BetOnline has given the Commanders playoff chances that are relatively low... But do we think they're locks?
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00:00bet online went through every single NFL team and assigned a likeliness for each team to make the
00:06NFL playoffs. So Washington, where would you have get like, so at first glance, when I saw this
00:12number, 57%, I went, wow, that's actually kind of low. But then you think about it, the best team
00:18in, in the NFC, the defending Superbowl champions, Philadelphia had an 80 some percent chance of
00:23making it back. Then the next best was Detroit. And then there were a couple other teams that,
00:28that had a higher percentages, Tampa had a higher percentage because they play in a bad division,
00:32but 57%. And when you first look at that, you'd go, that's disrespectful. That's, you know,
00:37maybe a little bit low for them, but apart from the review, it makes sense. We do the math every year.
00:42It's about half the teams that make the post season don't the following year teams that don't do, I
00:47mean, Washington did it. They went from worst to a 12 win team, more wins than they've had in 30 plus
00:54years. Right. So you look at some of the teams that are returning, whether it's Detroit, Minnesota was
00:5814 and three, which I forgot about. I had them as good. I don't remember them being 14 win good,
01:01but there they are green Bay. You just do the math. And you know, if, if the NFC West has a soft
01:07out of division schedule, you could get two teams to the NFC West that maybe bumps Washington out of
01:11there, any regression with a more difficult schedule, et cetera. So 57% is kind of right where
01:16you'd see to me. I think a lot of people would say that's actually not too terrible. That, that makes
01:20sense. So I'm guessing it's based on the odds that were assigned and there's all kinds of data used in
01:24that putting that together. Like I would just top of my head have said 70%, but as you said,
01:31now you have to recalibrate everything because if so, you know, if Philadelphia is 75, then
01:36Washington has to be adjusted accordingly. But what you're getting at and what you're asking me
01:42is actually what we're going to make our poll of the day today on Grant and Danny. You can go vote
01:46right now on the 106.7, the fan Twitter account. Grant and Danny's poll that they presented by
01:51metropolitan, moving and storage, local, long distance, residential, commercial, three decades
01:56of best in class service and experience. How would you juxtapose like your thoughts on their
02:02likeliness to make the playoffs with the 57% given to them from bet online? Do you think they have a
02:08better chance than that? Do you think that's right, right around where you would say, or do you think
02:12they have less of a chance than that? I would have said statistically a better chance than that.
02:16Just looking at the landscape of the NFC, the fact that Philly's better than them in the division,
02:22probably. You can convince me in the NFC North that Detroit or Green Bay are right there with
02:27them in the conversation or better. In the NFC West, everyone's still on San Francisco. I'm not.
02:32I think they're going to come backwards, which means probably staying put from where they were last
02:37year because they crashed back down to earth. But, you know, the Rams are still really good.
02:41I just have a hard time seeing in a three wildcard conference, Washington not being one of those
02:47going into the season. So I would have said closer to 70% than 57. So if I'm voting on our poll on
02:55Twitter, I'm saying I think they have a better than 57% chance. But I also say that knowing a
03:00regression is very possible, that it's very, very hard for Jaden Daniels to repeat what he did.
03:05And if their schedule is brutal, it's some of the metrics you can look at. It's one of the five
03:09hardest schedules in the sport. And that's where I'm at. To me, my first glance, I went, oh, that's
03:14probably pretty low. Then upon further review, I actually think it's right on. I think it's
03:18actually pretty good. There's a better chance than not that they go to the postseason, right?
