Terror has bled India once again, this time in Pahalgam, where Pakistani-backed terrorists shot down 26 innocent people, most of whom were tourists enjoying the scenic beauty of the Baisaran meadows
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00:00Terror strikes India again 26 tourists killed in Pahalgaam
00:10Terror plotters in Pakistan
00:14Prime Minister Modi vows to avenge terror
00:20India's spirit will never be broken by terrorism
00:27Terrorism will not go unpunished
00:33Every effort will be made to ensure that justice is done
00:43India explores all options
00:48Surgical strike, Palakot bombing, what next?
00:55What will make Pakistan mend ways?
01:01India united against terror
01:10Hello and welcome
01:11It's been a week where terror emanating from Pakistani soil
01:15Has once again bloodied Indian lives
01:18Pahalgaam isn't just another random terror attack
01:22It was a targeted killing at innocent tourists
01:26Aimed at using religion as a weapon to spread fear and violence
01:31The attacks have not only shattered the facade of normalcy in the Kashmir Valley
01:36But once again raise that perennial question
01:39What will it take to deter the malevolent
01:43Pakistani army deep state backed terror machine?
01:47Today this is the issue that we will take to a round table of expert voices from across the globe
01:54Joining us on this special global round table
01:58Daniel Kaman is former Israel envoy to India
02:02Rohan Gunaratna is one of the world's foremost terrorism experts
02:07Lieutenant General Raj Shukla
02:10Former army commander
02:11Yas Sina, former senior diplomat
02:13Andrew Latham, professor at McAllister College
02:17And Aina Tangan, American Chinese political analyst
02:21Appreciate all of you joining us from different parts of the world
02:24Including of course here in India
02:26I will be posing several questions that have arisen from this terrible attack in Pahalgaam
02:33The first big question
02:34What is the best way now to tackle Pakistani sponsored terror?
02:40Rohan Gunaratna is one of the world's foremost experts when it comes to counter-terrorism
02:45What do you believe is the best way India should deal with groups like the Lashkere Toiba?
02:51India should develop a multi-pronged, multi-dimensional, multi-agency
02:59A multi-jurisdictional and multi-national strategy
03:03India alone cannot fight this threat
03:06And of course
03:08Be specific, be specific Mr. Gunaratna
03:11When you say multi-nation, multi-pronged, be specific
03:16So India itself cannot fight this threat
03:19India has to build a coalition of states that will work with India
03:25Certainly the United States will join India in this
03:29Endeavour
03:30And so are many other countries
03:32Because the Vice President of the US was there when the attack took place
03:39Not only that, I believe that Lashkere Toiba has been constantly mounting attacks against India
03:49And also doing operations elsewhere
03:51For example, the Mumbai attack they staged in 2008
03:55Many of those organisers of that attack, they are still active, they are still operating
04:03So I believe that it is something Pakistan alone cannot fight
04:07And that is why Pakistan should work with so many other agencies
04:13Multi-agency, certainly law enforcement, military intelligence agencies
04:18But the Pakistani state itself, Mr. Gunaratna, is sponsoring these terrorists
04:23That is why it is so important for there to be a response
04:28Where a number of countries will work together with India
04:34To resolve this issue
04:36Okay, so you are saying build pressure on Pakistan through a global coalition
04:40Andrew Latham, Professor at Macalester College there in the United States
04:44Do you believe that the United States for example has the appetite to work together with India
04:50To build this global coalition against terror against Pakistan?
04:54I would say two things, one of which is that this conflict over Jammu and Kashmir
05:01Is deeply embedded in the DNA of South Asia
05:05It is not going to be solved
05:07It can be managed
05:08And that is the best we can hope for
05:10And sometimes it can't be managed
05:12And it spills over into violence
05:13We have had wars
05:14Now we have had this particular incident
05:16The identities of Pakistan and India
05:20As they intersect over Jammu and Kashmir
05:24Are simply irreconcilable
05:26A
05:27B
05:28The United States under this administration
05:31Increasingly has an interest in
05:33Unlike during the Cold War when it sided with Pakistan often
05:37Now the partnership that the Trump administration desires
05:41Is a partnership, a strategic geopolitical partnership with India
05:47How that will touch down with respect to acts of political violence and terrorism
05:53I'm not quite sure
05:54But I know that this administration is throwing its lot in with India
06:00Not with Pakistan
06:02Interesting
06:03You believe that they've completely dehyphenated in a sense India and Pakistan
06:08And the Trump administration will throw its lot with India
06:11Daniel Kaman, former Israeli envoy to India
06:15Israel too, you believe will firmly throw its lot with India
06:19We've already had strong relationships, strategic ties
06:22Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken to Prime Minister Modi
06:25Do you see a global coalition build in any form against Pakistan?
