality basketball that might not have the lead in
06:29their actual series themselves. It is interesting. And again, the box with that pedigree too, it's
06:34still Giannis there. If Dane can catch lightning in a bottle, 85 to 1, not even to win the championship,
06:39just to play through the Eastern Conference and get to the title. So we look at those price
06:43points. The Miami Heat, good luck, 700 to 1. We know they probably don't have enough to come back
06:48and beat the Cleveland Cavaliers. But some of these price points are crazy at this point, Joe.
06:54Yeah, no, they're beyond crazy. And it's really, to me, there's four teams with two very chalky sides
07:01there. And there are a couple of sleepers. But in the West, it's interesting what's shaping up there
07:07with the top two teams. Let's get down to the business today. The NBA on a Friday,
07:14a triple header tonight, 7 o'clock, 8 o'clock, and 9.30 Eastern. Three games, big doings. Teams need
07:22to climb back in the series. Teams looking to take a stranglehold on the series, Joe Ranieri. And let's
07:27start with the game that's going to be the late one tonight. That's a 9.30 start. It's the Lakers
07:32and the Timberwolves from Minnesota tonight. If we look at the opening line, the Minnesota Timberwolves
07:37at the FanDuel Sportsbook were a minus two and a half point favorite. That line now sits at three
07:42at the FanDuel Sportsbook. Other books, Joe, as high as three and a half. Just like playoff basketball,
07:48open up at a 2.08 total. That has now dropped to 2.05 and a half at the FanDuel Sportsbook and just
07:55about every other outlet. Let's start there with the price points of the side and the total. Any thoughts
08:00on those opening lines as we head into the game tonight? Yeah, listen, I think advantage
08:06Timberwolves. And I think anything other than looking at the under would be crazy in this game
08:14here, Donnie. We know both of these teams are playing at one of the slowest paces so far in the
08:22playoffs. Both teams have one of the lowest effective shooting percentages as well thus far in the
08:29playoffs. But listen, there's nothing easy going to be given to LeBron James or Luka. Luka knows how
08:37difficult this is going to be. The question to me is really whether or not the Lakers can come up with
08:44enough defense in order to give themselves an opportunity to win this game late. But when you
08:50look at it, I mean, unders, the Wolves at home have gone under in seven of their last eight games.
08:56They've got a ton of bodies they can throw at Luka. And the Lakers, by the way, under in five of their
09:02last seven games. Yeah, I think the first one to 101 wins this game. Take a look at the points
09:11props in this game at the FanDuel Sportsbook. Luka Doncic, very healthy at 30 and a half. LeBron James
09:15at 22 and a half. Anthony Edwards, the Ant-Man from Minnesota, 26 and a half. Are there any players
09:21that you're looking at tonight maybe going over, staying under their points prop? Who would that be
09:25tonight for you, Joe? Well, I got to tell you, I'm going to go off the grid here a little bit.
09:30I'm going to look at Nas Reed over 11 and a half points here. We know that the Lakers have decided
09:37that in a lot of spots, they're going to go small ball here. And that's fine. You can do that. That
09:42means Nas Reed coming off that bench is going to be able to get whatever he wants when he wants.
09:48And, you know, the same thing with Rudy Gorbert. I think he was a big factor in game one.
09:54He had 23 points. He didn't have a great game last game, which I think is why we're only getting
10:0011 and a half here. I don't think the Lakers have an answer off the bench for him. So to me,
10:05I'd look to back him up and over that point prop.
10:08See, I like that. I like where you're going here because I'm always under the notion that like,
10:12you know, the start is what you're going to get out of them. That's why the start is home and away.
10:14But the bench players always play typically better at home. And Nas Reed's one of those guys. If he
10:19gets hot from three point range, he'll just keep shooting and shooting and knocking those shots
10:22down. So it's good looks as opposed to taking sometimes just those superstars or the Batman
10:27and Robbins. Take a look at those B and C items. Maybe they can get you over to the finish line.