03:22But that doesn't factor in anybody's jump forward. Doesn't factor in, you know, I'm just making this
03:28up, but Seattle gets right in their first year with Mike McDonald. They won 10 games. Could they win
03:3211? You know, are the Rams reloading? Are they good enough? You start to, you do some of the math
03:38within your own division, within your own conference. You could be good. I actually
03:41think they're going to be pretty good, but you don't get the Hail Mary. You don't get
03:45the, uh, that one lucky break. And instead of a 12 win team, we look at them as a quote
03:49unquote disappointment that wins 10 games against a more arduous schedule. And you
03:52could be one of those teams that won 10 and didn't get in. I don't think it's crazy for
03:56them to be good. Have this still be a step forward and not necessarily make be an NFC
04:01championship caliber team again. What teams could be the surprises in the NFC this
04:05year, a la Washington one year ago. And I don't think the draft is overly relevant
04:12in this because other than Shador Sanders going to say new Orleans, there's not a
04:17team in the top 10 expected to get a quarterback that's in the NFC. So the
04:21balance of power of really quality quarterback play that's AFC dominant is
04:26only going to tilt further that way. If Cam Ward is as good as he's supposed to be
04:30because he's going to an AFC team at one. Here are my candidates, Ben Johnson and
04:33Chicago. They were, maybe they do this coming year, what they were supposed to
04:37do last year. They were, they were everybody's darling. And they went five
04:39and 12 and you know, they were around 500 till that hail Mary. And then they
04:43got broken. I think they're a great answer. They got outscored by 60 points
04:48last year. Here's the problem for them is they're in the toughest division in
04:51football. Now I think they're going to be way better, but way better from five and
04:5612. It could be eight wins. It could be nine and eight. If they're nine and eight
05:00though, they're knocking on the door of the wild card, but they're in a division
05:04where the Detroit lions won 15 games, went 15 and two and were the NFL leader
05:09with a plus 22 scoring differential. The Vikings were 14 and three. Now the
05:15lions won 15 games and had to win in week 18 or the Vikings won the division.
05:18How crazy is that? A plus 100 scoring margin for the Vikings. The Packers were
05:2411 and six, 11 and six would have won the NFC South that would have won the NFC West.
05:30It would have, you know, knocked on the door in the NFC East. It would have won
05:33two of the divisions in the AFC and they finished a distant third, but they were
05:38plus one 22. I think Detroit will get a little bit worse, but it's still a 11 or
05:4412 win team, Minnesota. It's hard to imagine them going 14 and three again,
05:49especially if they have a rookie quarterback in McCarthy. So they'll come back a
05:53little bit, maybe from 14 wins to, I don't know, nine or 10 wins. Green Bay at 11 and
05:58six feels sustainable. I think they're a division champion caliber team with Jordan
06:03Love, ideally, you know, a year further removed from some of the injuries he's
06:07dealt with and getting better, but the bears are just in a loaded division, but
06:11that's a really good answer because they address their offensive line. They threw
06:14money at the guard position. They have two new starting guards. Caleb Williams is
06:18working with one of the better offensive minds in the league. And if you trust in
06:22Ben Johnson scheme, it's not going to look like Detroit's in one year, but maybe he
06:26could work some magic with last year's number one overall pick at quarterback,
06:30which means he's ultra talented. Throw a couple other teams at you. The Atlanta
06:33Falcons. I know it's their easy punching bags because you could do this every year
06:37with them, but four games they lost last year by less than a score, including an
06:42overtime loss against Washington in a must-have game. They're now a little bit
06:46more settled. The quarterback, you would think Cousins was injured at times a
06:50liability for them last year. If you buy Penix and again, that division stinks,
06:54right? The best team is, is Tampa. Who's fine. So you got to really be convinced.
06:59I think in Michael Penix to go with Atlanta because I'm not sure that their
07:03defense has been fixed. Now, maybe they're going to draft somebody early to
07:07get sacks. They got zero pressure again. Last year is one of the worst pass
07:11rushing teams in the NFL. And their defense was really, really bad. They
07:14love 423 points. Just as an example, the bucks allowed, you know, 380 last year is
07:20like a 50 point difference between the top two teams within a game of each other at the
07:23top of that division. Maybe Atlanta could make the playoffs, but if they do, I just
07:27think they benefit from the South. Like I don't see a Tampa 10 or 11 win season and
07:32Atlanta also winning 10 games and being a wild card, right? You track that like to
07:37me, one of those two teams wins 10 games with seven losses and gets in and the
07:41others probably eight and nine. It's just a bad division. It's a bad division. Yeah.
07:45Cause I don't, I don't think I think New Orleans can't get out of their own way.
07:47I don't think Carolina is ready for primetime. How about this one? You just talked
07:51about Michael Penix betting on a quarterback. If you really like Penix,
07:55you're going, what if dot, dot, dot, if Penix is good, the Falcons could be good.