06:29Even, first of all, I'd like to convey our heartfelt condolences to India
06:36To our friends, to our brothers in India
06:39Your pain is our pain
06:41And I'm talking about the people of Israel
06:43Who know what terror is about
06:46Terrorism has always been a topic of joint concern between India and Israel
06:53And I'd like to remind you that in 2014 we already signed an anti-terror agreement between both governments early 2014
07:04The problem with the international arena is its inefficiency
07:12But still, there are instruments that can or should be taken into prospect and being used in a way to go through the motions
07:24Some of them is to go through the motions for building an infrastructure for a later action
07:31And some are really instruments that could be helpful
07:35I'd like to remind you that after 2001, after 9-11, the international community has upgraded the attention to terrorism
07:46On the one hand, on the other hand, the United Nations still does not have a definition of what terror is
07:53So, if you want to mix all of the challenges and the instruments that we have in our hands
08:00As a global family, so to speak
08:05There are instruments and they should be used
08:08But there is one sentence that I heard, I'm following, of course, during the last week
08:13I'm following the terrible tragedy
08:16We've all suffered from in India and Kashmir
08:19And the poor tourists have suffered from
08:22There is one sentence that I heard, which is very important
08:25India will do what India has to do
08:29And this is something that will happen, I'm sure, eventually
08:33And we see the gradual way of using instruments
08:40The water agreement, the border
08:45I guess there will be a diplomatic campaign
08:49Of explaining what India is going to do
08:53But there is, of course, and I'm going back to your question
08:57Of course, Israel will stand by
09:00Right
09:02To fight against terrorism
09:04I'll come to specifics in a moment
09:06But Einar Thangen, you're there in Beijing
09:09And the feeling is, China is the one country
09:12That has allowed Pakistan to get away all too easily in the past
09:16When India has taken its stand against Pakistani-based terror
09:21To the world, to the United Nations
09:24China has bailed out Pakistan on more than one occasion
09:28Why is that so? And will that continue to happen?
09:31Well, let's first discuss the nature of terrorism
09:36It's the killing of innocent people
09:38To induce terror in people
09:41In order to get some sort of gain
09:43Ideological, political, et cetera
09:47So China does not endorse that
09:49Never has
09:50It created and is part of the SCO
09:53Shanghai Cooperation Organization
09:55To battle exactly that
09:57There is a long-standing relationship between China and India
10:02I mean, between Pakistan and China
10:05And obviously, that weighs into factors
10:08The fact is, as your first speaker mentioned
10:11There are long-standing disputes between India and Pakistan
10:16That have prevented any kind of peace
10:18And it has led to all sorts of terrorist acts
10:22For instance, in Pakistan
10:24There were terrorist acts
10:26This year alone
10:27They were not condemned by India
10:30So this idea that it is always one-sided
10:33And that India is always in the right
10:34And everyone else is wrong
10:36I disagree with
10:37It is complex
10:38The fact is, the fact is
10:39I'm sorry to intervene, Ainar
10:41You know, the fact is
10:42What we've seen this week
10:45With innocent tourists
10:47Sitting in a meadow
10:48Enjoying a picnic
10:49And being shot at
10:50Is almost similar to what the Hamas did
10:53In October of 2023
10:55Now, it is terrorism in every sense
10:57I don't suggest you go there
10:58You cannot in any way
10:59You know, the moment we get into this game
11:01Of what about comparisons
11:03That's when the danger comes in
11:04Isn't it?
11:05That's where the coalition
11:06If there is to be won
11:07Against terror falls apart
11:08Are you going to talk?
11:09Or are you going to let me talk?
11:10Please go ahead Ainar
11:11The fact is, there's no difference
11:12Between a terrorist organization
11:14And a terrorist state
11:15If a state is killing women and children
11:17Indiscriminately
11:18And the tens of thousands
11:20They are by definition
11:22A terrorist state
11:23They say that they have
11:24A goal, right?
11:26But there's no difference
11:27Where is the outcry on that?
11:30You have a representative of a government
11:33That is engaged in terrorism
11:35And yet you have the temerity
11:37To start accusing others
11:39Of being equally accomplices
11:42This is nonsense
11:43The fact is, that terrorism is terrible
11:47These animals who did this
11:49Should be hunt down and killed
11:52But you're not going to kill the ideas
11:54For which they have been radicalized
11:57So I would go back once again
11:59To your first speaker
12:00And also to the professor from McAllister
12:04And say these are intractable problems
12:06That need to be addressed as adults
12:09Not by waving flags around
12:11And saying that you're going to do something
12:13Without having an end game
12:15Let me, you know, interesting
12:17Yes, Sina, that's a good point to bring you in
12:19As someone who was a career diplomat for years
12:21Here you've heard
12:22You know, you've got two views
12:23One, these are intractable problems
12:25You in a way can't separate this terror machine
12:28From the larger problem
12:29That the subcontinent has faced
12:31When it comes to India, Pakistan
12:33And there are those who are very clear
12:35What the Lashkar-e-Toiba has done
12:37It's a terror organization sponsored by Pakistan
12:39And therefore you need to
12:41To in some way deter Pakistan itself
12:43Where do you stand?
12:44Yes, Sina
12:45Is there any possibility of a global coalition
12:48Building up against Pakistan?
12:53You're on mute, Mr. Sina
12:55Radhi, we need to tackle it on two fronts
13:01I think it's extremely important
13:03To do what we have to do internally
13:06And then what we have to do with our partners globally
13:09As far as the global efforts are concerned
13:12There was some amount of success as far as the FATF went
13:16But now I think immediately FATF should blacklist Pakistan
13:20Because in my opinion
13:22Kashmir is just the symptom of the disease
13:25The implacable hostility
13:27That the Pakistan Army and the ISI
13:30And I dare say the Jihadis have towards India
13:33Cannot be solved by solving one problem or the other
13:37So I think it's very important
13:39To address the problem that we face
13:43And the problem that we face is terror
13:46Pure and simple terror
13:48So while our partners support us
13:51And we must do things internationally
13:53But internally we have to do what we have to do
13:57And the only silver lining I see
14:00And that is going to be very important in the long run
14:03Is the outpouring of sympathy and love
14:07Of the common Kashmiri people
14:09That is the biggest slap on the face of these Jihadis
14:13And these terrorists and their sponsors in Pakistan
14:17If the people of Kashmir are with us
14:20I think we would be able to confront this menace more effectively
14:26That's an interesting viewpoint
14:28What really you want is complete political consensus
14:32And within Kashmir importantly
14:34To in a way isolate Pakistan as a terror state
14:38General Raj Shukla
14:41What is according to you the best way to deter Pakistan
14:43And this terror machine
14:44We did surgical strikes after 2016
14:47After 26-11 there was diplomatic coercion
14:50Exposing Pakistan's links with terror
14:52After 2019 we had bala code
14:55None of it has deterred the terror machine
14:57So how do you deter it?