10:31If we look at this series as a whole now, because we know first two games ran LA, they split back to
10:36Minnesota. You always want to take care of home court advantage if you're the Timberwolves. But if we're
10:40looking at the price points to win the series, it's relatively close. The Lakers, Joe,
10:44the slight favorite of FanDuel at a minus 118 price to win this series. The Timberwolves had a
10:48plus 100 buying into the Timberwolves more or should this be a Lakers? Because for me, I always
10:53love conspiracy theories. The NBA would love the Los Angeles Lakers to beat the Timberwolves. I always
10:59have a little bit of factor in there for that. I'll take the Lakers minus 118 regardless of what
11:04happens tonight. How about you, Joe? Yeah, you know what? I would look for the Timberwolves early in this
11:10one at home bouncing back. I would look for them in the first half, Donnie, and then I would look
11:16to be able to get the Lakers at plus money or getting a few more points here at some point in
11:22the first half and look to get a nice middle somewhere along the line here because ultimately
11:26it's not I don't think it's going to be a high scoring game. So I think it's going to come down
11:30to the final couple of possessions and the Lakers are very live to win this, but I think we can get a
11:36much better price in game on it. Yeah, let's see what happens tonight. Exciting game again, 930 start
11:42tonight. That's the third of the triple header tonight. Let's flip it back to game number two
11:46on the card tonight. That's an eight o'clock start. That's the Indiana Pacers and the Milwaukee Bucks
11:51home from Milwaukee. The total in this game opened up at 230 and a half, which is very high number for
11:56the playoffs. Still sitting at 230 and a half here at the FanDuel Sportsbook. The side though,
12:00we do have movement. The opening line minus three and a half for the Bucks. That's now up to five and a
12:05half at the FanDuel Sportsbook and many other books listed as well. If we look at this game,
12:10because we just talked about the Lakers and Timberwolves, 1-1. Sure, both teams want to win
12:14it, but not life and death if you lose it. A kitchen sink game, as I like to talk about,
12:18the Bucks can't afford to lose this game. Does that play into your mindset for the Bucks and that line
12:23movement? And also, which side are you looking at tonight? Yeah, well, I love the fact that you have
12:31a Pacers team that's playing unbelievable basketball right now, but that shouldn't come to a shock,
12:35right, Donnie? Because they've been playing ever since after the All-Star break. They've been playing
12:40some of the best basketball all year, and they have been one of the better teams in the second
12:46half, them and the Clippers, in fact. But them winning games at home the way they are and then doing
12:52it in Milwaukee, I think, is a different ballgame. They lost both regular season games here,
12:58you know, when they played Milwaukee on the road. I think having two days off helps Damian Lillard
13:06too as well, who was a little bit rusty here. I think you're going to get a rejuvenated Bucks
13:12team here. I think they are going to have no problem scoring enough. I think they'll get a few
13:18more stops on the road here. Either way, it's very hard for me to look at the over because I do think
13:25if Milwaukee's got any shot to get back in this series, they are going to not allow Indiana to
13:32shoot 55% and anything they want from three. So I think we get a better defensive effort tonight.
13:38I like the under and I like the Bucks to win one. Yeah, we'll see if they can shut it down,
13:43but the tempo should be decent in the game tonight. I want to focus here on the Bucks superstars.
13:47That's Giannis Antetokounmpo for you, Joe, and of course, Damian Lillard. Damian Lillard came back
13:51after that extended layoff there with the blood clots, wasn't all that efficient, but played close
13:55to 30 minutes in that game. His points prop is listed at 23 and a half. They're home. Is this a
14:00buy-in for you on Lillard or you still need to see more at this point? And you're just going to say to
14:04yourself, man, it's Giannis. Like if Giannis gets 35 plus points, a good chance they can win.
14:09Giannis scores 24 for me, the Bucks aren't winning. How do you approach Antetokounmpo and Lillard
14:14tonight? No, you need to listen. Giannis can't do it on his own in this series against this
14:21Indiana team. We've already seen that in games one and two. The first game back, it was great to have
14:26Lillard, but usually when superstars come back after a long layoff, Donnie, the rule of thumb for me is
14:32always fade them in that first game and back them in the second game once they've had a chance to get
14:37their legs under them. And I think that's what you're going to see here tonight. And I think Milwaukee
14:43shoots the three much better at home in this matchup, but if they don't play defense, if they
14:49don't get some stops, it doesn't matter what Lillard or Giannis do. Giannis will be Giannis,
14:55but he's got to get other guys involved in this game at some point. Yeah. You know what the funny
14:59part too is we talk about that Detroit Pistons, New York series has to get a little edgy. This series
15:03is edgy and these two teams can't stand each other, which you'll love to see it. So it adds that intrigue
15:09of what we're going to get now that we flip from the Pacers home to the Milwaukee Bucs. If we are
15:13looking at the series prices, Joe, at the FanDuel Sportsbook to win this series, no question. It's
15:18a heavy favorite towards the Pacers. They won the first two games here. They're a minus 420 price.