08:00What if Sam Darnold plays well in Seattle? I think most people are anticipating. He
08:05leaves Minnesota. Bye-bye, Justin Jefferson. Thanks for the time. TJ Hawkinson. See
08:10you later, Aaron Jones, that offensive line, which is awesome. Kevin was in my rear view
08:16and he's going to become Sam Darnold again. Midnight strikes turns into a pumpkin. We're
08:20back to the Jets, Sam Darnold, the 49ers, Sam Darnold. What if he plays like he did last
08:24year, which he collapsed at the end of the year, big games didn't go his way, but it
08:28was well over 30 touchdowns and no, barely double digit great for 15 games. He was an MVP
08:34candidate for half of a year. And for the season, he was a pro bowl type quarterback. If he plays
08:39like that, then he's better than what Gino gave him last year. And you got, as you said,
08:44a defensive minded coach and Mike McDonald, you mentioned it earlier. They went 10 and seven
08:48and barely missed one in the division. They were even with the Rams and the win loss
08:51column. Could Seattle be a sneaky 10, 11 win team without a doubt. And everybody's on San
08:58Francisco. You and I are not, but again, you still have a core of, I don't get that.
09:03They went six and 11. I know they got terribly injured last year. I think it's that they lost
09:07their final four games. They were really like six and seven. And then they kind of punted as
09:11they were banged up, but they've lost everybody. Like, what am I missing here? Some of the decisions
09:17they've made this off season, I guess people just love Brock Purdy more than I do.
09:21Well, it's, it's Shanahan. It's Purdy. It's McCaffrey. It's, you know,
09:24so they're banking on 17 games from McCaffrey. Okay. Which I'm not.
09:28No, I don't think that's possible. But if you say like two years ago when he was the OPOI,
09:33he was the player of the year on offense in the league. They were a Superbowl contender.
09:37If you think he plays in 16 games this year and is a 1500 yard back who catches 70 balls again.
09:43Okay. That's a good point. Now they're good again. I just don't think that's a thing.
09:47I don't either. I don't think guys that are older and off injured become older and uninjured.
09:52I just don't see it working out that way. I think their window may have closed.
09:55There was also rumors they were going to trade Brandon Ayuk, which I haven't heard in a few
09:58weeks. Is that over with? There was the talk for the Trent Williams was at odds with them
10:03this off season. And maybe that they were butting heads a little bit that he could be moved
10:07if they really wanted to create some space for Purdy. I guess those things are not happening.
10:12I mean, if Ayuk's there and Trent Williams is there and McCaffrey is healthy now, at least
10:19Purdy, who I do think is largely, I think he's fine. He's good. Top half to lead QB, but he
10:24is a beneficiary of a really good situation. I mean, he could still thrive with that supporting
10:28cast. Yeah. And, and Shanahan pulling the strengths. So the other draft of my guy, Ricky
10:32Pearsall last year, I think he's going to be good. I'm with you. Arizona, eight, nine
10:37last year, frisky pain in the butt. Again, this is, this is for you. I saw your immediate
10:42reaction. It's a Murray thing for you. And I think it's a Murray thing for a lot of people.
10:45Yeah. But I guess my point here isn't that, that I'm thinking Arizona is your championship
10:48contender or they're, or they're really good. These, the, the, the reason I bring up
10:52Atlanta, Arizona, uh, you could pick maybe another couple that fit into this. It's not always
10:57that they, you would say straight up on a, on a, you know, lab reports. They test better
11:02than Washington. They could be a worse team in almost every way, but benefit from who
11:08knows what the fact that they were frisky involved in a lot of games last year, they
11:11could be a 10 game winner. What does that mean? Benefit from who knows what, what do you
11:14mean? Like, uh, uh, you get a good scheduling quirk. You get the hell Mary this year, you
11:19know, like you get the, you get the benefit of, of, of luck. You get the belt, the ball
11:23bounce on your side. You end up playing the team that has their starting quarterback
11:26that's injured or whatever, like Washington got in 2020, Arizona was okay. I'm not, I'm
11:32not saying I saw the second coming of the Kurt Warner Superbowl, Arizona Cardinals, but
11:36they were, they were pretty frisky under Jonathan Gannon and a company. And there are some nice
11:40little pieces, uh, to go for Kyler Murray. I mean, obviously Marvin Harrison, uh, their,
11:44their tight end just signed one of the richest tight end deals in human history. They got some
11:49pieces that are intriguing. So let's say San Francisco stinks and you know, the, the, the
11:55rest of the division doesn't run away with it. You, these guys beat each other up. They
11:58could be the team like Seattle that won 10 games last year. They could be the 10 win team.