14:59So Raji, four quick points in my view
15:03One is that this terror ecosystem
15:06Which is helmed by the Park ISI and the Park Army
15:10On the 22nd of April committed a heinous act
15:14In terms of religious targeting, the communal terror
15:18And the sheer savagity
15:21The declamation of General Asim Munir of 16th April
15:27Was a dog whistle in this act
15:29That is point two
15:31So the Indian state today
15:34Or Indian state craft
15:36Has no option but to respond
15:38And we must respond autonomously
15:41While taking international opinion with us
15:44Here we have begun to act
15:46Even the declaration of the freezing
15:49Of the Indus Water Treaty
15:51Has drawn some extremely nervous reactions
15:54From Pakistan
15:55But even as we widen the response
15:58In my view this time
15:59The response has to be led by calibrated kinetics
16:04And I assert it has to be calibrated kinetics
16:07There are a range of options
16:09A range of domains
16:11A range of choices
16:12Along the escalatory ladder
16:14So we will have to strike
16:16To re-establish deterrence
16:18Because the deterrence
16:19That was established in Bada court
16:21Seems to have worn off
16:22And the end game has to be military
16:25Diplomatic and other levers
16:26To tell the Pakistani state
16:28That listen terror as a tool
16:31In your state craft
16:32Just cannot be allowed any longer
16:35So it will be a host of measures
16:37Which we have begun to take
16:38And this time we mean business
16:40And nobody knows it better than the Pakistanis
16:43Interesting that you speak about calibrated kinetics
16:47You talk of kinetic action
16:49Let me therefore turn to my second question
16:52Should India consider Israel style attacks on terror camps across the border?
16:57Now the right to hot pursue
16:59We saw that with the surgical strikes to some extent
17:02We certainly saw it in Balakot
17:04That India chose in a way to enter Pakistani airspace in Balakot
17:09And while the operation itself may have had mixed results
17:13The Pakistanis claim they suffered no damage
17:15The message was sent out
17:17Is that the way forward?
17:19Let me get Rohan Gunaratna on that first again
17:22Rohan Gunaratna
17:23There is a lot of mixed reaction
17:25Particularly after what Israel has done in Gaza
17:27To whether these operations across boundaries work
17:32Whether they don't
17:33How do you see it?
17:34Can India really consider these kind of targeted attacks on terror camps?
17:38The United States mounted a classic operation
17:44To kill Osama bin Laden who was in Abbottabad in Pakistan
17:49Of course Israel has mounted a number of such operations in Iran
17:55Eliminating the Hamas leader
17:58Eliminating the Lebanese Hezbollah leader in Lebanon
18:04Eliminating some of the Yemeni terrorist leaders
18:09So I believe that the world is moving in such a direction
18:14Where it becomes the norm for governments that can project power
18:20To specifically target and decapitate the leadership
18:25And also decimate the terrorist organizations that mount attacks
18:31I want to add something to the point that was made about Israel
18:36Israel has all the right to mount operations against the Hamas leadership
18:43Membership
18:44Because Hamas mounted a deadly attack in Israel
18:49And Hamas kidnapped Israeli citizens
18:52And until those citizens are released
18:55Israel has all the right to conduct those operations in Gaza
19:00Certainly Israel should
19:03But it has been at a huge cost if I may add of civilians
19:05And that's the danger
19:07The danger is it's one thing to have targeted attacks on terror camps
19:11Whether it's Hamas or whether it is the Lashkar-e-Toiba
19:14But it then results in the monumental suffering of hundreds of civilians
19:19Can the people of Pakistan be made to pay the price for having
19:23For its deep state sponsoring the Lashkar?
19:26The targeting should be precise
19:29The targeting should eliminate those leaders of those terrorist groups
19:34Those members of those groups
19:37This is the direction in which counter-terrorism is moving
19:41They call it over the horizon operations
19:44Where they are able to conduct attacks against terrorist entities
19:49Irrespective of where they are located
19:52We saw that also in Lebanon
19:55Where Israel in fact was able to use technology
19:58To very specifically target the Hezbollah leadership
20:02There in that country
20:03Daniel Kaman
20:04You know you are a former Israeli envoy to India
20:07Now Israel's actions have at times split world opinion
20:10Particularly in Gaza
20:11Because the huge collateral damage that has been caused
20:15The number of innocent lives that are lost
20:18Would you ever suggest that that is what
20:21How would you defend that?