15:23The Bucs come in at a plus 330 price. So looking at the outcome tonight, the spread moving from three
15:28and a half to five and a half, the anticipation is a Bucs win. When's the time to buy in on the Bucs or,
15:33Joe, in your opinion? Is it, yeah, it's nice they win, but they can't beat the Pacers in the series
15:38regardless of what happens tonight. Well, again, if Lillard is back to form, and I mean, let's not
15:45forget outside of these last two games, the Bucs heading into the playoffs were absolutely unbeatable,
15:51Donnie. They were doing it defensively. They were doing it offensively. Well, you get Lillard back
15:57here tonight, and if he shows up and shows out, they need this game. And if they do, I think they're
16:03very, very much alive. Don't forget, the series doesn't start until a road team wins.
16:08True. Absolutely correct. And by the way, Lakers-Timberwolves, one-to-one here. We'll see
16:13who takes control of that series. The Pacers and the Bucs, if the Bucs want to extend this
16:17and have a series or just a formality if they lose that game. A third game is going to take
16:22place tonight at seven o'clock down at the Magic Kingdom. Let's talk about the Celtics and the Magic
16:27next, right here on a Friday edition of the Early Line. One game left on the docket tonight
16:34of the NBA Friday night playoff triple header. We hit the Pacers and the Bucs, we hit the Lakers
16:38and the Timberwolves, and now the seven o'clock start down in Disney. 5.53, 5.54 on the rotation
16:44that's the Boston Celtics taking on the Orlando Magic. The opening number in this game was minus
16:48five and a half at the FanDuel Sportsbook. That is now four and a half, and most other outlets
16:53also, Joe, showing four and a half. Another low total in this series. A 198 opening number
16:59still sits 198. Now FanDuel, other books have moved to 197. So let's start with the Celtics
17:06and the Magic, and also the elephant in the room, I guess, will be is, I don't know if
17:10it's official Tatum is out, but this line is telling us Tatum probably is not going to
17:14play, and rightfully so. Why rush him back? So starting with the side itself, Orlando got
17:19beaten games one and game number two back in Orlando. Is there a chance that they can win
17:24this game and at least send this series back to Boston? Yeah, well, very possible. I mean,
17:32we know that Orlando has been much better at home, Donnie, and at least they have made it
17:40somewhat uncomfortable at times for this Boston team, right? So it's not been a cupcake.
17:48The 109-100 win in last game over there certainly proved that that 196 and a half total might have
17:56been artificially too low there. But I still think we're going to get somewhere in that ballpark of
18:03103 to 109 points from Boston. I don't see Boston exploding for 115 or more points. So the question
18:12you've got to ask yourself, Donnie, is if 100 wins this, can we count on the Magic doing it? Can
18:19the Magic actually steal one here at home? And they are a team I'd be looking to back early. I backed
18:25them last game early in the first game in the first half, getting a ton of points. I don't see any reason
18:31not to back them early in this one, too. No Tatum makes it a little bit more difficult for the Boston Celtics
18:40on the road, who have been a little less defensive on the road than they had been at home. But I do think
18:47Orlando is live to cover this, win it outright. But I certainly like the Jalen Brown over points prop, 23 and a
18:55half. I expect him to get the bulk of the scoring like he did in last game with no Tatum on the
19:01court. Yeah, trying to find angles, you look at the first two games. And even though Tatum didn't
19:06play in game number two, we obviously we know the Celtics are a better team than Orlando. That's not
19:09what the focus is. The focus is can the Magic win one game and possibly push it back to Boston for at
19:14least a gentleman sweep, which is probably what would take place. Jason Tatum, I don't think officially
19:18ruled out tonight, but the prognosis and based on the spread as we talked about, he's probably not going
19:23to play. So the betting angles that you take in this game, right? Because for me, you're looking
19:27at sides and the general public's going to say, man, come on now. You saw the Celtics handled a
19:32business game, won game number two, you know, at least by close to double digits, at least they
19:35should be able to win this game by five points going away. I think I'm getting a discount, but you
19:39also look at the betting numbers. This was a five and a half. That's now a four and a half. You look at
19:44the FanDuel Sportsbook directly under their stat numbers, 72% of the bets are coming in on Boston,
19:4977% of the money on Boston. That should be an avalanche that sends it from five and a half to
19:54six and a half to seven and a half, but that line dropped for a reason. So if you are saying,
19:59can Orlando make it a series, they have to win the game tonight because if they lose tonight,
20:03I don't think there's a lot of gumption on Orlando saying, Hey man, let's rise up Joe game four and
20:07force to game five and get on a plane to get waxed in Boston. One more time. This is their game tonight.