12:02Not necessarily that they're great. And I'm writing home saying, I just saw the, the, the
12:05best team in the NFC. I don't think that's the case, but when you're talking math at the
12:09back end of the post season, that's kind of what's at risk here. And that's why I think
12:12that percentage for Washington to bring it back to that part of the conversation is probably
12:16right on Washington could be good. I think they will be, they could also regress because
12:20of the challenges of the schedule and second year sophomore slump for quarterbacks, whatever
12:25you want to call that. I think that's all on the table. They could still be moving forward,
12:29but not have the same kind of year and somebody else gets the, gets the benefit, gets the
12:33breaker. The Cardinals have sneaky, had a pretty good off season too. Just looking at who's
12:38coming, who's gone since last year. Um, so they went out and they brought in Akeem Davis
12:42Gaither at linebacker from the Bengals. Um, notably, uh, Jacoby Brissett as a backup quarterback
12:49comes over from new England, Josh Sweat, one of the pass rushers from the Philadelphia
12:53Eagles got paid pretty well to come to Arizona. Galeas Campbell, who just never retired.
12:58The ancient one. Stick aside. He's got to be 41. He's close to 40. If he's not 41, I thought
13:04he was 38 or 39, but it would, that would make more sense. Cause how could you keep playing
13:08at 41? It's not like he's my quarterback. That's what I'm saying. He's a defensive lineman.
13:12It makes no sense. He was 38 this past year, but 39 this year. So, uh, so he's 50 is what
13:16you're talking about. Um, so he goes from the dolphins to the Cardinals, just signed
13:20with them. Uh, they made some decent moves. They did not lose a ton either. You know,
13:25when you look at some of their free agents that have moved on, it's not like they lost
13:29pro bowl talent. You're right. My initial reaction when I go, I don't see it. It's number
13:34one. It's a Kyler Murray thing, but number two, I do think that's a good division. I think
13:39the Rams are good. I just made the case for Seattle possibly being frisky. Um, I don't see
13:44San Francisco necessarily. Like I have the last few years as an NFC championship game
13:48type team, but for whatever reason, the industry really likes them. So if San Fran's good, then
13:53we're saying that's three competitive division title type teams, or at least 10 ish win type
13:58teams. So that makes life a little bit harder. Uh, I think Marvin Harrison will be better in
14:02year two than year one. I did not love his rookie year. Remember I liked Malik neighbors
14:06more than him. I still feel good about that, but the people that were sold on him, I think
14:11they saw what they wanted to like, he's very talented. He's gonna be very good, but he's
14:16got some work to do still. Well, he's not the finished product. Maybe that a lot of people
14:20suggest that he would be, they need another weapon. I'd like to see them get another receiver
14:23because Michael Wilson and Zay Jones are just okay. If you had Harrison and one other piece
14:28for Murray, that would be awesome. They can run the ball with James Connor and Trey Benson
14:31as well. Um, they have a 90 catch tight end. Trey McBride is a star. Trey McBride just signed
14:37a huge extension too. He's one of the best tight ends in football. One of my favorite
14:40players in the league. He's awesome. So it's a good little offense. And then you brought
14:44in Calais Campbell and Dalvin Tomlinson to upgrade the D line. Uh, I think Davis Gaither is going
14:50to start for them at linebacker. Sweat's going to start on the edge. So they'll have four new
14:53starters in their front seven. That's pretty crazy. Yes, it is. Uh, and a defensive minded
14:57coach you've mentioned and Jonathan Gannon. So him and the coordinator, Nick Rales will have
15:02some pieces to work with. Yeah, I guess I'm talking myself into them being a 500 kind of team.
15:07And now you're a couple bounces away, but if we're playing like Washington definitively
15:13better than or not, I would still throw Arizona into the Washington's better than
15:17no doubt about it. And I would take, if they matched up, I take Washington, but that's not
15:21always the point when it comes to the post season, right? Cause not every, not everyone's
15:24playing the exact same schedule. They, they could, they could benefit where Washington then
15:28a week, the Washington's got Kansas city on the road. Arizona's got, you know, broken San
15:32Francisco with half their roster hurt.