20:23Well it's a little difficult to make the comparison
20:26I know that the comparison is made
20:29And I'm hearing this comparison in the last few days
20:33There are similarities but there are also differences
20:37One of the measures that the terrorists themselves are using
20:41Is using infrastructure, hospitals, mosques, schools as headquarters
20:48And when they are attacked
20:51The human shields are victims of it
20:55Of course nobody enjoys very much hitting or killing civilians
21:01But I would like to look at the details of how those civilians got to be part of hospitals, mosques, schools
21:12As part of the policy of the terrorists
21:14So the terrorists are not you know
21:16Just walking around and waiting for an aim to shoot
21:22They have a whole policy of also changing the narrative
21:26And this is something that I would like to caution
21:29The world opinion is very much for India now
21:33And for a very very good reason
21:35But there is an expiry date if I may say so
21:38To this sympathy
21:40So the action I think
21:42I'm not in a position to give too much advice
21:46To the experienced Indian government
21:48But there is a time of expiry date of this sympathy
21:53And this should be taken into consideration
21:56That's an interesting point you make
21:58Andrew Latham
21:59Do you believe targeted attacks across the border
22:02Hot right to hot pursue
22:04Israel style operations as they are called
22:07Or American style operations to take out an Osama bin Laden
22:10Do they do they do you believe that that is the way the world must move towards that
22:15Identify those responsible for terror ensure that innocent civilians don't die
22:21I think despite the fact that I live in the United States I'm Canadian
22:27And part of the world I grew up in recently
22:31There were according to the Canadian government
22:35Targeted assassinations conducted by the Indian security forces
22:39Against Kalistani separatists
22:42And so my question is
22:44If we globalize this question
22:46What's the limiting principle
22:48Where do you think this is okay to do
22:51Because the town I grew up in
22:54I'm now a visible minority
22:56It is South Asian majority
22:58And Indian and South Asian politics
23:02Are getting played out in that part of the world
23:05In ways I could describe graphically
23:07But I won't at the moment
23:09But then there's this assassination
23:11That took place against a Khalistani separatist
23:14So if we're thinking about counter-terrorism operations
23:19I think we really do need to think about limiting principles
23:23What's okay?
23:25What's legitimate?
23:27What's acceptable?
23:28And what is beyond the pale?
23:30And as a Canadian I think
23:34Assassinating on Canadian soil
23:37Kalistani separatists
23:39Is a little bit beyond the pale
23:41Let's come back though
23:43We, you know
23:44I'm coming back once again
23:45To the Lashkar and to Pakistan
23:47Which is another ball game altogether
23:48Yes, Sina
23:49Over the years
23:50And I can date back to the early 90s
23:52After the Mumbai blast
23:54There was talk of
23:55We've got to take out a Dawud Ebrahim
23:57Every time I'd hear this
23:58The Dawud Ebrahim
23:59Suspect of Mumbai
24:00Is being harbored by Pakistan
24:01I in fact went to the house
24:02Where Dawud lived
24:03In the mid 90s
24:05In Clifton
24:06The fact is
24:07We've not been able to
24:08To take out a Dawud Ebrahim
24:09Does the Indian state
24:10Have the capacity
24:11To do what an Israel does
24:12What the Americans do
24:14When it comes to targeted strikes?
24:16Rajdeep
24:17Rajdeep
24:18I think before
24:19I was the Deputy Secretary of Pakistan
24:21When the bomb blast took place
24:22In March 1993
24:23In the Ministry of External Affairs
24:25I was Joint Secretary
24:26Initial Secretary
24:27For four years
24:28In the Pakistan-Afghanistan desk
24:29After 2611
24:30So I know exactly what Pakistan is capable of
24:34What they do
24:35But just to respond
24:36When a government creates a fertile ground for terrorists
24:41In fact harbors terrorism
24:44Foments terrorism
24:45Insights terrorism
24:47Than what Professor Rohan said
24:49About over the horizon operations
24:51Comes into play
24:52And I think it's extremely important
24:54I think we
24:55Obviously there's a difference
24:57Between what
24:58The situation obtaining in
25:00In Israel and Gaza
25:01And what obtains in this part of the world
25:03However
25:04We certainly reserve the right
25:06To exercise all options
25:08And I completely agree
25:09With Gerald Shukla
25:11About a calibrated kinetic action
25:14And that is what we are trying to do
25:16Calibrate our response
25:17We've already struck
25:19The first arrow from the bow
25:21But when you have governments
25:22And it's not just Pakistan
25:23There are other governments
25:25That there was a mention of Khalistanis
25:27But I'd like to see what happened to the air
25:30The perpetrators of the air and air bombing
25:32I mean there is a country in the West
25:34That is a paragon of democracy and human rights
25:37But harbors and nurtures Khalistani terrorists
25:40So I think we have to be very clear on the action
25:44I mean there are things beyond the pale of legality
25:48And there are things that need to be done
25:50And I'd like to
25:51I like the Pakistani term doctrine of necessity
25:54But however I won't go down that path
25:56I think it's important that in this moment of grief and tragedy
26:01The government and the people of India remain united
26:04In action against an enemy state
26:07A rogue state
26:08A terror state
26:09Can I ask you though Aynar Thangan
26:11If India was to exercise that option of striking terror camps inside Pakistan
26:16After providing verifiable evidence
26:19And that's one of the challenges
26:20Providing verifiable evidence of those groups being involved in attacks
26:24Like the one in Pahalgam
26:26Would Beijing support India or not in your view?