20:12So if you are looking for this series to possibly go back to Boston, I do think Orlando must win
20:17tonight, a plus one 64 on the money line, but again, it is a hard sell. They're not as good
20:22Tatum or no Tatum to beat Orlando, but I do think I like the points tonight getting four and a half
20:26with Orlando. Just for the fact is I know I'm going to get the best out of Orlando tonight,
20:31win or lose, which I don't know if I'm going to get in game number four. If they lose Tatum still out
20:35here. I think the magic can keep this close enough. If not steal this game, do I love it? No,
20:39but fading the public in this spot, I think it might be advantageous.
20:43Listen, and Orlando is not built to come from behind Donnie, right? So yeah, their best shot
20:51is they've got to go and they've got to punch first here. Now they have been much tougher at home
20:56than they have been any place else. So Boston didn't exactly run them over this season, especially in
21:03Orlando. So I do think their best shot is to punch first and get out ahead. 101 points is your first half
21:11total and they are getting a point and a half here. I like Orlando on the money line of the first half
21:17would not shock me that they have the lead going into the second half. And then it's a matter of
21:22whether or not they can make enough shots and limit Boston enough to be actually, you know, to get the
21:28outright win. Yeah. You take a look at Jalen Brown too, which I know you'll be high on tonight. Anytime Tatum's
21:34out, it's like, okay, my time to shine. And even though that points number is low for the game, it's under
21:38200. 24 and a half is manageable because if you ask me before the game, if healthy and not in foul
21:44trouble, which you can sort of guarantee at that point, it's like, okay, randomly he's going to
21:48foul out or he's going to get injured. He's going to take at least 15 shots, like at least 15 shots
21:53for Jalen Brown to get the 24 and a half, which means three point shots go down for extra points.
21:56And also the free throw numbers. The interesting part here for me for the magic is it feels like it's
22:00always two players. Like Boncaro is 27 and a half. Wagner is 24 and a half. Who else is going to step up
22:07for the Orlando magic in this game and get 15, 16, 17 points to help out. The one guy I do like in
22:12this game outside of the Orlando magic, let's just say a bench player, always Peyton Pritchett,
22:1613 and a half Tatum's down. That means again, an extra 15 to 20 shots. They're going to be up for
22:20grabs. I always like Pritchett off the bench to get three or three, excuse me, three or more
22:25three point shots made. But if you're looking for more Orlando, who do you take tonight for Orlando?
22:29If you had a points prop, is it just you're going top heavier, maybe an Anthony black who went over
22:33his number who's bumped up from six and a half in game number two to seven and a half in game number
22:37three, those bench players typically again, play better at home. And they better, uh, they they're
22:44going to need a big performance, uh, from them. Absolutely. Like they got in the play-in game
22:49in order to be able to advance to take on Boston here. So yeah, I'm going to need a big bench effort
22:56and you're right, Donnie, you'll get them from home, but it's this total that cracks me up. I mean,
23:01the Celtics team total is 101. If the Celtics win, are they going to, they're not going to score
23:09more than 101 points if they win this game? 88, 78, Joe. They're telling you right now at this
23:14point right now. Yeah. You, and basically what you're asking for is Orlando, just be competitive
23:19and you should get over a hundred points for Boston, but just be competitive and you should
23:23be fine. If you're looking for the series price, Joe minus $20,000 for those Celtics. How do you feel
23:29about that price? Yeah, I might be worth, uh, some, uh, pizza money there. Find something to
23:35couch cushions, throw it on there. I'd feel safe with that. My goodness. Exactly. Maybe get a crab
23:41claw from, uh, Joe stone crab down there. Could be affordable at that price point at this point.
23:45Well, Joe's going to carry you home on the early line. Thank you for joining us today. It's a Friday.
23:49Take us home, Joe. Enjoy the rest of the show.