26:30I don't know what you mean by support
26:33They would condemn any action that goes over any border
26:36Because that is crossing a line
26:39You know there's an old adage
26:41Be careful if you fight with monsters lest you become one
26:44And this is the issue
26:46Israel had a terrorist attack
26:48There are issues that led up to that
26:52Which Israel likes to gloss over
26:54But the fact is
26:55Now Israel is the monster that they claim
26:58That they were trying to fight
27:00India is a civilization state
27:03It has been around a long long period of time
27:06It knows that you cannot solve things
27:09Just simply by firing off a bunch of missiles
27:12Or attacking somebody
27:14Declaring war against a country that has nuclear arms
27:18Has no end game
27:20And I am shocked to hear people
27:24Especially responsible Indian former government people
27:30Trying to talk about death of thousands of people perhaps
27:36As if it's something that you're doing with a scalpel
27:40The fact is that within
27:42In preparation for the show
27:45I called somebody in Pakistan
27:46I said what is going on in there
27:48What on earth is happening
27:50And he said look
27:52You know we are trying to raise our children
27:54Get them to school
27:56Deal with an economy that is shattered
27:58We're concerned about whether we will have water
28:00We do not want war
28:02And you
28:04You know all I hear is the bang of the wolves
28:07Saying that it's time to kill a bunch of them
28:09To show them a lesson
28:10Where is the end game?
28:12Where is the end game?
28:13No hold on hold on
28:15You know you are making interesting points
28:17Which are provocative
28:19And I therefore want to take those points
28:21The end game
28:23And the end game brings me to my next question
28:25Which General Shukla you can answer
28:27What other diplomatic and military options are there on the table?
28:31What are the other military and diplomatic options that are there on the table
28:38General Raj Shukla that would make us clear about an end game
28:43We are dealing with a nuclear neighbour
28:45Should we be pursuing the right of hard pursue and targeted attacks on terror camps?
28:50Should we as we have already done pursue the diplomatic options first?
28:54Should we shut off the waters of the Indus Water Treaty
28:56Which again Pakistan says is an act of war?
28:59Or do we look at other military options?
29:01What is the end game then?
29:03So before that Rajdeep, may I just respond to
29:07You know these references of which were made to responsibility and irresponsibility
29:12Yes
29:13Given the heinous nature of what has happened
29:16The sheer savagery on 22nd April
29:19It will be irresponsible for any self, any state not to act
29:25We have been left with no option but to act
29:28And we operate from a moral high
29:30Look at the extraordinary strategic restraint over the years
29:34Parliament attack, Kaluchak, Nagrota, Odi
29:38I mean we know all that
29:39We have exercised extraordinary strategic restraint
29:43There is the Israeli way of war fighting
29:46There is the American way of doing things
29:48There is the Sri Lankan way of doing things
29:50We respect all of those
29:52There have been some successes and there have been some failures
29:55Now given the unique situation that India is faced with
29:59And this is just a response to the Pakistani terror apparatus
30:03Not even to the larger Pakistani state and nation
30:06Which means the architect-in-chief General Asim Muneev
30:10The Park Army, the ISI and the L.E.T. and J.E.M.
30:14They have to be called out
30:16I would sincerely have no hope
30:18But we've called them out in the past
30:19No, no, but the problem General Shubha
30:20We've called them out after 2611
30:22We've called them out of terror
30:23What is the end game?
30:24And so along with many diplomatic levers
30:26Just a minute, is there a hesitation to
30:28Strong kinetic actions which are calibrated
30:30Not to cause civil casualties
30:32Did Bala Court cause any civil casualties? No
30:35Did the surgical strikes cause any civil casualties? No
30:38So this is a responsible professional army
30:41With width and depth which knows what to do
30:44But it didn't deter the Pakistani state
30:46The point is, what is the end game?
30:48It did remarkably
30:49When General Bajwa started talking of geo-economics
30:52When General Jahangir Karamas started telling his officers
30:55That terror has not paid results
30:57It did
30:58That deterrence has now worn off
31:00And this is just the handiwork of a few less than wise people
31:04And the Pakistani state has brought it along on themselves
31:08And therefore, we have the right to respond
31:11And we will respond
31:13You know, in terms of that, Rohan Gunaratna
31:18You're seeing India on an escalatory ladder
31:20We've started with first diplomatic measures
31:23Then we've gone ahead and done what hasn't been done in the past
31:26Decided to put the Indus Water Treaty on abeyance
31:30Pakistan calls it an act of war
31:32Do you believe that this escalatory ladder
31:34Where does it go up till?
31:35The question is, how far can you go when you're dealing with a nuclear neighbour?
31:40There will be tit-for-tat retaliation
31:45Yes
31:46That is inevitable
31:47Of course, the conflict can escalate
31:51And what is important is to maintain a dialogue
31:55Even during this difficult phase
31:58Because you're confronting nuclear power
32:01So, that is why I said that there should be a coalition of states
32:07That will work together with India in this operation
32:10India unilaterally should not act
32:13If India takes unilateral action
32:16What is going to happen is
32:18It will lead to an unprecedented escalation
32:22Where both these countries will suffer
32:25Andrew Latham
32:27You know, often listening to American voices
32:30Or voices from North America
32:32Somehow Kashmir has never been a focal point
32:36As much as, let's say, the Middle East has been over the years for them
32:39So therefore, if India was to take a stand
32:42Exercise its military options
32:44Would America simply stand by?
32:48Well, I'm not sure
32:50The last place I want to inhabit is Donald Trump's mind
32:54I really don't know how he would react to that
32:57I will say this, though
32:59Which is building on the conversation that we've been having
33:04Deterrence requires credibility
33:07And credibility requires that you carry out your threats and promises
33:11And that then leads to an escalatory dynamic
33:14Which we know from the Cold War
33:17When both parties, the US and Soviets
33:22Had nuclear weapons
33:24That kind of checked the escalatory dynamic
33:27But we also know that in South Asia
33:30That escalatory dynamic has resulted in several wars
33:34And the scary thing is
33:37Who, which party
33:40Is going to not use their nuclear weapons
33:44Because if we're talking about 26 casualties
33:49Or a thousand casualties
33:51If people start lobbing nukes at each other
33:53We're talking about way more casualties than that
33:57So that's scary
33:59And the Soviets and the Americans, of course
34:01Were separated by
34:03I mean, they were continents apart
34:05Whereas India and Pakistan are neighbors
34:09But they occupy the same part of the world
34:12And so the deterrence logic
34:15Really kind of concerns me
34:18That something small like this
34:20Not small in terms of the personal effects
34:23I mean, people were killed
34:24But something relatively minor like this
34:27Could escalate very quickly
34:29Because both Pakistan and India
34:31Are trying to maintain the credibility
34:34Of their respective deterrent claims
34:37And that can escalate very quickly
34:39And get out of control very quickly
34:41I like to think
34:43That the fact that the ultimate stage
34:46In an escalation
34:48Is mutually assured destruction
34:50MAD
34:51Using nuclear weapons
34:52That's going to stop the escalatory cycle
34:55But I'm not convinced
34:57That human beings are that rational
34:59Do we therefore have a rational end game
35:02Yash Sina in mind?
35:03You see, that's been part of the problem
35:05We talk of an escalatory ladder
35:07Without quite knowing where it will end
35:09We've started with, for example
35:12Holding the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance
35:14Do you believe that that
35:16Which Pakistan calls an act of war
35:17Do you believe that's the way forward?
35:19Keep putting pressure on Pakistan
35:21Step by step
35:22Rather than getting carried away
35:24By the optics that
35:25You know, we've got to go into Pakistan
35:27Have a military operation
35:28That's the only way you can seek revenge
35:30A lot of it is media
35:32Social media driven
35:34I think, Rajdeep, that's why we talk about
35:37A calibrated response
35:39And India is a very responsible country
35:41We are aware of the nuclear sabre rattling
35:44That our neighbour does
35:45From time to time
35:47We are also aware of the consequences
35:49Of MAD
35:50Mutually assured destruction
35:51However, we need to once and for all
35:55Stem this faucet
35:57Or turn off this faucet of terrorism
36:00Because obviously the Pakistan army
36:03And the ISR are either incapable of doing it
36:06Or obviously do not want to do it
36:08Because they use it as an instrument of state policy
36:10So I think the people of Pakistan
36:12I'm sure realise what is happening
36:14I mean, what the Pakistani government
36:17I mean, the most popular leader in Pakistan is in jail
36:20Their judiciary is thoroughly neutralised, compromised
36:24I mean, I think we are in a situation where we are dealing with a failed state
36:28An almost failed state
36:30And I think we need to calibrate our responses
36:33I, for one, am not saying that we should go in immediately
36:36And knock them off militarily
36:38But I'm sure there will be some kinetic action taken
36:41Because this was a grievous attack
36:43This is not the first of its kind
36:45You mentioned the Indus Water Treaty
36:47I was the co-agent for India
36:49During the Kishanganga arbitration
36:52And when the interim measures were passed
36:54By the Court of Arbitration in The Hague
36:56In 2012-2013
36:59So I think the Indus Water Treaty was negotiated
37:02Any treaty is negotiated in good faith
37:05And when there is trust on both sides
37:08But as I see it
37:09That even in the technical aspects
37:11Where the Western rivers are concerned
37:13Pakistan has forever been raising objections
37:17To run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects
37:20Whether it's Baglihar
37:21Whether it is Ratle
37:24Whether it's Kishanganga
37:26You name it
37:27Tulbul, navigation project on the Jhelam
37:29So I think the time has come
37:31And we have given notice to Pakistan
37:34It's an ultimatum
37:36That we are keeping this treaty in abeyance
37:39Now, if they feel
37:40And we have not stopped the water
37:42I don't think the government has ever said anything
37:46That will stop the water
37:47But I think what we are going to do
37:49Is impose costs on Pakistan
37:51And Pakistan must realize
37:53That they cannot expect business as usual
37:57If they continue to sponsor terrorism against India
38:02I think that's why it's important
38:03And if Pakistan feels
38:05That by suspending the modalities of the treaty
38:10It's an act of war
38:11Then so be it
38:12Let's try and tackle it the way it is
38:14But I
38:15What I'd like to say
38:16Is that the government of India
38:17Is taking a very calibrated
38:19Nuance position at present
38:21Right
38:22Now the fact is
38:23Let me
38:24We try and resolve it as best as we can
38:27But if the other party is just not interested
38:29I mean it was hilarious when I heard
38:31That they want to keep the Shimla agreement in abeyance
38:34So that means what?
38:35What does that mean?
38:36That the line of control doesn't exist
38:38I mean that is
38:39Well that's probably what it means
38:41That the line of control does not exist
38:43But I find it hilarious
38:44I mean I don't know which Mandarin sitting there thought of
38:47Because in any case Pakistan is in breach of the Shimla agreement
38:51Every time, all the time
38:52Okay
38:53So I think if they suspend the implementation of the Shimla agreement
38:57No sweat off our back
38:58Okay, let me then come to the next question
39:00Is the world ready to isolate Pakistan?
39:03Daniel Kamen, former Israeli envoy to India
39:06You've said very clearly on this show that
39:08Israel will stand shoulder to shoulder with India
39:10Am I correct?
39:11That if India in its national interest
39:14Taking the moral high ground
39:15Takes on the Pakistan terror machine
39:18You will, that the world, Israel will stand with India
39:22Am I correct?
39:23Israel will definitely stand with India
39:26Because we have a common goal
39:28Not only the two of us
39:30But many other players in the international arena
39:33Those who see terror, define terror
39:37Know what terror is
39:38And it's not a minor thing
39:40I'm glad that in Canada
39:43And in the United States
39:44And nowadays
39:45There are
39:47There is a possibility to talk about
39:50A far away continent
39:53In the Middle East
39:54Or in Southeast Asia
39:55Where there is terrorism
39:57But we feel what terrorism is all about
39:59And let me add
40:00I'm personally a victim of terrorism
40:03It's not a minor thing that you're talking about
40:06Isolation of Pakistan is something else
40:09I think that the end game
40:11Pakistan is a member of the international community
40:14It has rights, it has obligations
40:17But there is a long going campaign
40:21So many events have happened in the last few decades
40:26Where Pakistan acted like a rogue state, a failed state, to name it
40:32So Pakistan should be put on
40:35The world should be put on
40:38So the question
40:39The world should be put on record
40:40I take your point
40:42I'm sorry, you know
40:43I've got limited time
40:44I'm sorry, Pakistan
40:45My point is pressuring Pakistan
40:47Right
40:48Through famous instruments
40:49Isolating is something else
40:51Okay, you pressurize Pakistan
40:53Not necessarily isolated
40:54Aina Tangen
40:55I want to come back to you
40:56Because, you know
40:57In the past
40:58I repeated this at the outset of the program
41:00India has tried to put pressure on Pakistan
41:02Through the global community
41:04Through FATF
41:05To try and make sure that Pakistan
41:07Is forced to abide by certain international rules
41:10And the Pakistani state
41:12Deep state has not done that
41:13Has the time come to put even greater pressure
41:16And if so, how?
41:17And would China actually help in putting that greater pressure
41:20Given China's leverage with Islamabad?
41:24Well, leverage is not the way the US uses it
41:28China has an active trade relationship
41:30And a long friendship with Islamabad
41:33That goes back and votes in the UN, etc.
41:37But China is not in favor of terrorism
41:40It goes against everything that it stands for
41:42In terms of the Belt and Road Initiative
41:44Everything that's trying to create a settled global trading environment
41:51And you can see that quite clearly
41:53What's been happening with Donald Trump
41:55And their reaction to it
41:56They've asked that all tariffs be removed
41:59Not just some
42:00They're speaking on behalf of the world
42:02Now, I don't want to be, you know, parsimonious
42:05And say that China's all good
42:06And everyone else is all bad
42:08I'll leave that to others
42:10But I do very clearly
42:12China is not in favor of any terrorist act
42:15They'll condemn this one
42:16There's no way in which anyone human
42:19Can be siding with these animals
42:21As they go about doing these things
42:23And the same thing with Hamas
42:25But it does not mean that you want your state
42:28To become a terrorist state
42:29To engage in the very activities
42:31Which you are, you know, were the victim of
42:34And this is the danger that is happening in this world
42:37This kind of over-the-horizon stuff
42:39It's nonsense
42:40You're talking about unilateral action
42:43You know, if Pakistan says, oh, in Blachistan
42:46We think that the Indians are backing that
42:50Does that mean that they should have the right to go in
42:52And start assassinating the Indian leaders?
42:54Let me give General Shukla a response to that
42:58Because this is the second time you've raised Balochistan
43:00In this program
43:01General Shukla, you want to respond to that?
43:03My Chinese guest saying, look, Pakistan could turn around
43:06And say India is involved in terror activities in Balochistan
43:09They have no proof, that's the problem
43:13But Pakistan also carries the veil of deniability
43:20Every time there's a terror attack
43:21You've seen that
43:22In 26-11 we caught Kassab
43:24Otherwise Pakistan would have denied even their role in 26-11
43:28Now, even now in this case
43:30They have the veil of deniability
43:32General Shukla
43:33What's the end game?
43:34What is the end game?
43:35And what's the end game?
43:36Why don't you respond General Shukla?
43:38Yeah, so I'll just make three very quick points
43:40And then I'll come to the end game
43:42See, we are not
43:44We are responding to a grave provocation
43:47This is not unilateral
43:49Please sense the mood in India
43:5288% of Indians are for this
43:55For a military action
43:57Look at the local Kashmiris in Pahlgaam
44:00What they are saying
44:01Their livelihoods have been destroyed
44:03It is an uptick in the sense that you have targeted tourism
44:07Which was never done
44:08I've commanded a division in Baramullah
44:10There would be an encounter going on 600 metres from Gulmark
44:14And Gulmark would be in absolute peace
44:17Please understand what's happened
44:19The local conditions
44:20Two, what is this nuclear argument?
44:23Was the strategic rationale for nuclear weapons
44:27To use them as a shield for terror?
44:29And just keep going on about terror?
44:31I mean, let's drive some sense into this debate
44:35Third, what we must persuade Pakistan more than anything else
44:39Is to adhere to a very simple democratic norm
44:43Which is let General Arsene Munir and the Pakistani military
44:47Submit to political control
44:49And all these terror acts will cease
44:52This is all common sense
44:54Which, I mean, any reasonably reasonable person would
44:59And the last point
45:00Do you want to respond to the Baruches?
45:01Do you want to respond to the Baruches?
45:02Just one minute, please, one point
45:04This option that we are exercising
45:06As Mr. Sinha was suggesting
45:08They will be maximized for lethality
45:11Suitably de-risked
45:12And reasonably precise
45:14So they are not just
45:15You know, it's not wild jackbooting
45:17Or it is a military on the rampage
45:20This is a professional military
45:22Which is submitted to political control
45:24Right
45:25So these options will be wetted
45:27So I am at the end of the day saying
45:29It's a very grave provocation
45:31Indian statecraft has no option but to respond
45:34And that's what we are doing
45:35As for this Baruchesthan bit
45:37There is a problem
45:38And that's exactly the problem
45:39Which has driven General Arsene Munir
45:41Through these indiscreet actions
45:43Baluchesthan is breaking
45:45Look what's happening in KKP
45:46What's happening in TTP
45:48Because it's on this
45:50Fiziparous boil, Pakistan
45:51This is possibly a distraction
45:53And if that is the way Pakistan is going
45:56POK will roll over to us
45:58So you please look inwards
45:59India is a strong, stable state
46:02Look at our GDP
46:03Look at yours
46:04Please, I don't want to signal any hubris
46:07But this is a state with which you have
46:09Messed around for too long
46:11It is certainly not indiscriminate military action
46:16It is a grave provocation
46:18It has to be responded to
46:20I have just a couple of minutes left on the program
46:23We don't have a Pakistani guest on this particular round table
46:26We'll get them in future and ask them all the tough questions
46:28But I just want to leave you with one one line to each of you
46:32Is all out war really an option?
46:35One line answers
46:36Because that for some is the final end game
46:39And is fearful because war at the end of the day
46:42Does result in huge casualties
46:44But is all out war really an option?
46:47Rohan Gunaratna
46:48Quick answer
46:50India should be very measured in its response
46:53Because at the end of the day
46:56India and Pakistan will be neighbours
46:59So whatever actions it takes
47:01It must take
47:03By considering the long term impact and implications
47:07Of its response
47:09Okay, Andrew Latham
47:10Is all out war really an option between two nuclear neighbours?
47:13All out war is not desirable
47:16But sometimes wars break out
47:19I can think of the first world war, the second world war
47:21Nobody really wanted those wars to happen
47:23But the dynamics were such that escalation resulted ultimately in war
47:29So I'm fearful
47:31I don't think either party is interested in all out war
47:35Especially in a nuclear context
47:37But I'm not sure that it can be avoided
47:41Daniel Kaman, very quickly
47:43All out war to be avoided at all costs?
47:46Should be avoided because it won't happen
47:49Because there are responsible leaders
47:51In the responsible country of India
47:54And I'm sure they know what to do
47:56And they will do what they have to do
47:58Aynar, all out war in the region
48:02The last thing you want to see?
48:04It's unthinkable
48:06And you have to remember that this is a dispute between two countries
48:09That would affect the rest of Asia
48:11The nuclear fallout from any of this stuff
48:14Would spread poison around the world
48:16And especially to its neighbours
48:18And I hope people will consider that
48:19Before they start talking about killing people
48:21Okay, I'm going to leave it there
48:23I've heard all the voices
48:24Yash Sina, very quickly, ten seconds
48:26The end game is sending the Pakistani army to the barracks
48:33The Pakistani army has a country
48:36Most countries have an army
48:37That should be the end game
48:39And as far as the all out war
48:42Obviously that is not the desired option
48:44Okay
48:45But I think the Pakistan army has to be reined in
48:48Pakistani army
48:49General Shukla, ten seconds
48:52This is a seminal moment for Indian statecraft
48:55We will respond with wisdom, resilience and fire
48:58We will do all that in our interest
49:01War or not is for the Pakistanis to make a choice
49:03Okay
49:04I appreciate all my guests joining me
49:06It's been fascinating getting voices from India
49:08And across the world on our global round table
49:11Really appreciate you all taking the time off
49:14To discuss what is an extremely sensitive
49:17And important issue at the moment
49:19Thanks so much for joining me
49:24Okay, we've heard from all the guests
49:26It's time for my take
49:28The challenge remains for India
49:30How does one deter the Pakistani army state
49:34To stop sponsoring terror against our country?
49:38India has shown exemplary strategic restraint over the years
49:43Diplomatic coercion in 2001 after the parliament attack
49:47A similar approach of strategic restraint taken by Manmohan Singh after 2611
49:53Neither of those approaches achieved full success
49:57Mr. Modi then took a more kinetic approach
50:00With the surgical strikes after Uri
50:02And the balakot strikes after Pulwama
50:05That too hasn't quite worked in deterring
50:08Pakistan's deep army state
50:10Fact is, Pakistan's established stated policy
50:14Remains to bleed India with a thousand cuts
50:18Even if this policy has only ended up
50:21Darkening Pakistan's own future
50:24And render it almost a failed state
50:27It also means that the hope that
50:29People to people contact between the two neighbours
50:32Would have helped over time reduce antagonisms
50:35But even that hope has been slowly extinguished
50:38There is sadly now little or no space left
50:41For even the concept of Aman Ki Asha
50:44Or the hope for peace
50:46Truth is, we seem to have run out of options
50:49When dealing with Pakistan
50:51The world therefore must begin
50:53By in its own way
50:56Pressurising Pakistan
50:58Labelling it as a terror state
51:00Even as India must make sure
51:02That Islamabad pays a heavy price
51:05For its malevolent actions
51:07What that price is
51:08Is still uncertain
51:10But the cost must go surely
51:12Beyond media optics
51:14And high pitch rhetoric
51:16In TV studios
51:17To tangible consequences
51:19On the ground
51:20Think about it
51:22Stay well
51:23Stay safe
51:24Jai Hind
51:25Namaskar